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Joe Heaver

@joerosheav.bsky.social
18 followers 84 following 84 posts
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Had its recent offensive made major inroads, the military might have created impetus for a ceasefire. Instead we have frustrated military, and most likely scenario in the near term of a war of attrition. www.crisisgroup.org/anb/asia-pac...
crisisgroup.org
Myanmar Military Steps Up Airstrikes in Rakhine as Ground Offensive Stalls | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Thomas Kean examines why the Myanmar military’s faltering counteroffensive and escalating air attacks have further dimmed prospects for a ceasefire in Rakhine State.
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
asiatimes.com/2026/09/are-...
asiatimes.com
Are the Americans returning to Myanmar? They never really left - Asia Times
Adam Castillo, a former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Myanmar who had lobbied for sanctions relief in exchange for US, was released in
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
"there is no way to fight off the fascist threat without combating the true material crises that make it harder for people to resist strongmen and scapegoats" www.ft.com/content/bd13...
ft.com
Rerun or sequel? Naomi Klein and Astra Taylor on end times fascism
How nationalists, theocrats and tech titans turned their backs on a shared future
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
www.asiasentinel.com/p/patriot-bo...
asiasentinel.com
‘Patriot Bonds,’ an Indonesian Shakedown?
Prabowo risks alienating international investors
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
The FT gets to its core point at the end... for them the only "good" socialist is a National Socialist. www.ft.com/content/1b0a...
ft.com
Why must a socialist also be woke?
If the left could separate economics from culture, capitalism would have more to fear
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
www.nytimes.com/2026/08/04/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | I’m Begging You: Never Write With A.I. (Gift Article)
It’s bad for your brain and worse for democracy.
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Could the refugee camps of the past become the cities of the future "Even before Trump’s cuts, the detention center had replaced the refugee camp as a policy priority" www.noemamag.com/what-comes-a...
noemamag.com
What Comes After The Refugee Camp | NOEMA
As humanitarian funding collapses, the global system for dealing with refugees is coming apart at the seams.
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
blogs.lse.ac.uk/activism-inf...
blogs.lse.ac.uk
What Endures: Navigating AI and the End of Aid as We Knew It - Activism Influence and Change
Please excuse the self absorption, but I’ve recently been mulling over the personal impact of two huge sources of disruption: the seismic impact of AI on knowledge work, and the wood chippering of the...
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
www.theargumentmag.com/p/elon-musks...
theargumentmag.com
Yes, Elon Musk is responsible for the deaths of millions
World's richest man denies hurting world's poorest
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
We are witnessing the slow death of the prestige career | Alice Lassman
White-collar work is at risk across the board, including at elite consulting firms that used to be a pathway to the 1%
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
eastasiaforum.org/2026/06/07/c...
eastasiaforum.org
China deepens its foothold in post-coup Myanmar
Despite its rhetoric of non-interference, Beijing has adopted new forms of selective intervention in post-coup Myanmar to protect its strategic interests
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Indonesia is a nickel state in formation, leveraging mineral rents the way petrostates leverage hydrocarbons fulcrum.sg/prabowos-nic...
fulcrum.sg
Prabowo’s Nickel State: Indonesia’s Search for Power | FULCRUM
Will the Prabowo administration’s agenda of centralisation and state control over the nickel sector build lasting industrial capacity, or be even more extractive?
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
theguardian.com
I ran aid programmes for 25 years – getting my car fixed at an Islamabad market taught me why they don’t work | Mohammad Altaf Afridi
The donors meant well, but in Pakistan I saw funds poured into professional, unaccountable NGOs rather than authentic, grassroots civil society
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
www.ft.com/content/286f...
ft.com
Why markets are surging in spite of war
Even amid a supply shock, tech stocks continue to drive indices higher. Is the optimism justified?
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
From 20mn barrels/day lost: 1.5mn OPEC, 5.5mn pipelines, 3.3mn inventories, 3.9mn sanctioned oil, 1mn alternatives. Shortfall: 4.6mn/day (4% global consumption). www.ft.com/content/88ce...
ft.com
The great commodities disruption
Trump’s attack on Iran has served as a reminder of how interconnected the global economy remains
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
cimsec.org/desert-storm...
cimsec.org
Desert Storm Made the PLA. What is the Iran War Making? | Center for International Maritime Security
By Commander Ander S. Heiles, USN In January 1991, Chinese military officers watched CNN footage of the United States dismantling the Iraqi Army and experienced what one People’s Liberation Army (PLA)...
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
www.gzeromedia.com/the-case-aga...
gzeromedia.com
The case against political prediction markets
The day before the United States and Israel struck Iran on February 28, more than 150 accounts on Polymarket correctly bet it would happen on that specific date.
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
www.arabnews.com/node/2637610
arabnews.com
The Rohingya repatriation myth: A crisis quietly abandoned
For years, the international community has spoken with reassuring consistency about the eventual return of the Rohingya to Myanmar. Repatriation has remained the stated objective of governments, UN ag...
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
www.ft.com/content/ff71...
ft.com
The cynical opportunities of ‘Epic Fury’
With this US administration, the best bet is that a business deal is to be reached with Iran
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
www.theguardian.com/artanddesign...
theguardian.com
‘Was I scared going back to China? No’: Ai Weiwei on AI, western censorship and returning home
He has been jailed, tracked and threatened by China’s government. What was it like pay a visit home? As he publishes a polemic about surveillance and state control, the artist relives a momentous trip...
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
www.abc.net.au/religion/aft...
abc.net.au
The moral consequences of Myanmar’s military coup - ABC Religion & Ethics
During my recent visit to the Thai-Myanmar border, I witnessed the consolidation of waiting as a way of life: five years on, the crisis in Myanmar has not ended, it has settled — and what has settled ...
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GfX...
youtube.com
Why civil war is brewing in Iran
YouTube video by The Economist
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
dissentmagazine.org/article/the-...
dissentmagazine.org
The Demise of Conflict Studies - Dissent Magazine
An entire industry specializing in mediation, peacekeeping, disarmament, and transitional justice has become largely obsolete.
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/202...
thenewhumanitarian.org
What’s shaping aid policy in 2026
Big tech, shrinking funds, weird partnerships, drones and influencers, new models, climate progress, ending well: Humanitarian trends for the year ahead.
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
“The question is, will it work? I think Delcy is going to dance the tango with Team Trump and then she’s going to be stabbed in the back by Diosdado and Padrino López, and then Trump will be back in a kinetic sense.” www.ft.com/content/4b87...
ft.com
The woman with Donald Trump’s nod to lead Venezuela
Washington has built its transition plans around vice-president Delcy Rodríguez, a canny operator close to the oil industry
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
pulitzercenter.org/stories/back...
pulitzercenter.org
Back in Business: Zahkung Ting Ying Tries To Rebuild His Empire
Over the past decade, the military-aligned warlord and his associates amassed wealth from Kachin State’s rare earth mining boom until the Kachin Independence Army took their territory last year, but.....
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
seamap.lowyinstitute.org/map/?view=1&...
seamap.lowyinstitute.org
Map - Lowy Institute Southeast Asia Aid Map
Get an overview of development financing in the Southeast Asia region
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
The signs of decline are clear eastasiaforum.org/2025/10/11/t...
eastasiaforum.org
The great rebalancing of area studies
Western cuts and China’s expansion are shifting area studies eastward, reshaping global knowledge production.
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
AI accounts for 40 per cent of US GDP growth this year. Foreigners now also own about 30 per cent of the US market. www.ft.com/content/6cc8...
ft.com
America is now one big bet on AI
It’s seen as the magic fix for every threat to the US economy
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
"One reason that crisis seems less apt a term in the current moment is that the disruptions are so intentional. If Israel’s intent is to flatten Gaza... those aren’t processes akin to a pandemic or a financial crisis. They are deliberate acts of aggression" on.ft.com/46dgqgX
ft.com
Financial Times
News, analysis and opinion from the Financial Times on the latest in markets, economics and politics
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
www.reuters.com/world/china/...
reuters.com
Exclusive: Why China's ultimatum to Myanmar rebels threatens global supply of heavy rare earths
The global supply of heavy rare earths hinges in part on the outcome of a months-long battle between a rebel army and the Chinese-backed military junta in the hills of northern Myanmar.
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
"Though many Tibetans resented China’s assault on their faith and traditions, not all mourned the fall of the rapacious feudal families who fled with the Dalai Lama in 1959" theprint.in/opinion/secu...
theprint.in
Dalai Lama decides to reincarnate. His successor may only get an imagined homeland to rule
There is little doubt about what Beijing will do if the successor to the Dalai Lama is chosen from within Tibet. China has no intention of allowing India or the West to influence its Tibet policy.
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
"Ali Khamenei is likely to become the Islamic Republic's last 'Supreme Leader' in the full sense of the word." www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
When the Supreme Leader emerges, he'll be leading a changed Iran
The war has left the country significantly weakened - and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a diminished leader
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
A Beijing-backed militia [UWSA] is protecting new rare earth mines in eastern Myanmar [Monghsat township] near the border with Thailand, as China moves to secure control of the minerals it is wielding as a bargaining chip in a trade war with the United States. www.reuters.com/world/china/...
reuters.com
Exclusive: China-backed militia secures control of new rare earth mines in Myanmar
Beijing is heavily reliant on Myanmar for the rare earth metals and oxides needed to produce them.
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
"International agencies may not volunteer to step aside" to dismantle bubble of camp life, "shift to mobile cash, scale up in-camp livelihood initiatives, ramp up development financing for host community" www.thenewhumanitarian.org/opinion/2025...
thenewhumanitarian.org
Funding cuts force new thinking for world’s largest refugee camp
The IFRC’s regional director lays out a roadmap for how to improve conditions for more than a million Rohingya refugees.
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
news.mongabay.com/2025/06/rare...
news.mongabay.com
Rare earth rush in Myanmar blamed for toxic river spillover into Thailand
CHIANG RAI, Thailand — Just days before the water fights were set to erupt across Chiang Rai for Songkran — Thailand’s New Year celebration, held every April and known for its festive street soakings ...
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
www.gzeromedia.com/viewpoint/vi...
gzeromedia.com
The migration issue will only get worse
More and more people will seek a new homeland over the next few decades, which will pose a major challenge to political leaders. However, politicians have shown little interest in dealing with this ch...
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
rand.org
The Gulf of Thailand May Be the Next U.S.-China Flashpoint
Geopolitical tensions between China and the United States have escalated in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, raising fears of war. The Gulf of Thailand has remained relatively calm, but that may...
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
www.natesilver.net/p/were-track...
natesilver.net
We're tracking more data on Trump's popularity
An old pattern has re-emerged: his haters are increasingly more passionate than his supporters.
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 07/06/2025
another Trump Nixon analogy doing the rounds unherd.com/2025/05/trum...
unherd.com
Trump’s strategy of peace
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/gen...
bangkokpost.com
‘Unsafe’ heavy metal levels in northern Thai rivers
The Pollution Control Department has confirmed unsafe levels of arsenic and other heavy metals in the Kok, Sai and Mekong rivers in northern Thailand, with the contamination traced to upstream mining ...
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 28/05/2025
"Heavy metals from Wa-controlled mines continue contaminating the Kok and Sai Rivers. Despite media attention, the Wa remain unbothered. Thai officials are sent in circles between the junta and the Wa" transbordernews.in.th/home/?p=4248...
transbordernews.in.th
The Wa’s Bold Agenda and Thailand’s Minimal Response
Paskorn Jumlongrach In April 2024,
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 19/05/2025
In 2010 UN peacekeeping budget $7 billion / humanitarian operations $9 billion. In 2024, UN peacekeeping budget less than $6 billion / humanitarian operations $35 billion. www.crisisgroup.org/global-unite...
crisisgroup.org
Doing “Less with Less” at the UN | International Crisis Group
Sweeping cuts in U.S. contributions have put UN finances under great strain. Many at the UN have long felt it should slim down, but less thought has been given to what a smaller organisation will mean...
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
“They sound like politicians” www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
AI hallucinations can’t be stopped — but these techniques can limit their damage
Developers have tricks to stop artificial intelligence from making things up, but large language models are still struggling to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
"I'm not afraid about AI taking my job. I'm much more afriad about AI just completely sucking the joy out of my job" www.quantamagazine.org/where-do-sci...
quantamagazine.org
Where Do Scientists Think This Is All Going? | Quanta Magazine
We asked some of the world’s foremost experts an impossible question. Amazingly, they answered.
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
"After the takeover, KIA announced a pause in exports. Although trade has now resumed, the price of terbium has risen significantly by more than 21 percent" "Almost two-thirds of the heavy rare earths dysprosium and terbiumon the global market come from Myanmar" www.boell.de/en/2025/04/2...
boell.de
Rare Earths: Why European Industries Are Dependent on Myanmar | Heinrich Böll Stiftung
Almost two-thirds of the heavy rare earths dysprosium and terbium on the global market come from Myanmar. How should Germany and Europe deal with the mining of urgently needed rare earths in the civil...
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
On May 2023, the Kolkata to Sittwe slice of the Kaladan project became operational, with Mizoram State side also mostly completed. Paletwa was the final cog in India’s Look/Act East Policy thewire.in/south-asia/u...
thewire.in
Understanding India's Interests in Myanmar's Paletwa That Pro-Democracy Forces Snatched from Junta
The fall of Junta-controlled key township into hands of Arakan Army holds significance for India's Look/Act East policy, particularly to the India-funded Kaladan Road Project.
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 27/04/2025
"a completely different and previously unknown process for producing oxygen on Earth [in the seabed]" www.theverge.com/2024/8/5/242...
theverge.com
‘Dark oxygen’ discovered on the seafloor raises stakes for deep-sea mining negotiations
“Dark oxygen” discovered at the bottom of the ocean adds fuel to a fierce fight over mining.
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Joe Heaver @joerosheav.bsky.social · 27/04/2025
www.myanmarinternet.info/post/surveil...
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