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Global temperature projections and remaining carbon budget estimates for critical warming thresholds remain highly uncertain. Accounting for land-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks under high-emission scenarios, we refine these estimates to provide clearer guidance for limiting warming below 2°C and 3°C. These results support more effective mitigation planning and climate policy.

The first-ever international conference on the contentious topic of “overshoot” was held last week in...

The theory behind carbon offset projects is appealing: Instead of an organization cutting its own emissions, it can fund lower-cost carbon-reducing projects elsewhere to “offset” its emissions. The re...