iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Only 0.67% of US agricultural land is foreign-held. The vast majority of that is forest land. Canada is by a wide margin the largest single origin of foreign farmland owners in the US.

121

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Who owns US farmland? Farmdoc has a new tool to visualize foreign interest in US farmland, created by my colleagues Bruce Sherrick and Juo-Han Tsay at the TIAA Center for Farmland Research. Doing this isn't easy, because the numbers are actually very small.

farmdocdaily.illinois.edu

Foreign Ownership of U.S. Agricultural Land - farmdoc daily

Bruce Sherrick and Juo-Han Tsay - Using US land in Farms as the reference, foreign ownership interests amount to 0.67% of the total, and the remaining 99.33% is US owned. Forestland accounts for…

121

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Corn basis dips by an average of $0.11-0.16/bu in the fall (larger when measured in specific locations). The dip generally coincides with the peak of harvest activity. Farmers need to decide whether average return of ~$0.15/bu justifies cost of delivering outside the so-called 'gut slot' of harvest.

210

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Just in time for harvest, my latest for farmdoc Daily with students Austin Belman and Esteban Vizcarrondo studies how harvest pressure creates a temporary decline in local corn prices.

100

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Come participate in a vibrant and growing forum for commodity markets research! The NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis will be back in Chicago, April 19-20, 2027. The call for paper proposals is out now. Submission deadline is Nov 20: farmdoc.illinois.edu/nccc134/subm...

010

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

This is a remarkable chart. How closely do the statement time stamps match the indicated price declines? I can't think of a case, but has the oil futures market managed to shrug off an attempted jawboning during this period?

010

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

It also provided a time and space to thank the many people that have supported me and my work - colleagues, staff, institutions, and especially family. Thank you all!

000

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

The investiture ceremony shown here was an opportunity to reflect on the work that has informed my thinking on agricultural commodity markets. (The reference list for my remarks includes www.jstor.org/stable/1246888 and www.jstor.org/stable/44806...)

jstor.org

100

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

I look forward to using the resources associated with it to grow my research, teaching, and extension work on the connections between commodity futures and options markets and the agricultural economy.

100

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

This week I had the honor of being invested in a new position: The Clearing Corporation Foundation Endowed Associate Professorship in Derivatives Trading at the University of Illinois. I am extremely thankful to my department and college for entrusting me with this position.

110

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

Has the grain industry stopped investing in growth? I got to talk about trends in US grain storage capacity with Chad Moyer from Rural Radio Network. There is a concerning decline in the growth of total US grain storage capacity since 2020 that so far defies a single explanation.

100

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

The NCCC-134 Conference is live in the Loop in Chicago! It's two days of compelling research presentations and meaningful knowledge exchange on agricultural commodity markets, price forecasting, and market risk management.

020

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 18/04/2026

Eventually! All theses are deposited in the University library, but we will continue to work on this model before we submit the paper to an academic journal. The model ignores some parts of int'l trade, esp end of US soy oil exports. So, more work to do.

010

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

She considers how much of recent changes in relative prices and production in the soybean sector can be attributed to renewable diesel demand.

110

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

End of spring semester is the season for thesis defenses. We had a great one this week from my Masters student Yu-Chi Wang. Her thesis "The Effects of the Renewable Diesel Boom on the U.S. Soybean Complex: An Equilibrium Displacement Analysis."

120

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Each semester, I bring industry experts to my ACE 427 class on Commodity Price Analysis. Last Friday, we were fortunate to hear from Brian Splitt at AgMarket.net about the practice of technical analysis and the art of making a career change.

110

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Higher corn/soybean prices got support from data in USDA's Plantings and Stocks Reports. Scott Irwin and I broke down the numbers in a post-report webinar, incl. corn use variability, pervasive soybean oil demand effects, and why US corn yields may defy expectations: www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PfF...

youtube.com

Implications of Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks for Corn and Soybean Market Outlook

In this webinar archive from March 31, 2026, University of Illinois agricultural economists Joe Janzen and Scott Irwin break down the latest USDA Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports. Join…

000

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

Scott Irwin and I will be breaking down the latest USDA forecasts for corn and soybean plantings and grain stocks. Numbers are out at 11am CT. We'll be live at 1pm. (I can't speak on an empty stomach!) Register now (for free) and join us! farmdoc.illinois.edu/webinars

farmdoc.illinois.edu

Events Archive - farmdoc

The March 31st release of Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks data by USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service is typically one of the most consequential data releases for corn and soybean…

051

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Don't miss this opportunity to learn about the latest research on agricultural commodity markets and broaden your professional network. Register now and join us in Chicago!

000

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

The program features 26 exciting papers by researchers from the United States, Europe, and South America. There will be a group dinner on Monday night and a keynote lunch address on Tuesday from Hilary Till, Principal at Premia Research.

100

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

This longstanding conference, which focuses on agricultural markets and trading, meets April 20-21 at the Illini Center in Chicago. Find the program, venue and hotel information, and conference registration here: buff.ly/3Qx6Qg3 Early registration deadline is next week.

buff.ly

Attend - farmdoc

110

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Interested in research on commodity markets, trading, and pricing? We are less than 6 weeks away from the latest iteration of the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

100

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

The program features 26 exciting papers by researchers from the United States, Europe, and South America. You will not want to miss this opportunity to learn about the latest research and broaden your professional network. Sign up now and join us in Chicago!

000

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

This longstanding conference meets April 20-21 at the Illini Center in Chicago. Find the program, venue and hotel information, and conference registration here: buff.ly/3Qx6Qg3

buff.ly

Attend - farmdoc

100

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

Interested in research on agricultural commodity markets/trading/pricing? We are just 9 weeks away from the latest iteration of the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

110

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

My latest for @farmdocdaily: US grain storage capacity growth has stopped after decades of storage growth matching crop production growth. Capacity utilization is up, especially for on-farm storage, with implications for supply chains and future investments. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/02/us-g...

farmdocdaily.illinois.edu

US Grain Storage Capacity Growth Has Stopped - farmdoc daily

Joe Janzen - US grain storage capacity grew parallel to production from 2000-2019 but has stagnated since 2020. Combined with rising production, this led to record 80% on-farm capacity utilization in…

000

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

The next question is why. J.R.'s future work may assess legal, tax, and farm payment-based motives for adopting particular legal business structures.

000

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

The data allows J.R. to assess the changing prevalence of legal entity use at the farm level. He finds Limited Liability Companies or LLCs, have grown substantially in the past 15-20 years.

100

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

J.R. found a clever way to see how entity use is changing over time in public records on USDA Farm Service Agency payments. While the method for identifying entity types is imperfect (it's based on the named recipient which may contain the terms "LLC", "Inc", etc.) it is consistent over time.

100

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

Next is M.S. student J.R. Glenn, who looks at the use of legal entities in US production agriculture. Numbers of farms and farmers can be found in data from USDA NASS and the Census of Agriculture, but we know little about legal entities like partnerships, LLCs, C- and S- corps.

100

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 31/12/2025

We find China has made limited progress toward soybean self-sufficiency. Official Chinese statistics have the soymeal inclusion rate declining post-policy, but USDA/third-parties data show declines not as sharp or as smooth as official figures. China’s overall soybean import demand remains high.

010

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 31/12/2025

Jilang shows roughly one-sixth of animal feed in China is soybean meal, mostly derived from imported soybeans. China hasn't always been dependent on soybean imports, and its agricultural policy seeks self-sufficiency. It's technically feasible but potentially costly: www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

reuters.com

100

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 31/12/2025

Next is Ph.D. student Jilang Qing who assessed changes in China's soybean meal use in feed rations and what it says about efforts within China to reduce demand for soybean imports from Brazil and the US. (There was lots of interest in soybeans, veg oils, and related markets this year!)

100

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 31/12/2025

Each year, students in my graduate class at the University of Illinois write-up their research on agricultural markets and prices for a non-academic audience. Then we share it with the world over the holidays on farmdoc Daily: farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/12/can-...

farmdocdaily.illinois.edu

Can China Reduce Soybean Import Demand? Evaluating Soybean Meal Reduction Efforts - farmdoc daily

Jilang Qing and Joe Janzen - China is the world’s largest soybean importer, relying heavily on foreign supplies—primarily from the United States and Brazil—to meet rapidly growing animal feed demand.…

110

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 29/12/2025

She finds the relatively stable relationship among vegetable oils prices has periodically broken down in the period since 2020, particularly around major biofuels policy shifts both in the US and in SE Asia.

000

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 29/12/2025

Next up is MS student Yu-Chi who's been working with me on how soybean markets have adapted to growing demand for vegetable oils as a biofuels feedstock. She looks at pricing relationships among veg oils, specifically palm and soybean, globally the two largest.

100

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 29/12/2025

110

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 23/12/2025

He shows the basic economics of crops like CoverCress and winter canola look promising, but existing acreage is a rounding error relative to soybeans and there are many tough-to-measure obstacles to widespread adoption.

000

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 23/12/2025

Demand for biofuels feedstocks, especially fats and vegetable oils, has surged in the US. Jacob examines an intriguing form of supply response: increasing per-acre veg oil production by growing two oilseed crops each year.

100

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 23/12/2025

First up is MS student Jacob Lionberger on potential for winter oilseed production in the Corn Belt. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/12/wint...

100

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 13/12/2025

Shared my (uncontroversial?) take that US farmers would not benefit from tariffs on Canadian fertilizer. I had fewer thoughts when interviewed on the recently announced ad hoc farm payments. www.theglobeandmail.com/world/us-pol...

theglobeandmail.com

U.S. eyes high tariffs on Canadian fertilizer, subsidies for farmers

Agriculture industry has been battered by months of trade war turmoil

020

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 09/12/2025

We delved into stimulating discussions on 24/7 trading, the rise of retail traders, and the critical role of futures markets for physical commodities. While our team didn't win (they finished 78th out of 615) they gleaned valuable insight on what it takes to win (and not lose) in commodity markets.

000

Joe Janzen @jjanzen.bsky.social · 09/12/2025

This semester, I had the pleasure of advising a student team from the Department of Ag and Consumer Economics in the CME University Trading Challenge: www.cmegroup.com/events/unive.... Yesterday, we engaged with CME staff and industry experts during the CME Group Day of Market Education in Chicago.

110