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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Russell took a win, but it barely moved the needle in the championship probabilities. Here they are, as we head to Malaysia: Antonelli: 91.9% (-0.4%) Russell: 7.2% (+2.7%) Hamilton: 0.6% (-1.0%) Leclerc: 0.1% (-0.1%) Norris: 0.1% (-1.3%) Verstappen: 0.0% Piastri: 0.0%

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Shorter races. More sprints. We all know where this is going.

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Forgot to post these after Monza, so here they are - The current championship probabilities: Antonelli: 81.4% (+17.3%) Hamilton: 9.5% (-7.2%) Russell: 6.0% (-2.7%) Norris: 2.2% (-2.9%) Leclerc: 0.9% (-4.3%) Verstappen: 0.1% (-0.1%) Piastri: 0.0% (-0.1%)

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

19 red flags in the F3 test in Madrid sounds like a lot. Until you consider that it was a six hour session. Driven by 16 / 17 year olds. In a new chassis. On a brand new circuit with zero rubber. In an active construction zone. In a dry region. With no vegetation to stifle dust.

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

The final Zandvoort GP (for now) is in the books. These are the championship probabilities after the race: Antonelli: 64.1% (+2.2%) Hamilton: 16.7% (-3.6%) Russell: 8.7% (+0.2%) Leclerc: 5.2% (+0.1%) Norris: 5.1% (+2.3%) Verstappen: 0.2% (-0.8%) Piastri: 0.1% (-0.3%)

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

I forgot to update after Hungary, but it's summer break, so.. Here are the championship probabilities right now: Antonelli: 61.9% (+10.2%) Hamilton: 20.3% (-4.1%) Russell: 8.5% (-5.6%) Leclerc: 5.1% (-0.1%) Norris: 2.8% (+1.1%) Verstappen: 1.0% (0.0%) Piastri: 0.4% (-0.9%)

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

The 2026 World Cup if Infantino had tried to pull this shit before the tournament.

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

It's looking more and more like F1 will pick between Imola and Portimão to replace Abu Dhabi, if the security situation around the Iran war rules out racing there. If they keep the race in December as the season finale, I think we'll be speaking Portuguese rather than Italian. 1/9 🧵

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

Antonelli has been noted by the stewards for a potential yellow flag infringement on the final run in Q3.

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Some chatter about Herta not getting the super license points he needs in F2. He can easily get those in FP1 runs for Cadillac. And failing that, they can petition the FIA for an exemption, and easily get it. The real obstacle to an F1 seat right now is his performance.

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

The Antonelli win and Russell DNF in Spa means some big moves in the championship probabilities: Antonelli: 51.7% (+13.2%) Hamilton: 24.4% (-1.4%) Russell: 14.1% (-10.2%) Leclerc: 5.2% (+1.4%) Norris: 1.7% (-1.1%) Piastri: 1.3% (-0.8%) Verstappen: 1.0% (+0.1%)

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

With the exception of Mercedes and Red Bull, all teammates are racing next to each other.

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Want to vaguepost about Formula 1, but don't want to waste time and energy writing it yourself? Well, do I have good news for you: The F1 Vaguepost Generator is here! jeppeolesen.github.io/f1-vaguepost...

jeppeolesen.github.io

F1 Vaguepost Generator

Random F1 rumours & cryptic paddock vagueposts. Deploy silly season chaos with one click.

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Kirsty Coventry should resign. Gianni Infantino should resign. Mohammed Ben Sulayem should resign. Global sports governance needs a complete reset.

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

Russell on the rise, Antonelli on the decline. Here are the championship probabilities after Silverstone: Antonelli: 38.5% (-9.3%) Hamilton: 25.8% (+5.0%) Russell: 24.3% (+7.3%) Leclerc: 3.8% (+1.4%) Norris: 2.8% (+0.6%) Piastri: 2.1% (-1.7%) Verstappen: 0.9% (-2.0%) 1/2 🧵

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

Russell snaps back and increases his chances. Here are the updated championship probabilities after Austria: Antonelli: 47.8% (+1.4%) Hamilton: 20.8% (-0.5%) Russell: 17.0% (+5.0%) Piastri: 3.8% (-0.4%) Verstappen: 2.9% (+0.5%) Leclerc: 2.4% (-2.0%) Norris: 2.2% (-1.2%) 1/2 🧵

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

On the back of 90%+ of the FIA General Assembly voting to end term limits, I've been getting questions on how and why. (Brace yourselves, this is a long one.) The easy answer is money.Let's dive into how the FIA President can quietly funnel money to the people who elect him. 1/16 🧵

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

90.71% of the FIA members voted for MBS' proposal to end term limits. Fun.

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

I didn't see that win coming. Mostly because I was busy at Le Mans 😅 But here are the updated champ probabilities: Antonelli: 46.4% (-5.4%) Hamilton: 21.3% (+10.1%) Russell: 12.0% (+2.6%) Leclerc: 4.4% (-2.2%) Piastri: 4.2% (-1.2%) Norris: 3.4% (+0.6%) Verstappen: 2.4% (+0.2%) 1/2 🧵

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

This is one of the most oldschool media centers I've been in 😅

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Bit delayed, because I'm currently in the media center at Le Mans, but don't worry: Here are the predictions after Monaco: Antonelli: 51.8% (+15.4%) Hamilton: 13.2% (+3.1%) Russell: 9.4% (-4.4%) Leclerc: 6.6% (-4.6%) Piastri: 5.4% (-0.5%) Norris: 2.8% (-3.6%) Verstappen: 2.2% (-2.3%) 1/2 🧵

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

McLaren's 1000th Grands Prix isn't in Monaco 😅 If we go by the official method of counting GPs, McLaren are on 998, and will hit 999 in Monaco. If we bend the rules a little, and count the times they've had a double DNS, their 1000th race was in Canada and Monaco will be the 1001st. 1/3 🧵

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 25/05/2026

Russell's DNF makes a significant dent in the championship probabilities after the race. Probabilities now, with changes since Miami: Antonelli: 40.7% (+13.2%) Russell: 14.7% (-3.2%) Leclerc: 12.7% (+1.1%) Hamilton: 12.1% (+2.6%) Norris: 6.3% (-2.3%) Verstappen: 5.0% (+0.8%) Piastri: 3.9% (-2.8%)

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 23/05/2026

Deploy antenna! (But in reality this is Bearman's front left floor stay detaching from the chassis)

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 23/05/2026

What are y'all doing Aston Martin?

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

By the time we get to FP2 in Monaco, it'll be 70 days since we had the last FP2. The last time was in Japan on 27 March. Two months and nine days without an FP2.

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

Last year I ran F1 championship simulations manually with a Python script. This year I built a proper site for it - 10,000 simulations per race, updated automatically after every round. These are the championship probabilities after Miami: 1/2

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

Could've had a wet race. Twists. Drama. Actual suspense. Instead we got... this.

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

Stefano Domenicali has been using Fan Voice data as proof that fans are enjoying F1 in 2026. But it's worth understanding what that data actually means. 1/4

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

It's race week. In ELMS that is. We're going to Paul Ricard this weekend. Weekend ticket including paddock access? €15 Online streaming? Free on FIAWEC+ Superclipping? None. Come join us.

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

Trying to land sponsors in motorsport is brutal. But if you're looking for an opportunity to get your brand in the top tiers of endurance racing, send me a DM 😅

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

Interesting point on today's schedule for the Presidency of the Republic of Turkey: 15:00 - Debut of the Formula 1 Türkiye GP

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

Following motorsports news this weekend has been disheartening. Reducing Juha Miettinen, who tragically passed away during the Nürburgring 24 Hours qualifiers on Saturday, to "a driver in Max Verstappen's race" in the hunt for clicks is disgraceful. 1/2

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

Gentle reminder, that even though F1 is on an involuntary break, we're going racing in European Le Mans Series this weekend in Barcelona. It's great racing. It's free to watch online. It's very affordable to get tickets. Come join us. You won't be disappointed.

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

People saying the F1 stewards are slow for issuing penalties a couple of laps after an incident should really check out IndyCar 😅

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Adrian Newey lasted 4 months as Aston Martin Team Principal - the shortest TP tenure in F1 history. Turns out one of the greatest car designers of all time just wants to design cars, instead of being a politician. Who knew? 🤷‍♂️

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

The stewards for the Chinese GP: Nish Shetty Matthew Selley Pedro Lamy Zheng Honghai

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

Schedule for the official press conferences at the Chinese GP: Thursday, 12:30 local: - Pierre Gasly (Alpine) - Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin) - Esteban Ocon (Haas) Thursday, 13:00 local: - Gabriel Bortoleto (Audi) - Max Verstappen (Red Bull) - Alex Albon (Williams) 1/2

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

F1's new 1-decimal gap display isn't just dumbing down the data. It creates a rounding problem that actually matters. Overtake mode activates within a second of the car ahead. So is 0.950 shown as 1.0? Is 1.049 shown as 1.0? Cars could look out of range or in range when they're not. 1/2

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

This one seems to have slipped under the radar a bit, but Iron Dames has announced it's evolving from a racing team into a "global movement" in 2026. 1/6 🧵

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 07/03/2026

James Wharton and Louis Sharp of Prema come together on lap 1 of the Formula 3 sprint race. With a team that's extremely strapped for cash at the moment, having two of your cars crash into each other is really not what you want to see.

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

While it may not seem like it, Newey's comments in yesterday's press conference were a broadside against Honda. And it is coming on the eve of the very first race of their partnership. 1/5 🧵

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 05/03/2026

The power and energy restrictions for the Australian GP:

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

Sky Sports have unveiled their plans for the 2026 Formula 1 coverage. Experts and analysts: Martin Brundle, Jenson Button, Nico Rosberg, Jacques Villeneuve, Naomi Schiff, Bernie Collins, Karun Chandhok, Jamie Chadwick and Anthony Davidson. Danica Patrick is no longer part of the lineup.

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

The stewards for the Australian GP will be Nish Shetty, Mathieu Remmerie, Pedro Lamy and Matthey Selley.

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

Schedule for the first official press conferences of the Formula 1 season: Thursday, 13:30 local: - Nico Hülkenberg (Audi) - Valtteri Bottas (Cadillac) - George Russell (Mercedes) Thursday, 14:00 local: - Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) - Oscar Piastri (McLaren) - Arvid Lindblad (VCARB) 1/2

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

In 2022, a missile hit an Aramco facility close enough to the Jeddah circuit that drivers could see smoke from the cockpit during FP1. There was a tense crisis meeting, several drivers expressed serious concerns about safety, and ultimately the decision was made to race anyway. 1/6

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

Beyond the geopolitical crisis and the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East, today's strikes on Iran and the retaliatory strikes that followed will have a direct impact on motorsport. 1/5

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Jeppe H. Olesen @jeppe.bsky.social · 26/02/2026

On the eve of the INDYCAR season, we have confirmation that Prema will not be on the grid, at least to start the year. It is another blow for their cash-strapped parent company, DC Racing Solutions, which has been forced to withdraw from several series due to financial difficulties. 1/2

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