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John Morales

@johnmoralestv.bsky.social
12K followers 136 following 572 posts

ClimaData® Certified Broadcast and Consulting Meteorologist (CCM) Campaign Co-chair at @climatepower.bsky.social Hurricane Specialist NBC 6 Miami & Noticias SIN, Dominican Republic BSc & Member of the Board of Trustees at Cornell | MSc at Johns Hopkins

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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
2026 will avoid the distinction of the least active Atlantic hurricane season. As of 5 am ET Saturday, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), a metric that includes storm strength and longevity, stood at 18. While this is only 17% of normal for the date, other years were less active, including 1983.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
This verifies NHC's forecast. Higher readings possible west of there I'd surmise.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
bsky.app/profile/wxma...
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Indeed, the 8 pm ET advisory lists max sustained winds at 110 mph—a Category 2 hurricane. A WeatherFlow station in Gulf Breeze, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 83 mph (133 km/h) and a gust of 97 mph (156 km/h).
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Hurricane Isaías has lost symmetry on final approach to near Destin, Florida. Wind shear aloft has (finally) kicked in over the last 3-4 hours and is weakening it. The last two recon passes through the eye show lowering windspeeds. It'll end up a high Cat 2 at landfall around 9 pm. Still impactful!
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Hurricane Isaías will make landfall around the time of hi tide in the western Florida Panhandle. Tides get springier this weekend (King Tide), so it's good to miss that. However, hitting at low tide would've been better for all concerned. See NHC's forecast inundation graphic. More on @nbcmiami.com
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
If it comes in early AM Saturday, it would be low tide! This chart for Pensacola Beach Pier
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Major 🚨 Hurricane Isaías: Just after the 8 am (ET) NHC advisory posted, the U.S. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission showed flight level winds just under 125 knots, which translates to 120 mph sustained surface winds. Record hot Gulf of Mexico temperatures are feeding rapid intensification (RI)
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
"Preparations should be rushed to completion as the weather will go downhill quickly today." — National Hurricane Center Isaías is on the verge of attaining major hurricane status.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Isaías is strengthening and visible imagery shows the hurricane's eye is starting to clear. I'll be on the 5, 6 and 7 pm news on @nbcmiami.com
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Reposted by John Morales
Jared Rennie @jjrennie.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Don’t do this. Lots of people in Asheville have “Post-Helene Stress Disorder” and the last thing we need right now is to scare people. Thank you @johnmoralestv.bsky.social for calling this out.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
“Even in an overall hostile environment, there are bound to be stretches of days in which […] opportunities materialize for stronger storm formation.” www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/j...
nbcmiami.com
John Morales: Forecast shows fewer hurricanes during 2026 season, but don't get comfortable
Behold, the “super” El Niño! Ahem…a forecast for a strong El Niño. But if it’s “Mighty” Casey at the Bat, then we’re going to win the game! Right? RIGHT?!
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
A tropical depression has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to become the Atlantic season's first hurricane.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
NHC 2 pm Tue post on #Invest92L indicates a 100% chance of development. More modeling (for what it's worth these days) points to rapid intensification into the season's 1st hurricane, fed by all-time hottest Gulf water temperatures made 300x-800x more likely by climate change. (@climatecentral.org)
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
September 2026 was the warmest one on record for the Contiguous U.S. according to PRISM climate data. If confirmed by NOAA it would be the first time there will be three back-to-back record months JUL, AUG, SEP — a concerning first thanks to climate change. (via @climateguyw.bsky.social)
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The community is undoubtedly concerned that cuts have had negative consequences in data acquisition. But a scientific study on that has yet to appear. A growing number of forecasters are flummoxed by the constant model flip flopping and downright missed forecasts. Is there a brain drain issue too?
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Weather forecasting for North American mid latitudes is worse today than just a couple of years ago. I see it, and, anecdotally, complaints about model guidance from colleagues in my profession are multiplying. Empirically, the American GFS model’s skill is back to 2019 levels 📉
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Hoy expandí sobre los peligros del remanente del antiguo #HuracánPolo en CNN en Español con Rebeka Kelly, tanto sobre suelo mexicano como en estados del sur en EE.UU. Además hablé del contexto climático, necesario en todos estos eventos modernos. (bilingual captions)
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
🫳🏼 "My hand was getting slapped less and less." 😆 www.cbc.ca/radio/whaton...
cbc.ca
Some TV meteorologists want to talk about climate change. Not everyone wants to hear it | CBC Radio
Broadcast meteorologists usually talk about the weather, but as the planet warms, many weather presenters feel they must talk about climate change. It can be a tough balancing act — and it can have pr...
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
“Starting Saturday evening and continuing into Sunday morning’s high tide, the ocean poured into urban cities up and down the coast, breaking a recent record for flooding in Fort Lauderdale.” — @miamiherald.com You ain’t seen nothing yet. youtu.be/tPbOSetsFw4?...
youtu.be
King tides impact businesses in Hollywood
YouTube video by WPLG Local 10
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I enjoyed this CBC interview for the What On Earth podcast with @johannawagstaffe.bsky.social, which also includes @climatechris.bsky.social. Recorded in New York during Climate Week. You can get through my [pretty introspective] part in the 1st six minutes. www.cbc.ca/listen/live-...
cbc.ca
© CBC/Radio-Canada 2026. All rights reserved.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Florida public university rankings in a free fall. No one is surprised. www.yahoo.com/news/us/arti...
yahoo.com
Most Florida universities fell in national rankings, per U.S. News & World Report
Of the eight Florida universities recognized nationally, five dropped in the U.S. News & World Report’s annual national rankings. Two universities climbed and one stayed steady. Florida’s two top-25 p...
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"Clouds don’t form in sinking air, much less clusters of thunderstorms that can become fledgling tropical disturbances. Atmospheric stability puts a cap on hurricane development." — a short article for @nbcmiami.com www.nbcmiami.com/weather/hurr...
nbcmiami.com
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season was expected to be slow. But not dead
The 2026 El Niño has set a record as the strongest ever recorded. That very warm water in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean is changing weather patterns around the world.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
It peaked at 70 mph and is now weakening.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Tropical Storm Fay could make a run at reaching hurricane strength southwest of the Azores. Prior to 1950 records are sketchier, but the last time an Atlantic hurricane season went past 11 September before its 1st hurricane was in 1941 (1907 & 1914 had 0 hurricanes—Dr. Phil Klotzback, CSU).
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
mi·soth·er·y /mɪˈsɒθəri/ (mi-SOTH-uh-ree) 1. A hatred, contempt, or deep-seated disdain for non-human animals. 2. An ingrained cultural attitude or philosophy that views animals as inferior, disposable, or radically separate from humans F*ck ‘em all. Which f*cks us www.nytimes.com/2026/09/16/c...
nytimes.com
Trump Administration Moves to Gut a Core Endangered Species Protection (Gift Article)
An internal memo reinterprets the law so that only the intentional killing of animals, not collateral harm, is illegal.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
“The shift by the Environmental Protection Agency would complete the administration’s erasure of the most consequential climate policies…” 20 months of “damn the torpedoes” is not just exhausting, but reckless and cruelly dangerous. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/13/c...
nytimes.com
E.P.A. Will Erase Limits on Climate Pollution From Power Plants (Gift Article)
Generation of electricity is the second largest source of carbon dioxide and other planet-warming gases in the United States.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Not arguing any of that. Just posting a fact which could’ve been a contributing factor
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
It happens to be what I do these days—forensic meteorologist.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Interview: “Absolutely wonderful! i’m a science/math/data person and i’ve heard much of this from the health sciences sector. This view from another sector was welcome and (sadly) confirmation. Great data & insights from someone with knowledge and experience.” joycevance.substack.com/p/live-with-...
joycevance.substack.com
Live with Joyce Vance and Meteorologist John Morales
A recording from Joyce Vance's live video
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
The oligarchy is dripping in toxic petro-masculinity 🤢 www.nytimes.com/2026/08/31/u...
nytimes.com
Do D.E.I. Bike Paths Exist? The Trump Administration Says Yes. (Gift Article)
The administration has revoked funding for bike paths, and encouraged removing some. A cycling advocate said it is playing on the idea of “that dork on a bike.”
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Remember Paris?: “The world has failed in its goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times, the United Nations said.” Now, “dangerous and catastrophic climate change is here.” www.nytimes.com/2026/09/02/c...
nytimes.com
U.N. Says World Will Miss Its 1.5-Degree Climate Target (Gift Article)
It proposed a new goal of limiting the “overshoot” of rising temperatures and eventually figuring out how to undo the temperature gains, a highly uncertain path.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Is your weather app worse than it’s ever been? I know why, and talked about it tonight on Civil Discourse with @joycewhitevance.bsky.social
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Updating to show 48-hour rainfall totals through Tuesday morning. Just under 3 inches (~75 mm) of rain fell in Juncos, home to tributaries of the Río Grande de Loíza system, such as the Valenciano and Gurabo rivers. The remnants of Dolly have departed, and localized convection is all PR will now see
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Rain is expected today, Monday, in PR & DR due to trailing moisture behind the remnants of Storm Dolly. However, 24-hour rainfall totals recorded up to this morning undoubtedly leave much to be desired, especially in the watersheds that need it most. Preliminary data via @cocorahskyjc6.bsky.social
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Reposted by John Morales
NPR @npr.org · 31/08/2026
An NPR investigation found that people in the U.S. are dying from heat much more often than official counts show. We explore the reasons why — and how lives can be saved. n.pr/4hZ8XID
n.pr
NPR spent 2 years tracking deaths from heat. We found a staggering hidden toll
An NPR investigation found that people in the U.S. are dying from heat much more often than official counts show. We explore the reasons why — and how lives can be saved.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Let's gooooo! ☔
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Although two inches of rain won't end the drought, I suspect there will be flooding. This potential "weather whiplash" is typical in a warming world. When it's dry, intense droughts quickly develop. But when it rains, it rains harder.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Total accumulated rainfall projected by NWS ensemble modeling has increased with the passage of the vigorous remnant of tropical storm Dolly, with up to 2.5 inches (60 mm) in the Rio Grande de Loíza watershed (where the Carraízo dam is located).
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Reposted by John Morales
Joyce White Vance @joycewhitevance.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
In the post-DOGE era, permanent cuts make us all vulnerable to extreme weather. We need to listen to the scientists. joycevance.substack.com/p/five-quest...
joycevance.substack.com
Five Questions with Meteorologist John Morales
About that climate change that isn't happening...
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Now that Tropical Storm Dolly has dissipated, let’s focus on how much rain its remnants might bring. Ensemble modeling from NWS indicates approximately 1 inch (25 mm) for the Río Grande de Loíza watershed (where the Carraízo reservoir is located), and others. (2nd graphic from @wxmanms1.bsky.social)
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
That map is accurate. In this USACE proposal, the municipality that would see the most homes elevated is Homestead. Kendall is similar regarding it's low-lying exposure to the surging seas
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
“With at least two feet of sea level rise expected by 2060 and an average elevation of six feet above sea level, thousands of Miami-Dade properties are at risk of being flooded either multiple times a year or permanently.” (paywall with no access to gift 🔗 sorry) www.miamiherald.com/news/local/e...
miamiherald.com
Miami-Dade wants to raise thousands of homes, offices above floods. Here’s where
Army Corps plans to raise homes and businesses in Miami-Dade.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
There will be a partial eclipse of the Moon overnight. Best viewing will be just before midnight (Eastern & Atlantic time zones) through 12:30 around maximum eclipse when 96% of the moon will be in Earth's umbra, leaving a sliver of bright white moonlight reflecting back to Earth.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
As I mentioned this morning, the "cone of uncertainty" cuts off on the left because it only extends to 72 hours (Saturday). Officially, NHC projects that the newly named Dolly will dissipate before reaching Puerto Rico, leaving behind—hopefully—a system that brings rain but no significant winds.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
This depression or storm is expected to form today. However, I anticipate a short-lived system. Conditions in the Atlantic east of the Caribbean will become hostile to the survival of any tropical cyclone starting tomorrow, Friday. I remain hopeful that its remnants might bring rain to the islands.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
For Puerto Rico and USVI to get rain from #Invest96L, it would need to avoid strengthening—or strengthen and then be broken apart by wind shear and dry air. As for a major storm event for Puerto Rico, this system doesn't look like a likely candidate 🙌🥳🎉. Stay tuned as peak season approaches.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
The hope is that both systems (Invest92L, center, and Invest94L, right) will pass over the Antilles, including Puerto Rico & the Dominican Republic, and retain enough moisture to generate rainfall. Tropical disturbances are part of the annual precip budget in the islands. None expected to be strong.
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Before our feeds fill up with eclipse pics, best to post this for tonite's Perseid meteor shower peak. Expect a dozen meteors per hour from suburban locations, half that from light polluted urban skies, 2 dozen or more from darker rural skies. No moon tonight! (@skyandtelescope.bsky.social)
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
"Opportunities in Europe include London-Dublin, Europe’s busiest international air route; but also Barcelona-Ibiza," and a dozen others. "Island routes could be particularly well suited to electric aircraft because passengers have few alternatives to flying." travelmole.com/news/electri...
travelmole.com
European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) sees electric aircraft transforming short-haul Europe - TravelMole
Electric aircraft could soon make some of Europe’s shortest flights cleaner, quieter and less dependent on jet fuel, with routes of less than 500 kilometers emerging as the most likely early market. A...
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