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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 14h

Across the 6 Senate elections most likely to decide control of the chamber (AK, IA, OH, ME, MI, TX), Republicans have a spending advantage, with $700M to Democrats’ $600M.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

In a sign that dark money is breaking records, the super PACs affiliated with congressional party leadership all took in more than ever through their dark money arms that keep donors identities secret. On the Senate side, both parties more than doubled their prior record.

Chart showing party affiliated super PACs' revenue through their respective dark money arms.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

The biggest big spenders are heavily favoring Republicans this election. The party-affiliated groups and the Trump-affiliated MAGA Inc. are spending heavily to boost GOP senate candidates, especially in Texas.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

$2 billion in independent expenditures is a 50% increase over the last midterms, and by far the most since super PACs became a thing in 2010.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Study after study shows that firms that give more money to campaigns net more govt contracts. academic.oup.com/book/61887/c...

The 2011 study that spawned this government contracting literature examined
all corporate PACs in operation from 1979 to 2006.30 Controlling for
other variables, PAC donations in the previous electoral cycle were strongly
linked to federal contracts for PACs’ parent firms in the current cycle.31 Specifically,
an additional $200,000 in donations led, on average, to more than a
hundred extra contracts worth more than $5,000,000.32 This finding also held
for both earlier (1980–1992) and later (1994–2006) periods and for both
defense and nondefense firms.33 The latest and most methodologically sophisticated
study looks at the contributions of individual employees (which dwarf
PAC donations) from 2004 to 2015.34 Aggregating these contributions at
the level of the employer, and controlling for other variables, donating firms
again receive more revenue from federal government contracts.35 They do so
whether their donations are treated in binary fashion (yes or no), categorically
(high, medium, or low), or continuously (by dollar amount). Other studies tell virtually the same story. From 1993 to 2010, S&P
500 companies whose PACs made contributions were about twice as likely
to win federal contracts, and a $500 increase in contributions was associated
with roughly $200,000 more in contracting revenue.37 From 2001 to
2006, over a sample of smaller federal no-bid contracts, a $100 increase
in donations from a firm’s employees was linked to around $250 more
in contracting revenue.38 From 2001 to 2010, each additional net member
of Congress prevailing in a close race to whom a corporate PAC contributed
led to the receipt of about two more federal contracts worth over
$11,000,000.39 From 2009 to 2015, companies whose PACs gave more
to Barack Obama than to his opponents, and whose executives attended
meetings at the White House, obtained an average of over $17,000,000
more in federal contracting revenue.40

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

As the midterm congressional elections heat up, the richest political committee in the US is, of course … the super PAC controlled by a president who’s not on the ballot and is constitutionally barred from ever running again.

Table showing the top 5 political committees by cash on hand.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

Foris Dax, the parent company of Crypto[dot]com, gave another $5 million to the pro-Trump super PAC, MAGA Inc., in January, extending its lead as the group's top donor with $35 million donated since Trump was elected.

Image of an FEC filing showing Foris Dax Inc. $5,000,000 donation to the MAGA Inc. super PAC.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

Trump's self-enrichment in just the first year of his second term dwarfs the most notorious corruption scandals in U.S. history. Check out our roundup for more: www.brennancenter.org/our-work/res...

Bar chart showing the $3 billion Trump made in the first year of his second term vastly overshadows amounts involved in the most notorious US corruption scandals.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 19/02/2026

Trump's take dwarfs past U.S. political money scandals (altho it may be that few of Trump's deals are illegal on their face, partially due to holes in ethics laws).

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 14/08/2025

No president-affiliated super PAC has ever raised so much and seen so many $1M+ donations in the first 6 months of a term, even without the constitutional term limit. www.brennancenter.org/our-work/ana...

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 05/08/2025

The MAGA Inc. fundraising since the election smashes the prior record, 6 times the pro-Biden super PAC total by this point in 2021.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 18/07/2025

I'll be speaking at #AAJA25 convention in Seattle, WA, on July 30. You can register at aaja25.org/registration!

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 16/07/2025

Different spenders behave differently. The first analysis of ad tone in 2024 online political ads shows candidates spend the smallest portion on attack ads, while outside groups are most likely to go negative.

A bar chart showing the tone of online ads by candidates and other groups in the 2024 election.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

The technology industry, including crypto interests, was far and away the biggest source of funds, which has not been the case for past inauguration funds.

A bar chart showing the top 20 industries giving to the 2025 inauguration fund, with technology at the top with $46 million.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

Impossible to overstate the unprecedented flood of megadonor money to an incoming president.

A bar chart showing inauguration donations since 2005, as well as money from donors of $1 million or more.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 08/07/2025

Spenders also have different goals. Candidates spend a significant portion on fundraising, while parties and outside groups are largely devoted to persuading audiences about who to vote for.

A bar chart showing the goal of advertisements (persuasion, fundraising, get out the vote) by the type of sponsor (candidate, party, outside group).

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 08/07/2025

A chart showing the tone of advertisements for campaigns, parties, and outside groups.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 12/05/2025

The lion’s share of dark money spending targeted the presidential contest, where dark money heavily favored the Democratic Party. The major Republican and Democratic groups focused on congressional races virtually tied in dark money.

Snakey chart showing portion of dark money coming from pro-Democrat, pro-Republican, and other groups going to different spending categories.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 12/05/2025

Dark money (election spending & contributions by nonprofits & shell cos. that are not legally required to and don’t disclose their donors) has shifted over the years & is now mostly contributions to allied super PACs, the biggest are affiliated with prez candidates & Hill party leaders.

Bar chart showing dark money by type of spending, with the greatest portion coming from contributions to super PACs.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 07/05/2025

A snakey chart showing the relationship between dark money by party supported and what it was spent on.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 07/05/2025

A bar chart showing dark money groups' direct spending versus contributions reported to the FEC over time from 2010 to 2024 and the increase in contributions to super PACs

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

New York State is leading the way with reforms needed to respond to the big money in politics of the Citizens United era. www.brennancenter.org/our-work/res...

Chart showing increase in funds attributable to small donors under public campaign financing in 2024 in New York State.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

Public funds energized small donors: an estimated 50,800 made in-district contributions (in a cycle with no statewide offices on the ballot), which is twice as many as in recent elections.

Bar chart showing the increase in in-district small donors, as numbers of other donors decreased.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

NY public financing multiplies donations of $250 or less from constituents. It made small donors a big force in state elections, allowing candidates to focus on the real people they would represent instead of big checks from special interests.

Chart showing percent of campaign funding attributable to small donors increasing in 2024 under public financing.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 06/02/2025

Candidates eagerly participated across the state, both incumbent and challenger, Democrat and Republican, high- and low-income districts.

Maps showing the broad participation in public financing by candidates across New York's state legislative districts

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 06/02/2025

Before reform, candidates could either focus on constituent small donors OR amass a sizable war chest, but not both. With public financing, plenty of candidates who took in large amounts relied heavily on small donations in their district.

Scatterplot showing that candidates who participated in public financing were able to raise substantial sums while relying largely on constituent small donors

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 06/02/2025

Public funds energized small donors: an estimated 50,800 made in-district contributions (in a cycle with no statewide offices on the ballot), which is twice as many as in recent elections.

Bar chart showing the doubling of constituent small donors in 2024 under public financing in New York State, while other types of donors decreased in number

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 06/02/2025

Bar graph showing the increase in the portion of funding attributable to small donors in NY legislative elections from 2020 to 2024 thanks to public financing

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

The story of how Elon Musk’s young employees gained control of sensitive government data and spending decisions begins in 2010, when five judges twisted the First Amendment to ensure corporations and the individuals who get rich off them can spend as much as they want on elections.

Historian James Burke stands in front of a NASA rocket

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

Most of the spending was by federal campaigns and super PACs, and it spiked as Election Day approached.

Line chart showing the increase in weekly ad spending on Google and Meta over the 2024 election cycle.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

Dark money continued to dominate federal contests. Just one example is the way party-affiliated super PACs rely on sister groups that keep their donors secret.

A chart showing the rapid increase in dark money flowing through party-affiliated super PACs between 2018 and 2024.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

A handful of megadonors helped Trump narrow the fundraising gap with Harris, and one of them essentially helped run his campaign.

A chart showing the large increase in money from donors of more than $5 million each to presidential super PACs from 2020 to 2024.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

The biggest megadonors keep giving more money. They spent more than twice as much on presidential super PACs in 2024 compared to 2020, with the greatest difference benefiting Trump. www.brennancenter.org/our-work/ana...

A bar chart showing the increase in donors of $5 million or more to presidential super PACs between 2020 and 2024.

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Ian Vandewalker @ianvan.bsky.social · 22/04/2024

Panel alert! We'll be discussing hot topics in the administration and enforcement of public campaign financing on May 9! #cogel www.cogel.org/events/Event...

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