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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

A few observations about #JNIM's #Mali activity patterns in August - a month that saw multiple prisoner exchanges - Attacks dropped considerably cf July - Casualties remained high, driven by a handful of incidents - Attacks were more concentrated in central regions

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Wagner - and now Africa Corps - have always had a very transactional interest in Africa, especially the Sahel, I told BBC News. Great to be interviewed by @simijourno.bsky.social for this excellent piece reflecting on Russia's role countering the recent coup in Niger www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

Niger coup attempt: Is Russia proving better at protecting friends than fighting enemies in West Africa?

Russian forces were brought in to help defeat jihadists but they also defend the military leadership in Niger.

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

It is striking how much warmer and full of praise JNIM's language has become when referring to their Tuareg "partners" (FLA). The statement on 4 July attacks in #Mali speaks of the FLA's "heroism", "sacrifice" and "valour". In April they got a cursory mention as "partners" and "brothers"

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

Several pro-IS sources have been circulating "news" of a large defection of rival #JNIM fighters to the ranks of IS #Sahel amid alleged internal divisions in JNIM's northern #BurkinaFaso branch. It is speculative at this stage - but one suggested that as many as 150 JNIM fighters may have defected

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

A new video from pro-al-Qaeda group 'Ajnad Bayt al-Maqdis' has claimed attacks on US and Israeli military targets in Syria. Despite emerging as the #IranWar‌ began, the latest video stresses attacks are in support of Palestinians, possibly an attempt to distance itself from #Iran and its proxies

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

In actual fact, the strait's name has nothing to do with the 7th Century battle, but it is interesting how today's geopolitics can prompt creative reinterpretations of history. The name is much older, most likely deriving its name from the Zoroastrian God Ahura Mazda or Hormuzd

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

I've seen several Arabic social media posts recently claiming the Strait of #Hormuz should be renamed the "Strait of Khalid", after the 7th C. commander who defeated the #Persian commander Hormozd Jadhuyih at the Battle of the Chains in 633 (cont. below)

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

Always a pleasure to speak to John Simpson on BBC's Unspun World. This time, we discussed Islamist militancy in West #Africa’s infamous “coup belt” region and why Russian mercenaries may be exacerbating insecurity #Sahel #Mali www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hg1...

youtube.com

Islamist militancy grows in West Africa's Sahel

YouTube video by BBC Monitoring

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

A language analysis of JNIM's Ramadan series "Nafhat Ramadan" reveals a strong predominance of Fulani/Peul - playing to #JNIM's main ethnic support base. Interesting that Bambara appeared only once despite recent militant focus on #Mali, and French not once. #Sahel #Africa

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

In the last year, IS #Sahel attacks have been gradually creeping closer to #Niger's southern border with #Nigeria (red dots on map). So far, there have been no IS claims in NW Nigeria, but the notoriously porous border with Dosso makes this a distinct possibility

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

Well worth watching this documentary from #BBCAfricaEye which managed to get rare frontline access to Puntland's fight against #IslamicState www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmIs...

youtube.com

Shadow War: Islamic State Group in Africa - BBC Africa Eye Documentary

YouTube video by BBC News Africa

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

My latest feature for BBC News explores why high-profile abductions of foreign nationals in the #Sahel spiked last year, and tells the stories of some of the victims and their families Thanks Heni Nsaibia from MENASTREAM for sharing your analysis www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

Kidnapping of foreigners soars in Africa's lawless Sahel region

Growing insecurity in the Sahel made 2025 one of the worst years on record for the abduction of foreigners in Africa.

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

Iran-based Baloch Sunni militant group Ansar al-Furqan have called on #Iranians to rise up against #Iran's leaders, saying "if you see the mujahideen in your vicinity, cooperate fully", providing contact details for further guidance

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

A JNIM supporter video claims to show the aftermath of a "coordinated attack with the separatists" in Kidal, targeting a convoy of #Malian army and #Russian #AfricaCorps Evidence of coordination with Tuareg armed groups is rare, and JNIM does not admit such coordination

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

You can read some more key takeaways on my blog piece for @BBCMonitoring – link below – and the whole report by signing up for a free trial. Thanks for data collection and reporting contributions from Collins Nabiswa monitoring.bbc.co.uk/inside-bbcm/...

monitoring.bbc.co.uk

BBC Monitoring – Essential Media Insight

BBC Monitoring reports and analyses news from media around the world. Access to local sources and unrivalled understanding of the world's media mean our subscribers are...

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

ACLED data also shows that there were unusually high numbers of foreign kidnapping incidents in #Niger and #Mali last year

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

Despite representing a very small number of foreign kidnappings, international media focused on five high-profile cases in which the victims were US or European nationals - or where the reported ransom pay-out was considerable. The majority of these occurred in the #Sahel

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

Overall, the mining sector was worst impacted by kidnapping of foreigners (around 30%), followed by transport (13%), humanitarian/NGOs (8%), cement (7%), and energy (7%)

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

2025 saw a significant increase in the kidnapping of foreign nationals in Africa’s #Sahel region. Around 40% of high-profile cases across Africa were #Chinese, many working in #Mali's gold-rich regions. Some 15% were #Indian nationals mainly working in energy and cement

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

A photo circulating after last night's apparent attack on Niamey airport in #Niger shows a black and white flag featuring the Shahada - further indication of jihadist involvement. But still no claim from either #JNIM or #ISSahel

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 19/12/2025

As communities continue to feel the awful repercussions of Bondi, governments will be asking themselves what they can do to keep people safer... A wider interpretation of extremism may help flag dangerous individuals in future. My piece for @newstatesman1913.bsky.social tinyurl.com/332ec4fb

newstatesman.com

The Islamic State is taking advantage of a new kind of terrorist

They are liable to commit terrorist acts without any meaningful link to a terrorist ideology

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

Similar to the New Orleans attack in January, IS has obliquely taken credit for inspiring the #bondiattack in #Sydney - but not for being operationally involved. Fits an emerging pattern of IS claims since summer last year in which IS blurs the line of what constitutes an IS attack

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 16/12/2025

And ISEAP (Philippines/Indonesia) has not previously been known as a regional hub for operations abroad. A UNSC report from earlier this year estimated a 150-200 strong, highly factionalised, force

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 16/12/2025

I shared some thoughts for BBC News on the trip made by the #bondibeach attack gunmen to the Philippines, allegedly for "military style training". IS operational capacity in the #Philippines has been low-level following a peak of activity around 2017-2019

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 08/12/2025

Mali's Timbuktu region has been the focus of multiple pieces of #JNIM propaganda in recent weeks, where the group seems to be making extra efforts to win hearts and minds. This includes two statements condemning Africa Corps "executions" of civilians - a rarity since Wagner left in June

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 04/12/2025

IS #Syria has officially claimed yesterday's attack in Aleppo which reportedly killed two Syrian govt customs officers. This comes on the heels of a rare attack - the first since 2018 - in Idlib province, traditionally a stronghold of HTS, and also rare #Islamicstate attacks in Homs and Hama

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

I spoke to @bellingcat.com about #JNIM's communication strategy in #Mali and how the group is articulating its ambitions at a critical point in the long-running jihadist insurgency Great immersive investigative piece from Sebastian Vandermeersch, and insights from Héni Nsaibia tinyurl.com/ys3exbh5

tinyurl.com

Mali Under Siege: Tracking the Fuel Blockade Crippling Bamako - bellingcat

Attacks by a jihadist group on fuel convoys bound for Bamako, the capital of Mali, have destroyed more than 130 tankers since September, a Bellingcat investigation has found. The systematic attacks b...

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

#JNIM claims killing 139+ people in its latest infographic poster rounding up attacks from November. Claimed fatalities fell from last month (187) but remain significantly higher than September (96) when resources began being poured into the #Mali fuel blockade

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

X's decision to display the geolocalisation of accounts has exposed dozens of prominent #Sahel pro-junta and pro-Russia influencers/trolls as based in the West, according to this article by LSI Africa. Many of them appear to be operating out of #France www.lsi-africa.com/fr/actualite...

lsi-africa.com

Géolocalisation X : la France va activer l’arsenal juridique contre les propagandistes étrangers

La nouvelle géolocalisation de X a mis au jour une réalité embarrassante : nombre d’influenceurs pro-AES, se présentant comme des « patriotes africains », diffusent depuis la France ou d’autres pays o...

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

The latest #JNIM preaching photoset from #Mali shows unusually large crowds (seemingly around 100 in one photo), and almost a dozen individual locations Most previous examples of such propaganda typically focused on one or two locations and showed smaller gatherings

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

JNIM have remained silent so far about these clashes, possibly because the group is so focused on attacks in south-western Mali, amidst a major blockade of #Bamako

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

The latest bout of clashes have mostly been in north-eastern #BurkinaFaso (Oudalan and Yagha provinces), near the border with Niger, with over 100 casualties claimed since mid September

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

Sept-Nov have seen a return of heavy clashes between #JNIM and #IS Sahel, according to IS claims. Clashes on this scale have been unprecedented since late 2022, during territory disputes in eastern #Mali's Menaka region in the context of French troop withdrawal

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

The cancellation affects one of #Mali's most important annual religious gatherings that has been taking place since 1966.

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

The Catholic Bishops of Mali have cancelled a pilgrimage to the Marian shrine of Kita in the western Kayes Region (scheduled for 29-30 November), citing the fuel crisis caused by #JNIM's blockade, according to Malijet malijet.com/a_la_une_du_...

malijet.com

Crise de Carburant : Les Évêques du Mali annulent le pèlerinage national de Kita 2025

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

Local Malian daily newspaper Le Soir de Bamako reports on the public execution of prominent TikToker by suspected jihadists. Shocking news like this couldn't come at a worse time for #Bamako, where tensions are already high after more than two months of #JNIM's blockade in southern #Mali

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

UAE's overall imports of gold are down around 18%, meaning that the overall share of questionable/conflict-linked gold is even higher A few days later the 2024 UAE import data was mysteriously removed from the UN Comtrade platform... I am still waiting on UAE's MoFA for comment

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

- Burkina Faso: 162% - Uganda (hub for gold from DRC): 120% - Armenia (hub for Russian gold): 92% - Sudan: 70% - Egypt (transit point for Sudanese gold): 69% - Russia: 63% - Rwanda (hub for gold from DRC): 38% - Mali: 9.7%

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

On 31 October, UN Comtrade finally published 2024 gold import data from the UAE. The data showed undeniable increases in imports of gold linked to conflict, and known smuggling hubs of conflict (or "blood") gold. They are highlighted green, namely... (cont. below)

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

"It is the police who create chaos. They come with dozens of cans, and afterwards, we find them selling the fuel," according to one tax driver. Meanwhile, two days ago Malian authorities reportedly arrested at least 30 people accused of involvement in a petroleum theft network in Bamako

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

Further signs of tension in Bamako caused by #JNIM's fuel blockade. Local media in #Mali are reporting misconduct by police officers at gas stations in Bamako, accusing security forces of exacerbating the crisis through hoarding and resale bamada.net/crise-de-car...

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

Neither JNIM nor accounts which tend to amplify AQ propaganda have reported the attack. And some local media are saying the perpetrators are linked with Ansaru, not JNIM

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

Yes, there is some supposed evidence of JNIM's presence in Nigeria, bordering Benin. But previous attacks have been further north in Benin's Alibori region

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

There is good reason to be sceptical about JNIM's alleged link to the Kaiama attack in Nigeria's Kwara state - one that many have touted as "JNIM's first attack in Nigeria"

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

The moment that some forty fuel tankers reportedly arrived in Bamako on 29/30 Oct, after the govt struck a prisoner release deal with #JNIM. The group apparently immediately reimposed the blockade again after the convoy arrived, amidst a school shutdown in #Mali

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

Yesterday's major ambush on the fuel convoy accompanied by the Malian army near the Kayes/Koulikoro border, seen in clips circulated in local groups

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Jacob Boswall @jboswall.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Interesting how al-Zallaqa is only gradually beginning to acknowledgement these attacks on fuel tankers, which previously have largely been documented through videos and announcements circulated through local chats and groups

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