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Jacob Mays

@jacobmays.bsky.social
3.1K followers 326 following 55 posts

Assistant Professor, Cornell Civil and Environmental Engineering, working on energy systems and decision making under uncertainty. Tweeting in a personal capacity.

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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
New paper on non-convexity, uncertainty, and uplift in wholesale electricity markets: in our NYISO simulations, operational policy mattered more than the pricing rule, and uncertainty + look-ahead price inconsistency drove most make-whole payments. doi.org/10.1109/TEMP...
doi.org
Price Consistency and Uplift in Wholesale Electricity Markets
The non-convex technical constraints governing power production have led wholesale market operators to implement alternative pricing schemes intending to ensure that market participant incentives are ...
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
New paper: as power systems add more wind, solar, and storage, prices depend more on uncertainty and storage opportunity costs. We show deterministic production cost models can misvalue flexibility and understate real-time price dynamics. doi.org/10.1088/2753...
doi.org
Price formation and flexibility valuation in production cost modeling
Price formation and flexibility valuation in production cost modeling, Smith, Kaleb, Santarém de Araújo, Hugo, Mays, Jacob
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
Our article "Operational Uncertainty and the Missing Money Problem" is now in Energy Economics (authors.elsevier.com/c/1lxeFW3fd1v69). The paper investigates capacity markets and operations, finding that current configurations in the US slightly undercompensate baseload plants relative to peakers.
authors.elsevier.com
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
Did not see that coming!
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Will Gorman @wfgorman.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
💡 New Transmission Paper alert 💡 “Electric transmission value and its drivers in United States power markets” just went live in Nature Communications! Kudos especially to Julie Mulvaney Kemp for getting this work to the finish line. doi.org/10.1038/s414...
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
That should say "Revisiting" instead of "Rethinking"
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Our paper "Rethinking capacity market fundamentals," about several issues in accreditation and non-performance penalties in capacity markets, is now published in Energy Economics and is open access for the next 50 days at this link: authors.elsevier.com/c/1ldcmW3fd1...
authors.elsevier.com
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
Can you expand on this?
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
If years left pre-tenure are greater than years of eligibility remaining, seems better to wait?
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
Due to the lower wholesale prices, seems like it would slightly increase the cost of other procurement. So the effect on the mix depends if you think the additional cost would change the quantity procured in those auctions.
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 28/05/2025
I think the 6 GW is probably irrelevant in this case--need to know what was available specifically in zone 6 on this map. I agree that the system should be planned in a way that enables operation without both nuclear plants, but I think we'll need to wait for the MISO report to learn more.
Map of MISO reserve zones
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 28/05/2025
Still accurate to say they “played a role,” since their absence almost certainly contributed to reserve shortage in that zone.
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
Do you have data on LCOE for balcony solar? Seems like it might be competitive.
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
The basic idea is summarized in the abstract here:
This study investigates how algorithmic choices in power system operations affect the total compensation available to different technologies participating in wholesale electricity markets. We focus on systems that utilize capacity payments. The need for capacity payments arises due to the "missing money" problem, i.e., that prices in short-term markets for energy and ancillary services are suppressed below the level required to support resource adequacy. Capacity payments to different technologies are calibrated under the assumption that price suppression occurs only in instances of scarcity, such that market operators can restore theoretically efficient remuneration by tying capacity payments to estimates of production during scarcity events. However, the complexity of power system operations creates challenges with short-term price formation that can lead to price suppression in non-scarcity hours. Compensating for this form of price suppression through capacity payments results in inefficient remuneration overall. In simulations using data from the New York Independent System Operator, we show that current configurations can result in elevated payments to peaking power plants relative to technologies whose production is spread over more hours of the year (e.g., nuclear, wind, and hydropower). The results reinforce the case for price formation reforms that shift the composition of overall revenue in wholesale electricity markets away from capacity toward energy and ancillary services.
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
New working paper, "Operational Uncertainty and the Missing Money." Here we argue that competitive electricity markets probably overcompensate peaking resources relative to those whose production is spread over more hours of the year (e.g., nuclear and hydro) papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Operational Uncertainty and the Missing Money Problem
This study investigates how algorithmic choices in power system operations affect the total compensation available to different technologies participating in wh
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 23/01/2025
I think it makes sense for the dual to be zero if non-binding or the penalty if binding. If that doesn’t accurately reflect the nature of the penalty, could model piecewise constant or piecewise linear slacks to get a smoother price outcome.
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
Yep, the tax is embedded in the offers of emitting suppliers.
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
What are they assuming the differences would be between "Public SMR" and "Private SMR"?
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
I'm about to start a project on reserve deliverability, reading recommendations are welcome.
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
We are recruiting for an undergraduate summer research opportunity in electricity market modeling, through Cornell's Office of Inclusive Excellence (sites.coecis.cornell.edu/lsampreu/). If you or someone you know wants to spend the summer in Ithaca and get into this area, check it out!
sites.coecis.cornell.edu
Cornell LSAMP Summer REU
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Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
I'm starting off 2025, a year when I'll write a lot about the role of markets and innovation in enabling our future power systems, by writing a series about RTOs as wholesale market platforms. Part I: economic history. 📉📈 and 🔌💡 knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...
knowledgeproblem.substack.com
Regional Transmission Organizations as Market Platforms I
What's the origin story of wholesale power markets?
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
Unfortunately we're having some trouble there as well: www.utilitydive.com/news/nyserda...
utilitydive.com
NYSERDA, Clean Path NY developers terminate contracts underpinning 175-mile transmission line
Clean Path NY developer Forward Power says it “remain[s] committed to New York’s energy transition” despite the loss of the project’s renewable energy credit purchase and sale agreement.
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
Framing it slightly differently, what’s the cost multiplier for a nuke (or anything, really) sited in downstate New York as opposed to, e.g., Georgia?
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 31/12/2024
But there are related modeling challenges that are not easy to address, e.g., fuel inventory for dual-fuel units.
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 31/12/2024
I don't think anyone explicitly separates fuel delivery issues from other causes of generator unavailability. With decent methodology (e.g. PJM after recent reforms) it gets incorporated to the extent it shows up in historical data.
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 23/12/2024
Agreed that it's hard to argue with in principle, but I am not familiar enough with the details of implementation to say how effective they have been in practice.
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 23/12/2024
Right--@electronecon.bsky.social is referring to U.S. utilities with fuel adjustment clauses that shield the utility from fuel price volatility, necessitating regulatory intervention if you want to try to restore better incentives for hedging.
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 22/12/2024
🔌💡 Our new study led by @fnbillimoria.bsky.social, "Hedging and tail risk in electricity markets," is now out in Energy Economics. 50-day access link: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Hedging and tail risk in electricity markets
One of the persistent concerns in scarcity-based electricity market designs is that markets for long-term contracts are highly illiquid or ‘missing’. …
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Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 20/12/2024
Nationally, winter grid operations vary from summer While summer risk tends to be concentrated in the evening hours, winter risk is bimodal, split between evening and morning across a wider range of hours. #energysky 🔌💡
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
Would be curious to discuss this more. Not clear to me if storage optimization issues should make us more confident about the need for energy-only markets or less confident about their viability.
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Recent progress on the first! ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/doc...
ieeexplore.ieee.org
Does Choice of Power Flow Representation Matter in Transmission Expansion Optimization? A Quantitative Comparison for a Large-Scale Test System
Power transmission network reinforcements must be carefully evaluated to ensure economic, secure, and reliable delivery of electricity. Transmission expansion planning (TEP) models, which seek to opti...
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Thanks, much appreciated!
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Even the best ISO/TSO models are simple compared to the real complexity of the problem, I think. Here's how we put it in a recent paper.
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
I guess it depends on what you mean by Big Energy Modeling?
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
Surely there’s a sociologist or systems engineer or someone who has written a more general account of how stuff like this happens, right?
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
The trio I associate with the term GETs is flow control, dlr, and topology optimization; not storage or demand response.
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Schweppe et al. (but not the book): www.osti.gov/servlets/pur...
osti.gov
Homeostatic control: the utility/customer marketplace for electric power (Technical Report) | OSTI.GOV
The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Scientific and Technical Information
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Published 43 years ago:
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 01/12/2024
Congratulations!
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
Congrats!
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
New in Energy Economics, our paper on the challenge of allocating the cost of transmission in a manner "roughly commensurate with benefits" when nobody can agree what the benefits are. 50-day share link: authors.elsevier.com/c/1kB0SW3fc~...
authors.elsevier.com
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Right, PPA specifics are harder to come by.
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
At the wholesale level, no. You can compute a time-weighted average price ("firm") against a production-weighted price ("variable") and typically the latter will be lower for renewables. These should flow into the PPA prices consumers are willing to pay.
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Thread summarizing our new paper on transmission cost allocation #EnergySky
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Reposted by Jacob Mays
Josh Macey @joshuamacey.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
I am happy that my paper on transmission line cost allocation with @jacobmays.bsky.social is now out in the energy law journal. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers..... The paper is a deep dive on the law and economics of transmission lines. Full disclosure: I am a transmission line enthusiast.
papers.ssrn.com
THE LAW AND ECONOMICS OF TRANSMISSION PLANNING AND COST ALLOCATION
This Article considers how to allocate the costs of transmission when states, utilities, or other classes of customers adopt different clean energy policies. It
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 10/10/2024
Alas, it doesn’t have filing rights.
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Reposted by Jacob Mays
Ariel Ortiz-Bobea @arielob.bsky.social · 04/10/2024
Cornell is hiring an environmental/energy/resource economist (open-rank). Join our vibrant academic community working on the major sustainability challenges facing the world today... & have the option to make this part of your daily commute :) Plz share! academicjobsonline.org/ajo/jobs/28657
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 30/09/2024
Since @boleteful.bsky.social responded along these lines, I'll also add a link to another paper in the same vein, but motivated by Winter Storm Uri: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Private risk and social resilience in liberalized electricity markets
Energy-only electricity markets, such as the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), rely on the decentralized investment decisions of market p…
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Jacob Mays @jacobmays.bsky.social · 30/09/2024
A couple references: first, we model high-renewable futures for ERCOT here and try to formalize this problem statement here: ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/doc...; second, we model a couple proposed remedies and discuss implications in www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Beyond capacity: Contractual form in electricity reliability obligations
Liberalized electricity markets often include resource adequacy mechanisms that require consumers to contract with generation resources well in advanc…
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