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Jeff Gilchrist

@jeffgilchrist.bsky.social
7.1K followers 253 following 1.8K posts

PhD Biomedical researcher, data scientist, and finder of large prime numbers. Views are my own. Twitter: @jeffgilchrist Mastadon: @jeffgilchrist@mstdn.science COVID-19 guides, stats, calculators & 600+ scientific articles: covid.gilchrist.ca

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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 4h
Part 4 “Nuvaxovid: Effectiveness and Immunocompromised People” is now available from @paulseaman.bsky.social at ( bsky.app/profile/paul... ).
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Reposted by Jeff Gilchrist
Paul Seaman @paulseaman.bsky.social · 7h
Nuvaxovid: Effectiveness and Immunocompromised People This is part 4 of 7 from @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social and my document compiling available information setting out some of the main differences between #Nuvaxovid and the more common mRNA based #COVID vaccines.🧪🧵1/ (formerly #Novavax)
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Reposted by Jeff Gilchrist
Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Information for (or give to) Pharmacists on how to get Nuvaxovid in Canada #Nuvaxovid is a protein-based COVID vaccine approved for ages 12 and older and is back in Canada after 2 years now that Sanofi Canada took ownership of the vaccine. 🧵1/ (formerly #Novavax)
An image showing a white packaging box and a single pre-filled syringe for Sanofi's COVID-19 Vaccine, Adjuvanted Nuvaxovid (2026–2027 Formula)
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Reposted by Jeff Gilchrist
Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
You can also point pharmacies to this document if they have any questions about the public program, "Are you a pharmacy with a question about the Publicly Funded Vaccine Programs in Ontario?" See ( www.ontario.ca/files/2026-0... )
Flow chart showing how pharmacies can get in contact with the right people to learn more about the public vaccine program in Ontario.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
You can also point pharmacies to this document if they have any questions about the public program, "Are you a pharmacy with a question about the Publicly Funded Vaccine Programs in Ontario?" See ( www.ontario.ca/files/2026-0... )
Flow chart showing how pharmacies can get in contact with the right people to learn more about the public vaccine program in Ontario.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Since we will be posting each section from the document as separate threads, part 4 “Nuvaxovid: Effectiveness and Immunocompromised People” will be coming out shortly from @paulseaman.bsky.social and the link will be added to the end of this thread once it is posted.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
also another study showing a clear IgG4 rise in rhesus macaques whether they received three mRNA or two mRNA and then a Nuvaxovid booster, and moreso with a third Nuvaxovid ( www.science.org/doi/10.1126/... ) [Novavax affiliated].
science.org
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
• A study that generally accepts that the rise is detrimental to antibody function and presents data suggesting little or no such rise is seen with repeated Nuvaxovid boosters in humans ( www.journalofinfection.com/article/S016... ) [Novavax affiliated]
journalofinfection.com
Altered IgG4 antibody response to repeated mRNA versus recombinant protein SARS-CoV-2 vaccines
Dear Editor,
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
• Arguing that the IgG4 proportion seen following mRNA vaccination does NOT negatively affect antibody function ( pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC... ) [Moderna affiliated].
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
IgG4 Neutralization and Sustained Total IgG Fc-Effector Functions Following Repeated SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination with mRNA-1273
Detailed characterization of the antibody profile induced by SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines has shown that repeat dosing boosts all immunoglobulin G (IgG) subclasses, with a notable emergence of antigen-spe...
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
• Arguing that the higher IgG4 proportion seen does negatively affect antibody function ( www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... )
sciencedirect.com
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
• Linking higher IgG4 to increased breakthrough infection risk ( www.journalofinfection.com/article/S016... ) and ( www.nature.com/articles/s41... )
journalofinfection.com
Post-vaccination IgG4 and IgG2 class switch associates with increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections
Repeated COVID-19 mRNA vaccinations increase SARS-CoV-2 IgG4 antibodies, indicating extensive IgG class switching following the first booster dose. This shift in IgG subclasses raises concerns due to ...
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
• Showing the IgG4 rise after repeated mRNA doses and further boost after infection ( www.science.org/doi/10.1126/... )
science.org
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
This is a complex topic and larger scientific discussion that is still unfolding and beyond the scope of this information summary. However, if you are interested in further reading, there are some papers that can be referred to:
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
others say that even where more IgG4 is seen, overall antibody performance still looks strong and so the real-world importance is unclear. A few studies have suggested higher IgG4 levels are linked to a slightly higher chance of later infection.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
IgG4 antibodies are generally thought to be less good at performing certain jobs that antibodies are supposed to do. Some researchers worry this could weaken protection;
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Several studies show this tends to rise after multiple mRNA doses, often stronger in people who were vaccinated first and were later infected. So far, the same rise has not been seen with the protein-based Nuvaxovid vaccine.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
The second issue we are closely following is where, after receiving repeated mRNA COVID boosters, the share of a particular class of antibody called IgG4 is seen to increase.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
...yet the overall reactogenicity profile of mRNA vaccines stayed higher than what is typically seen with the protein-based Nuvaxovid.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Overall, this data suggests that the combined attempt at dose sparing and focusing the antigen in mRNA with mNEXSPIKE, without adding a new adjuvant, helped a little bit both with effectiveness and reducing local reactions...
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
In an earlier head-to-head trial, mNEXSPIKE produced higher antibody levels than the original full-spike Moderna vaccine and slightly less injection-site pain (68% vs 78%), but other side effects remained similar ( www.thelancet.com/journals/lan... ) [Moderna affiliated].
thelancet.com
Efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety of a next-generation mRNA-1283 COVID-19 vaccine compared with the mRNA-1273 vaccine (NextCOVE): results from a phase 3, randomised, observer-blind, active-controll...
mRNA-1283 was well-tolerated. The rVE and immunogenicity non-inferiority criteria were met, with higher antibody responses for mRNA-1283 versus mRNA-1273. The potential clinical benefit of mRNA-1283 v...
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
The corresponding figures for the updated Pfizer vaccine in the same study were about 48% and 46%. Protection against medically attended COVID-19 was roughly 42-50% with mNEXSPIKE and 41-44% with Pfizer ( pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC... ) [Moderna affiliated].
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Interim Effectiveness of 2025–2026 mRNA-1283 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccines Against COVID-19-Related Outcomes Among Adults Aged ≥ 65 Years in the United States
The 2025–2026 COVID-19 vaccine season introduced updated formulations targeting the LP.8.1 lineage. This interim analysis assessed absolute vaccine effectiveness (aVE) of mRNA-1283 and BNT162b2 on COV...
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Real-world data from the 2025-2026 season in adults 65 and older who received the updated mNEXSPIKE vaccine show reduced hospitalisations by about 59% (and 67% in 75 and older).
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Whether or not these differences with mNEXSPIKE have an effect on preventing severe disease is unclear, but it is an interesting difference to consider.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
At least one independent study found the response similar to moderna's full Spike vaccine ( www.nature.com/articles/s41... [Moderna affiliated] & academic.oup.com/jid/article/... ).
nature.com
Potent and dose-sparing next-generation SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, mRNA-1283, induces polyfunctional and durable T cell immunity - npj Vaccines
npj Vaccines - Potent and dose-sparing next-generation SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, mRNA-1283, induces polyfunctional and durable T cell immunity
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Studies have found that mNEXSPIKE also does create a useful CD4+ and CD8+ response, but of course again this is limited to the parts of the Spike protein that T cells are equipped to see, and the vaccine includes, so that the immune system can actually examine and learn about them.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Some of these antibodies are intended to tag parts of the Spike protein in an area (called S2) that is not included in the part used in mNEXTSPIKE (from an area called S1) ( journals.plos.org/plospathogen... ).
journals.plos.org
Determinants of natural killer cell-mediated antibody dependent cellular cytotoxicity in SARS-CoV-2 antibodies
Author summary While antibodies are best known for stopping viruses from entering cells, they also activate other arms of the immune system. One important function is their ability to signal immune ce...
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Once enough trackers are attached to a flag, a security team (various immune cells) can follow the signal coming from the tracker to the compromised house, and either demolish the house itself, or clear it out so the burglars can no longer use it as a base.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Non neutralizing antibodies are like tracking devices that stick to those flags.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
You can think of an infected cell as a house that has been taken over by burglars (the virus). The cell reacts by hanging the burglars’ flag (the Spike protein) out the windows to alert the immune system that the cell is infected.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
You can read more about the importance of non-neutralizing antibodies in controlling a COVID infection here ( www.nature.com/articles/s41... ).
nature.com
Beyond neutralization: Fc-dependent antibody effector functions in SARS-CoV-2 infection - Nature Reviews Immunology
In addition to antibody-mediated neutralization, Fc-dependent effector functions of antibodies directed to SARS-CoV-2 are emerging as an important factor in determining the outcome of infection. This ...
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
This is because the immune system can still take notice of other areas and target them in a way that helps control an active infection.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
This is accomplished by the immune system examining the entire Spike protein, including the parts that do not include any locks that keys can be made to defeat the virus itself.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
...may provide neutralization to more areas of the Spike protein, but also an additional layer of antibody protection that may help prevent severe disease.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
We are currently following two issues. The first issue is whether vaccines which include the full Spike protein (like Nuvaxovid and the original design mRNA vaccines, Spikevax and Comirnaty)...
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
We also wonder if using different vaccine types creates a diverse repertoire of antibodies, and in turn a different epitope mask may also be created and allow the immune system to epitope spread in a more comprehensive, diverse, or efficient way.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
...to more areas of the Spike protein, even if a large increase in the amount of total antibodies is not seen.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
While at this stage it is very difficult to examine this issue and come to any firm conclusions, it at least seems possible that using different vaccine types could help produce better quality antibodies...
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
This study also had some interesting suggestions on antibody decay which we discuss in the “Durability” section below.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Viral vector COVID vaccines such as those from AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson use another virus (adenovirus from chimpanzee or human) as a delivery system to introduce a piece of DNA encoding the COVID spike protein antigen into the cells of the vaccinated individual.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
After viral vector-type vaccines, a Nuvaxovid booster produced higher neutralization titers and cellular responses at days 28, 84, and 242 than getting another viral vector vaccine ( www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... ) [Novavax affiliated].
tandfonline.com
Pivoting to protein: the immunogenicity and safety of protein-based NVX-CoV2373 as a heterologous booster for inactivated and viral vector COVID-19 vaccines
Approximately half of the 13.4 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses administered globally were inactivated or viral vector platforms. The harmonization and optimization of vaccine regimens has become a k...
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Yet another study reviewed data generated from other prior studies.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Antibody levels at 132 and 236 days were similar for all vaccination combinations. The study also found fewer moderate and severe systemic adverse effects for Nuvaxovid than Pfizer mRNA
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
This study found that getting Nuvaxovid as a second dose elicited the highest humoral and peak cellular immune responses at 14 days and led to an 89% reduction in risk of self-reported breakthrough infection, up to 132 days.
Fig. 4 Kaplan–Meier curves for risk of self-reported SARS-CoV-2 infections during follow-up. B: seronegative participants randomised before 29th November 2021;
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Another early study enrolled 143 participants, 26% of whom were confirmed to have had a previous infection. 8 weeks after receiving a first dose of Pfizer mRNA, they received either a second mRNA dose or Nuvaxovid ( www.journalofinfection.com/article/S016... ).
journalofinfection.com
Reactogenicity, immunogenicity and breakthrough infections following heterologous or fractional second dose COVID-19 vaccination in adolescents (Com-COV3): A randomised controlled trial
Heterologous and fractional dose COVID-19 vaccine schedules in adolescents are safe, well-tolerated and immunogenic. The enhanced performance of the heterologous schedule using NVX-CoV2373 against the...
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Interestingly, someone previously infected who received 3 mRNA doses and who then received a Nuvaxovid booster dose did not significantly increase their antibody levels, but instead seemed to hit some kind of ceiling:
Fig. 2 Anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (anti-S) IgG antibody kinetics, stratified by previous SARS-CoV-2 infection status. Anti-S antibody titers in samples obtained from 41 participants before fourth dose (T0) and 3 weeks (T1) and 3 months (T2) after the fourth dose. Median titers (black bars) are shown numerically. P-value resulting from Wilcoxon test (*p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001).
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
This study found that neutralization levels against BA.5 increased after the Nuvaxovid dose by: 3.8x = 2 mRNA + Nuvaxovid 2.5x = 3 mRNA + Nuvaxovid (not previously infected) 1.4x = 3 mRNA + Nuvaxovid (previously infected)
Fig. 1 Neutralization titers against wild-type Wuhan-1 strain and Omicron subvariants BA.1 and BA.5 in individuals who received the third or fourth dose vaccination with NVX-CoV2373. In panel A, upper part shows neutralization titers against wild-type Wuhan-1 strain and Omicron subvariants BA.1 and BA.5 in six infection-naive individuals before (T0) and at three weeks (T1) after the third dose of vaccination with NVX-CoV2373 excluding three anti-N antibody-positive recipients. Lower part of panel A shows neutralization titers against wild-type Wuhan-1 strain and Omicron subvariants BA.1 and BA.5 in nine infection-naive and nine prior-infected individuals before (T0) and at three weeks (T1) after the fourth dose of vaccination with NVX-CoV2373. Fold-changes of geometric mean titers are presented in panel A. In Panel B, neutralizing antibody titers against wild-type Wuhan-1 strain and Omicron subvariants BA.1 and BA.5 are compared at each time point (T0 and T1) depending on prior infection and vaccine dose (third versus fourth). Median titers (horizontal black lines) are presented with the median titer values. The median neutralizing titer (ND50) was defined as the concentration of the antibodies that reduced the number of viruses by 50%.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Another early study looked at neutralization against the BA.1 and BA.5 variants for people who had 2 mRNA or 3 mRNA doses and then received a third or fourth Nuvaxovid booster dose ( www.journalofinfection.com/article/S016... ).
journalofinfection.com
Cross-neutralization of Omicron subvariants after heterologous NVX-CoV2373 boosters: Comparison between prior SARS-CoV-2-infected and infection-naive individuals
Since the first emergence in November 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant had become the dominant strain worldwide, leading to a large increase in the number of COVID-19 cases. After then...
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
...but after two initial doses of Nuvaxovid those who received either a third homologous Nuvaxovid dose or heterogeneous mRNA vaccine dose saw significantly better neutralization against BA.2 (turquoise):
Fig. 3. Administration of a booster dose rescues neutralization potency against Omicron sublineages for all vaccines.
Plasma neutralizing antibody titers elicited by COVID-19 vaccine boosters determined using SARS-CoV-2 S VSV pseudotypes and VeroE6/TMPRSS2 as target cells. Three-dose (3×) mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2 samples (n = 13) were donated 13 to 97 days (mean, 30) after third dose; 2× NVX-CoV2373 plus 1× BNT162b2 or NVX-CoV2373 samples (n = 5) were donated 14 to 20 days (mean, 15) after third dose; 1× Ad26.COV2.S plus 1× Ad26.COV2.S or BNT162b2 samples (n = 14) were donated 12 to 16 days (mean, 14) after second dose; 2× AZD1222 plus 1× BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 samples (n = 18) were donated 30 to 123 days (mean, 87) after third dose; 2× Sputnik V plus 1× AZD1222 or BNT162b2 samples (n = 14) were donated 45 to 60 days after third dose; and 2× BBIBP-CorV plus 1× BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 samples (n = 18) were donated 29 to 89 days (mean, 50) after third dose. Individual points are representative geometric mean titers from two to four independent experiments consisting of two replicates each. Bars represent geometric means, and error bars represent geometric standard deviations for each group. Statistical significance between groups of paired data was determined by Wilcoxon rank sum test. **P < 0.01; ***P < 0.001; ****P < 0.0001. Patient demographics are shown in table S4. Normalized curves and fits are shown in fig. S8.
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Interestingly, while the study found that neutralization dropped off significantly when looking at two doses of any vaccine, and administering a third dose of mRNA vaccine restored protection somewhat (navy blue)...
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Jeff Gilchrist @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
For example, one small early study looked at how well the blood from people who had been infected or vaccinated with various combinations of vaccines could neutralize early Omicron variants, up to BA.5 ( www.science.org/doi/10.1126/... ).
science.org
Omicron spike function and neutralizing activity elicited by a comprehensive panel of vaccines
The increasingly prevalent Omicron BA.4/BA.5 sublineages exhibit enhanced receptor binding and escape from neutralizing antibodies.
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