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John M. Drake

@jdrakephd.bsky.social
1.2K followers 81 following 111 posts

Professor of Ecology at the University of Georgia. Views are my own. jdrakephd.substack.com

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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Tampa had two local dengue cases in a decade. Now it has 223, nearly all DENV-2 brought in from Cuba's epidemic. Three counties are under an emergency declaration. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
Florida Counties Declare Emergencies As Local Dengue Hits A Record
Three Tampa Bay counties are under emergency orders as Florida logs a record 252 locally acquired dengue cases. What the orders do and what drove the outbreak.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Kenya's first Ebola patient crossed Uganda's closed border, flew to Nairobi in the last days of a fatal infection clearing airport screening on arrival. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
Kenya’s First Ebola Patient Flew To Nairobi Two Days Before He Died
Kenya's first Ebola patient flew from Entebbe to Nairobi in the final days of a fatal illness. An epidemiologist explains what that means for contacts.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
It was a real pleasure to interview my PhD advisor, David Lodge, for the latest episode of Big Biology. We talked conservation, invasive species, and the overall arc of a career spent trying to understand and protect freshwater ecosystems. bigbiology.substack.com/p/conservati...
bigbiology.substack.com
Conservation in a cup with David Lodge
How do you find an invasive species that no net can catch?
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I never imagined I'd be commenting on Taylor Swift's latest music video… but here I am. The term 'patient zero' began as a typo. Her video knows more than the lyrics do. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
Taylor Swift's 'Patient Zero' Gets The Epidemiology Wrong. Her Video Gets It Right
Taylor Swift's 'Patient Zero' inverts the term's meaning — and her video goes further. The real history: a misread letter, a scapegoat, a posthumous vindication.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Since a paper with Patrick Stephens, I've thought the emergence story was more complicated. A Nature study of 58,319 records finds the maps mostly show where clinics are. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
Far From A Hospital, Even A Deadly Outbreak May Go Undetected
New research on 58,319 infection records finds the geography of emerging disease tracks healthcare access more than deforestation or climate change
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
A handheld bird flu test nears USDA approval. When to swab is the harder problem. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
Bird Flu Surveillance Is A Collective Action Problem. USDA Can Fix It
A handheld H5N1 test nears USDA approval. Challenge trials show ducks and chickens need opposite testing strategies, complicating a new waterfowl alert system.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Did Congo's Ebola outbreak jump from an animal, or from a survivor of an earlier one? The first genomes out now in Nature Medicine answer that. They can't yet say when it began. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
Congo's Ebola Epidemic Began With A Fresh Jump From An Animal. Dating It Will Take More Genomes
The first genomes from Congo's Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak point to a recent animal spillover, but are too few to date when the jump happened.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Raw camel milk, sold and drunk unpasteurized, is a daily staple and a medicine. New in Social Science & Medicine, led by Lauren Carruth: doi.org/10.1016/j.so...
doi.org
Redirecting
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
In eastern Ethiopia, zoonotic risk isn't only biological. Our new study finds conflict, displacement, and Saudi livestock bans push people, camels, and wildlife together in informal camel economies that sit almost entirely outside disease surveillance.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
And how big is it? WHO told me, in an unpublished estimate, it's likely 3-4x the 3,822 confirmed cases, and Congo is finding fewer than half of them. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
Congo Is Counting Fewer Than Half Its Ebola Cases
Congo has counted 3,822 Ebola cases. WHO’s own unpublished estimate puts the outbreak three to four times larger, above 10,000 infections.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
When did Congo's Ebola outbreak really start? A field study puts 500+ cases in Mongbwalu back to January, months before it was declared and earlier than any model places it. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
The Bundibugyo Ebola Outbreak Congo Declared In May Likely Began In January
A field study found more than 500 Bundibugyo Ebola cases in Mongbwalu from mid-January, months before Congo declared the outbreak and earlier than any model suggested.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
A cancer usually dies with its host. Four times it hasn't, spreading between animals: in dogs, Tasmanian devils, clams, and now a catfish. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
Scientists Just Discovered A Contagious Cancer In A Catfish, The Fourth Known To Science. Meet The Other Three
Only four transmissible cancers are known, contagious cell lineages that spread between animals. Meet the dog, devil and shellfish cancers behind the catfish.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
A contagious cancer is spreading through catfish in a Vermont lake, its tumor cells passing fish to fish. The fourth of its kind ever found, now tracked through a fishing app. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
Scientists Discover The Fourth Transmissible Cancer Known To Science
Scientists found the fourth type of transmissible cancer, and the first in a fish: a melanoma whose tumor cells spread between catfish in a Vermont lake.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Textbook coevolution: tightly matched species pairs. Real plant–pollinator networks: specialists visit generalists, and abundance predicts who meets whom better than trait matching does. New Big Biology ep with Diego Vázquez, hosted with Marty Martin. 🎧 bigbiology.substack.com/p/a-coevolut...
bigbiology.substack.com
A coevolutionary conundrum (Ep 152)
When a bee visits a flower, what decides the match?
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
What's the best way to lead a paper discussion so it doesn't die in silence? My answer, after years of getting it wrong: start with a summary, plan the discussion's life cycle, and make disagreement earn its place. New in BioScience. doi.org/10.1093/bios...
doi.org
Three rules for leading a paper discussion
Silence is the sound of a seminar no one is steering, and for my first years as a professor, I was the one who should have been steering it. The course was
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
This summer's cyclospora outbreak took two months to trace. Mastercard patented a tool to catch outbreaks like it in 2014. Shelved, never used. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
Mastercard Patented A Tool That Could Have Cracked This Summer's Cyclospora Outbreak. It Was Never Deployed
Finding the lettuce took days. Finding Taco Bell took two months. Mastercard patented a fix in 2014 and shelved it, chasing the wrong half of the problem.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
What does living like the world's richest 10% cost the planet? Up to $5.7 trillion a year, the biggest share biodiversity loss, not carbon. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
A New Study Prices The Environmental Damage Of The Top 10%. For A Wealthy American It Could Be $63,000 A Year
A new study prices the environmental damage of the world's richest 10% at up to $5.7 trillion a year, and finds biodiversity loss, not carbon, is the biggest share.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
I ended up somewhere I didn't expect: journals should scrap AI disclosure statements. Once a human answers for every claim, how the words were written is screened off. New dispatch, plus a keynote, a Long's Peak climb, and a paper well off my usual beat: jdrakephd.substack.com/p/meetings-a...
jdrakephd.substack.com
Meetings and Mountains
Dispatch #10
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Reposted by John M. Drake
Big Biology | A Science Podcast @bigbiology.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Dan Simberloff is perhaps best known for his work that is foundational to the field of invasion biology. He recently wrote the book “Ecological Explosions: The History of Biological Invasions and Invasion Science”, which explores the history and evolution of the field. 📖
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
A new study finds city lights suppress dormancy more powerfully than urban warming. In late-fall enclosures near porch lights, 41% of mosquitoes skipped dormancy and fed. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
City Lights Are Lengthening The North American Mosquito Season
A new field study finds that city lights suppress mosquito dormancy more powerfully than urban warming, extending biting season and West Nile virus risk into late fall.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Banded mongooses scent-mark to keep rival groups apart. Our new paper in #EcologyAndEvolution finds those same marks create indirect pathogen contacts 16x more frequent than direct contact. Social defenses become transmission highways. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Networks of Indirect Contact Promote Spread of an Environmentally Transmitted Pathogen in a Highly Social Species
Using behavioral observations and network simulations, we evaluate direct and indirect transmission of the MTBC pathogen M. mungi in banded mongooses. Incorporating intergroup scent marking reveals t....
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
Can ecosystems malfunction? Only when we co-opt them for our purposes. The anthropocentric commitment is ineliminable. New essay in Aeon on the hidden philosophy behind "ecosystem function." aeon.co/essays/why-w...
aeon.co
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Some additional commentary from me on #Forbes www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
Scientists Are Counting The Diseases Climate Change Causes
A new report from the American Academy of Microbiology examines how attribution science is measuring the infectious disease burden caused by climate change.
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Reposted by John M. Drake
John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
New AAM-AGU report on climate change and infectious diseases, from attribution science to public health preparedness. I was part of the colloquium behind it. A good roadmap for where this field goes next. asm.org/reports/role-of-climate-change-on-emerging-and-reemerging
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
New AAM-AGU report on climate change and infectious diseases, from attribution science to public health preparedness. I was part of the colloquium behind it. A good roadmap for where this field goes next. asm.org/reports/role-of-climate-change-on-emerging-and-reemerging
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
The test-negative design has real statistical limitations. It also recovers the right answer when checked against randomized trials. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
Acting CDC Director Jay Bhattacharya Called A Vaccine Study Design 'Crap.' What The Test-Negative Design Is And How We Know Whether Vaccines Measured With It Are Effective
Jay Bhattacharya dismissed the test-negative design as 'crap.' The biostatistics literature tells a different story.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
COVID infected 17% of the Diamond Princess in a month. Hantavirus: 5% of the Hondius in five weeks. The biology explains why this outbreak won't scale. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
Why Hantavirus Will Not Be The Next Pandemic
An ecologist explains why the hantavirus cruise ship outbreak, while serious, will not become the next pandemic. The biology of Andes virus limits large-scale spread.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
I tackled this issue — traits vs exposure — from a more conceptual point of view in this essay, published last year in #PLOSBiology. Gippet and colleagues put numbers to the idea. journals.plos.org/plosbiology/...
journals.plos.org
Why are there so few pathogens? Ecology and evolution in pathogen emergence
Why are there so few pathogens, and what determines their emergence? This Perspective argues that ecological and evolutionary forces (host availability, geographic exposure and microbial innovation) w...
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
What if the biggest predictor of zoonotic disease isn't which species carries it, but how much we trade it? New Science paper quantifies pathogen sharing in traded species. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
"No Trade Is Safe." New Evidence Links Wildlife Trade To Human Disease
A new study in Science finds that the longer a mammal species is traded, the more pathogens it shares with humans. An ant ecologist's data reframe zoonotic risk.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Preorder on Amazon: www.amazon.com/Ecology-Evol...
amazon.com
The Ecology and Evolution of Marine Parasites and Disease (Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases)
Buy The Ecology and Evolution of Marine Parasites and Disease (Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases) on Amazon.com ✓ FREE SHIPPING on qualified orders
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Marine parasites are increasing but still vastly understudied. New book from Jeb Byers, @johnwares.bsky.social, and @blakeslee-lab.bsky.social covers coral disease to parasite evolution across 18 chapters. Out June 5 from Oxford UP in the EEID series.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
How does a rodent-borne virus end up on a cruise ship? Three dead, six suspected cases of hantavirus aboard the MV Hondius. The ship left from Andes virus territory. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
Three Dead From Hantavirus On An Antarctic Cruise Ship. How Did They Get It?
Three dead from hantavirus on Antarctic cruise ship MV Hondius. An ecologist explains the three scenarios for how passengers contracted this rare rodent-borne disease.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
What happens when publish-or-perish meets AI? A journal's editorial team measured it. Submissions up 42%, writing worse, and the editors had to double their staff to cope. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
AI Slop Is Flooding Academic Journals. A Top Journal Measured It
A top management journal measured AI’s impact on submissions and reviews. Submissions rose 42%, writing quality declined and AI reviews proved uninformative to editors.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
New #Flu #Biotech. Airway organoids from ten wildlife species, two flu strains. All produced infectious virus — in one primate it acquired mutations shifting toward avian receptors. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
Miniature Airways Grown In A Lab Reveal Which Animals Flu Can Infect
Lab-grown miniature airways from wildlife reveal which species influenza can infect and how the virus adapts to new hosts.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Rich Sutton's much-cited essay "The Bitter Lesson" is usually read as a verdict on human cleverness: scale wins, our theories of thinking lose. Read it again. The corollary is that minds are richer than our models of them. That's not bitter at all. jdrakephd.substack.com/p/the-bitter...
jdrakephd.substack.com
The Bitter Lesson, Reconsidered
I find myself in conversation almost daily about how AI—especially large language models and agentic systems—is changing our lives.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
The National Science Board has had staggered six-year terms since 1950, by design. On Friday all 24 members were fired by email. The next board meeting is May 5. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
Trump Fired The Entire National Science Board. Here's Why That Matters
Trump fired all 24 members of the National Science Board, the body that oversees NSF. The institutional design that built American science is at stake.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Add enough environmental noise to a mosquito-borne disease model and epidemics that R0 says should happen simply don't. But at intermediate noise, you get the biggest outbreaks. New paper in PLOS Comp Biol with Kyle Dahlin, Karin Ebey, and John Vinson. doi.org/10.1371/jour...
doi.org
Nonlinear effects of noise on outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases
Author summary Climate change is expected to cause drastic changes in the spread of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks, both in where they occur and in their size. A key aspect of climate change is an i...
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
How does a shrimp virus end up in human eyes? A new study in Nature Microbiology traces the path. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
A Virus From Farmed Seafood Is Causing A New Eye Disease In People
A shrimp virus called CMNV has jumped into humans, causing a new eye disease linked to handling and eating raw seafood. The virus is already global.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Complex epidemic models are hard to interpret. We used conditional SHAP + a neural network surrogate to identify what drives multi-strain dynamics and how those drivers interact. New paper in Scientific Reports. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Explaining complex dynamical systems using conditional SHAP analysis with application to multi-variant epidemic dynamics - Scientific Reports
Understanding and explaining the dynamics of complex systems is a critical yet challenging task. Such a challenge often arises from high dimensionality, nonlinearity, and randomness, which together ma...
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
An AI agent replicated a landmark economics paper live for the Federal Reserve for $11. Then the economist behind the demo asked whether the same tool was quietly de-skilling him. My conversation with him: www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
An Economist Lectures The Fed On AI And The Future Of Knowledge Work
Economist Scott Cunningham showed the Fed how AI agents can replicate studies for $11—and why the same tools could erode the expertise that makes research worth reading.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
New paper with Victor Felix and Pej Rohani in J. R. Soc. Interface. doi.org/10.1098/rsif...
doi.org
A single autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable outperforms ensembles of autoregressive models for forecasting influenza hospitalizations in the contiguous United States
Abstract. Infectious disease forecasting is important to public health decision-making, particularly for mitigating the burden of seasonal influenza. We pr
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
We tested 30 models for forecasting flu hospitalizations across 48 states. One auto-tuned model with a single covariate beat ensembles of 64. The key: forecast growth rates, not counts, and use national trends to predict state-level dynamics.
doi.org
A single autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable outperforms ensembles of autoregressive models for forecasting influenza hospitalizations in the contiguous United States
Abstract. Infectious disease forecasting is important to public health decision-making, particularly for mitigating the burden of seasonal influenza. We pr
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
An AI system ran a full scientific study end-to-end, and one of its papers beat the median human submission at a major ML workshop. The economics are the real story — a draft paper for a few dollars in compute, landing on institutions that were not built for it. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
An AI System Passed Peer Review. The Scientific Community Isn’t Ready
An AI system automated the full arc of scientific research and passed peer review. Its creators say it could fix science's worst habits — but the risks are just as real.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Remote islands protect plants from disease. But isolation also favors large-leaved species — and big leaves are easy targets. Two forces, working against each other. New piece in Forbes. www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
forbes.com
Why Plants On Remote Islands Are Healthier
Plants on remote islands get less disease — but isolation reshapes which species dominate, and those species are the most vulnerable to infection.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
It was a fun conversation! Thanks @carlbergstrom.com
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
(Potentially) unpopular opinion. Too long for BlueSky so please read on Substack. jdrakephd.substack.com/p/in-praise-...
jdrakephd.substack.com
In Praise of the AI-Drafted Email
I’m going to risk sounding contrarian: I like receiving AI-written emails.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Hi folks - I've mostly migrated to substack. Would love to see my friends here follow me over there, too. It's the main place I'll be posting about ecology, environment, health, epidemiology, academia, and related topics. jdrakephd.substack.com
jdrakephd.substack.com
Drake's Dispatches | John Drake | Substack
Occasional essays and reflections on science, health, environment, and the policies that shape them. Click to read Drake's Dispatches, by John Drake, a Substack publication.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Software: we released S4DM (R package) on CRAN implementing plug-and-play + density-ratio workflows: cran.r-project.org/web/packages...
cran.r-project.org
S4DM: Small Sample Size Species Distribution Modeling
Implements a set of distribution modeling methods that are suited to species with small sample sizes (e.g., poorly sampled species or rare species). While these methods can also be used on well-sample...
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
We advocate ensembles that span assumptions (tight vs broad): they can improve predictions and explicitly map disagreement/uncertainty when data are scarce.
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John M. Drake @jdrakephd.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Also: for small samples, training AUC / CV AUC is a weak proxy for independent presence–absence performance; specificity & accuracy carry better.
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