James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 27/03/2026COVID provides a useful test because it raised death rates disproportionately within groups already at elevated risk of suicide. Thus the suicide disruption during the pandemic is not unique to COVID itself: COVID raised mortality, while the removal mechanism I propose is what shapes suicide rates. 130
James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 27/03/2026New Publication Alert! 🚨 Why do suicide rates rise in the spring and decline in the fall? I argue that those at risk of suicide also face higher risk of dying from other causes, so fall/winter mortality from flu and heart attacks generate lower suicide rates. rdcu.be/fabXs 192
James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 03/03/2026Recognition of this process dates back at least to Shakespeare, where the suicides of Romeo and Juliet precipitated reconciliation between their feuding families. osf.io/preprints/os... 000
James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 03/02/2026I posted this to reddit, it received a lot of attention before being removed by mods (?) I guess the uncomfortable realities presented were too much for them. 131
James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 06/11/2025Maybe of interest, I've been looking at the other side of the same coin—that suicide rates get censored by increases in other-cause mortality. Suicide rates increase with declining death rates coming out of the flu season, with COVID providing a nice natural experiment: osf.io/preprints/ps... 100
James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 01/10/2025The COVID natural experiment suggests something very different. Suicide rates increase with declining death rates coming out of the flu season. When death rates are disrupted, suicide rates are also disrupted: osf.io/preprints/ps... 021
James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 07/07/2025To be fair, the type of content generated by LLMs also plays a role 😛 bsky.app/profile/jame... 010
James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 01/07/2025The model seems to be overtrained on erratic online discourse 🤔 100
James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 02/05/20254/7 I then test whether the pre-pandemic correlation between death rates and suicide rates can predict the 2020 suicide rates. Results are good: 100
James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 02/05/20253/7 In 2020, the seasonal pattern for death rates was disrupted due to inordinate deaths occurring at an atypical time of year. Suicide rates show an exact inverse break in their seasonality relative to death rates. Is this just a coincidence? 🤔 100
James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 02/05/20252/7 The analysis reveals a consistent inverse seasonal relationship between death rates and suicide rates. 100
James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 15/12/20243. I then applied this model to predict 2020 suicide rates based on 2020 death rates. The predictions explained 11.6% of the variation in actual 2020 suicide rates and follow the average trend closely. 100
James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 15/12/20242. Using Canadian suicide rates from 2010-2019, I found that suicide rates decrease by an average of 0.27 standard deviations for every 1 standard deviation increase in death rates. 100
James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 15/12/20241. Preprint update: presenting new data analysis supporting Stengel’s hypothesis that suicide rates decline when societal value of life decreases, such as during periods of higher mortality. osf.io/preprints/ps... 110
James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 01/12/2024To your point about declining quality of life, I wrote a brief commentary on Stengel's hypothesis that suicide rates decrease during times of societal suffering, like war or genocide. I argue this applies to the pandemic as well. You can read here: osf.io/preprints/ps... 000
James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 23/11/20244/ As the plots show, results may hinge on one or two key data points. To explore this limitation, I performed a jackknife replication—removing one observation at a time to assess the impact. 110
James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 23/11/20242/ I tested the hypothesis: Ha: Reproduction is related to regional suicide rates for individuals with mental health conditions. Two versions of the analysis were conducted for validation: Using 4-year suicide rates Using 2-year suicide rates 100
James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 23/11/20241/ New preprint: "Do regional suicide rates predict reproductive fitness in individuals with mental health conditions?" A theory-driven hypothesis explored with limited data. Analysis will continue as more data become available from statistical agencies. osf.io/preprints/os... 200
James Wiley @jamescwiley.bsky.social · 20/11/2024Stigma against mental illness encourages suicide. Stigma against suicide discourages suicide. How do we reconcile these findings? Here's my take: osf.io/preprints/ps... 100