iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Odd, I do so much of it daily. In a few languages too. I'll ask for a refresher course.

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I believe you live and attend brasserie in Paris. I just don't think it has any relevance to the conversation we were having. Try to inform your audience about the EU, the treaties, the procedures and process. There are too many false assumptions at the moment. Time for realism if you want success.

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EU isn't the demandeur. Pretty sure there will be a majority in UK pushing for EU membership in coming years. But you don't have to worry. It will be at least a decade before EU membership.

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Enjoy Paris. Are you going to Berlin next? Getting a drink in all 27 capitals? Good to catch the mood music.

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He talked to UvdL. Yup. But that was in the context of the ongoing work. He might have mentioned what he would say. But that doesn't mean she told him what to say, approved or told him how EU would react. It doesn't work like that.

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Think you probably will. You can even pretend it was your preferred outcome. Reality is simply UK can't afford to stay out. Every new directive that strengthens EU will negatively impact UK. That's no secret.

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Do you know at what level these informal chats happen? As we like to say " ground floor tasks" Berlaymont building has 18 levels.

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Sure, but only the French are there. Come to Brussels if you want to learn how the EU works.

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The EU CANNOT say that. It can't decide that and honestly anyone in the commission who would even imply this would be kicked to the door.

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The informal talks are informative. Not negotiations. They can't be because the commission doesn't have mandate. The process starts once UK formally applies to the council. Everything before that is diplomacy.

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Remember when UK thought it could negotiate an exit before triggering article 50 and the EU said "no, we can't do that, see the treaties. We'll talk when you notify a50"? Same thing here.

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This has nothing to do with Brexit. This is about a country applying to join the EU. ANY country. Brexit was 6 years ago.

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It isn't stubborn. It is a rules based union of 27 nations that have agreed over decades on the procedures. The EU commission can only work within these rules and the 27 won't change treaties for an applicant.

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That is not how the EU works. The EU cannot and will not "make a deal" about a country joining EU. It won't even talk before you formally apply to join. There are no deals, only in or out. At the very least you should learn how the EU works if you want in. enlargement.ec.europa.eu/system/files...

enlargement.ec.europa.eu

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It is impossible because there literally are no negotiations on this. Country applies & commits to the entire acquis. (big) If it is allowed to become a candidate, then negotiations on timelines to adopt it all start. When enough progress is made on a chapter the next opens. Until EU MS are happy.

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Nope. Euro notes are a set design. You can stick anything you want on the coins though.

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You clearly are in denial about how UK behaved as an EU member, during the Brexit negotiations and after. Be warned, the entry to EU is in our EU hands, not yours. It would be wise to listen to why we don't like what we are seeing and hearing and what change in attitude we feel is needed.

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All depends on how UK runs the road to application. Right now, looking like UK has learnt nothing in past 10 years and will try it's old tricks again. That version gets rejected. Believe me.

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This isn't about treaties. This is about member states deciding if UK would be allowed to become a candidate. That means any member state can veto for any reason they want. No criteria, no treaties needed.

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UK's application will fail if you don't have a real plan on how UK will adopt euro during the join campaign and lead up to application. The UK pulled too much shit during membership undermining euro. Member states remember this. There won't be a repeat of that.

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The key words here are "member state". I promise you the UK won't make it to that stage without a clear and realistic path to adopt euro. EU member states are paying attention to the internal UK debate. If there is no support for euro then the UK won't make it very far in its application.

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I didn't say the MS weren't involved. I said there were no negotiations with the applicant and the MS. The UK would be dealing with the commission only. Your attitude to euro is like so many in UK : "they can't make a member join it". I'm warning you won't even be a candidate if you don't mean it.

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Morgan J Freeman @mjfree.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

Stop being so cryptically dense. What are you claiming? The UK ran a referendum to leave twice. False or True? Or are you being pedantic and making a distinction between EEA and EU. Because that's stupid.

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Reposted by Ike Namura

I'm going to post this video every day so we never forget INSURRECTIONIST TRUMP!

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Each EU country has a veto on applications. The French could (probably will) kill the UK application (at least first time around)

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Are you claiming "should we stay" isn't the same as "should we leave" referendum?

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The EU (commission) doesn't decide who becomes a candidate member, the 27 member states do. Each country has their own electorate, their own interests and each has a veto on any applicant. Some may hold referendums to decide on an applicant. A large part of trying to join the EU is politics.

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Are you disputing they were referendums about leaving? One election won't be enough to convince the EU members this time the UK will be a viable member.

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Joined in 1973. Held a referendum to leave in 1975 Held another referendum to leave in 2016. That's 2 times the UK has held a referendum to leave. EU won't be making the same mistake twice. You need more than a little election this time.

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The EU can't be bought. The contribution to the budget is not the driver. There are no negotiations with the member states when applying to join the EU. There are no negotiations on the terms of membership (you can't get opt outs only derogations). UK still does not understand EU at all!

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bsky.app/profile/iken... "It isn't a strong enough for a country that has left once before and has held 2 referendum about leaving"

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I mentioned there were 2 referendums. That is the entire point of what I said. An ex, who finally left having threatened to do so twice, cannot be trusted enough to rely on one puny election outcome.

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Young Brits are not the majority, at best an indication of where attitudes are going for younger generations but it will be a decade before their numbers are large enough. Finding "solutions" for an ex who still has idiotic red lines that reject the EUs biggest achievements isn't in EU's interest.

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That's not the point. The UK has found the need to already consider leaving twice and has left once already. One election isn't going to be enough to show you are committed to EU membership. Not by far. It only starts the UK internal fights.

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Sure, wait another decade and you might pass that mark. Or maybe you could actively try to change IK attitudes. Sell EU as a goal instead of a way out of economic swamp.

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It isn't a strong enough for a country that has left once before and has held 2 referendum about leaving. One that has multiple arge anti EU parties. The Copenhagen criteria are guidelines for the commission to assess a country. There are no criteria for EU members to veto a candidate.

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And we remember last time UK joined it had a referendum to leave just 2 years later.(and tried to use that to bully us into giving UK lower contribution)

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Because the election will be won by, at best (unlikely) 51% of the electorate voting for that and a huge vote for anti EU parties. EU member states won't see that as sufficient support. You need a referendum with over 70% support to be believable as applicant.

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Every EU country has a veto on UK's application and you're going to get a few if you don't sell Euro during rejoin and don't have a clear plan to prove you do really commit to Euro, when you apply. Even then, UK will need to make strong steps to implement that plan as candidate to progress.

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Legally a referendum is not needed. Politically it is. UK application will be vetoed if there isn't clear, consistent and massive support in UK for rejoin.

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If UK runs the rejoin campaign without explicitly stating Euro will become the currency and showing enthusiasm for it, the application will be vetoed. UK pulled too many crap against euro with £ last time. Believe me, £ must go, and UK will need a clear plan to do so before applying.

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The EU member states will slow walk the application anyway. Make sure the support for joining EU is persistent over multiple electorate cycles.

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The application would be legal. But the EU members who all have a veto won't approve. There is no trust the UK won't just pull another brexit sometime in the future. Technically the EU doesn't even require a referendum. Politically is another matter. Massive support over prolonged time is needed.

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Steve Bullock @guitarmoog.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

52% to exit was enough for the UK to exit. 52% won't be enough for the EU to enter. Promise. The EU didn't even need a referendum for the UK to exit. In fact anything the UK decided was "according to their constitution" would make any a50 notification legal and valid. No so for application.

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Reposted by Ike Namura

I think there’s a misunderstanding of the term “EU Accession negotiations”. Negotiation, in this sense, is primarily over how and by when an applicant will implement or align with each area of EU law (Acquis Communautaire), and then whether they‘ve done that. It’s not over *whether* they will.

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