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John Roberts

@johnactuary.bsky.social
3.1K followers 86 following 221 posts

Worn out and retired actuary after 40 years in the profession.

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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Totality off the coast of Menorca, with photography of the corona hampered by the sun dropping into some hazy cloud a few minutes before. But what a stunning sunset - that alone was worth the trip! That’s four for me - next stop Tangier on August 2nd next year.
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
I really ought to be reading and commenting on Lady Hallett’s report, but I’m afraid I’m a bit sidetracked at the moment… #Ashes
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
Anyone still interested in mortality trends? The latest age standardised update from CMI show that 2025 continues to trend well below 2024, currently around 1.6% of a full year's mortality lower. So barring a sudden and very severe flu season, we should comfortably end the year with a new low.
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
I guess the question is Steve, for how much longer is it appropriate to keep increasing the SP above both earnings and prices, given the huge cost and impact on generational inequity?
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 10/08/2025
Good morning from Bristol! Just a few of the balloons on this morning’s spectacular 6am ascent. #BalloonFiesta
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
It’s not obvious to me that the reduction is any more than the long term trend (excl the COVID years) would have suggested. Or am I missing something?
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 04/05/2025
Blimey. Greek inflation must be steep…. 2.30pm ↙️ 5.15pm. ↘️
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
I've only got three years to look at, but my perception that it's been a remarkably fine early Spring is certainly borne out by my solar generation - up a third on the average of 23/24.
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
No, but there is a recording of Rodrigo’s Guitar Concierto de Aranjuez by John Williams which has no comparison imo.
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 08/02/2025
Just back from 17 days in Vietnam and Cambodia and amongst the highlights were sunrise at Angkor Wat, a week cruising the Mekong, and Ha Long Bay.
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
I don't think the statement hat in normal times earnings should rise faster than CPI or 2.5%. The evidence suggests the contrary. researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CB...
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
I disagree with the comment that in normal times wages should rise faster than 2.5% or CPI. The evidence just doesn't support that. researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CB...
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
Cape Town, 🇿🇦 last month.
Having a cocktail with Mrs R with Table Mountain in the background.
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Clickbait buzzword #94. "Tiny". As used here in relation to Bristol Airport, which has c10m passengers a year.
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
I wonder where they are all stored….
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Azeem commented on the old site that he gets no engagement here. Can someone add him to a list that will alert people to the fact that he is now on the friendly no bot no porn site?
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
A great juxtaposition of posts from you know where which perfectly demonstrate why so many are now using this place more than the other (including me).
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
Because this came through on my feed and I didn’t realise it was a reply.
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
But as ActuarybyDay notes here, just being as good as 5 years previously isn't really any great shakes - in pre-pandemic times it would be quite unusual, given rapid mortality improvements we've seen over many years. 2/
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
I'm wondering how significant the "continuing trend" is. Most of the fall was in the two weeks highlighted here. Which as you say would result in a one off step change, as you might expect. Since then any variation doesn't appear out of line with the volatility we saw before the change.
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 07/10/2024
An early morning boat ride, and I’m now marooned for the next 12 hours…#Steepholm
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 05/10/2024
In 2019 we started walking Offa’s Dyke footpath, and yesterday finished at Prestatyn Beach, 177 miles from the start near Chepstow. A fantastic adventure, with some beautiful scenery on the way. Highly recommended!
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 14/09/2024
Indeed, and unlike the insurance market you don’t need to worry about health, where you live etc. that will influence the cost. It just starts getting paid at state retirement age (unless you decide to defer it.)
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 13/09/2024
Without understating the alleged crime here, I really don’t understand why a relatively minor celebrity’s prosecution is more important than major world events.
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 10/09/2024
Why is increasing the TL over both prices and earnings a problem? Over time, it will burden then current taxpayers with an ever increasing cost as a proportion of GDP. 4/
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 10/09/2024
Here we see how the link to price increases only in the 80s eroded the state pension in relation to earnings, but has since recovered to some extent since the TL was introduced. (Note that the lower (pre 16) SP is often accompanied by second state pension income.) 3/
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 10/09/2024
Even before next year's increase, this table shows how the cherry-picking aspect of the #TripleLock means the BSP inevitably increases faster than both prices and earnings over time. 2/
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 10/09/2024
Today's earnings figures means the #BasicStatePension increase next April will likely be 4%, almost twice the current CPI inflation rate, continuing the pattern whereby it increases faster than both prices and earnings over time. 1/
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 08/09/2024
Since you mention it, meet Torres.
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 27/08/2024
So the budget will be painful, eh? I'll vote for the "hard pressed driver", who has seen a 15% reduction in the real cost of fuel over the last 15 years, to shoulder a share of the pain. Each p increase in duty adds about £0.5Bn to the Treasury coffers.
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 21/08/2024
Had some recent experience of mortality, when Smudge (top) died of a heart attack last week. Does that count? 😿
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 21/08/2024
I’ve been lying dormant on here for some months, but given comments on another network that it’s becoming more active here I’m going to start posting again. Might be more cats than actuary stuff though just to manage expectations.
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 21/08/2024
Duma says welcome. His owner has just reinvigorated his account given comments on the network formerly known as the bird chirp that it’s starting to get quite busy here.
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 31/10/2023
Similar (except mine doesn’t even have the positive of Clare in it.) All joined this month and 0/0 followers/followed. Hopefully they will not generate any traffic to their sites and will stop in due course.
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 22/10/2023
The main objection from the government is that there is already an existing scheme, and the proposal, apparently, is to offer an enhanced compensation for COVID-19 vaccine cases.
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 22/10/2023
Covid-19 Vaccine Damage Payments Bill - Hansard - UK Parliament Here's the link. Opening remarks below.
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 22/10/2023
Quite a robust response from Maria Caulfield, as seen in the example below. It was also the day for Chris Chope to put forward the Vaccine Damages Bill, so definitely a day for the anti-vax muppets.
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John Roberts @johnactuary.bsky.social · 14/10/2023
First post here, so I thought rather than something serious I’d post a holiday snap from our fortnight touring New England in the Fall.
Two positive COVID tests
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