Sign in

Howard Schneider

@hpschneider.bsky.social
1.7K followers 1.1K following 275 posts

Reuters Federal Reserve correspondent by way of Washington Post, Philly Daily News, UMD Diamondback and others. Maryland native but hosting wild turkeys and deer in South Carolina. Comments and persimmons are my own.

PostsRepliesMedia
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Fed Governor Chris Waller joined us in the Washington bureau and put the coming rate decision squarely on CPI next week -- thinks disinflation is likely and willing to wait, but also at the switch if it comes in hot.... www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzOe...
youtube.com
LIVE: Reuters NEXT Newsmaker featuring Fed Governor Christopher Waller
YouTube video by Reuters
031
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Warsh and the Fed have a tightwire to walk in September -- follow through with the expected hike and throw a spotlight on the Trump administration's struggles with inflation, or remain on hold and risk seeming inconsistent with the tough talk at Jackson Hole... www.reuters.com/business/war...
reuters.com
Warsh's Jackson Hole encore may put Trump's inflation record under a microscope
After opening the door to higher interest rates last week, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has to decide how to follow through with actions the public and investors will see as both consiste...
121
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
I love my firepit but some transitions can't be resisted. I am not sure how well many of us would do in an economy with a 30% firewood GDP....
nber.org
Firewood in the American Economy: 1700 to 2010.
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
160
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
@steveliesman.bsky.social did a bit of a reality check on the shadow fed notion with Goolsbee. Lots of sentiment pointing to more risk than reward for this idea. Markets are unpredictable. You have no vote, and you'd need to sway the Goolsbees of the world in place of the actual chair...
cnbc.com
Watch CNBC's full interview with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee
CNBC’s Steve Liesman and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, impact of tariff uncertainty, rate path outlook, and mo...
030
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
I get the attraction of this idea…But if you become a “shadow chair” what can you do to actually influence outcomes? You have no vote; markets may put some weight on your words but will mostly care about outcomes; meanwhile you have x months to make mistakes….
151
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
No beehives at the Eccles building. Glad to clear that up.
010
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
Powell ahead of Fin Services committee hearing...rates going nowhere fast....tariff inflation still a risk....need more time to know the policy and know the effects.... #econsky
reuters.com
Powell repeats rate cuts can wait as Fed studies tariff impacts
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday the central bank needs more time to see if rising tariffs drive inflation higher before considering the interest rate cuts that President Donald Trump is demanding.
0133
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
Powell's on the Hill today amid chatter about Trump naming a "shadow" chair. But naming someone and giving them months to make a misstep with markets or the senate seems risky...Meanwhile Fed rotation means the president may only have one more board appointment coming... #econsky
reuters.com
Powell is staying at the Fed, with Trump appointments possibly limited
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell begins two days of congressional testimony on Tuesday under fire from President Donald Trump for not cutting interest rates but with his status as head of the central bank seemingly secured from any presidential action by a Supreme Court ruling last month.
010
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
Liberation Day?
reuters.com
US Supreme Court says Fed is unique, easing worries over Trump's ability to fire Powell
Trump has repeatedly lashed out at Jerome Powell and said he wants to see him gone from the central bank.
030
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
The other side of the bimodal FED….
reuters.com
Exclusive: Fed's Barkin: No rush to cut, can't dismiss inflation risks from tariffs
Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday there's no rush to cut interest rates given the still-unresolved risk that new import taxes might raise inflation, and with the U.S. job market and consumer spending holding up.
021
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
And meanwhile...Is this the shadow shadow rate? www.reuters.com/business/fed...
reuters.com
Fed's Waller: Rate cuts should be considered by July given inflation data - CNBC
The Federal Reserve should consider cutting interest rates at its next meeting given recent tame inflation data and the fact that any price shock from import tariffs will be short-lived, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday.
040
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
Reality check or mark to market...either ways... www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
reuters.com
Trump's economic 'golden age' meets Fed's brass tacks
Trump's promise that "the golden age of America begins right now" remains unfulfilled in the outlook of Federal Reserve officials who so far see his policies slowing the economy, raising unemployment and inflation, and clouding the horizon with a still-unresolved tariff debate.
010
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 16/06/2025
Well this I guess is not surprising but depressing still....The double polarization whammy from AI + social media from Nobel winner Acemoglu et al...
urldefense.com
AI and Social Media: A Political Economy Perspective
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
021
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Add a possible commodity shock to the Fed's list of arguments to stay on hold for now...Energy index falling for four months and now?? www.reuters.com/business/fed...
reuters.com
Fed to keep rates steady as tariffs, possible oil shock counter inflation data
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady next week, with investors focused on new central bank projections that will show how much weight policymakers are putting on recent soft data and how much risk they attach to unresolved trade and budget issues and an intensifying conflict in the Middle East.
0747
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 28/05/2025
The Fed May meeting (minutes released today) was overtaken fast by the China tariff climbdown. But the import may be a)they penciled in very deep effects and that remains a risk until the final tariff schedule is known...b)they took the market vol to heart even if they were not close to intervening.
reuters.com
Fed minutes saw rising inflation, jobless risks as of May meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve officials at their last meeting acknowledged they could face "difficult tradeoffs" in coming months in the form of rising inflation alongside rising unemployment, an outlook buttressed by Fed staff projections of increased risks of a recession, according to newly released minutes of the May 6-7 session.
000
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
Some fun maps and varying estimates....Someday they will have actual numbers to use for estimation but for now laying the groundwork...
reuters.com
Trump's tariff blitz prompts 'firefighting' response from Fed researchers
U.S. Federal Reserve staffers have scrambled since January to decipher what Trump administration trade policies will mean for the economy, with published tallies of potential income losses, inflation estimates running as much as 2 percentage points higher, and breakdowns showing state-by-state winners and losers.
000
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
Was a time not too many years ago when Yellen and others talked about this as a thing -- find ways to destigmatize occupations in both directions...Don't here much about that anymore...BLS 10 yr job projections don't show the below trend slowing.....
000
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
Interesting how quick these folks piled on Bernanke’s proposal…and it will be interesting to see what they come up with as a substitute….
reuters.com
Plan to beef up Fed forecasts hits hurdle among its regional presidents
A proposal for the U.S. Federal Reserve to release detailed economic forecasts after some of its meetings to anchor the discussion of monetary policy is drawing fire from the heads of its regional banks who worry it will be hard to agree on a common outlook and risks further confusing the public.
010
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
is “no” allowed? there’s a reason they try to overlook commodities.
100
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
Baby, meet bathwater… Fed’s Powell oversaw a load of changes to their strategy. Inflation cast it all in a different light. Review is underway as Powell enters his likely last year as chair….
reuters.com
Powell's lean to job market under microscope as Fed revisits strategy
With mounting evidence that tight labor markets do not necessarily boost inflation and facing massive job losses in 2020, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell oversaw a shift in U.S. central bank strategy that put more weight on the goal of full employment and pledged not to use a low jobless rate as a reason in itself to raise interest rates.
021
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 10/05/2025
they’ve all hit on variations of this theme…They are handcuffed until Trump decides what economic world we are living in….
021
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
A lot of Trump signs in our part of SC that just now got fiber to the home…I will say that two Starlink accounts got ditched the next day in my extended family, and ATT fixed wireless lost some business also. Was the Rural Electrification Act also woke? www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Declares High-Speed Internet Program ‘Racist’ and ‘Unconstitutional’
020
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
fiber optic to rural south carolina…goodbye att fixed and starlink…been cobbling from both for a long time
030
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
From Cleveland Fed....Household willingness to trade unemployment for low inflation is pretty limited it turns out...Implies some politically challenging decisions ahead...
clevelandfed.org
Households' Preferences Over Inflation and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs
We document novel facts about US household preferences over inflation and monetary policy tradeoffs. Many households were attentive to news about monetary policy and to interest rates in 2023. The med...
031
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
Even if Trump doesn't try to fire Powell there's a transition coming to an institution that has been a mainstay of global finance... www.reuters.com/business/fin...
reuters.com
Fed at a policy, political crossroads poses global risks
Global central bankers who have come to view the U.S. Federal Reserve as a source of stability now face an unpredictable period where the Fed's monetary policy decisions are being pulled in conflicting directions and the institution's independence could be at risk.
010
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
Latest BBook from the Fed is about as close as you'll get to a blood bath in an institutional document...Pretty relentless -- even the bright spots are discounted with a dour outlook... www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
federalreserve.gov
120
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
Dont know about other dads but I put the training wheels on and took them off when it was risk-appropriate. Meanwhile my wife had them galloping on horses without ever putting the training wheels on even. Every risky family is risky in its own way…
000
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Google AI wants me to miss the ECB press conference: The ECB press conference starts at 2:45 p.m. CET, which is 10:45 a.m. in Takoma Park, MD. Here's a breakdown: CET (Central European Time): 14:45 CET (2:45 p.m.) Takoma Park, MD: 10:45 a.m. (CET is 6 hours ahead of Eastern Daylight Time).
010
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
What would it take to turn the U.S. sports talk ecosystem into same intensity art and (actual) music criticism and good ideas for raised bed gardens and local fauna habitat? Feel we’d all be better off…Sad, as someone once said
010
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Powell today is largely a repeat of what he said to SABEW earlier this month re larger than expected impact of tariffs and coming (maybe) tradeoffs...Still no mention of market vol...Maybe Qs will get to that....Maybe a bit more weight on the growth outlook...
federalreserve.gov
Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook
Thank you for the introduction. I am looking forward to our conversation, Professor Rajan. First, I will briefly discuss the outlook for the economy and moneta
020
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
Why isn’t there ez pass for major urban transit systems? Tired of juggling wmata, cta, marta etc…
100
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
Pick a lane as they say....Waller says Fed may end up cutting to head off a downturn because of tariffs....Or not have to react at all if it is negotiated down...Choose your own adventure:
federalreserve.gov
Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook
Thank you, Jack and thank you to the CFA of St. Louis for the opportunity to speak to you today. It's a pleasure to be back home here in the city where I worke
010
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
Did the pandemic…end? Remind with proof please…I am stuck in a Shirley Bassey song.
000
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
Living without empathy must be awful. I spend half my time wondering what's in somebody else's head; horrible to be cooped up in your own all the time.
000
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
so much for the inflation theory...
000
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
Some serious ground-truthing from Fed's Kashkari this a.m. courtesy of @steveliesman.bsky.social on @cnbc.com. Markets may show investors turning from U.S. Fed cant dictate long rates only smooth through shocks. Reluctant to intervene absent a true market function crisis. Worth a listen...
030
Reposted by Howard Schneider
Brian Romanchuk @brianromanchuk.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
My ancient philosophy is rusty, but telling Socrates that ideas can cross borders might have led to a really long dialogue.
011
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
The tariff-pause-that-left-a-bunch-of-stuff-in-place has washed over the Fed with barely a mention. The outlook, which shifted mostly on the basis of the earlier announcements that were not on the giant board, remains for slower growth and higher prices. Recent vol in seen as market functioning...
reuters.com
Trump tariff pause will not change fundamentals for a Fed that sees risks ahead
President Donald Trump's pause on some of his new import taxes may have eased some of the stress building in financial markets for now, but leaves in place the same set of circumstances that had reset the U.S. economic outlook with rising recession risks and potentially rising inflation.
010
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Is this the day Vanguard said would happen so don’t do the thing you are about to do, or the day to do the thing because of the other days that made you want to do it?
000
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Hmmm….
washingtonpost.com
U.S. ‘alarmed’ after American lecturer charged with insulting Thai monarchy
The State Department says Paul Chambers was arrested under Thailand’s lèse-majesté laws, which harshly punish any criticism of the royal family.
000
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Carville was right.
010
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Stl Fed’s Musalem: Growth slipping below trend, inflation risks higher. Market vol part of reassessing global growth outlook; no sense of market dysfunction…. @reuters.com
reuters.com
Exclusive: Fed's Musalem sees growth slipping below trend, higher inflation risk
U.S. economic growth will likely slip "materially" below trend and the unemployment rate will rise over the year as firms and households adjust to prices driven higher by new import tariffs, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said.
022
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
just got called dapper for my Donegal tweed. I’ll take it (and reminds one way around tariffs is take a trip and race past customs)
010
Reposted by Howard Schneider
The Associated Press @apnews.com · 08/04/2025
Doug Tallamy is an entomologist, author and arguably the father of the modern native plants movement.
bit.ly
Oaks, asters and 6 other 'keystone' native species to plant for biodiversity
Doug Tallamy is an entomologist, author and arguably the father of the modern native plants movement.
417325
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Some chat on the Fed and why swooning stocks on their own don't raise much fuss... www.reuters.com/podcasts/sco...
reuters.com
White House infighting on tariffs and more: Listen to Reuters World News
The U.S. Supreme Court has cleared the way for the Trump administration to keep deporting alleged Venezuelan gang members using a 1798 law, but with certain limits.
000
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Very interesting. Not sure what to make of the subjunctive mood. All this is up for debate? Planning as retrofit? Also a nod deep to Chips act etc as a direction for other sectors… www.nytimes.com/2025/04/08/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | ‘Liberation Day’ Was Messy, but Trump’s Tariffs Can Still Work
It’s a matter of timing and communication.
000
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
Rationing starts Monday…
020
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
really interesting idea…wonder about delayed/precautionary effects also…Home improvements or auto replacement put off a year to save…MPC gets a big nudge lower…
011
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
Giving American Beauty and Terrapin Station a listen back to back following weird question to Powell today. It’s a bad comparison. “Ripple” is a standout (the harp unstrung!!). “Estimated Prophet” has to be the most threatening set of lyrics ever put to a reggae beat…Good creepy but a different ilk.
010
Howard Schneider @hpschneider.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
so we got purple ties and the Grateful Dead but no questions on a massive market meltdown...sorry folks...
010