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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 23/09/2026

So what does this do for Mansur Yavaş’s poorly-concealed ambition to succeed Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as president? For now, very little: today simply sustains the middle-of-the-road path that the mayor of Ankara has been forging for himself for years. But he remains a contender.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 23/09/2026

Remarkably, no one appears to be especially angry about this resignation. Özgür Özel suggested he sanctioned the move (and presumably the failure to switch to the New Party). Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu said Yavaş should have stayed, but still spoke flatteringly of him.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 23/09/2026

His departure this morning is in part a show of force: eight Ankara district mayors, albeit in more rural areas, have left the CHP along with him. Many were picked by Mansur Yavaş himself. It’s notable given others have already switched to the AK Party, allegedly to avoid arrest.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 23/09/2026

He hasn’t joined Özgür Özel’s New Party – a decision already being portrayed in pro-government circles as a sign of further divisions in the opposition. The reality is more nuanced: the opposition is having to find ways to stick together without being card-carrying members.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 23/09/2026

Ankara’s mayor has made his move. He leaves the CHP – the party that embraced him more than 16 years ago – and vows to sit as an independent, saying his first responsibility is to the voters who elected him.

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Michael Sercan Daventry @michaeldaventry.com · 07/08/2026

This long analysis about the EU’s enlargement prospects by @henryjfoy.ft.com and Martin Dunai is fascinating – not least because it mentions the EU’s longest-standing candidate country, Turkey, precisely once. www.ft.com/content/f8fc...

ft.com

‘It’s now or never.’ Is the EU serious about letting in new members?

Candidate countries hope for progress after years of inaction, but some in Brussels are still uncertain about enlargement

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 15/06/2026

"President Erdoğan has no need to become president again, but Turkey does need President Erdoğan to become a candidate one more time." The biggest indication yet from major aide Mehmet Uçum that Erdoğan's team is preparing the ground for a fourth term www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz/bi...

aa.com.tr

Bir kez daha erken seçim tartışması üzerine

Genel olarak içinde bulunduğumuz dönemde dünyada ve bölgedeki tüm gelişmelere rağmen Türkiye, siyasal sistemin işleyişi açısından olağanüstü bir durum içinde değildir. | Anadolu Ajansı

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 22/05/2026

We haven’t seen much of Kılıçdaroğlu today, apart from appointing a press secretary. The Özgür Özel camp, meanwhile, has launched a legal challenge at the Supreme Electoral Council (YSK) which, they argue, certified the 2023 leadership vote and are the only ones who can annul it.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 22/05/2026

Critics also point out he has made little effort to engage with the CHP membership or voter base – and that his media interviews have largely been on pro-government channels – outlets which, ironically, shunned him when he actually was leader of the opposition.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 22/05/2026

His critics say Kılıçdaroğlu’s deeds, not his words, show that he is no elder statesman for the party. He once marched from Ankara to Istanbul to protest against Turkey’s politicised judiciary, they say, so why now support a court decision that happens to put him back in office?

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 22/05/2026

No one disputes Kılıçdaroğlu is a mild-mannered man. He reasons he’s acting in the party’s best interests by accepting a role he suggests is being thrust upon him – and that he’s best-placed to steer the CHP through this period of turbulence. Could the quiet man not have a point?

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 22/05/2026

That triggers the question being asked by many who have been left bewildered by Kılıçdaroğlu and his motives in recent years: is he really a “traitor” – or is he being astonishingly naive?

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 22/05/2026

It is the day after the night before and the anger at Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has been visceral: we’ve seen instances of his portrait being torn down in party offices, of crowds chanting “Traitor Kemal”. According to some reports today, he’s been left rather upset by it all.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 21/05/2026

Özel has previously admitted an entirely separate political party is being kept effectively in reserve – in case the CHP is shut down. But what to do if he is permanently shut out of the party, and is accused of splitting the vote on the Turkish centre-left?

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 21/05/2026

It's been suggested this might be a prime opportunity to call an early general election, at a time when the legal ructions surrounding CHP could pervent the party from standing candidates and its presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu remains behind bars.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 21/05/2026

Whether Özel can lawfully call an extraordinary congress, the mechanism for an impromptu leadership election, remains unclear. Other courts may rule against him and his team. The CHP could swim in legal limbo for months.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 21/05/2026

Ankara's mayor Mansur Yavaş says part of the response to the court should be another CHP leadership election – to get the party machinery to reconfirm Özel in office. That's something that's already been done three times since Kılıçdaroğlu lost in 2023.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 21/05/2026

This is also yet another chapter in the bewildering tale of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the Turkish politician who was compared to Mahatma Gandhi when he took office in 2010, but is these days regarded by many CHP members as a puppet of the Erdoğan regime. He denies the latter claim.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 21/05/2026

The financial markets appear to have made up their minds. Turkey's stock market triggered a circuit breaker after plummeting by 6%. Bloomberg says $6 billion has been spent in the last few hours to defend the lira.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 21/05/2026

That is true: the case has been brought by CHP people, figures close to Kılıçdaroğlu who claim the 2023 leadership election was rigged against him. But it is also true that no one has yet been convicted on those charges, and that is why Team Özel claims today's ruling is a fix.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 21/05/2026

The government's view is that this case demonstrates the strength of Turkish democracy. The justice minister appeared in front of TV cameras this evening to point out that the route to appeal is open. He argues the case was brought by CHP members and shaped by their statements.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 21/05/2026

Second, the realities. Özel has been dethroned but -- tonight, at least -- he's still running the show. The word is that Kılıçdaroğlu has told his indeterminate number of supporters to abstain from celebrations. His lawyer says he plans to ring Özel up for a chat.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 21/05/2026

First, the legalities. Today's court ruling is provisional, meaning the decision to remove Özel is NOT final. As with most cases of this kind, the decision needs to be confirmed by a higher court. But the reinstatement of Kılıçdaroğlu as a temporary measure is, well, unusual.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 21/05/2026

So, what happens now? The latest in a long string of court rulings against Turkey's main opposition party is an order to remove the party's leader, Özgür Özel. Is he still in office – and is the country heading for early elections?

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Michael Sercan Daventry @michaeldaventry.com · 15/02/2026

A pro-Kurdish demonstration in central London, complete with flags of Abdullah Öcalan, the YPG, the federated Iraqi region of Kurdistan – but not, as was so often the case in previous years, the PKK.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 10/02/2026

But it’s the justice role that will get the Kremlinologists speculating. Is Gürlek’s new job a reward for the cases he led in Istanbul, or an effort to put some distance between him and them?

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 10/02/2026

Also gone tonight is the interior minister Ali Yerlikaya. Those close to the government are making much of the fact he is the first hafız – someone who can recite the Koran from memory – in the role.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 10/02/2026

It’s a remarkable appointment because of Gürlek’s links not only to the İmamoğlu case, but to countless others involving high profile broadcasters, actors’ agents, sporting club directors… The Istanbul chief prosecutor has not shied away from the limelight over the past year.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 10/02/2026

In a pretty stunning move, President Erdoğan has tonight appointed Istanbul’s chief prosecutor Akın Gürlek – the man who led many of the judicial cases against the opposition’s jailed presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu – as his new justice minister.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 04/06/2025

Plus there’s the fact the pre-1980 economy was much less open than today’s, and there are many who’d argue the Cyprus embargoes were just as destructive as mismanagement of the economy by domestic politicians, etc etc – but you already know all this! :)

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 04/06/2025

Agree with all this. The original question was about inflation, which as you say isn’t enough to tip things. Turkey has had far worse inflation and for longer: my first ever salary was paid in billions of TL. A massive fiscal crisis is another ball game altogether – but again, we’re not there yet.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 04/06/2025

Don’t have the figures to hand so happy to be corrected but surely inflation was far, far worse in the 80s and 90s than it was before the 1980 coup – when the bigger issue was political deadlock plus violence and lawlessness on the streets.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 04/06/2025

The past 40 years of Turkish elections shows chronic inflation doesn’t necessarily kill a party’s election prospects, so long as people have jobs or the right kind of handouts, and so long as there isn’t an obvious alternative.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 03/05/2025

Sırrı Süreyya Önder died this afternoon of multiple organ failure, after spending nearly three weeks critically ill in hospital following emergency heart surgery. A huge loss for parliament, Turkey’s pro-Kurdish party – and the peace process.

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Michael Sercan Daventry @michaeldaventry.com · 23/04/2025

You don't really need subtitles to see how well presenter Meltem Bozbeyoğlu handles the moment a 6.2 magnitude earthquake in Istanbul struck live on CNN Türk, but here they are in any case.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 23/04/2025

Trying to sort one out. Substack is being tricky.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 23/04/2025

Today’s the Turkish parliament’s 105th anniversary. Some, like independence war veteran Rauf Orbay below, believe this – and not 29 October 1923 – is Turkey’s true birthday. It was since then, he argues, that the country operated as a republic. Either way, happy birthday 🇹🇷

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 15/04/2025

‪All this makes him perhaps the closest example that DEM can point to of an elder statesman – one who is now fighting for his life in hospital.‬

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 15/04/2025

‪In the Turkish parliamentary system each of the main parties nominate a deputy speaker and chairs sessions in rotation. Önder is the man who represents the pro-Kurdish DEM. ‬ ‪Despite his party affiliation, he’s actually Turkish, even though he hails from the southeast of Turkey. ‬

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 15/04/2025

Typo. Should have been “pro-Kurdish”. Thanks

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 15/04/2025

Sırrı Süreyya Önder, one of the most recognised pro-Kurdish politicians in Turkey and member of the delegation holding talks with PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, has been rushed to hospital tonight with a suspected tear to a heart valve. His party says his condition is serious.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 14/04/2025

Parliamentary arithmetic still matters. A reminder that Turkey's governing party does not have a majority, and its de facto coalition does not wield a three-fifths majority in the Grand National Assembly. You need the latter to change the constitution or call an early election.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 23/03/2025

The opposition says all this boils down to Erdoğan not wanting to face İmamoğlu in an election. It’s not yet clear how many voters, and crucially what type of voters, agree with that. The CHP’s challenge is to maintain momentum and channel public anger – and that won’t be easy.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 23/03/2025

Also, note posts like this by a senior pro-Kurdish MP implying Ankara mayor Mansur Yavaş, who has Turkish nationalist roots, is a fascist. The row is about his view of a recent Kurdish rally. It will be tough to keep an opposition alliance together.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 23/03/2025

It’s clear that a significant section of Turkish society is outraged at what’s going on. They aren’t all CHP supporters. What is not yet clear is how deep the anger extends. How many religious conservatives, say, or Turkish nationalists think the same? It is too early to say.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 23/03/2025

The justice minister says this is an independent judicial process and any suggestion of political influence is plainly wrong. The opposition, and countless observers documenting an increasingly politicised judiciary in Turkey, tell a different story.

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JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey.com · 23/03/2025

Next, there is the question of the mayoralty. Can it be taken away from İmamoğlu permanently? Yes: the notorious kayyım process – where a mayor is removed and replaced by the government – remains an option for the interior minister. He has chosen not to use it right now.

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