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Micah McCurdy

@hockeyviz.com
14K followers 568 following 15K posts

Math, hockey, viz, apocrypha

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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 31m
V. fortunate to have the two tie points they've gotten, to be honest.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 1h
Damning with faint praise maybe.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 2h
Point projections over the past fortnight.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 2h
And, vitally, not bankrupt yet!
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 3h
I do kind of enjoy sending these emails some days.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 3h
Yes perhaps - my game simulation produces regulation ties about 17% of the time. Historically we've seen higher rates, about 22% or so in the last ten seasons. I've tinkered with introducing some sort of mechanism in my game sim to close the gap but for now they all seem too artificial.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 6h
I dunno, the Bruins got a few chances in his minutes too.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 8h
Yesterday's games:
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 16h
Has a real "ok now let's play for money" vibe.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 16h
Pretty thorough dismantling even if they did let their foot off the gas after around thirty minutes.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 17h
This is three games and that is 82, of course, but it wasn't nearly so bad.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 17h
Sportsnet announcers should not act so mystified about why Ullmark didn't come out to start the third but now is serenely on the bench, seemintly no worse for wear. Do they not know who Roberto Luongo is?
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 17h
Goalies are a difficult part of the job. But we know about Ersson.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 17h
Flyers shot results looked bad going /into/ tonight.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 19h
Rough.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 19h
If Tim Stützle gets a natural shorthanded hat-trick I think I will have to get a tattoo of umlauts or something.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 19h
Thanks! I don't remember when I added the times.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 19h
The free game on HockeyViz tonight is Senators at Bruins. All game charts: hockeyviz.com/game/2026020041
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 19h
Sportsnet, sadly.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 19h
Tonight's games:
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 22h
I'm not sure. Maybe that's it.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 23h
I don't know. That is strange to me too.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 23h
#BasicStuff If you look at xG per shot the story, very broadly, is that teams have become a little choosier in the past decade after becoming gradually a little less choosy in the decade before that.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 23h
#BasicStuff If you don't weight the shots by danger (xG) but just count every shot the same, then you can see why 4v3 is more dangerous than 5v3: because the time between shots is smaller at 4v3.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 23h
#BasicStuff zooming in on the more common strengths shows a more gradual increase in the danger of powerplays.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 05/10/2026
#BasicStuff Chance rates by strength. Curious to me how the "v3" powerplays have ticked up recently. (The EN line is just assuming 0.6 xG per shot, it doesn't really make sense to assign an xG to a shot taken against no goalie.)
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 05/10/2026
I don't know, but it's nowhere close to -2xG/60. In fact I doubt you'd see half that over a full season even at worst.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 05/10/2026
Point projections over the past fortnight*.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 05/10/2026
V. early 5v5 chance rates. Flyers and Chicago already three games like this.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 05/10/2026
Yesterday's games:
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 05/10/2026
My continuing #hockeyfightsdv pledge is 5% of all HockeyViz subscriptions to bryonyhouse.ca. The total for September and October is $728.12.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 05/10/2026
Go in peace to love and serve the Lord,
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 05/10/2026
When are you gonna wear it?
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 04/10/2026
We ordered so much food that the waiter immediately told us it was too much food. We told him it was not too much food. In the end we were both right.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 04/10/2026
An extremely good Ethiopian place opened up just next to my bagel place. I am a wealthy man.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 04/10/2026
A happy accident
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 04/10/2026
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 04/10/2026
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 04/10/2026
I think they overperformed their roster talent last season by a good piece, especially finishing and in goal; so I don't think that my projections for this season as a weakening.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 04/10/2026
A downswing from what?
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 04/10/2026
Point projections over the past fortnight*.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 04/10/2026
Yesterday's games:
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 04/10/2026
Leafs hit the goalframe six times.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 04/10/2026
I can see him doing forty in some marathon playoff game. Maybe fifty
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 04/10/2026
(mixed media)
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 04/10/2026
Secret uber recordings are more fun than "I don't like it here as much as I used to"
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 04/10/2026
I don't think I've ever seen a delay of game penalty assessed for deliberately dislodging the net if you use an opponent to do it. A little unspoken exception.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 04/10/2026
Old and busted trivia: home/road power-play splits. New & hot trivia: games where the scorers all have names of the same visual width.
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 04/10/2026
The free game of the night on HockeyViz is Stars at Predators. hockeyviz.com/game/2026020030
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Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 04/10/2026
We used to be a proper country.
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