Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Oligarchy the origin of our political dysfunction? It's a problem, but more effect than cause. Inequality motivated Trump voters. A better candidate: confirmation bias + new technology enabling them to see only news they like. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2026/09/28/oligarchy-is-a-symptom-not-the-cause 000
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 17/08/2026US: China's yuan undervalued. + Treasury has joined Japan & Korea intervening in forex to boost the yen & won. All 3 Asians have Current Acct surpluses; US a deficit. But pushing on the exc.rate won’t help. Roots are in saving rates. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2026/08/17/undervalued-asian-currencies/ 000
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 08/08/2026Trump wants to paint the Old Exec Office Bldg (granite bldg next to the White House, housing the offices of the Veep, Council of Ec Advisers, NSC, NEC, etc) white. That might sound harmless, but Dorothy Robyn explains why it would be crazy. www.theatlantic.com/culture/2026/08/trump-eeob-paint/688200theatlantic.comDo Not Paint Granite!The latest Trump renovation project would violate a basic rule of building maintenance. 021
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 04/07/202650 years ago, in July 1976, five of us MIT students, including @paulkrugman, were working in Lisbon for the Banco de Portugal. That's Paul at the westernmost point of Europe, and with Andy Abel at the Tour de Belem 010
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 01/07/2026It is important like never before that we are all familiar with what is actually in the U.S. Constitution. Celebrate America 250 on July 4 by taking a free, short, nonpartisan HarvardX online course on the Constitution: bit.ly/FreeCourseHa... (click “audit” for free version)bit.lyHarvardX: American Government: Constitutional Foundations | edXLearn how early American politics informed the U.S. Constitution and why its promise of liberty and equality has yet to be fully realized. 031
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 30/06/20266/24 Stockholm NBER ISOM featured co-authored papers by Korinek (IMF by LLM), Chari (risk-on risk-off), Kalemli-Ozcan (UIP by survey data), Hack (govt bonds vs. bank loans), Monet (BW), Muller ($ & global co-movement), Oki (Nigerian parallel fx mkt) & Arvai (gold & $) econbrowser.com/archives/202...econbrowser.comLLMs and IMF Advice, Dollar Trinity, Risk-On/Risk -Off and Loanly Govts: (Almost) Live-Blogging ISOM 2026 | Econbrowser 000
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 31/05/2026Democrats can campaign on affordability (disinflation) if they are specific. We need to reverse: Trump's tariffs, fiscal profligacy, war on Iran, war on renewable energy, war on immigrants, & war on the Fed. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2026/05/31/americans-cant-afford-trumps-inflationary-policies/ 040
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 23/03/2026Immigrant workers add more to the American supply of, e.g., housing than to demand -- & so lower the cost of living. Illegal immigrants often pay taxes & yet don’t claim the benefits -- good for the federal budget. The costs of Trump’s deportations are what is bad for the budget. prosyn.org/8kE6wltprosyn.orgTelling Americans the Truth About ImmigrationJeffrey Frankel tallies the costs and benefits of hosting newcomers and shows that hunting them down is much more expensive. 111
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 19/02/2026Would Trump's proposed cap on credit card interest rates help small borrowers? They make credit unavailable to some. But unrestricted, some borrow more than they can pay back. On balance, caps help. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2026/02/19/usury-laws-and-trumps-proposed-cap-on-credit-card-interest-rates/jeffrey-frankel.comUsury laws and Trump’s proposed cap on credit card interest rates | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog 011
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 29/12/2025Tariffs did little damage to US GDP & inflation in 2025. Explanatn? 1. Govt shutdown derailed late-year stats 2. Trump backed off the most extreme tariffs 3. Importers stockpiled ahead 4. Firms absorbed higher prices, rather than passing on fully to consumers. Probably in 2026. prosyn.org/2Rk6QVYprosyn.orgWhy Haven’t Trump’s Tariffs Crashed the US Economy?Jeffrey Frankel explains why a disaster deferred in 2025 may not be a disaster denied in 2026. 128424
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 07/12/2025This year, the earliest sunset, at least in Boston, comes Monday, December 8, at 4:13:12 pm. (In London the sun will keep setting earlier, until December 12, at 3:51 pm.) From here on, darkness will start to arrive later. 000
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 30/11/2025How will US debt unsustainability end? 6 possibilities: growth; Near-0 interest rates; Default; Inflation; Financial repression; Fiscal austerity. Probably austerity, but not for some years yet. By then, adjustment will be severe www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/11/30/how-will-unsustainable-us-debt-end/jeffrey-frankel.comHow will unsustainable US debt end? | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog 012
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 12/11/2025Recessions don’t start under Dems, only Repubs. The odds 5 recessions fit by chance: only 3%. www.splinter.com/the-economy-does-better-under-democrats-but-most-people-dont-know-that www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2024/03/28/the-historical-puzzle-of-us-economic-performance-under-democrats-vs-republicans/splinter.comThe Economy Does Better Under Democrats, but Most People Don’t Know ThatSplinter is your home for news and opinions that challenge power in our political and economic system that's becoming more unhinged each and every day. 131
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 30/09/2025The riddle why voters vote against their own economic interest is especially puzzling under Trump. The answer may be the same as why they decide to go to the polls at all: econ self-interest is not the #1 motivation. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/09/29/do-voters-pursue-their-economic-self-interest/ 020
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 26/09/2025Why do MAGAs vote against self-interest? E.g.,Trump health benefit cuts. Perhaps they are not trying to vote in their self-interest, but rather vote to express their culture. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-do-trump-supporters-vote-against-their-economic-interests-by-jeffrey-frankel-2025-09 000
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 10/09/2025“Is This the End of the US Dollar’s Exorbitant Privilege?”. Link to panel on $ at AEI 9/12/2025 with Obstfeld, Sheets, Lachman + me. www.aei.org/events/is-this-the-end-of-the-us-dollars-exorbitant-privilege/aei.org 000
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 01/09/2025MAGA acts as if trying to bring back 1990, health-wise: they oppose vax, intl cooperatn, scientific research, ACA, public health...Child mortality was 34 x higher in 1900, life expectancy 40 x lower, & incomes < 1/7 of today’s. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/09/01/turning-medical-science-back-to-1900/ 000
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 28/08/2025Trump would take US back to McKinley's presidency. But life expectancy in 1900 was only 47 (vs 77 today). McKinley himself, when shot, died without anti-biotics. Medical science has come far since then, eg., new vaccines saved 154 m lives. MAGA is trying to reverse that progress. prosyn.org/SCOpb3Nprosyn.orgMake America Sick AgainJeffrey Frankel marvels at the MAGA movement's apparent commitment to reversing progress on public health. 010
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 01/08/2025Ken Rogoff, Michael Strain, and others weigh in on the unprecedented pressure that Trump is applying to Jay Powell and the Fed. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-bank-of-trump-doc-2025-07jeffrey-frankel.comTrump’s Taylor Rule | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog 010
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 01/08/2025"Taylor Rule" means central bank reaction function. What is Trump's Taylor Rule? A study of 145 times that he criticized the Fed, 2013-2025, shows: when president, he says interest rates are too high. He only says too low when out of office. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/07/30/trumps-taylor-rule/jeffrey-frankel.comTrump’s Taylor Rule | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog 000
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 15/07/2025Am I the only one who worries that if we keep saying "TACO", it will goad Trump into following through on some of his absurdly high tariff threats? 000
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 28/06/2025International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2025 www.nber.org/conferences/.... Thanks to CB of Croatia for hosting NBER ISOM in Split and to Kristin Forbes & Ricardo Reis for organizing the program.nber.orgInternational Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2025 010
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 01/06/2025Stan Fischer has passed away. He was in a class of his own, as scholar, public servant, and human being. Written when he was appointed vice chair of the Fed: www.theguardian.com/business/2013/dec/27/stanley-fischer-great-choice-federal-reservetheguardian.comWhy Stanley Fischer is a great choice for the Federal ReserveJeffrey Frankel: With his crisis-management experience and confidence in monetary policy, Stanley Fischer would be the perfect choice as Janet Yellen's deputy 0254
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 09/05/2025The Newark airport mishap illustrates again the need for US air traffic control system reform, preferably by privatizing it. JF: www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2023/12/17/fix-air-traffic-control. Dorothy Robyn: www.brookings.edu/articles/president-trumps-air-traffic-control-plan-wont-fix-the-real-problembrookings.eduPresident Trump’s air traffic control plan won’t fix the real problemThe air traffic control system should be taken out of the FAA and allowed to operate like a public utility, urges Dorothy Robyn. 000
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 04/05/2025Federico Sturzenegger, who is Minister for Deregulation in the cabinet of Javier Milei, spoke in the Forum at HKS, 5/1: “Beyond the Chain Saw: Deregulation in Argentina.” I think Argentina needed radical reform; but the chain saw in the US is pure destruction. iop.harvard.edu/events/beyon...iop.harvard.eduBeyond the Chain Saw: Deregulation in ArgentinaView the livestreamMinister Federico Sturzenegger joins us for a discussion focused on the work of President Milei's administration in Argentina, with a particular focus on reduction of spending and r... 100
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 30/04/2025BEA advance GDP estimate: negative 0.3% SAAR. But we can't say this means a 2025 recession is likely. The GDP change was driven by a big rise in imports. That can result from a rise in income. Morover, in this case, it could be due to front-loading of imports ahead of tariffs. Gold in particular. 000
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 28/04/2025BEA will announce the advance estimate of Q1 GDP growth Friday April 30. Can one predict a recession? The most popular leading indicators are not necessarily the best places to look. Prediction markets now say 57% chance of recession. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/04/24/how-to-forecast-a-recession/ 000
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 22/04/2025This is a rare time, when one can venture that recession odds > 50%. It hasn’t yet appeared in data, but leading indicators point that way. (Confidence, PMI, ...) More importantly, so do Trump policies. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/odds-of-a-us-recession-are-high-by-jeffrey-frankel-2025-04project-syndicate.orgHow to Forecast a Recession | by Jeffrey Frankel - Project SyndicateJeffrey Frankel , relying on several indicators, puts the odds of a prolonged US downturn as high as 60% for the coming year. 110
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 23/03/2025The "Mar-A-Lago Accord" is a proposal, discussed by CEA Chair Miran & Treas. Secy. Bessent, to force foreign govts to agree to depreciate $ + restructure the US Treasury securities they hold. It's supposed to keep the $ as #1 reserve currency! www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/03/23/no-mar-a-lago-accord/jeffrey-frankel.comNo Mar-a-Lago Accord | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog 000
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 21/03/2025Most forget last 80 years of relative peace & prosperity were unique in human history. A rules-based internatl order, under US leadership, made it possible. Now Trump is throwing it all away. Video of an AEI panel on Trump implicatns for world economy. www.aei.org/events/trump-and-the-world-economy/aei.org 010
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 21/03/2025 Trump & his officials told us the economy would boom from day 1, but now say there will be some disruption in the short run. It's as if unremitting chaos in federal personnel policy & trade wars could be predicted to have negative effects on the economy. news.harvard.edu/gazette/stor...news.harvard.eduWhere next for the U.S. economy? — Harvard GazetteHarvard Kennedy School analyst Jeffrey Frankel includes trade war fallout among five recession threats on the horizon. 000
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 07/03/2025On 3/3, as Trump reiterated tariffs on Canada+Mex would go into effect at midnight, I wrote he would postpone at the last minute, as he had done in the past: www.koreaherald.com/article/10434345 But now, was I right or wrong? www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/03/06/trumps-far-out-negotiating-positions/koreaherald.com[Jeffrey Frankel] Trump’s imaginary victoriesThe torrent of far-out policy moves that Donald Trump has announced during the first month of his second presidency has left pundits struggling to find method to the madness. Some say it is all a nego... 022
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 03/03/2025With Krugman in Lisbon in 1976. USAID paid for our MIT team to advise Portugal's central bank, despite our youth. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/its-up-to-... 000
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 22/02/2025Musk says that with all the money he saves by spending cuts, he will be able to distribute the proceeds to American taxpayers by a rebate. Absurd!! www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/02/22/doge-dividends-are-daft/ www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/21/donald-trump-tax-cuts-elon-musk-doge-us-debtjeffrey-frankel.comDOGE dividends are daft | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog 010
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 31/01/2025A small special interest blocks FAA privatization, impedes Air Traffic Control & allows crashes like Thursday's over the Potomac. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2023/12/17/fix-air-traffic-control/ www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-to-fix-its-broken-air-traffic-control-system-america-should-copy-the/jeffrey-frankel.comFix Air Traffic Control ! | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog 010
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 11/01/2025Imagine a look-back on 2025 from 1/1/2026: A stock market crash precipitated by an intra-GOP budget fight & credit downgrade. Unexpected Trump reversals, e.g., on abortion & military interventions abroad. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/01/11/retrospective-on-the-first-year-of-trumps-second-term/ 001
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 30/12/2024In memorium. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2024/09/27/w...jeffrey-frankel.comWhat we now know about Jimmy Carter’s presidency | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog 000
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 20/12/2024To my students, and all students everywhere: I wish you a happy winter break (except in the Southern Hemisphere, where I wish you a happy summer break). x.com/Kennedy_School 010
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 20/12/2024Trump threatens 100% tariff on the BRICS if they make a new currency. He needn’t have bothered: the BRICS currency is a chimera. Worse, indiscriminate US tariffs & sanctions could backfire. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2024/12/19/trump-threatens-tariffs-against-a-brics-chimera/ @ProSyn prosyn.org/lB8AcRgjeffrey-frankel.comTrump threatens tariffs against a BRICs chimera | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog 000
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 20/12/2024Btw, has anyone noticed that it is illegal for Musk/DOGE to work for the government for free? cassidylawpllc.com/working-for-...cassidylawpllc.comWorking for Free for the Government – There’s a Law About That – CASSIDY LAW PLLC 010
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 20/12/2024My Nov. blog called Musk's claim to be able to cut $2 trillion from USG spending a fantasy, especially if limited to non-defense discretionary spending. www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2024/11/24/can-musk-find-2-trillion-in-spending-cuts-for-trump/ @ProSyn prosyn.org/QUXbckz .jeffrey-frankel.comCan Musk find $2 trillion in spending cuts for Trump? | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog 011
Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 08/12/2024 This is my first post on Bluesky. It seems everyone I know is switching to it. Fact: Tonight, Dec. 8, the sun will set earlier than on any other day of the year (at least, in the US Northeast). From here on out, things should better. 151