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Jeff Frankel

@jefffrankel.bsky.social
1.3K followers 11 following 43 posts

Prof at Harvard Kennedy School. Associate at NBER. Past: Prof at UCB Econ & Member of President's CEA.

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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Oligarchy the origin of our political dysfunction? It's a problem, but more effect than cause. Inequality motivated Trump voters. A better candidate: confirmation bias + new technology enabling them to see only news they like. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2026/09/28/oligarchy-is-a-symptom-not-the-cause
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
US: China's yuan undervalued. + Treasury has joined Japan & Korea intervening in forex to boost the yen & won. All 3 Asians have Current Acct surpluses; US a deficit. But pushing on the exc.rate won’t help. Roots are in saving rates. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2026/08/17/undervalued-asian-currencies/
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Trump wants to paint the Old Exec Office Bldg (granite bldg next to the White House, housing the offices of the Veep, Council of Ec Advisers, NSC, NEC, etc) white. That might sound harmless, but Dorothy Robyn explains why it would be crazy. www.theatlantic.com/culture/2026/08/trump-eeob-paint/688200
theatlantic.com
Do Not Paint Granite!
The latest Trump renovation project would violate a basic rule of building maintenance.
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
50 years ago, in July 1976, five of us MIT students, including @paulkrugman, were working in Lisbon for the Banco de Portugal. That's Paul at the westernmost point of Europe, and with Andy Abel at the Tour de Belem
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
It is important like never before that we are all familiar with what is actually in the U.S. Constitution. Celebrate America 250 on July 4 by taking a free, short, nonpartisan HarvardX online course on the Constitution: bit.ly/FreeCourseHa... (click “audit” for free version)
bit.ly
HarvardX: American Government: Constitutional Foundations | edX
Learn how early American politics informed the U.S. Constitution and why its promise of liberty and equality has yet to be fully realized.
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
6/24 Stockholm NBER ISOM featured co-authored papers by Korinek (IMF by LLM), Chari (risk-on risk-off), Kalemli-Ozcan (UIP by survey data), Hack (govt bonds vs. bank loans), Monet (BW), Muller ($ & global co-movement), Oki (Nigerian parallel fx mkt) & Arvai (gold & $) econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com
LLMs and IMF Advice, Dollar Trinity, Risk-On/Risk -Off and Loanly Govts: (Almost) Live-Blogging ISOM 2026 | Econbrowser
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
Democrats can campaign on affordability (disinflation) if they are specific. We need to reverse: Trump's tariffs, fiscal profligacy, war on Iran, war on renewable energy, war on immigrants, & war on the Fed. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2026/05/31/americans-cant-afford-trumps-inflationary-policies/
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Immigrant workers add more to the American supply of, e.g., housing than to demand -- & so lower the cost of living. Illegal immigrants often pay taxes & yet don’t claim the benefits -- good for the federal budget. The costs of Trump’s deportations are what is bad for the budget. prosyn.org/8kE6wlt
prosyn.org
Telling Americans the Truth About Immigration
Jeffrey Frankel tallies the costs and benefits of hosting newcomers and shows that hunting them down is much more expensive.
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Would Trump's proposed cap on credit card interest rates help small borrowers? They make credit unavailable to some. But unrestricted, some borrow more than they can pay back. On balance, caps help. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2026/02/19/usury-laws-and-trumps-proposed-cap-on-credit-card-interest-rates/
jeffrey-frankel.com
Usury laws and Trump’s proposed cap on credit card interest rates | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
Tariffs did little damage to US GDP & inflation in 2025. Explanatn? 1. Govt shutdown derailed late-year stats 2. Trump backed off the most extreme tariffs 3. Importers stockpiled ahead 4. Firms absorbed higher prices, rather than passing on fully to consumers. Probably in 2026. prosyn.org/2Rk6QVY
prosyn.org
Why Haven’t Trump’s Tariffs Crashed the US Economy?
Jeffrey Frankel explains why a disaster deferred in 2025 may not be a disaster denied in 2026.
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 07/12/2025
This year, the earliest sunset, at least in Boston, comes Monday, December 8, at 4:13:12 pm. (In London the sun will keep setting earlier, until December 12, at 3:51 pm.) From here on, darkness will start to arrive later.
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 30/11/2025
How will US debt unsustainability end? 6 possibilities: growth; Near-0 interest rates; Default; Inflation; Financial repression; Fiscal austerity. Probably austerity, but not for some years yet. By then, adjustment will be severe www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/11/30/how-will-unsustainable-us-debt-end/
jeffrey-frankel.com
How will unsustainable US debt end? | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Recessions don’t start under Dems, only Repubs. The odds 5 recessions fit by chance: only 3%. www.splinter.com/the-economy-does-better-under-democrats-but-most-people-dont-know-that www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2024/03/28/the-historical-puzzle-of-us-economic-performance-under-democrats-vs-republicans/
splinter.com
The Economy Does Better Under Democrats, but Most People Don’t Know That
Splinter is your home for news and opinions that challenge power in our political and economic system that's becoming more unhinged each and every day.
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
The riddle why voters vote against their own economic interest is especially puzzling under Trump. The answer may be the same as why they decide to go to the polls at all: econ self-interest is not the #1 motivation. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/09/29/do-voters-pursue-their-economic-self-interest/
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
Why do MAGAs vote against self-interest? E.g.,Trump health benefit cuts. Perhaps they are not trying to vote in their self-interest, but rather vote to express their culture. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-do-trump-supporters-vote-against-their-economic-interests-by-jeffrey-frankel-2025-09
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
“Is This the End of the US Dollar’s Exorbitant Privilege?”. Link to panel on $ at AEI 9/12/2025 with Obstfeld, Sheets, Lachman + me. www.aei.org/events/is-this-the-end-of-the-us-dollars-exorbitant-privilege/
aei.org
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
MAGA acts as if trying to bring back 1990, health-wise: they oppose vax, intl cooperatn, scientific research, ACA, public health...Child mortality was 34 x higher in 1900, life expectancy 40 x lower, & incomes < 1/7 of today’s. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/09/01/turning-medical-science-back-to-1900/
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 28/08/2025
Trump would take US back to McKinley's presidency. But life expectancy in 1900 was only 47 (vs 77 today). McKinley himself, when shot, died without anti-biotics. Medical science has come far since then, eg., new vaccines saved 154 m lives. MAGA is trying to reverse that progress. prosyn.org/SCOpb3N
prosyn.org
Make America Sick Again
Jeffrey Frankel marvels at the MAGA movement's apparent commitment to reversing progress on public health.
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
Ken Rogoff, Michael Strain, and others weigh in on the unprecedented pressure that Trump is applying to Jay Powell and the Fed. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-bank-of-trump-doc-2025-07
jeffrey-frankel.com
Trump’s Taylor Rule | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
"Taylor Rule" means central bank reaction function. What is Trump's Taylor Rule? A study of 145 times that he criticized the Fed, 2013-2025, shows: when president, he says interest rates are too high. He only says too low when out of office. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/07/30/trumps-taylor-rule/
jeffrey-frankel.com
Trump’s Taylor Rule | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
Am I the only one who worries that if we keep saying "TACO", it will goad Trump into following through on some of his absurdly high tariff threats?
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 28/06/2025
International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2025 www.nber.org/conferences/.... Thanks to CB of Croatia for hosting NBER ISOM in Split and to Kristin Forbes & Ricardo Reis for organizing the program.
nber.org
International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2025
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 01/06/2025
Stan Fischer has passed away. He was in a class of his own, as scholar, public servant, and human being. Written when he was appointed vice chair of the Fed: www.theguardian.com/business/2013/dec/27/stanley-fischer-great-choice-federal-reserve
theguardian.com
Why Stanley Fischer is a great choice for the Federal Reserve
Jeffrey Frankel: With his crisis-management experience and confidence in monetary policy, Stanley Fischer would be the perfect choice as Janet Yellen's deputy
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
The Newark airport mishap illustrates again the need for US air traffic control system reform, preferably by privatizing it. JF: www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2023/12/17/fix-air-traffic-control. Dorothy Robyn: www.brookings.edu/articles/president-trumps-air-traffic-control-plan-wont-fix-the-real-problem
brookings.edu
President Trump’s air traffic control plan won’t fix the real problem
The air traffic control system should be taken out of the FAA and allowed to operate like a public utility, urges Dorothy Robyn.
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 04/05/2025
Federico Sturzenegger, who is Minister for Deregulation in the cabinet of Javier Milei, spoke in the Forum at HKS, 5/1: “Beyond the Chain Saw: Deregulation in Argentina.” I think Argentina needed radical reform; but the chain saw in the US is pure destruction. iop.harvard.edu/events/beyon...
iop.harvard.edu
Beyond the Chain Saw: Deregulation in Argentina
View the livestreamMinister Federico Sturzenegger joins us for a discussion focused on the work of President Milei's administration in Argentina, with a particular focus on reduction of spending and r...
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
BEA advance GDP estimate: negative 0.3% SAAR. But we can't say this means a 2025 recession is likely. The GDP change was driven by a big rise in imports. That can result from a rise in income. Morover, in this case, it could be due to front-loading of imports ahead of tariffs. Gold in particular.
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
BEA will announce the advance estimate of Q1 GDP growth Friday April 30. Can one predict a recession? The most popular leading indicators are not necessarily the best places to look. Prediction markets now say 57% chance of recession. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/04/24/how-to-forecast-a-recession/
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
This is a rare time, when one can venture that recession odds > 50%. It hasn’t yet appeared in data, but leading indicators point that way. (Confidence, PMI, ...) More importantly, so do Trump policies. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/odds-of-a-us-recession-are-high-by-jeffrey-frankel-2025-04
project-syndicate.org
How to Forecast a Recession | by Jeffrey Frankel - Project Syndicate
Jeffrey Frankel , relying on several indicators, puts the odds of a prolonged US downturn as high as 60% for the coming year.
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 23/03/2025
The "Mar-A-Lago Accord" is a proposal, discussed by CEA Chair Miran & Treas. Secy. Bessent, to force foreign govts to agree to depreciate $ + restructure the US Treasury securities they hold. It's supposed to keep the $ as #1 reserve currency! www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/03/23/no-mar-a-lago-accord/
jeffrey-frankel.com
No Mar-a-Lago Accord | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
Most forget last 80 years of relative peace & prosperity were unique in human history. A rules-based internatl order, under US leadership, made it possible. Now Trump is throwing it all away. Video of an AEI panel on Trump implicatns for world economy. www.aei.org/events/trump-and-the-world-economy/
aei.org
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
Trump & his officials told us the economy would boom from day 1, but now say there will be some disruption in the short run. It's as if unremitting chaos in federal personnel policy & trade wars could be predicted to have negative effects on the economy. news.harvard.edu/gazette/stor...
news.harvard.edu
Where next for the U.S. economy? — Harvard Gazette
Harvard Kennedy School analyst Jeffrey Frankel includes trade war fallout among five recession threats on the horizon.
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
On 3/3, as Trump reiterated tariffs on Canada+Mex would go into effect at midnight, I wrote he would postpone at the last minute, as he had done in the past: www.koreaherald.com/article/10434345 But now, was I right or wrong? www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/03/06/trumps-far-out-negotiating-positions/
koreaherald.com
[Jeffrey Frankel] Trump’s imaginary victories
The torrent of far-out policy moves that Donald Trump has announced during the first month of his second presidency has left pundits struggling to find method to the madness. Some say it is all a nego...
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
With Krugman in Lisbon in 1976. USAID paid for our MIT team to advise Portugal's central bank, despite our youth. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/its-up-to-...
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
Musk says that with all the money he saves by spending cuts, he will be able to distribute the proceeds to American taxpayers by a rebate. Absurd!! www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/02/22/doge-dividends-are-daft/ www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/21/donald-trump-tax-cuts-elon-musk-doge-us-debt
jeffrey-frankel.com
DOGE dividends are daft | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
A small special interest blocks FAA privatization, impedes Air Traffic Control & allows crashes like Thursday's over the Potomac. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2023/12/17/fix-air-traffic-control/ www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-to-fix-its-broken-air-traffic-control-system-america-should-copy-the/
jeffrey-frankel.com
Fix Air Traffic Control ! | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 11/01/2025
Imagine a look-back on 2025 from 1/1/2026: A stock market crash precipitated by an intra-GOP budget fight & credit downgrade. Unexpected Trump reversals, e.g., on abortion & military interventions abroad. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/01/11/retrospective-on-the-first-year-of-trumps-second-term/
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 30/12/2024
In memorium. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2024/09/27/w...
jeffrey-frankel.com
What we now know about Jimmy Carter’s presidency | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
To my students, and all students everywhere: I wish you a happy winter break (except in the Southern Hemisphere, where I wish you a happy summer break). x.com/Kennedy_School
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
Trump threatens 100% tariff on the BRICS if they make a new currency. He needn’t have bothered: the BRICS currency is a chimera. Worse, indiscriminate US tariffs & sanctions could backfire. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2024/12/19/trump-threatens-tariffs-against-a-brics-chimera/ @ProSyn prosyn.org/lB8AcRg
jeffrey-frankel.com
Trump threatens tariffs against a BRICs chimera | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
Btw, has anyone noticed that it is illegal for Musk/DOGE to work for the government for free? cassidylawpllc.com/working-for-...
cassidylawpllc.com
Working for Free for the Government – There’s a Law About That – CASSIDY LAW PLLC
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
My Nov. blog called Musk's claim to be able to cut $2 trillion from USG spending a fantasy, especially if limited to non-defense discretionary spending. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2024/11/24/can-musk-find-2-trillion-in-spending-cuts-for-trump/ @ProSyn prosyn.org/QUXbckz .
jeffrey-frankel.com
Can Musk find $2 trillion in spending cuts for Trump? | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog
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Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 08/12/2024
This is my first post on Bluesky. It seems everyone I know is switching to it. Fact: Tonight, Dec. 8, the sun will set earlier than on any other day of the year (at least, in the US Northeast). From here on out, things should better.
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