John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 15/07/2025For all the headlines, nothing changed with overall spending trends. 3398
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 12/07/2025Good illustration of how much the Texas grid has changed in just 6 years. yellow = solar; purple = batteries; dark green = wind; blue = gas; brown = coal; light green = nuke via @gridstatus.io 1415
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 08/06/2025Interesting dynamic in power sector is that cost of building solar gen keeps declining, but the value of an electron during sunny hours in sunny regions is also falling. The cost of gas-fired gen is rising quickly, but so is value of dispatchable power. Batteries will determine how this plays out. 2142
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 04/06/202543 million Americans have left college with no credential. That’s the higher-ed crisis. Just as important as getting students to college is connecting them with institutions that have a track record of success, offer credentials of value, and provide adequate student support. 1102
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 04/06/2025Kudos to Texas Legislature for passing an energy abundance agenda while sidelining populist anti-electron bills that had momentum. Passed: large load screening and management, nuclear fund, energy waste reduction Failed: firming requirements, 50% gas gen mandate, wind/solar permitting hurdles 1122
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 03/06/2025There’s an ongoing debate about whether able-bodied adults should be required to engage in productive work to qualify for the social safety net. Most Americans support some level of personal responsibility for at least some programs. Reasonable people disagree where that line should be drawn. 1/8 1112
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 03/06/2025The Shoe Bomber caused every shoe thereafter to be searched by TSA causing significant delays and friction. I fear Operation Spiderweb is going to cause the same with shipping containers. 040
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 02/06/2025India’s fertility rate has fallen from 6 to 4 to 2 in successive generations. The world isn’t just undergoing its greatest tech transformation, it’s also living through its most dramatic demographic shift, two trends that are of course deeply related. 070
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 27/05/2025The recent price cuts for GLP-1s are a great case study in how the third-party payor system contributes to high drug costs. Drugmakers typically launch new products at a “modestly high” price, desiring to avoid insurer resistance and encourage broad patient uptake. 1/4 290
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 27/05/2025I’ve seen a lot of dumb stuff in my investing career but the “arb” that exists in publicly tradeds buying BTC when ETFs already exist is as dumb as anything. That it’s levered vs unlevered doesn’t justify the premium. The leverage is low. You can lever an ETF yourself. There's no barrier to entry. 161
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 25/05/2025There's an A/B test on the future of the Democratic Party with Brandon Johnson in Chicago and Daniel Lurie in SF. 262
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 25/05/2025Remember the PIGS? They got their deficits under control. 10 year bond yield: Portugal: 3.10% Italy: 3.61% Greece: 3.34% Spain: 3.21% US: 4.51% 1115746
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 24/05/2025This is a positive step, but the nuclear industry’s biggest hurdles are technical and economic, not regulatory. Government policy must address those if we're to have a nuclear rebirth. 160
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 24/05/2025"Instead, we have the worst of both worlds. Congress is afraid to go against the President’s wish list, and can be held hostage by a handful of House members representing special interests. The budget becomes the GOP version of an everything bagel." --Scott Sumner 0120
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 12/05/2025One way to think about the US funding pharma R&D for the whole world through the enormous premium we pay for pills is that it is foreign aid for high- and middle-income countries paid for by American patients. 0101
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 03/05/2025How many times have I heard a GOP member of Congress say something along the lines of "the US doesn't have a revenue problem; it has a spending problem" or "the current level of spending is unsustainable" or "out-of-control deficit spending is the greatest threat to the country." 0330
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 02/05/2025Imagining the counterfactual had DOGE done the job like a turnaround CEO would have: spend the first 100 days on a listening tour and rapid assessment and then come out with a comprehensive plan of reforms, cuts, and vision for the future. 1211
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 23/04/2025Kudos to Rice University for using its resources to boost undergraduate enrollment by 30% this decade. Sadly, it's the only top 25 school currently pursuing a significant expansion in access. 0242
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 13/04/2025I have zero ties to the city but the rebound of SF seems an underreported story, especially given the amount of attention the decline got. 1285
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 13/04/2025This is the fuel mix in ERCOT (Texas) for the past week (top) vs same week 4 years ago (bottom). Solar generation is in yellow. Solar barely registered in 2021; today it accounts for roughly 50% of generation during the day in the shoulder months. data via @gridstatus.io 1014154
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 07/03/2025If the purpose of tariffs is to reshore industry, companies need very high confidence in the permanence of the policy. If the purpose is to raise revenue, they must stay enacted. If the purpose is to negotiate policy, there must be a specific ask. 1233
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 27/02/2025Today the Senate passed a resolution against the methane emission fee. This is a mistake. Many large NG producers quietly support methane regs because they know the industry is stronger in the long term if viewed as responsible stewards of the environment. 1/4 5232
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 27/02/2025This is A+ philanthropy: Find a field neglected by other funders (nursing ed) that has broad benefits (economic mobility & health outcomes), identify the constraint (shortage of faculty and space), do strong due diligence, fund it at scale, and give while living. www.philanthropy.com/article/bill... 1328
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 24/02/2025The hot trend in private equity is rolling up companies that provide local services. With limited safeguards to curb market power, this will likely result in higher prices for consumers across various industries. 1/n 1225
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 21/02/2025Kudos to the DOJ. Defending Medicare and Medicare Advantage necessitates vigilance against those who seek to defraud these programs. 061
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 19/02/2025The # of K-12 students in US is set to fall 12% by 2041, but that masks large state variation with several to fall by 30%+. That, itself, masks wide variation at local level, as some districts to lose 50%+. Navigating this will be an unprecedented political & financial challenge. 0122
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 17/02/2025Indiana, facing some of the highest healthcare costs in the nation, is pursuing legislation that would cap prices at large, non-profit hospitals to 200% of Medicare. Those who don't comply would forgo their tax-exempt status. That seems right to me. 1185
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 16/02/2025It isn't just renewables; inflation is hitting all energy infrastructure. Duke just proposed building 2 gas-fired power plants in Indiana by 2030 for $3.3 bln, a stunning $2236/kw. For comparison, a facility in MI came on in '22 at $1000/kw and another in IL in '23 at $1083/kw. 75514
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 15/02/2025As a tech normie, I thought ChatGPT was fascinating when first released but struggled to find a use case. A little over 2 years later, I’m surprised how much LLMs have improved and become indispensable to my work flow, mostly at the expense of Google. 3162
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 08/02/2025NIH is right to replace actual overhead reimbursement with fixed or capped indirects, though >>15%. Today, univs can pass along most overhead so there's little incentive to cut costs. The govt pays it. The system should encourage cost discipline; now it's the opposite. 5162
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 07/02/2025This article illustrates the most common flaw in evidence-based policy movement. If the program is selective about admission, the comparison set can't be the broad population. Smarter, more motivated, better behaved inmates might have lower recividism even without this program. 1112
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 07/02/2025Phrases never uttered: - "Without carried interest deduction I wouldn't have started my PE firm" - "Without Qualified Small Business Stock Exemption I wouldn't have started my tech firm" - "Without Roster Depreciation this pro sports team wouldn't exist" get rid of all this crap. 1279
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 06/02/2025Comprehensive student support ranks among the most cost-effective programs to improve economic mobility, nearly doubling grad rates of community college students. Today Arnold Ventures announced a $35 mil grant and partnership to scale it to 15 colleges in NC. www.insidehighered.com/news/quick-t...insidehighered.comN.C. community colleges launch program modeled on CUNY ASAPThe North Carolina Community College System is launching NC Community Colleges Boost, a new program to move students into high-demand careers in the state. The program is modeled after the City Univer... 0202
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 06/02/2025A single aircraft fueling hose delivers more joules of energy per minute than a nuclear power plant. The energy density of liquid fuels is incredible. fueling hose: 1900 L/min * 35 MJ/ L = 66.5 GJ/min nuke: 1000 MW = 1000 MJ/s * 60 s/min = 60 GJ/min 1121
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 05/02/2025To get elected mayor of Chicago you have to promise to do things you have no ability or resources to do and then voters understandably get mad when you don't do them. 071
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 05/02/2025NYPD allows retirement as young as 40 with full pension tied to salary + overtime and then is surprised it can't keep officers, has an overtime crisis, and needs very high taxes to fund the whole thing. The system is delivering the exact results it was designed for. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/04/n...nytimes.comOfficers Flee as N.Y.P.D. Confronts Its Billion-Dollar Overtime ProblemThe Police Department has already blown through its overtime budget halfway through the fiscal year as departures rise and the agency struggles to recruit. 0183
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 03/02/2025Contrary to the prevailing narrative, energy has become more affordable over time, especially of late. 0132
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 02/02/2025The US has more leverage against any single country in a trade war. But other countries have more leverage if they act collectively. The huge downside risk of a broad tariff war is if it reorients the economic and political order from West vs anti-West to the US vs rest of world. 517830
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 13/01/2025The Gartner Hype Cycle represents the stages of maturity often seen in new ideas. The criminal justice reform movement fits this pattern perfectly. 081
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 12/01/2025Texas has 31.5 GW of clean power generation (15.8 solar, 10.6 wind, 5.1 nuke) right now, which is more than double the total electric load (15.6 GW) now in California. data via GridStatus.io 2102
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 12/01/2025My prediction is that 2025 will be the year that the increase in the costs of homeownership via interest rates, insurance, maintenance, and property taxes translates into broadly lower home prices. 0121
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 10/01/2025States hate allocating $ for prisons. It doesn't win votes. Thus, many prisons are at breaking points w/r/t staffing, safety, infrastructure and programming that lead to inhumane conditions for staff and inmates and is counter to rehabilitative. Took a crisis but kudos to GA for finally addressing. 1121
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 09/01/2025Many social programs are presented as investments that will pay for themselves via better outcomes in the future. But is it true? What if govt funding was tied to outcomes rather than inputs? We at Arnold Ventures and others tested that model in a first of its kind project. 1/12 22511
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 08/01/2025The growth of Texas suburbs over the past decade shows the massive demand people have for housing that is both affordable and near urban job centers. 281
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 08/01/2025Voters get furious today when gas prices rise even though it's only 2% of consumer spending and US is a net oil exporter. In 1977, gas was 4% of spending and we imported 45% of supply. Carter's reelection didn't stand a chance when oil prices tripled after Iranian Revolution. 062
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 06/01/2025The difference between tax cut proposals and pay-fors is that, during the process, the former always increases in scope while the latter always gets narrowed. 071
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 05/01/2025To be successful, DOGE must prioritize programs that have both very large expenditure and are rife with waste and abuse. Medicare Advantage sits squarely in that intersection. 2141
John Arnold @johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social · 04/01/2025While each prez was in office: Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) Trump +277% Biden -63% Oil and Gas E&P ETF (XOP) Trump -57% Biden +92% Investing isn't easy. 2183
