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Jakob Terp-Hansen

@jakobterp.bsky.social
358 followers 238 following 759 posts

USA-kommentator. Vært på Projekt Trump på Altinget. Redaktør, USAPol.dk. Find Projekt Trump: podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/proje…

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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
NYT/Sienas imødesete nye målinger tegner en vej til Senatet for Demokraterne med endog klare føringer i Texas og Alaska. Hvis de tager de to, Ohio og så også North Carolina, kan de principielt tåle at tabe Maine og behøver ikke eksempelvis Iowa.
nytimes.com
Senate Races in Republican States Tilt Toward Democrats, Polls Find
Democrats are performing strongly in five reliably Republican states where they are trying to flip Senate seats to win control of the chamber, new New York Times/Siena polls found.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Det store billede af midtvejsvalget med en måneds tid igen: Hvis det bliver en demokratisk bølge, vil det umiddelbart være ret let at forklare hvorfor.
usapol.dk
Midtvejsvalget ligner en demokratisk triumf – USAPol.dk
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
“Mr. Paxton responds: “So to be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.”
nytimes.com
Ken Paxton, G.O.P. Nominee in Texas, Privately Said Trump’s Convention Hurt Him
Ken Paxton, one of the party’s top Senate candidates and a Trump loyalist, said that “everybody’s numbers dropped” after the event, according to audio obtained by The Times.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Endnu en virkelig, virkelig god Marist-måling for Demokraterne. Måske for god til at være sand?
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Reposted by Jakob Terp-Hansen
Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
UNH just released two Senate polls of major races: Maine: —Troy Jackson leads Collins 51/47. (This is the 3rd ME poll today, after the NYT's Collins +3 and YouGov's Jackson +5.) New Hampshire: —Pappas leads Sununu 50/42. (This is the 2nd NH poll today, after the NY had Pappas up 5.)
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Reposted by Jakob Terp-Hansen
Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
YouGov has a Maine poll as well today, with Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48% to 43%. It also has Pingree (Dem) leading 48/39 in governor race. (I wish the NYT had released numbers for the governor race to accompany its Collins +3 Senate numbers, for comparison.) www.uml.edu/news/press-r...
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Et kig på Texas’ 15. distrikt og Texas‘ 34. distrikt i serien om svingdistrikter på USAPol:
usapol.dk
Svingdistrikterne til Repræsentanternes Hus: Her er to markante valg i Texas – USAPol.dk
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Reposted by Jakob Terp-Hansen
Lindsey Cormack @dcinbox.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Official Congressional E-newsletters mentioning "Trump" over time, by party in the 119th Congress:
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Susan Collins (R) foran i Maine i ny NYT/Siena. Kan have betydelige implikationer for, om Demokraterne tager Senatet:
nytimes.com
Collins Leads in Maine in Our New Poll. Is That an Outlier or an Omen?
There’s nothing more uncomfortable for a pollster than a result that stands out from the pack, but it doesn’t mean it should be dismissed.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Ny Projekt Trump lige op til mødet mellem Trump og Xi Jinping: Jeg taler med Jonas Parello-Plesner om kunstig intelligens, Trumps syn på forholdet til Kina og hans tilgang til Taiwan. Man kan fx høre med her:
podcasts.apple.com
Jonas Parello-Plesner: Trumps Kina-politik handler mere om handel end om sikkerhed
Podcastepisode · Projekt Trump · 23. september · 38 min.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
”Jeg er mere håbefuld end ikke om, at der kan opnås en aftale”, sagde Mike Sfraga, der fungerede som Arktis-ambassadør i Biden-administrationen, da jeg mødte ham i München i februar. Det håb viste sig at være berettiget.
usapol.dk
München 2026: Grønlandskrisen kan blusse op igen – USAPol.dk
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Mulige scenarier for det kommende valg: ICE-agenter på valgsteder, konfiskering af stemmesedler og angreb på valgets legitimitet. Jeg tror ikke, Trump stjæler midtvejsvalget. Men det fortæller meget om USA’s situation, at vi overhovedet har den snak.
usapol.dk
Stjæler Trump midtvejsvalget? – USAPol.dk
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
According to new reporting from DR, the United States wants to expand its presence in Greenland with two new military bases.
dr.dk
DR erfarer: USA vil etablere to nye amerikanske baser i Grønland
Narsarsuaq i Sydgrønland kan være et af de steder, som måske skal give plads til en amerikansk base.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Demokraterne +5 i ny NBC-måling.
nbcnews.com
Poll: Most voters say Trump has hurt the economy as competitive midterm election looms
Trump’s approval and economic ratings point to a gloomy environment for the GOP, but the race for Congress is closer than in his first midterm, with the Democratic Party still unpopular.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
“Democrats say they began to see a change during what was supposed to be Republicans’ hallmark 2026 event: the party’s unorthodox midterm convention. The gathering was billed as a way for the GOP to showcase its front-line candidates, but instead it featured Trump defending his record (..)”
washingtonpost.com
Why Democrats are starting to feel bullish about a midterm wave
Democrats say the Iran war, high prices and President Donald Trump's sinking popularity give them a real chance of congressional majorities.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Et ganske kort kig på NY-17 i serien om svingdistrikter:
usapol.dk
Svingdistrikterne til Repræsentanternes Hus: Her er det mest markante valg i New York – USAPol.dk
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Reposted by Jakob Terp-Hansen
Kiley Bense @kiley.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
@dangearino.bsky.social and I appeared on this Danish podcast to talk about energy and climate policy under the second Trump administration. The podcast is called “Project Trump.”
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Reposted by Jakob Terp-Hansen
David S. Bernstein @dbernstein.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Plenty of interesting stuff in this Cook Political poll of battleground congressional districts www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/sur...
cookpolitical.com
New Battleground District Poll Shows Democrats Up, Voters Eager for Sweeping Change
A new Battleground District Project poll of the most competitive House districts in the country finds Democrats in a strong position to flip control of the chamber this fall. It also finds an electora...
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Abdul El-Sayed (D) +3 i ny måling fra Washington Post/Schar School.
washingtonpost.com
Poll finds close Michigan Senate race. Here’s how El-Sayed lags his party.
A Post-Schar School finds 53 percent of Michigan’s likely voters say they want Democrats to control the Senate, but 48 percent support Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in the Senate race.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Demokraterne er for første gang i sæsonen kravlet nominelt over 50 % i RCP’s gennemsnit, og deres margin på 8,6 procentpoint er også den største hidtil.
realclearpolling.com
2026 Generic Congressional Vote | RealClearPolling
2026 Generic Congressional Vote | RealClearPolling
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Nate Cohn: “Today’s New York Times/Siena poll finds that the conditions for a so-called wave in November’s midterm elections might be coming into place. The only question is whether — and where — Democrats will be able to ride it.”
nytimes.com
A ‘Blue Wave’ May Be Building, but How High?
A Times/Siena national poll suggests Republicans are reeling. Can they come back by depicting Democrats as too far to the left?
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Republikanernes konvent skabte opmærksomhed, men ændrer næppe stillingen videre i republikansk retning:
usapol.dk
Konventet redder ikke Republikanerne – USAPol.dk
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Havde fornøjelsen af at gæste Akkurat med Clement på P1 tidligere i dag sammen med en række kloge mennesker. Jeg talte mest om USA og Trumps forsøg på at sætte sig selv i centrum af midtvejsvalget. Man kan høre hele udsendelsen her:
dr.dk
Akkurat med Clement | Søndag 13. september 2026 | Lyt som podcast | DR LYD
Lyt som podcast her på DR LYD. Hvad er ugens vigtigste nyheder - og hvorfor? En række aktuelle gæster diskuterer nyhedsbilledet i ind- og udland med Clement Kjersgaard.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
“It currently puts the Democrats at 228 seats (..). The model estimate ranges into the high 230s if more breaks their way in the coming weeks, but at the lower bounds, it drops to 215, which means Republicans do have a bid to hold on to their current, narrow House majority from here.“
cbsnews.com
CBS News Battleground Tracker poll finds Trump motivating both sides, Democrats have edge in seats in fight for House
Price concerns boost Democrats, and MAGA Republicans are motivated. Both parties are seen negatively, according to CBS News' latest polling.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Seneste del af serien om svingdistrikter tager forbi Ohio og deres to svingdistriker, som er “toss ups” i medierne Cook Political Report og Sabato Crystal Balls optik, men af ganske forskellige årsager:
usapol.dk
Svingdistrikterne til Repræsentanternes Hus: Her er to markante valg i Ohio – USAPol.dk
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Stor sejr for Demokraterne i Missouri. Betyder formentlig (stadig) to frem for et sæde til partiet i delstaten.
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
A new YouGov poll has Talarico leading Paxton 48% to 43%. It's a red state, Rs could come home, of course. Worth noting only a few polls in 2018 ever had Beto leading Cruz, and only by 1-2%. YouGov in fall of '18 had Cruz up 6%. www.univision.com/noticias/pol... The Gov race is tied in same poll.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Nye CNN/SSRS-målinger: Michigan: El-Sayed (D): 47 % Rogers (R): 44 % Maine: Jackson (D): 48 % Collins (R): 45 %
edition.cnn.com
Maine and Michigan Senate races are neck and neck, CNN polls find | CNN Politics
The critical Senate contests in both Maine and Michigan feature tight races with no clear leader, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS. But voters in the two states see their choices through t...
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Ny Projekt Trump: Jeg taler med de to amerikanske klimajournalister @kiley.bsky.social og @dangearino.bsky.social fra Inside Climate News. Vi gennemgår Trumps promovering af fossil energi, angreb på eksempelvis vindenergi og håbet for en grøn omstilling alligevel. Lyt fx med her:
podcasts.apple.com
Kiley Bense og Dan Gearino: Trumps klimapolitik vil mærkes mange år frem
Podcastepisode · Projekt Trump · 9. september · 44 min.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Del 3 af serien om svingdistriker: Colorados 8. distrikt
usapol.dk
Svingdistrikterne til Repræsentanternes Hus: Her er det mest markante valg i Colorado – USAPol.dk
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
“Let’s start with the most likely scenario: that this is a “really bad” election for Republicans, losing between 26 and 35 seats in the House, and either four or five seats in the Senate.”
charliecookpolitics.com
When a nightmare scenario becomes the most likely scenario
Things are now officially bad for Republicans. It's just a matter of degree.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Nogle interessante ”bedste gæt“ på senatsvalgene fra Crystal Ball:
centerforpolitics.org
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Kan Demokraterne vinde senatsvalget i Texas? Dagens nyhedsbrev om, hvorfor deres muligheder synes at være de bedste siden 1988:
usapol.dk
Kan Demokraterne endelig vinde Texas? – USAPol.dk
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Del 2 i serien på USAPol om svingdistrikter op til midtvejsvalget. I dag om Iowas 1. distrikt og 3. distrikt:
usapol.dk
Svingdistrikterne til Repræsentanternes Hus: Her er to markante valg i Iowa – USAPol.dk
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
ICE fylder lige nu måske ikke lige så meget i nyhedsbilledet som tidligere, men den nuværende arrestationsindsats synes på sit mest intense hidtil: “(..) targeting more people with civil immigration violations but no criminal charges has helped ICE achieve record numbers of overall arrests.”
washingtonpost.com
ICE is arresting soaring numbers of immigrants with no criminal record
Federal immigration officers are shifting their targets and tactics to increase arrests. More than half of those detained last month did not have a criminal record.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Ny serie på USAPol: Jeg forsøger at gennemgå svingdistrikterne til Repræsentanternes Hus. Ikke sikkert, det bliver udtømmende, men den skal nok nå forbi en del. I første del handler det om Arizona og distrikterne AZ-01 og AZ-06: usapol.dk/ny-serie-om-...
usapol.dk
Ny serie om svingdistrikterne: Her er to markante valg i Arizona – USAPol.dk
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
“The purpose of CIA Director John Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow this week was to warn Russia not to attack NATO member states, according to multiple people familiar with the matter, amid U.S. intelligence assessments that Russia could try to test NATO.”
cbsnews.com
CIA Director John Ratcliffe warned Russia not to attack NATO during secretive trip
The purpose of the CIA chief's visit to Moscow this week was to warn Russia not to attack NATO member states, people familiar with the matter said, amid U.S. assessments that Russia could try to test ...
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Ikke ligefrem en god New Hampshire-måling for Demokraterne (omend man i dette klima ikke umiddelbart ville tænke, de ville få problemer der):
scholars.unh.edu
Pappas Support Slides, CD1 Primaries Down to the Wire 8/26/2026
First District Congressman Chris Pappas remains ahead in the race for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, but Karishma Manzur continues to close the gap, fueled by strong support from socialist...
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Reposted by Jakob Terp-Hansen
David S. Bernstein @dbernstein.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Center for Politics’ Crystal Ball accepts the Lone Star hype, moves TX-Sen to Toss-Up (from Lean-R) and Tex-Gov to Likely R (from Safe-R). Also TX-15 (Pulido) from Lean R to Toss-Up.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Iowa fortsætter med at se lidt vanskelig ud for Demokraterne på senatsplan, men Rob Sand (D) fører til gengæld også i guvernørvalget i denne måling.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Ny Projekt Trump: Jeg taler med historiker Sarah von Essen om Trump som kulturfænomen, reaktionen på woke og det store vibeskiftes skæbne. Lyt med her:
podcasts.apple.com
Sarah von Essen: Trump er ikke bare politiker. Han er et kulturfænomen
Podcastepisode · Projekt Trump · 26. august · 38 min.
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Reposted by Jakob Terp-Hansen
The New York Times @nytimes.com · 26/08/2026
Breaking News: Senator Darline Graham, backed by President Trump, won a GOP runoff in South Carolina to replace her brother on the ballot.
nyti.ms
Darline Graham, Backed By Trump, Wins Primary for Senate in South Carolina
Ms. Graham, who is temporarily filling the seat long held by her late brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, prevailed in a runoff and will be heavily favored in November.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Demokraternes base er blevet markant mere Israel-kritisk - hvilket den amerikanske befolkning i øvrigt også er. Det har jeg skrevet lidt om.
usapol.dk
Det demokratiske Israel-opgør – USAPol.dk
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Reposted by Jakob Terp-Hansen
Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
AP has called Tuesday's special election in a Pennsylvania state House district for Democrat Brandon Dukes. This is a FLIP for Dems. Their 6th so far in 2026 (and in the reddest district so far, this one was +18% Trump), and their 31st since January 2025. The GOP has flipped 0 seat in that period.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Et bedre resultat for El-Sayed i ny Susquehanna-måling: Foran med 7 procentpoint.
static01.nyt.com
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
“In the memo, obtained by Axios, the National Republican Senatorial Committee says Democrats have made data centers a "centerpiece" of their campaign to defeat Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) — and that it's working.”
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Reposted by Jakob Terp-Hansen
John Gramlich @johngramlich.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
% of US adults under 30 who say they're more concerned than excited about the use of AI in daily life 31% in 2021 55% in 2026 www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
Line chart showing that a growing percentage of adults under 30 in the United States are more concerned than excited about the use of artificial intelligence in daily life. The chart is based on Pew Research Center surveys of U.S. adults.
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Min analyse af Michigans senatsvalg med fokus på Demokraternes risici og deres grunde til optimisme:
usapol.dk
Risikerer Demokraterne Senatet i Michigan? – USAPol.dk
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Jeg skriver mit nyhedsbrev på USAPol ugentligt op til midtvejsvalget med særligt fokus herpå. Det er hver tirsdag, og næste udgave kommer i morgen. Man kan tilmelde sig gratis her, hvis man vil have det i sin indbakke:
usapol.dk
Nyhedsbrev – USAPol.dk
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Jakob Terp-Hansen @jakobterp.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Et par nye senatsmålinger: FOX: Troy Jackson (D) +2 i Maine Emerson: Ken Paxton (R) +1 i Texas emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-p...
foxnews.com
Fox News Poll: New matchup, same result — Maine Senate race stays locked
Susan Collins trails Democrat Troy Jackson by 2 points in a new Maine Senate race poll, with voters more concerned about her ties to Donald Trump than his DSA alignment.
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