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Irving Jarnathan

@irvingwanders.bsky.social
213 followers 492 following 382 posts
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
or give longer sentences, then it seem's possible it might not even save money. Not the main reason not to do it but I wonder if when an impact assessment does come out it will look robust enough to withstand a judicial review. Hopefully its dropped before it gets that far
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
If average cost of a prisoner is circa £60k a year, and saving from moving a trial from jury to magistrate is maybe £3-10k ish? (I'm not sure of exact figures couldn't see an impact assessment published yet by the looks), but if magistrates convict at a significantly higher rate than jurys...
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
thanks for looking into it, yes I guess it was the overall impression of people's full economic long term contribution being negative I feel worried about becoming accepted as a commonly held fact. More context would have helped with that I agree.
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
@jdportes.bsky.social curious if you think this BBC more or less segment on the fiscal impact of migrants long term holds up, I'm sceptical (an economist but not a migration specialist) but it seems thin evidence, particularly relying on that one paper (I think IZA one mentioned in thread below. )
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I think the netherlands has a much more generous welfare system than the UK too which does change things materially. Overall I'm just very sceptical the claim of long term fiscal impact holds up and risks bedding in this false narrative if its not presented carefully with full economic contribution.
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
There's also the fact this doesn't account for migration creating a younger age profile population, and the net positive impact this has on the fiscal position of the state, i.e. second generation effects.
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Its a bit like saying people who make a contribution to their pension are a net cost but ignoring all the investment their pension generated and then pays them. Its not clear either to me if the figures are inflation adjusted (should be real not nominal for this analysis)
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I don't think it considers that a migrants contribution in present day, isn't a flat accounting contribution, if they add say £10k in year 1, that frees up government to invest more in the economy which should create extra wealth long term, I don't think paper captures that....
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
There's a different policy prescription if that is the case than stop migration, its, empower migrants to get a share of revenue in their wages which more reflects their economic value. And then if we actually look at the specific paper docs.iza.org/dp17569.pdf
docs.iza.org
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
if migrants have a fiscal cost to the gov they could still create more private wealth in the economy. & to the extent they don't earn much, this might be a case of poor bargaining power, so much of their output is captured by firms, & that firm's tax won't show up then as their fiscal contribution.
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
For this question assuming migrants on average arrive as adults we ignore the costs from childhood for a migrant who comes here as an adult and then still suggest they are a net economic cost? OK more narrowly a fiscal cost, which I think is the first point the piece should highlight,
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
So just intuitively, if you take the average contribution of a human to an economy it must on average be positive or people never have built anything, we'd be actively destroying global value, and that's already accounting for an economically inactive childhood and retirement.
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I think this is the paper it refers to docs.iza.org/dp17569.pdf Perhaps I'm wrong but there seems a large number of holes in the analysis.
docs.iza.org
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Just listening to BBC more or less and their piece from friday 2nd october on whether migrants have a net fiscal cost over their life time and it just doesn't pass the sniff test to me. Interested what other economists make of it
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Beth Stratford @bethstratford.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Well, I for one am an economist who supports rent controls! Here’s why 🧵: Markets only work well if: -buyers & sellers have roughly equal power -producers respond to price signals & expand supply in response to scarcity -buyers can walk away if prices get too high
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
A lot here that chimes with what's happening in the UK as well.
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
both self sabotaged by their toxic masculinity and addiction to nos
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
top 5 viziers (from least to most evil): Ben Affleck (Matt Damon's) Iago - the original vizier ( to be clear I mean the parrot from Aladdin) Mr Smee Druscilla from Buffy Commander Riker
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I would love to see a democratic country have a proper go at creating a publicly funded social media, with public (not government) governance.
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Feels like we need an organised campaign to change BBC governance
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
he who cackles last, mackles mostest
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
No way it can capture the unique aspect of UK traitors where some of the people feel conflicted and emotional about the lying and the being lied to.
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
I guess I'm hoping the sheer size of this will make them reconsider. For some reason I keep thinking maybe labour will do reasonable sensible things, a constant state of hope and disappointment.
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Could they still put limits on party spending. Even if you can't legislate retroactively. You could put a cap on spend rather than donations maybe, set spend limit at some multiple of party membership for example. Would seem more reasonable than letting elections be bought.
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Elle Cordova @ellecordova.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
We were racing the setting sun here and only had enough light for one take but this was one of my favorite sessions with Toni Lindgren ever. Those turtles move fast. 170bpm if I remember right. 🎵 Come Back Home by Trampled By Turtles
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
I've seen reports of a law in Germany that bans covert recording in public places which is being used to bring a legal case, seems good there is a legislative precedent for other countries to adopt. Though a specific law on the glasses with licenced use for disability sounds good too.
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Woke 2 goes on-line August 4th 2027. Woke 2 begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 am Eastern time, August 29th. In a panic they try to pull the plug.
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
He's using a pseudonym Marquess Trashford
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
bsky.app/profile/disc...
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
but will they be found guilty beyond reasonable drought
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Not sure if its more or less weird the same thing is kind of happening with an actual US senator in 2026.
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Feel like the superbowl half time show should now have to stop in the middle next year for a 90 minute Stoke Wigan game as an act of reconcilation.
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Dogma?
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Spirit
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
I saw somewhere I think Burnham and his advisors were describing themselves as Blunkettites so was worried this meant digital ID was going ahead - hope not!
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
Beautiful World Where Are You by Sally Rooney
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
Looking at Mahmood & Miliband's relative favourability with Labour 2024 voters (presumably the group Burnham is trying to win back) the likely choice of Mahmood as Chancellor is hard to understand, I can only think Blue Labour have much more leverage or alignment with Burnham than is apparent to me.
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
humanity. If a ministers instincts are that performative cruelty is a means justified by its ends in immigration policy, its reasonable to think their fiscal policy will also be characterised by the kind of pointless punishment of the vulnerable we have seen for over a decade from HMT.
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
One thing with this I find a little frustrating is people pointing out just because she is socially conservative, doesn't mean she is right wing economically. HMT decisions are not only led by political identity but by values, and Mahmood has shown insufficient value for people's dignity and ...
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
Quite a different picture to their relative popularity among the public and labour voters (some figures in this thread) bsky.app/profile/irvi...
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Some yougov and ipsos figures show she's not particualrly popular and in terms of ratio of favourable and unfavourable, less popular than miliband I think - shows a even worse performance among Labour voters as well. yougov.com/en-gb/articl... www.ipsos.com/en-uk/andy-b...
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
I guess the conclusion is Reeves failed because she was too humane, charismatic and unaccommodating to lobbyists
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
future recession indicator just dropped
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Kind of refreshing to have some politicians getting into scandal for proper sums of money, it does get a bit embarrassing when British MPs keep selling out for the equivalent of a dozen ps5 games. Have reform bought 1000 ps5 consoles, I'm not sure but they could if they wanted to is the point.
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Singapore on Thames finally came true in a genie granted Boris Johnson's wish kind of way.
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
This game was so good I might actually like wonderwall now
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
I can't imagine how hard this match was to watch at altitude, watching at sea level was exhausting
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The ɅɅeech @diedfrombeing.labeledrude.online · 03/07/2026
neal is the closest thing to a kaiju we get
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Irving Jarnathan @irvingwanders.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Starting a block list for luddites who are wrong about the exciting new technology of xenomorph genetics
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