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joffre.bsky.social

@joffre.bsky.social
220 followers 424 following 1K posts
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Yeah. Given the polls I think there was alwas an undercurrent of “with a PQ government” that went unstated, but it wasn’t explicit. By the end the pitch was “give us the balance of power and we’ll stop the PQ’s referendum”, so not running as a Scandi-style bloc or anything like that.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Even QS takes the “we want to form government” line, but this election did feature the PCQ explicitly asking voters to give them the balance of power. www.lapresse.ca/elections-quebecois…
lapresse.ca
Parti conservateur du Québec | Duhaime met tout son poids dans la balance (du pouvoir)
Voulez-vous des puits de gaz de schiste ? Un troisième lien sur l’île d’Orléans ? Des lois pour mater les syndicats, le tout agrémenté d’un peu de privé en santé et garni d’un référendum bloqué ? Pour Éric Duhaime, on peut y tendre en votant pour le Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ), qui va détenir, espère-t-il, la balance du pouvoir.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
What they find is that rent control leads to a ~1%/year attrition in the *existing* rental stock. If controlled rents don’t keep up with real estate prices, owners look at their outside options: condo conversion, owner repossession, demo and redevelopment. 1%/year of those, that has real bite!
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Where that kind of policy can bite is not necessarily in new construction, but in maintaining the existing rental stock. Diamond et al (2019) is great evidence on this, they study a policy that capped rent increases at 7% a year. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/…
aeaweb.org
The Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from San Francisco
(September 2019) - Using a 1994 law change, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in the assignment of rent control in San Francisco to study its impacts on tenants and landlords. Leveraging new data tracking individuals' migration, we find rent control limits renters' mobility by 20 percent and lowers displacement from San Francisco. Landlords treated by rent control reduce rental housing supplies by 15 percent by selling to owner-occupants and redeveloping buildings. Thus, while rent control prevents displacement of incumbent renters in the short run, the lost rental housing supply likely drove up market rents in the long run, ultimately undermining the goals of the law.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
If an electoral system rewards strategic voting, voters should have access to the information they need so that their vote has the effect they intend for it to have. In the 2015 federal, progressive voters wanted to turf the CPC: polls served a coordinating function rallying support around the LPC.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Pretty grim that the former *press secretary* doesn't even bother writing her own op-ed!
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The EU's been very committed to the idea that its "four freedoms" (movement of goods, services, capital, and people) are inseparable. You opt in to all four or you get zero: they're worried that severing them for bespoke deals (thus rewarding Brexit) would be bad for the stability of the project.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Their methods appendix (winometer-appendix.com) says they used Cint, which recruits very cheap survey respondents through things like mobile ads and incentive programs. This is a *weird* unweighted panel composition, and even the weighted composition doesn’t match the electorate.
Demographics table showing seniors are dramatically undersampled and weighted up (60+ is 24.6% unweighted,  32.7 weighted)Demographics table showing higher income households are undersampled. HHI of 80k+ sums to 32.5% unweighted and 48.9% weighted.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
It’s just a meme. Canada’s federal structure is plain incompatible with EU membership. There are whole areas of law where the EU has more say into its member states than Canada has into the provinces. In practice it’d look like admitting 11 new EU members, or overhauling the Canadian constitution.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
The feds needed broad provincial support to implement the Charter, so s. 33 was the compromise: a leg can violate rights if it says “we intend to violate your rights”, and the decision gets reviewed after the next election. (This is in addition to section 1 of the Charter, “no galaxy brain stuff”.)
1 The Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms guarantees the rights and freedoms set out in it subject only to such reasonable limits prescribed by law as can be demonstrably justified in a free and democratic society.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
A product of how the charter happened. The federal Libs wanted it, but provincial Conservatives were worried it would erode traditional Westminster system legislative supremacy, and the NDP and labour were worried a codified freedom of association would lead to right to work.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
The Notwithstanding Clause! Fed/prov legislatures can pass a bill on a 5 year clock that contravenes certain sections of the Charter - big ones, equivalents to 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th, and 14th amendments. It becomes unreviewable by courts. It’s how Québec can do its Charter-violating laïcité laws.
Section 33 of the Charter of Rights

Exception where express declaration

33 (1) Parliament or the legislature of a province may expressly declare in an Act of Parliament or of the legislature, as the case may be, that the Act or a provision thereof shall operate notwithstanding a provision included in section 2 or sections 7 to 15 of this Charter.

Operation of exception

(2) An Act or a provision of an Act in respect of which a declaration made under this section is in effect shall have such operation as it would have but for the provision of this Charter referred to in the declaration.

Five year limitation

(3) A declaration made under subsection (1) shall cease to have effect five years after it comes into force or on such earlier date as may be specified in the declaration.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Québec is subject to the federal Charter of Rights (though presumption of innocence is one of the rights that a province can choose to exempt itself from), but Québec’s provincial Charter of Rights separately guarantees presumption of innocence.
Screenshot of Québec legislation:

33. Every accused person is presumed innocent until proven guilty according to law.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Here’s GPT-5.5’s (released Apr 2026) performance at multiplying very large numbers together without tools. With even a medium reasoning budget, it did very well.
Two matrices showing how many attempts GPT-5.5 got correct at multiplying two numbers with 1…20 digits. Each cells shows seven attempts at two numbers of that length-pair.

At medium reasoning, it made 15 mistakes out of 2,800 attempts across the entire space.

With no reasoning, it could only reliably multiply digits of any length by digits of length one, with some success at multiplying by digits of length two.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
wrong answers only
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
The layout of the flyer is pretty clearly gpt-image-2, with I assume manually uploaded images and specified text.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Idk about every instance, but a fairly straightforward example I saw of Spero offering a cash reward was an author claiming on Reddit "my book written in the 1990s gets flagged by Pangram". Spero asked the author to upload a passage from that book, and wasn't taken up on it.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
The background figures on the right starting ~15s and through the end of the video look wobbly and ethereal, but it's a fairly minor detail!
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
My own uniform swing model has the PLQ at 31 seats with this poll, that’s why I flagged it. To get to 14, the model must have them losing some absolute bedrock seats (Mont Royal? LaFontaine? Vaudreuil? Chomedey? La Pinière?) which doesn’t seem justified on a poll that has the PLQ *up* from 2022.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Oh, that’s probably right! It feels impossible to imagine a time where cloture wasn’t automatically required for everything, that completely slipped my mind.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
The Byrd rule excludes any change to Social Security from reconciliation. To the extent they thought about legislative strategy (I don’t think there was ever an actual bill), they would have thought they needed 60.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
New update from MIT today says that they’re not sure there was any dimethyl actually synthesized and the student shows no sign of exposure. emergency.mit.net
Building 18 - update
Aug. 29, 2026, 3:36 p.m.

Offices across campus have been responding to a reported hazardous material incident involving a single individual in a chemistry laboratory. The Institute became aware of the matter after the individual, a graduate student, self-reported to a local emergency room and claimed to have synthesized dimethyl mercury, a compound that is not authorized as part of their research program. Emerging information calls into question whether this compound was in fact synthesized. We are also able to disclose, with the student’s permission, that while the student remains under medical supervision, their initial blood test result, which was received today, shows no sign of exposure to mercury.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
There’s a pretty useful term for this - “clapter”.
Wiktionary definition of clapter

2. A type of clapping or applause in comedy that arises when a comedian delivers a joke with the purpose of making the audience applaud and agree instead of laugh.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
A 14 seat mean prediction for the PLQ looks like a bug - there are 13 seats on the island west of St-Laurent alone, and this wasn’t an apocalyptic poll for them.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Other models, like Poliwave on Twitter or my own toy model, actually have the PQ falling to *third* in seat count on these numbers: the PQ just loses ~every 450 riding to the CAQ by 0-5%.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
It’s a broad category, but if someone says “peptides” instead of specifically GLP-1/ozempic/etc, I assume they’re talking about grey market non-FDA-approved concoctions, which are common in some circles. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/business…
But on Silicon Valley’s frontiers, a wider array of unproven, unregulated peptides has taken hold: People are trying BPC-157 and TB-500 for healing injuries by stimulating new blood vessel growth, oxytocin for improving eye contact (one OpenAI researcher called it “Ozempic for autism”), epitalon for sleep and retatrutide — a next-generation weight-loss drug still in clinical trials — for everything from appetite suppression to increased focus.

According to U.S. customs data, imports of hormone and peptide compounds from China roughly doubled to $328 million in the first three quarters of 2025, from $164 million in the same period of 2024. This includes demand for GLPs, melanotan II, and other peptides from compounding pharmacies and gray-market suppliers.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
They’re not *required* and it’s not inconsistently applied, it’s just a marketing choice certain brands made. At worse a store with an english trade name will have to put “Café Starbucks” or “Magasin Best Buy” on their sign.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
I think that’s an argument for Canadians not retaliating at all. There’s no appetite for this kind of defensive crouch don’t-hurt-your-abusers, might as well take the biggest swing you can at Iowa and see if you can spook Rs.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Maybe? But “take out a Silver Bulletin subscription and see what kind of retaliatory mix you can design that maximally hits toss-up/Lean R spots” is something that PMO and PCO would be negligent to not look at as an option.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
It’s not a matter of splitting hairs or crying for Napa Valley, it’s a matter of using Canada’s leverage most effectively. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs will be smaller proportionately than the US’ on Canada, so it’s a question of how do you maximise their political impact.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Absolutely, and for me at least a quick glance doesn’t register the blue toggle as an interactive clickable element. It could be much clearer and obvious. But putting it there at all (and with the “setting to review” text up top) is orders of magnitude better than OpenAI’s silent on-by-default.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
It’s on by default with ChatGPT, but the Claude account creation process (last I checked ~a month ago) does pop up the option to turn it off during onboarding. People might click through it, but it’s there.
Screen from Claude:

Before your first chat
A few things to know, plus one setting to review

Ad-free chats: We won't show you ads or let advertisers influence what Claude says.

Built to help, not harm: Automated safeguards protect your chats from violent, abusive, or deceptive content.

[BUTTON TOGGLE] Help Claude improve: Allow the use of your chats and coding sessions to train and improve Claude. Change anytime in privacy settings. Learn more
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
You got this one just under the wire before it became a real pitch. www.polygon.com/ban-child-ac...
polygon.com
Ban Child Actors and Replace Them with CGI
Hayden Panettiere, Harry Potter, and a problem Hollywood never wants to solve
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
There’s also this from today, which is particularly puzzling because showing off the time-skip mechanic was a major part of the August 4th Nintendo Direct! I didn’t realise Polygon has fallen off quite this much.
Article title: Fire Emblem Fortune's Weave may have just sneakily confirmed a time-skip

BY AIMEE HART
Published Aug 17, 2026, 11:10 AM EDTAll equally important questions, but the latest Fire Emblem trailer from Japan might have unintentionally answered another that's been on fans' minds: will Fortune's Weave have a time skip?

Many Fire Emblem games have featured time-related mechanics. The most notable is Fire Emblem: Three Houses, which featured a five-year time-skip that occurs after players finished the Monastery section, and followed protagonist Byleth returning to see that their students from the Black Eagles, the Blue Lions, and/or the Golden Deer house had all grown up in their absence. It was heartwarming, and gave us great new designs for all our favorite Three Houses characters.

It hasn't yet been officially confirmed whether this is the case for Fortune's Weave, but if you linger on the gameplay shown via the game's latest trailer, you'll notice in the portion where the player avatar character is fighting off the dark forces in the future, that they are joined by several different characters.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
That used to be the case, but Pangram 4 (released three weeks ago) now separates out likely-human and likely-LLM-written passages within one piece of text. www.pangram.com/blog/pangram-4-tech…
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
These are all on Soulseek! (Though for the Arden track, the only people who have it have locked it so it’s not freely shareable, you have to beg them.)
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
They have! That's why Anthropic is doing this.
Future Claude models will generate text that contains a watermark. This is a way of determining the likelihood that Claude was involved in writing the text, and we, along with several other major AI providers, are implementing this change to comply with the EU AI Act.

In this article, we share answers to some of the questions we’ve received about how our chosen watermarking method works, whether it affects Claude’s outputs, and why we’re making this change. To summarize:

-We use a method of watermarking that does not have any practical impact on the quality or content of Claude’s outputs;
-The difference between watermarked and un-watermarked text will not be distinguishable to readers;
-Nothing is added to the text and there are no hidden characters;
Watermarking doesn’t require extra tokens, and will not be more expensive;
-Watermarking carries no identifying information and can’t be traced to a specific person, organization, or chat;
-Watermarking won’t be specific to Claude. As of August 2, the EU requires AI providers serving its market to mark AI-generated content. Other major model developers have signed the same Code of Practice and will be implementing their own watermarks.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Tony Gilroy wouldn’t have been available to make Andor because he would have been busy working on the Percy Weasley series.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Looks like they’ve always been, since negotiations towards their first CBA in 1998.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
The Concordia Professional Employees Union is CSN-affiliated, I assume that’s where this came from.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
It’s a bunch of country-specific surveys so it’d take forever to find all, but here’s France: 66% women and 56% men agree (and ~30% mostly agree). The question is weird, though: “Washing my hands with soap is something I do automatically”, not quite the same as asking “something I do every time”.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
The sentiment is real, the joke is in the execution. “I’m sick of Claudespeak”, written in parodic Claudespeak.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
He uses “islamoleftism”, not fascism, but yeah.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
You forgot a word in your quote. He said “people prefer *cheaper*, lower-quality goods”. The word you omitted actually changes the meaning of the sentence!
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
The insurer who paid for the preventative care isn’t necessarily the insurer that covers you when savings are realized. I don’t know if the math is clear yet on using GLPs to prevent obesity being societally optimal, but even if it were the incentives aren’t lined up in the US system specifically.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
That’s a five year old tweet. The Internet Archive has since lost in court, establishing that their way of doing wasn’t compatible with fair use. www.insidehighered.com/news/tech-in…
insidehighered.com
A legal blow to Internet Archive, controlled digital lending
A federal judge’s ruling for book publishers delivered a swift verdict that has significant implications for librarians, writers and limits of digital libraries.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
That's not an accurate description of the RFP. There's an explicit commitment in there to provide ongoing subsidies to support below-retail staple prices. bsky.app/profile/joff...
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
They don't need gross margins - the city is proposing to pay ongoing subsidies to support the lower price.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Yeah, there’s a lot of wiggle room in that 30% claim. The thing that makes me think they envision it having real bite is the pledge to provide funding to support it, but without real numbers attached can’t say for sure.
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joffre.bsky.social @joffre.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
The RFP makes it look like the city is committing to provide ongoing subsidies to stores in order to have an offering in this category of goods that's 30% below *retail prices* elsewhere.
NYCEDC intends for the Operator(s) to sell SKUs within each Core Basket Category ("Core Basket SKUs") at prices that are, on average, 30% below retail prices. NYCEDC seeks to collaborate with the Operator to achieve this discount while minimizing the need for NYCEDC's financial support beyond capital fit-out and payment of rent and property taxes.

[...]

Selling Core Basket SKUs at affordable prices: The Operator(s) will be responsible for selling each Core Basket SKU at an affordable price, which shall be updated on a monthly basis. The Operator(s) will set prices, subject to NYCEDC approval, targeting an average discount of 30% relative to the retail price. Prices may be determined based on available market data, operator input based on existing operations, and/or other observable data points. NYCEDC and the Operator will finalize a proposed pricing methodology and process in any agreements associated with this project. Affordable prices must:
• Be available at all hours of operations
• Be offered as "sticker prices," rather than as promotional prices.NYCEDC, in collaboration with the City, will deploy various resources to make the partnership successful and financially sustainable for store operators. NYCEDC and the City will:
[...] 
-Make additional ongoing operating funding available as necessary, after accounting for payment of rent and property taxes, to ensure that NYCEDC's desired Core Basket discount price program is achievable.
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