iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 27/12/2025

Never taken a dime from Exxon bro. BP. As explained at length elsewhere, including here x.com/i/status/200... Get your big evil funders straight. All my ZERO Lab funding is listed here zero.lab.princeton.edu/mission-peop...

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 17/12/2025

It's not every day we get to welcome a totally new clean energy technology into commercial operation. Today on Shift Key, we talk with Eavor Technologies CEO Mark Fitzgerald about how the company brought online the first-ever closed-loop geothermal heat & power project this month in Germany! 🔌💡

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 04/12/2025

How do we connect data centers to the grid quickly and avoid driving up costs for other electricity consumers? The solution: a 2-part combo of flexible interconnection agreements & bring-your-own-capacity (BYOC) arrangements, according to a new report out today from Camus, my ZERO Lab, and encoord.

A new report diagrams how Flexible Interconnection and Bring-Your-Own-Capacity (BYOC) can connect data centers to the grid faster while avoiding shifting costs to other electricity consumers.

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 14/11/2025

Solar and wind are covering ALL new power demand worldwide in the first three quarters of 2025 electrek.co/2025/11/13/s... #upshift 🔌💡

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 07/11/2025

SPP (the Southwest Power Pool, serving the central Great Plains states) approved a new regional transmission plan with $8.6 billion in projects, including ~950 miles of ultra-high voltage 765 kV lines, and with estimated benefits 18X the costs www.spp.org/documents/75... More of this please! 🔌💡

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 06/11/2025

How's this for energy abundance? Millions of Aussies will start receiving three hours of free power each day in 2026. This is what happens when you make rooftop solar less than a buck a watt!! "Rooftop solar installations cost about $840 (U.S.) per kilowatt of capacity before rebates." 🤯 🔌💡

For years, Australians have been been installing solar panels at a rapid clip. Now that investment is paying off.

The Australian government announced this week that electricity customers in three states will get free electricity for up to three hours per day starting in July 2026.

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 04/11/2025

Cost estimates for new gas power plants just keep rising! www.utilitydive.com/news/gas-pow... 🔌💡

According to Enverus, capital costs for new natural gas power plants now average $2,200/kW to $3,000/kW. An analysis by GridLab adds another $1,500/kW levelized for the 20-year cost of fuel and $500/kW for pipeline infrastructure, putting the cost of new gas generation at $4,000/kW to $4,500/kW.

Kevin Smith, CEO of Arevon Energy, spent years working on natural gas projects alongside nuclear and renewables before transitioning to focus on renewables exclusively. He suggested there was a ceiling to how much gas could be built to meet near-term demand given the prices, pipeline constraints and interconnection queues.

“Tens of gigawatts of new generation from natural gas is likely at least five years away, if not more,” Smith said.

Table: Comparison of typical cost and flexibility characteristics for various gas generation technologies: Natural Gas Combined Cycle, Natural Gas Combustion Turbine, NGCT Aeroderivative, and Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engine plants. From Ascend Analytics’ report on thermal generation.

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 22/10/2025

Today on SHIFT KEY: we talk with the intrepid CEO of a company on a quest to slash the cost drilling boreholes for ground source heat pumps (aka geothermal heating & cooling). The prize? How we heat & cool every building! Listen @heatmap.news or wherever you get your pods. 🔗⤵️

Simply operating America’s buildings uses more than a third of the country’s energy. A major chunk of that is temperature control — keeping the indoors cool in the summer and warm in the winter. Heating eats into families’ budgets and burns a tremendous amount of fuel oil and natural gas. But what if we could heat and cool buildings more efficiently, cleanly, and cheaply?

On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse talk to Dulcie Madden, the founder and CEO of Dig Energy, a New Hampshire-based startup that is trying to lower the cost of digging geothermal wells scaled to serve a single structure. Dig makes small rigs that can drill boreholes for ground source heat pumps — a technology that uses the bedrock’s ambient temperature to heat and cool homes and businesses while requiring unbelievably low amounts of energy. Once groundsource wells get built, they consume far less energy than gas furnaces, air conditioners, or even air-dependent heat pumps.

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 20/10/2025

I recently co-founded Firma Power w/Scott Burger & Brent Alderfer, a new venture assembling portfolios of clean resources to deliver firm, load-enabling power to hyperscale data centers and other large loads. World-class analytics is our edge, and we want YOU to join the team. 🔌💡

Join Firma on our journey to commercialize load enabling clean firm power.

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 20/10/2025

This is utterly unconstitutional and un-American. Journalists identify 170 US citizens detained by immigration enforcement actions (~20 children), at least two dozen were prevented from contacting lawyers for at least a day. Blatant violations of Bill of Rights. www.propublica.org/article/immi...

Americans have been dragged, tackled, beaten, tased and shot by immigration agents. They’ve had their necks kneeled on. They’ve been held outside in the rain while in their underwear. At least three citizens were pregnant when agents detained them. One of those women had already had the door of her home blown off while Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem watched.

About two dozen Americans have said they were held for more than a day without being able to phone lawyers or loved ones.

Americans Detained: The government doesn’t track how many citizens are held by immigration agents. We found more than 170 cases this year where citizens were detained at raids and protests.
Held Incommunicado: More than 20 citizens have reported being held for over a day without being able to call their loved ones or a lawyer. In some cases their families couldn’t find them.
Cases Wilted: Agents have arrested about 130 Americans, including a dozen elected officials, for allegedly interfering with or assaulting officers, yet those cases were often dropped.

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 07/10/2025

The government’s own data rebuts Trump Admin claims that wind and solar are driving up electricity prices, Politico reports share.google/RTIXPPQMXrTH... “[T]he data say pretty much the opposite” of Trump & Secretary Wright’s claims.

Among the 22 states that drew higher-than-average shares of their power from wind and solar, 17 had below-average electricity prices in June, according to EIA data.

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 02/10/2025

Solar leads EU electricity generation as renewables hit 54% share.google/WEiX2aSdEwj9... 🔌💡 ☀️

According to new data from Eurostat, renewable energy sources generated 54% of the EU’s net electricity in Q2 2025, up from 52.7% year-over-year. The growth came mainly from solar, which produced 122,317 gigawatt-hours (GWh) – nearly 20% of the total electricity generation mix.

June 2025 was a milestone month: Solar became the EU’s single largest electricity source for the first time ever. It supplied 22% of all power that month, edging out nuclear (21.6%), wind (15.8%), hydro (14.1%), and natural gas (13.8%).

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 25/09/2025

Here's more on the progress of electrification around the world from @ember-energy.org's new report ember-energy.org/latest-insig... which we discuss on this week's Shift Key here heatmap.news/podcast

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 25/09/2025

In the Post (& elsewhere), Energy Secretary Wright continues to get basic facts wrong. He claims “We’ve been talking about ‘electrify everything’ for a while. Today, 15 percent of energy in manufacturing comes from electricity, same as it was 25 years ago.” False. Here's the real global data.

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 25/09/2025

This week on SHIFT KEY: A stack of electricity techs — solar, batteries, EVs etc. — seem to be displacing fossil fuels across China & the developing world. Is this the start of the "Electrotech Revolution"? Rob & I discuss the evidence with @kingsmillbond.bsky.social heatmap.news/podcast/shif... 🔌💡

Heatmap graphic shows a truck in China hauling a wind turbine tower with two wind turbines and mountains in the background.

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 22/09/2025

Well 🤬 www.nytimes.com/2025/09/17/c...

If global temperatures continue rising, virtually all the corals in the Atlantic Ocean will stop growing and could succumb to erosion by the end of the century, a new study finds.

The analysis of over 400 existing coral reefs across the Atlantic Ocean estimates that more than 70 percent of the region’s reefs will begin dying by 2040 even under optimistic climate warming scenarios.

And if the planet exceeds 2 degrees Celsius of warming above preindustrial temperatures by the end of the century, 99 percent of corals in the region would meet this fate. Today, the planet has warmed about 1.3 degrees Celsius over preindustrial temperatures.

The implications are grave.

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 10/09/2025

Do it! More than two gigawatts of round the clock emissions free power deliverable straight into NYC. Closing it was a huge mistake. Let's fix that mistake now. www.politico.com/news/2025/09... 🔌💡⚛️

Politico headline says "Indian Point owner floats restart of shuttered nuclear reactors."

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 10/09/2025

Electricity is getting more expensive—and the culprit, in much of the country, is the poles & wires. On Shift Key, Rob and I unpack why distribution utility regulation kinda sucks, why it's so important, and how to fix it so utilities have incentives to be more cost efficient and save consumers $ 🔌💡

Shift Key podcast episode titled Utility Regulation Really Sucks

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 13/08/2025

Today on SHIFT KEY Summer School: how do electricity markets work? I give @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social a primer on marginal generators, bid curves, and capacity markets. Listen @heatmap.news or wherever you get your podcasts. 🔌💡

Shift Key Summer School podcast episode: how do power markets work?

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 06/08/2025

Today on SHIFT KEY: Jody Freeman joins us to unpack Trump's moves to kill regulation of greenhouse gases from vehicles, power plants, and everything else. We unpack how the EPA is attacking the cornerstone finding that underpins all federal GHG regs under the Clean Air Act.

New SHIFT KEY episode: "Trump's Move to Kill the Clean Air Act's Climate Authority Forever"

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 30/07/2025

Today on an all new SHIFT KEY: why @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social and I are worried about a growing electricity affordability crisis. We break down several factors all-but-certain to drive up costs & how that will change American energy politics. Listen @heatmap.news or wherever you get your podcasts.

New SHIFT KEY episode: What We're Worried About Electricity Prices

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 25/07/2025

And here's @costasamaras.com with his own strong submission to the Podcast Oscars in the category "Best Post-OBBB Podcast on What's Next for Climate and Clean Energy Transition" www.latitudemedia.com/news/open-ci...

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 25/07/2025

Is decarbonization dead? @janeaflegal.bsky.social & I join Ezra Klein to talk through how Trump just shredded America's most ambitious climate policy, what survived, and where we go from here. Listen @nytimes.com or wherever you get your podcasts. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/25/o...

Screenshot of Jesse Jenkins on The Ezra Klein Show with headline "Is Decarbonization Dead?"

Screenshot of Jane Flegal on The Ezra Klein Show with headline "Is Decarbonization Dead?"

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 11/07/2025

Texas is the real model for American Energy Dominance. Trump is letting ideology triumph over pragmatism, while Texas continues to show what an all-of-the-above approach to harnessing energy resources can do for affordability, reliability, and economic growth www.reuters.com/sustainabili... 🔌💡

President Donald Trump claims that rapid adoption of solar and wind power has made U.S. electricity unstable and expensive, justifying his bid to end most subsidies for renewable energy.
But reliability has improved dramatically in the U.S. grid with the most renewable energy – in Texas - and electricity prices there are below the national average, according to regulatory filings and price data reviewed by Reuters. At the same time, some grids that rely primarily on fossil fuel generation have experienced reliability issues and surging prices.

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 09/07/2025

That is also relevant, but by that math, the difference due to hardware is about 60-70 cents/W, while the total difference in cost is much larger (e.g. $2.5-3/W in US vs $1-1.5/W in Germany). NREL bottom up analysis estimates soft costs other than labor for US resi. solar are ~$1.3/W!

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 09/07/2025

I make the case for local permitting reform to make distributed solar cheap in New Jersey. The same argument applies everywhere. Cut the insane red tape that is a big reason why rooftop solar costs 2-4x as much in the US as it does in other peer countries. www.njspotlightnews.org/2025/07/op-e... 🔌💡

$Gov. Murphy can act now to cut the red tape that is holding back rooftop solar and home battery installations for families across the state. Solar is exceedingly popular among New Jersey voters. Unfortunately, it remains far more expensive to install here than around the world. Take Australia, where households typically install solar panels for less than $1 per watt —while we typically pay about three times as much. And Australia isn’t unique. Across other peer countries, rooftop solar costs a fraction of what it does for New Jerseyans. We shouldn’t stand for that kind of price premium.$

One of the biggest reasons solar is pricier here is the time and complexity involved in permitting a project and connecting it to the grid. New Jersey has some of the longest residential solar permitting timelines and some of the most complicated and burdensome permitting requirements in the country. Each of our state’s 564 municipalities has a process, some requiring applicants to go to City Hall during limited opening times and wait in line to have applications processed manually. Permitting is so onerous in some communities that installers avoid them altogether.

This inefficiency isn’t just a headache — it’s a major cost driver. Permitting can add $3,800 to $4,500 to the cost of a typical rooftop solar system in New Jersey. For too many families, that’s the difference between going solar and giving up on the idea. It doesn’t have to be this way.

The Legislature just unanimously passed a bill (S-4100/A-5264) that would fast-track permits for rooftop solar and home batteries. All applicants would need to do is fill out standardized information online and click a button. And that’s exactly as easy as it should be. This type of “smart permitting” has a track record of safety and results, and is already in use in hundreds of communities around the country.

If we want to make rooftop solar and home battery installations easier and cheaper in New Jersey, smart permitting is a necessary first step, but we shouldn’t stop there. Our Board of Public Utilities should ensure utilities across the state offer swift timelines and fair prices to interconnect solar and battery projects to the grid. During its next session, the Legislature should also consider allowing families to opt for their rooftop solar and home battery systems to be inspected remotely using photos and videos, so they don’t have to take a day off work to wait around for an inspector, as well as clamping down on excessive permitting fees.

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 03/07/2025

6. The One Big "Beautiful" Bill increases U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by roughly 190 million metric tons per year in 2030 and 470 million tons in 2035—or about 2 percent of 2005 emissions in 2030 and 7 percent in 2035. #OBBB 🔌💡

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 03/07/2025

5. The One Big "Beautiful" Bill decreases clean electricity generation in 2035 by more than 820 terawatt-hours—more than the entire contribution of nuclear or coal to our electricity supply today. #OBBB 🔌💡

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 03/07/2025

4. The One Big "Beautiful" Bill reduces cumulative new solar capacity additions by ~29 gigawatts and wind capacity by ~43 gigawatts from 2025-2030, and by ~140 gigawatts (solar) and ~160 gigawatts (wind) through 2035. #OBBB 🔌💡

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 03/07/2025

3. The One Big "Beautiful" Bill reduce cumulative capital investment in U.S. electricity and clean fuels production by half a trillion dollars from 2025-2035. #OBBB 🔌💡

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 03/07/2025

2. The One Big "Beautiful" Bill increases average U.S. household energy costs by roughly $165 per household per year in 2030 and over $280 per household per year in 2035—an increase of about 7.5% in 2030 and over 13% in 2035. #OBBB 🔌💡

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 03/07/2025

1. The One Big "Beautiful" Bill raises U.S. household and business energy expenditures by $28 billion annually in 2030 and over $50 billion in 2035. #OBBB 🔌💡

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 02/07/2025

The change in emissions by sector plot was missing a key. Corrected version here

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 02/07/2025

Compared to what Trump can do via executive action alone, if the Senate-passed OBBB becomes law: 5. Reduces new solar capacity additions by ~29 gigawatts and wind capacity by ~43 gigawatts by 2030, and ~140 GW and ~160 GW in 2035. 🔌💡

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 02/07/2025

Compared to what Trump can do via executive action alone, if the Senate-passed OBBB becomes law: 4. Capital investment in US electricity supply and clean fuels production falls by half a trillion dollars through 2035. 🔌💡

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 02/07/2025

Compared to what Trump can do via executive action alone, if the Senate-passed OBBB becomes law: 3. The average US household will pay ~$165 more per year on energy bills in 2030 and over $280 per year in 2035* *a lower bound, w/out accounting for higher oil/gas prices due to increased use 🔌💡

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 02/07/2025

Compared to what Trump can do via executive action alone, if the Senate-passed OBBB becomes law: 2. US households & businesses will spend $28 billion more on energy annually in 2030 and $52 billion more in 2035. 🔌💡

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 02/07/2025

Compared to what Trump can do via executive action alone, if the Senate-passed OBBB becomes law: 1. US greenhouse gas emissions would increase by ~190 million metric tons per year in 2030 & 470 million tons in 2035 🔌💡

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 02/07/2025

REPEAT Project just completed our rapid analysis of the impacts of the Senate-passed version of the One Big "Beautiful" Bill (OBBB), which the House is considering now, on the US energy sector and emissions. Still working up full report, but here is a sneak peak... 🔌💡 🧵

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 30/06/2025

The IBEW thinks the One Big Horrible Bill sucks too. “Make no mistake, this bill will cost hundreds of thousands of good-paying construction jobs, billions of work hours, and hundreds of billions in lost wages and economic benefits to America’s middle class."

IBEW International President Kenneth W. Cooper issued the following statement on Senate Republicans’ draft reconciliation bill released Sunday night:

“This budget reconciliation bill is a direct attack on working families, shoveling tax breaks to the rich while turning its back on the people who power this country.

“The IBEW strongly opposes any proposal that guts infrastructure investment, especially plans like this one that sacrifice existing economic development while providing no clear benefit to working Americans. At a time when we should be investing in energy independence at home, this bill forces our economy to rely on foreign adversaries while dramatically increasing energy bills for every household and draining local communities of the jobs they rely on.

“Make no mistake, this bill will cost hundreds of thousands of good-paying construction jobs, billions of work hours, and hundreds of billions in lost wages and economic benefits to America’s middle class.

“IBEW members and every average American will pay the price as congressional Republicans abandon critical investments in American infrastructure and the energy independence they have been tripping over themselves to take credit for the last few years.

“That so many of these investments are in the rural areas and small towns left behind for generations is even more troubling.

“America’s working families deserve more.

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 28/06/2025

At a moment of rapid demand growth and a growing electricity affordability crisis, the Republican's One Big Horrible Bill will RAISE TAXES on wind & solar—the only new sources of electricity we are able to rapidly add to the US grid—in four different ways.

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 23/06/2025

This is how oil markets work, right? Very stable genius. 🔌💡 🛢️

Donald J Trump posts on Truth Social:

"To The Department of Energy: DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!"

And...

"EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I'M WATCHING! YOU'RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON'T DO IT."

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 23/06/2025

New York Governor Hochul directs New York Power Authority to build at least 1 gigawatt of new nuclear power! www.wsj.com/business/ene... (Your move, New Jersey?) 🔌💡⚛️

New York intends to build a large nuclear-power facility, the first major new U.S. plant undertaken in more than 15 years and a big test of President Trump's promise to expedite permitting for such projects.

Gov. Kathy Hochul said in an interview that she has directed the state's public electric utility to add at least 1 gigawatt of new nuclear-power generation to its aging fleet of reactors.

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 22/06/2025

Reposting for the New Yorkers out there. Similar advice for others across the region. 🔌💡

Tell your NYC friends to take the ConEd grid emergency texts seriously tomorrow

A 99% weather event *will cause rolling brownouts*

Mind the air too—dirty, emergency-only oil plants will be on full blast citywide. 4pm-7pm turn your house off & go out for dinner

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 20/06/2025

The Senate Parliamentarian advises that several provisions in the GOP's budget bill violate the Byrd Rule and cannot proceed, including repeal of EPA tailpipe regs, shortened judicial review for those willing to pay, ending authorization for IRA programs www.budget.senate.gov/ranking-memb... 🔌💡

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 19/06/2025

‘Throwing us off a cliff': Megabill could derail hundreds of planned clean energy projects www.politico.com/news/2025/06... POLITICO analysis: 794 planned clean electricity generation facilities — 3/4 in GOP districts — that could lose subsidies under the House bill. The Senate is debating changes.

3 in 4 clean electricity generation projects that could benefit from tax credits repealed by the House budget bill would be built in GOP House districts.

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 18/06/2025

"They're 80% of all the vehicles you'd find in a Richard Scarry book!" Today on SHIFT KEY, we dive into electrifying medium duty trucking—and why it makes so much sense—with Harbinger Motors CEO John Harris. Listen @heatmap.news or wherever you get your podcasts. heatmap.news/podcast/shif... 🔌💡 🔌🚗

Cover of Ricahrd Scarry's classic children's book "Cars And Trucks And Things That Go"

A Harbinger Motors electric medium duty delivery truck with Bimbo bakery livery.

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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 18/06/2025

Utilizing new streamlined permitting process, California approves world’s largest solar-plus-storage project www.renewableenergyworld.com/energy-stora... Giant 1.15 GW / 4.6 GWh battery + 1.15 GW solar project in Fresno County is first permitted under California expedited process. #Upshift 🔌💡

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