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Ian Welsh

@ianwelsh.bsky.social
507 followers 205 following 665 posts

OG Blogger. ianwelsh.net Email sub: tinyurl.com/vclcqnp A lot less angry than I used to be. Not sure if that's good.

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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Actually, while i don't think there should be zero police, getting rid of 3/4 of them, and 3/4 of US prisons seems entirely reasonable to me given America's ungodly high incarceration rates. www.ianwelsh.net/defund-the-p...
ianwelsh.net
Defund The Police and Abolish Prisons? – Ian Welsh
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Reposted by Ian Welsh
Thomas Neuburger ✍️ @thomasneuburger.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Ian Welsh: America’s Losing the AI Race Hard @ianwelsh.bsky.social www.ianwelsh.net/americas-los...
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kaputte Kaffeemschine auf Betriebsurlaub @blueskyeria.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Everybody has a plan until some billionaires are about to become millionaires. - Rudy H. Tyson
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
I remind you that for most of history, including the parts that worked best in the West, civil servants were considered superior people to businessmen because we didn't exalt greed, but did exalt public service.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
There's a pretty close to exact correlation between lower productivity and lower corporate taxes in Germany. www.ianwelsh.net/germany-want...
ianwelsh.net
Germany Wants to Double Down on Failed Policies – Ian Welsh
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CK DexterHaven 🍂🍁🍂 @ckshowalter.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Bishops doubling down
United States
Conference of
Catholic Bishops
The Catechism of the Catholic Church on Just War Doctrine
All citizens and all governments are obliged to work for the avoidance of war.
However, "as long as the danger of war persists and there is no international authority with the necessary competence and power, governments cannot be denied the right of lawful self-defense, once all peace efforts have failed." (CCC, no. no.2308)
The strict conditions for legitimate defense by military force require rigorous consideration.
The gravity of such a decision makes it subject to rigorous conditions of moral legitimacy.
At one and the same time:
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The damage inflicted by the aggressor on the nation or community of nations must be lasting, grave, and certain;
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There must be serious prospects of success;
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All other means of putting an end to it must have been shown to be impractical or ineffective;
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The use of arms must not produce evils and disorders graver than the evil to be eliminated. The power of modern means of destruction
These are the traditional elements enumerated in what is called the
weighs very heavily in evaluating
"just war" doctrine. The evaluation of
this condition.
these conditions for moral legitimacy belongs to the prudential judgment of those who have responsibility for the common good.
(CATECHISM OF THE CATHOLIC CHURCH, NO. 2309)
The Church and human reason both assert the permanent validity of the moral law during armed conflict. "The mere fact that war has regrettably broken out does not mean that everything becomes licit between the warring parties." (CCC, no. 2312)
PRAY FOR PEACE.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
I've written a post with twenty-one facts about the Iran war, trying to summarize the entire mess. One important point, Iran CAN render Israel uninhabitable any time it chooses. www.ianwelsh.net/twenty-one-s...
ianwelsh.net
Twenty-One Simple Facts About the Iranian War – Ian Welsh
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
The thing about shadowrun, especially SR2, was that it was had a lot of specific rules so that physical adepts weren't just using magic that operated like cyberwear, or that each type of magic user wasn't just "the same with some modifiers". But I haven't kept up since old FASA went down.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
No, it's not just about that. Generally a man can always overpower a women, BJJ teaches you how to fight when someone's on the ground with you, on top of you, holding your wrists, etc... Size/Strength matters, but if you're trained and they aren't you can still win.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Like the last SR campaign I ran was centered around a Paranormal Detective agency. There were a couple SINless Shadowrunner types involved, but most of the characters were citizens, so to speak.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
I did like the class system in Cyberpunk, I admit. The specific class abilities include some really neat stuff like credibility, or "how big a crook can you arrest" and so on. Cyberpunk2020 was set up to tell classic Cyberpunk stories. SR is more... diverse and less channeled.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
the magic rules for the fantasy setting are the most math intensive rules I've ever seen, and I used to design ships in OG Traveller.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Or the cyberpunk/espionage setting - any group of at least ten always has at least one traitor, every group of 1000 has at least one group inside it with different aims (may be getting the numbers wrong.) Stay the hell away from the horror setting, where some characters must die to win.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
And mechanically you need the deck, which is a real problem. But the setting I like a lot, and the world rules--those alone were worth the price of admission. Like the world rules for the 30s setting - everyone is either good or evil, there are no shades of grey here.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Every girl and young woman should take at least a year of Brazilian Ju Jitsu. It's useless in a street or bar fight, but no other martial art teaches you how to avoid rape better.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
The last Shadowrun campaign I ran centered around a paranormal detective agency. :) You don't have to play shadowrunners.
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Reposted by Ian Welsh
Thomas Neuburger ✍️ @thomasneuburger.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
The End of the Game by @thomasneuburger.bsky.social h/t @ianwelsh.bsky.social neuburger.substack.com/p/the-end-of...
neuburger.substack.com
The End of the Game
By starting this war, Israel risked its existence
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
I think another things that might be contributing for you is that Cyberpunk 2020/2077 and WH40K are both very grim. Shadowrun is still cyberpunk, but the grimness is dialed back some, it's not completely hopeless. I prefer that, I find Cyberpunk a bit too hopeless, especially 2077.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
And I mean, I've read tons of books on economics, so this is not uninformed praise!
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
Yeah, a matter of taste. I do think, that the worldbuilding in Shadowrun is superior. The original sourcebooks (original FASA, not the guys who call themselves that now) were really really good. One of them has an anarchist essay which is the best description of competitive markets I've read.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Robots are going to change martial arts, because they will allow full force training against things like joints, necks and genitals. You'll actually be able to train the most dangerous techniques safely.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Every day I get up, check the Iranian American war news and conclude that American elites are not only stupider than I imagine, but stupider than I can imagine.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
If you do not want your writing to be seen as AI, whether it is or not, do not use this format: "This isn't bluffing; it's doctrine." Normal people almost never write like this. (Though I suppose people will start copying AI even when not using it, alas.)
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
There is no fertility crisis. Humanity is in population overshoot (that's what so many species going extinct tells you, tards.) Fertility dropping is good, and a smaller population will lead to higher standards of living. Ignore the natalists. They're morons.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Never thought I'd be rooting for an Islamic theocracy to win, writing that Ansar Allah is the most moral government in the world, and seeing Spain and Ireland being the only ethical nations in the entire Western world.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Prices for a lot of things are going to rise significantly soon, and in many cases there will be shortages or zero supply entirely. If you can, stock up now and check your power situation: is your country going to keep the grid functional? www.ianwelsh.net/personal-con...
ianwelsh.net
Personal Consequences Of The Iran War – Ian Welsh
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
If you do have heroes be sure they've been dead for a LONG time. I'm very fond of Socrates for example. ;)
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Reminder, this is the biggest geopol even of any of our lives. The Iran war is the end of the Global American Empire, it'll still be a regional great power for a while, but the Empire is dying as you watch.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Best thing I ever read about what a good economy is, is that it's when you can start a cat cafe with a bookshop and it's viable.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Ehrlich just underestimate how long a system can stay in overshoot before it crashes out. The ecological version of "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." The hate for him from tech bros is over-wrought. Climate change and ecological collapse exist.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
What's the best type of beer to cook a pork stew or pot roast in?
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
However it is very common for people with doctorates to be well read in their own field and know virtually nothing outside their field. In which case they're crippled and unlikely to do any real original work.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
This is not true of people with Ph.D.s. I have met stupid people with doctorates but I've never met one who was badly read in their own field. But a BA? Absolutely. Especially since most people forget what they learned, they were just trying to get a credential.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
There is zero possibility of competing with me in certain ways if you haven't read like I have. I regularly talk to people with a B.A. in some humanities or social sciences fields and find out I know more about their discipline than they do.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
A very conservative estimate of the number of books I have read in my life is 10,500. 5 books a week over 50 years. This is conservative. Just recently I read four books in one day. This is typical of real readers, not unique to me.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
Do you remember Torg? Great setting. System was pretty awful though.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
Yeah, I remember Dark Conspiracy. Also West End Games "Star Wars" RPG was far better than the d20 system.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
Gygax's productivity was unrivalled. Insane. Stafford was productive, but he was creative in ways Gygax never was. (Runequest's game system, however, is garbage.)
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
the only RPG creator more important than Greg Stafford was Gary Gygax and only because he created and nurtured the industry. (Arneson's helped create D&D, but he didn't stick around and write the sourcebooks.) D&D nerds who hate Gygax are ungrateful turds.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
In other news that no one followed me to hear, the best RPG world is Glorantha, nothing else comes close and I will fight to the death for the truth of this opinion.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
As much as I like Cyberpunk (played the original Cyberpunk 2020 when it came out) I've always thought that Shadowrun was a better game with better world building, at least while the original FASA still owned it.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
Still, this will reduce or end most of your low grade anxiety. It's a HUGE win.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
First step of reducing suffering: I don't have to care what other people think. Second step: I don't have to care what I think. Despite what some self-help types will say, these two steps will not end suffering. This is the low hanging fruit.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
With enough nukes to destroy the world multiple times and 11 aircraft carriers. You may see them that way, the people calling the shots in DC do not and empires die ugly.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
And I can't follow any "God is all powerful and completely good" religion because my God, I live on Earth and I know how much humans can suffer. Obvious bullshit. Obvious denial of reality. Obvious crap.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
I do think there are some clear lines, some places where I can be a fanatic. Rape, for example. There is never any justification for rape. Torture, same. But I can't say the same about, say killing. Some people need to be killed. I don't like that I think that way, but that's how I see it.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
I can't be a Hindu, because I can't look at a Dalit and tell him that he's inferior because his low birth means he has bad karma. I can't be a nationalist, because nationalism justifies unjust war all the time. Can't be a Jew because "chosen people" is poison.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
I think the problem is that I care to much about other people's suffering. I can't be Christian because I can't tell a woman whose father raped her that she has to bear his child, for example. Can't do it.
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Ian Welsh @ianwelsh.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
I've always wanted to be a fanatic. To know the truth, to know I'm right and in the right. Never been able to manage it. (This is sincere. I would love that level of certainty.)
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