iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 25/09/2026

Victorian era bootmakers have a surprising amount to say about technological disruption in the AI age as.ft.com/r/4a8bd4a9-c...

052

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 14/09/2026

Three reasons why the Fed will/should raise rates on Wednesday: 1. core PCE inflation has been trending higher for some time and the Aug CPI release suggests more to come 2. financial conditions are loose 3. household inflation expectations are high and rising My take: as.ft.com/r/8db4741a-0...

021

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 30/07/2026

Nice figure on the Warsh effect -- the gap between the 30yr and 2yr Treasury shot up as.ft.com/r/7d1c8d80-2...

153

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 27/07/2026

I've written about the troubling, decades-long decoupling of pay & productivity growth The textbook says these should grow together, but reality - far from perfect competition - means capital has captured more of the economic fruits AI risks widening the gap Link 👉 as.ft.com/r/a188bb54-b...

22915

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 23/07/2026

Household inflation expectations in the US are worryingly high In surveys & social media, people expect higher inflation in the long term. The market is more sanguine, but it's household behaviour that matters Warsh's Fed risks being all talk and no action on rates as.ft.com/r/bfb57ad3-6...

183

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 20/07/2026

With the Andy Burnham era beginning, I argue that the new PM should go for a devolution 'big bang' This could help solve two big problems: low productivity in the public sector and in the UK's second-tier cities My Free Lunch column: as.ft.com/r/c9866d20-9...

042

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 14/07/2026

I've written about the Fed and BoE's trust deficit for the @financialtimes.com central banks newsletter A growing % of households in US and UK are 'de-anchored', expecting far higher inflation in long run. Low levels of trust are an important reason why as.ft.com/r/99d85a19-0...

030

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 10/07/2026

🤖 Can an AI ‘superforecaster’ beat the market? 🤖 When it comes to predicting Fed decisions, the AI does not (yet) have an edge as.ft.com/r/aded4aa2-4...

020

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 29/06/2026

Kevin Warsh's desire to turn back the clock on Federal Reserve communications will add volatility to the rates markets Warsh, as evidenced by his first meeting, wants to return to the Greenspan era, a time characterised by frequent & large monetary policy surprises More: as.ft.com/r/72d10976-8...

132

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 29/06/2026

I wrote about the intractable problem of left behind places, in the UK and elsewhere, recently One stark example is Germany, where *trillions* have been redistributed to the East to help it catch up but the region is still relatively poor and is now the AfD's base as.ft.com/r/d1de8c36-b...

3228

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 29/06/2026

It's great that the UK govt is looking to encourage solar panels, heat pumps and batteries, but there's got to be a more direct and effective way than this? as.ft.com/r/373ea167-a... UK government to subsidise bank loans for green home improvements

151

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 26/06/2026

We hear a lot about how AI promises, or threatens, to transform the world of work. But for that to happen companies will actually need to use the tech -- so far, adoption is very low @sarahoconnorft.ft.com & I look at why in the @financialtimes.com AI shift newsletter --> as.ft.com/r/bf9e25ce-0...

3165

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 18/06/2026

Reminder that the world's first trillionaire is a far-right activist who barely sleeps so he can promote far-right content on his microblogging site Here's an updated version of that famous Economist figure

33814

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 15/06/2026

AI will lead to mass unemployment according to the technologists. Will this include central bankers? I ran a simulation of Kevin Warsh's first FOMC to find out. Rate-setters should probably be worried about their future job prospects... as.ft.com/r/0041dd19-b...

072

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 15/06/2026

"Silicon Kevin Warsh chairs his first Fed rate meeting" I've written a @financialtimes.com exclusive -- a fly-on-the-wall of a simulated FOMC meeting where fake Warsh (an LLM fed with his bio, writings, and public remarks) interacts with his new, fake colleagues as.ft.com/r/ea6068d6-1...

022

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 11/06/2026

Right-wing UK MPs are posting far more on X/twitter since Musk's takeover, while the left retreats (but has not fully abandoned the site) One notable exception is the very online @zackpolanski.bsky.social My article w @pickardje.bsky.social & @rachel-rees.bsky.social as.ft.com/r/295c9f7e-c...

45727

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 08/06/2026

How persistent will inflation be in the UK? Megan Greene thinks v persistent & large second round effects - hence ~3 rate hikes But this is effectively a bet on companies passing-through costs -- the current data suggests margins will instead be compressed My piece: as.ft.com/r/2b923832-7...

020

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 28/05/2026

📢Companies are gearing up for price increases📢 My new piece in the @financialtimes.com on potential for the pricing channel as a source of persistent inflation The wage bargaining channel, on other hand, is not looking as problematic for central banks -- see fig 👇 Link: as.ft.com/r/7230402a-e...

131

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 19/05/2026

😱 Trump wants to undermine ICC with Putin and Xi

220

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 16/05/2026

Important reminder: “Historically, futures prices have been poor at forecasting the future, especially at times of geopolitical uncertainty.” Options show elevated price uncertainty V nice work here: as.ft.com/r/a6011e4d-0... Why the oil futures curve is not a crystal ball

0164

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 13/05/2026

We need to talk about Huw Huw Pill that is, chief economist of the Bank of England, who has become an outlier on the BoE's monetary policy committee My latest in the @financialtimes.com as.ft.com/r/3d233df6-d...

041

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 12/05/2026

US CPI report indeed looking problematic for the Fed. Core inflation and Warsh's preferred median weighted CPI both OKish compared with looking at the % of items rising in price -- this is 87% versus 70% average, rising since Apr 2025 as.ft.com/r/e7f2700e-8...

031

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 12/05/2026

With Keir Starmer's premiership hanging in the balance, @amyborrett.ft.com has put together the definitive set of charts to summarise his tumultuous tenure A few 👇👇and more 👉https://as.ft.com/r/41e56e14-02de-400a-96bd-38a0a4b6efc6

054

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 08/05/2026

When it comes to central bank communication, perhaps less is not more... something for incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh to ponder as he plans to reduce comms by the FOMC More on BoE surprises relative to peers and over time (free-to-read) 👉 as.ft.com/r/65020096-1...

030

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 08/05/2026

It also signals potential communication issues at the Bank of England. Part of the problem in March may well have been that there was no press conference following the decision. Clearly the minutes presented an overly hawkish message (see our news story at the time as.ft.com/r/00278fcd-7...)

120

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 08/05/2026

This matters: large surprises lead to adverse market reactions and higher uncertainty. A case in point is the March 2026 decision which led to substantially higher government bond yields and mortgage rates

110

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 08/05/2026

📢 I've written a piece for @financialtimes.com on monetary policy surprises in the UK -- they are relatively large and getting larger 📢 Free link: as.ft.com/r/65020096-1...

1164

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 05/05/2026

'References to “pricing action” and “passing on costs” during first-quarter US earnings calls have climbed to the highest level since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine sparked the last global inflation shock in 2022, according to an FT analysis.' as.ft.com/r/beafa412-4...

042

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 30/04/2026

Consider also Barnsley in the north of England. The former coal mining town has seen an influx of ££ in recent years, translating into visible improvements Yet voters are set to sweep aside Labour in favour of Farage’s Reform on May 7 The reason: Barnsley remains heavily deprived, w few good jobs

282

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 30/04/2026

📢 I've written about 'left-behind' places & what we can do in the @financialtimes.com 📢 We have a clear understanding of the drivers, but we have failed when it comes to solutions Exhibit A is Germany -- support for AfD is concentrated in East despite *trillions* being sent since reunification👇

1104

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 22/04/2026

Kevin Warsh wants to ditch core PCE. His preferred measure, trimmed mean PCE, just happens to look the 'best' against the Fed target, now at 2.3% Cherry-picking will land you in trouble at some point tho - trimmed PCE was v slow to see the 2021-22 inflation surge 👇 as.ft.com/r/6e55db7e-8...

22511

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 20/04/2026

One advantage over market-based measures is the ability to mine the rich text for understanding drivers of expectations The Iran war is now (unsurprisingly) driving higher expectations. But fiscal policy has declined despite yawning fiscal deficits and proposals to increase spending further

110

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 20/04/2026

Our measure helps predict household inflation expectations and is highly correlated with traded inflation expectations

100

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 20/04/2026

📢 Introducing a measure of inflation expectations based on social media posts (from the other place for now) in the @financialtimes.com📢 Social media provides frequent & timely information that is difficult or expensive to gather The result from millions of tweets on inflation👇👇

130

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 16/04/2026

This is really excellent by @soumayakeynes.ft.com What’s really shocking about the second China shock? One is that China import volumes have not increased, and another is Chinese cut-throat competition leading to 'involution' -- see fig as.ft.com/r/fdefbc40-f...

022

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 15/04/2026

The market has slowly come to the realisation that the BoE is unlikely, despite the Iran energy shock, to raise interest rates this month

1184

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 15/04/2026

This is disturbing. Incredibly wide health gaps in the UK, with men in the most deprived areas having an average of only 50 years of 'good health' as.ft.com/r/97104951-5...

182

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 14/04/2026

This is a very interesting piece on Chinese 'involution' The second China shock is underway and will presumably push down heavily on prices and concentrated job losses in West as.ft.com/r/f7e301a3-8...

081

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 13/04/2026

The Liz Truss ‘moron premium’ has not gone away. UK yields are more volatile and structurally higher than peers, and this is a really big deal as.ft.com/r/b78ddaf5-7... Who lost the UK bond market?

0133

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 12/04/2026

One striking example — prices have risen 57 per cent cumulatively since 2020 in Hungary, about double the EU rise due to domestic policy

166

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 11/04/2026

As with wider Hungarian society and economy, the polls in Hungary have been Orbanised over the last 16 years Large disconnect between government affiliated polls, showing Orban's party in the lead, and independent polls as.ft.com/r/e40d645e-c...

143

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 20/03/2026

The Bank of England was a real outlier with its comms this week, far more hawkish than peers Language analysis shows a sharp shift in tone from the UK central bank this week as.ft.com/r/41e01e51-9...

1109

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 20/03/2026

Massive repricing after yesterday: the market now thinks Bank of England will hike rates in the near term Over 85% chance of one hike by June, 30% probability of back-to-back hikes 😮

0203

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 12/03/2026

My piece today in @financialtimes.com on Iran and inflation expectations 👇👇 In short: hawkish communications and actions are to be expected by central bankers Free-to-read: as.ft.com/r/b94a63c9-4...

173

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 10/03/2026

Nice fig showing flight departures from Gulf coming back but still lots of cancellations

061

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 09/03/2026

More ships leaving Strait of Hormuz but still far fewer than before attack

181

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 09/03/2026

Lots of excellent figures and analysis here: Which leading economies will pay the biggest price for the Iran war? as.ft.com/r/65d0bb01-0...

041

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 06/03/2026

Stagflation risks rising in the US

0115

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 06/03/2026

The Iranian conflict is a big geopolitical shock in relative terms, and one that will be stagflationary for Europe and the US My piece in @financialtimes.com on our Geopolitical Mood index and lessons for central bankers from geopolitical shocks past as.ft.com/r/ff95a5f1-d...

2237

Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 03/03/2026

Worryingly from a European inflation perspective, the price of natural gas is leaping higher. But the Iran price impact is still wayyy below Russia invasion of Ukraine impact as.ft.com/r/ae56dcb3-d... In charts: How serious is the Middle East gas price shock?

021