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Heiner Mikosch

@hmikosch.bsky.social
19 followers 8 following 36 posts

Economist, Researcher

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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
API Updates and Elastic Net Specifications As part of our continuing efforts to improve the Nowcasting Lab @ KOF, ETH Zurich, we have updated some of our model specifications. This has also resulted in changes to some of our API endpoints. As we continuously develop, revise, and occasionally…
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com
API Updates and Elastic Net Specifications
As part of our continuing efforts to improve the Nowcasting Lab @ KOF, ETH Zurich, we have updated some of our model specifications. This has also resulted in changes to some of our API endpoints. As we continuously develop, revise, and occasionally retire individual models and methods, we need to adjust our API naming conventions from time to time to ensure a coherent and consistent structure.
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
Presentations at SNB and SECO Recently, we have been presenting the KOF Nowcasting Lab at the Swiss National Bank and the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO to inform about the current status and work in progress. Here is the link to the presentation: I would like to highlight four slides…
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com
Presentations at SNB and SECO
Recently, we have been presenting the KOF Nowcasting Lab at the Swiss National Bank and the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO to inform about the current status and work in progress. Here is the link to the presentation: I would like to highlight four slides from the presentation: 1.) Website viewer statistics During the past 12 months, the Nowcasting Lab Website received 4100 unique visitors (unique APIs) and 15400 total page views.
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Presented the KOF Nowcasting Lab (current status & work in progress) at the Swiss National Bank 📊🏦 Slides here 👉 drive.google.com/file/d/1SraS... nowcastinglab.org #Nowcasting #Forecasting #Macroeconomics #NowcastingLab @kofeth.bsky.social
drive.google.com
NCL_Presentation_SNB_2026-05-12.pdf
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Behind-the-Scenes Model Updates If you’ve visited the Nowcasting Lab website recently, you may not notice anything dramatically different at first glance. The charts are still there, the country pages still update regularly, and the overall experience feels familiar. But behind the scenes, a…
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com
Behind-the-Scenes Model Updates
If you’ve visited the Nowcasting Lab website recently, you may not notice anything dramatically different at first glance. The charts are still there, the country pages still update regularly, and the overall experience feels familiar. But behind the scenes, a meaningful change has taken place. This post explains what changed, why it matters, and why implementing it required more care than it might seem.
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Honored to have presented at the Meeting of the Forecasting Group at @bundesbank.de. drive.google.com/file/d/1akzS... Thanks to Malte Knüppel, Michael Kleemann, Nicolas Pinkwart, Sercan Eraslan, and Stephan Kohns for the discussion. #research #forecasting @kofeth.bsky.social @ethz.ch
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LinkedIn
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
News from the Nowcasting Lab @kofeth.bsky.social: We’ve launched new data access options 👇 • CSV: quick download of key #GDP #predictions • API: full GDP predictions across models & specs Explore + docs: nowcastinglab.org/download #nowcasting #forecasting #GDP #ETHZurich
nowcastinglab.org
Nowcasting Lab
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
At @fernunihagen.bsky.social this week presenting “Strategic #Managers with #NoisyBeliefs: Evidence from #CarbonPricing”. Thanks to Robinson Kruse-Becher for the invite & hospitality, and to #seminar participants for good discussion. Pit-stop in #Cologne! #research #economics
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Last Friday: First time at HEC Lausanne! 🎓 Joint #research with Kenza Benhima, Andreas Fuster & Sébastien Houde—enjoyed the in-person work, fresh OJ, and a train-beer. What a pleasure. 🍊🍺
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Nice #R User Group Meeting at @KOFETH_en last week. Enjoyed Stéphane Bisinger on #Airflow + #Ray powering the Nowcasting Lab 🚀 Pics below: Stéphane in action.
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
Back from CFE-CMStatistics 2025 at Birkbeck, London! www.cmstatistics.org/CFECMStatist... Presented in #MachineLearning for #Nowcasting session: drive.google.com/file/d/1CXzK... Interesting papers, great chats, and Big Ben at midnight—memorable conference! ✨ #economics #econometrics #statistics
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
Great discussions at last week's #AIECE, Brussels: resilient #global #growth, #tariff passthrough, #EU #forecast updates, #ECB #policy insights, and fresh work on #productivity & tariff-shock modelling. Thanks to all speakers & hosts. aiece.org/general-meet... See you in Stockholm in spring 2026.
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
🎉 Our paper “Seeing and Hearing is Believing” is conditionally accepted at the European Economic Review! We show that #audiovisual #centralbank #communication—especially video—improves #inflation‐expectation updating. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... #research #economics #monetarypolicy
papers.ssrn.com
Seeing and Hearing is Believing: The Role of Audiovisual Communication in Shaping Inflation Expectations
This paper presents novel causal evidence on the relationship between various communication channels employed by central banks and households' expectations abou
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
Great discussions at the #RealTime #Economics Conference @bundesbank.de (Eltville, 23–25 Oct)! Enjoyed exchanges on new #methods, #data, #nowcasting, & #forecasting with great colleagues. #research #macroeconomics Poster link 👉 drive.google.com/file/d/1OWvY...
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
Great to have been back in #Munich for the CESifo #Macroeconomics & #Survey #Data Conference at ifo Institute — soaked up great talks and enjoyed #Bavarian vibes! drive.google.com/file/d/1qF4r...
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Exciting week at @kofeth.bsky.social hosting #Uzbekistan’s Center for #Economic #Research and Reforms! 🚀 Deep dive into #macro #nowcasting & short-term #forecasting: DFM, MIDAS, ML, #data, R coding for #GDP nowcasts.
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
Global #growth to #slow in H2 2024, but #rebound in 2025 on policy easing, rising real wages & #German fiscal push for #Europe. #GDP forecasts (%): 2025/26: 🇺🇸1.7/1.8, 🇨🇳4.9/4.5, 🇪🇺1.5/1.6, 🇩🇪0.3/1.2, 🇬🇧1.4/1.3, 🇫🇷0.7/1.1, 🇮🇹0.6/0.8, 🌍2.8/2.7. kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts... @kofeth.bsky.social
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
Great meeting Dimitris Georgarakos (@ecb.europa.eu) at @kofeth.bsky.social #Research #seminar: #Randomized #scenario #survey #experiment shows: #geopolitical #risk → #households expect negative effects on #finances → cut #consumption. With Gorodnichenko, Coibion & Kenny: www.nber.org/papers/w34195
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
Great pre-event for #KOF Fall 2025 #Forecast! Interesting #exchange with journalists from Tages-Anzeiger, Finanz und Wirtschaft, and AWP. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Hans Gersbach presenting on #Swiss & #international #trade, & how to react to recent #Trump #tariffs. kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-...
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
The #NowcastingLab presents the latest #GDP #Forecast for #Brazil! 📊 By Lucas Gabriel Martins de Oliveira (#macroeconomic #forecasting). Check it out: nowcastinglab.org/assets/brazi... More background: blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/09/22/b...
nowcastinglab.org
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
#International #macroeconomy at #crossroads: Pressing issues: #Europe: Mixed signals from latest #indicators. Will #recovery stall before it turns into #upswing? #USA: #Labor market shows weakness. Higher #tariffs & tighter #immigration put pressure on #costs & #prices. Run out of steam?
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
The #holiday season is behind us, and many of us are settling back into #work. Wishing you a #productive and #rewarding finish to the year!
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
News from #KOF #Nowcasting Lab (nowcastinglab.org): Reached unexpected "milestone": our #computing processes consumed so many #MATLAB #licenses that entire system came to a halt. Full story on our #blog: blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/07/11/h... @kofeth.bsky.social @mathworks.bsky.social
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com
How the Nowcasting Lab Consumed 10,000 MATLAB Licenses
In a recent and rather unexpected turn of events, the Nowcasting Lab managed to use up all available MATLAB licenses at ETH Zurich—approximately 10,000 in total. As a result, MATLAB license allocat…
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
#KOF Summer 2025 #Forecast round has started. #Global #macroeconomic #outlook on Monday & #Swiss #economic outlook today. Top topic (again): How does #trade #conflict affect the #economy in short & long run? @kofeth.bsky.social Pictured below: Dr. Alexander Rathke, a master of forecasting
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
More impressions of the #Meeting of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes this week in #Oslo at Statistics Norway.
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
Impressions from Day 1 of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes #Meeting in #Oslo at Statistics Norway Look at the #employment rate of refugees in Poland as compared to #Switzerland and #Germany! Presentation by Marcin Klucznik (Polish Economic Institute). @kofeth.bsky.social
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
#Meeting of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes this week in #Oslo (May, 15-16), hosted by #StatisticsNorway. Two days packed with #presentations & #discussions on the #macroeconomic #outlook for #Europe and selected structural topics. @kofeth.bsky.social
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
#Forecasting #NACE Activities in the #Eurostat Structural Business Statistics blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/05/09/n... Excited to work, joint with Maurizio Daniele, as Experts on behalf of @ec.europa.eu Competence Centre on Composite #Indicators and Scoreboards (JRC-COIN). #eu #kof #ethz
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
Another wonderful workshop last week: #Machine #Learning #Economic #Forecasting and #Nowcasting Workshop at #Copenhagen Business School organized by @striaukas.bsky.social Presented on: An Observation-Driven Mixed-Frequency VAR Model With Closed-Form Solution drive.google.com/file/d/1CXzK...
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
Great to have participated in the #Macro & #Financial #Econometrics Workshop at U #Heidelberg organized by Christian Conrad #research #economics #forecasting @kofeth.bsky.social Photo impressions below:
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
Dan Murphy (danpmurphy.com) at @kofeth.bsky.social BB Seminar: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... #Housing and non-housing #consumption are complements. #Households in smaller homes save more. Denser countries → higher #saving, lower #rates. Thought-provoking #research! @ethzurich.bsky.social
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
#KOF #International #Forecasts Spring 2025: kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts... #US will grow below potential as #consumer #spending & #investment weaken due to #tariffs & #uncertainty. #Europe eyes #upswing despite tariff threat; #Germany sees #fiscal boost from end 2025. #Risks from tariff #escalation.
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
Wonderful #Conference on #Real-Time #Data Analysis, #Methods, and Applications in #Prague!! Thank you Czech National Bank and CERGE-EI for the local organization. drive.google.com/file/d/1sIZ9... real-time-economics.org/wp-content/u... #economics #research #macroeconomics @kofeth.bsky.social
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
#Macroeconomic #forecast process at @kofeth.bsky.social started with discussion of #international #economic #outlook. One key topic: #Fiscal #stimulus plans in #Germany. How much? When? #Multiplier size? --- Will take a while to materialize, but then #growth effects will be strong temporarily.
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Interesting #Macro & #Finance #Roundtable by Anjeza Kadilli (HEG) and Reto Cueni (Vontobel) Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank) presenting on: Implications of #Geoeconomic #Fragmentation for Bystanders cepr.org/publications... Good discussion among the participants! #research #policy #geoeconomics
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Reposted by Heiner Mikosch
KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zürich @kofeth.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
"Wir könnten jetzt in einen regelrechten Handelskrieg geraten" warnt KOF-Ökonom Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social im Beitrag der Tagesschau @SRF angesichts der von den USA erhobenen Zölle gegen Kanada und Mexiko www.srf.ch/play/tv/-/vi...
srf.ch
Zölle gegen Kanada und Mexiko – Trump startet Handelskrieg - Tagesschau - Play SRF
Die von US-Präsident Donald Trump angekündigten Importzölle auf Waren aus Mexiko und Kanada sind in Kraft getreten. Jetzt droht ein nordamerikanischer Handelskonflikt von unbestimmter Dauer und ungewi...
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
#Research talk by @iyotzov.bsky.social (BoE) at @kofeth.bsky.social: How Curvy is the Phillips Curve? - Convex, but only for high #inflation #firms (cf. figure). www.nber.org/papers/w33234 Thanx @lukashack.bsky.social & @eneabaselgia.bsky.social! Pic: Ivan, Remo Gurtner & @hmikosch.bsky.social:
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Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
Mein erster Post auf #Bluesky: Was ist von Donald Trumps "Zolldrohstrategie" zu halten? Hier ein Statement dazu in #SRF 10 vor 10 letzte Woche: www.srf.ch/play/tv/10-v... Ein knappes Textmemo zum Thema: drive.google.com/file/d/1_FTb... #Zoll #USA #EU #Trump #KOF #ETHZ
srf.ch
10 vor 10 - Auswirkungen von US-Zöllen und Gegenzöllen - Play SRF
US-Importzölle für Güter aus Mexico sind vorerst um einen Monat aufgeschoben. Wie reagiert die EU auf angekündigte US-Zölle und welche Auswirkungen drohen der Schweiz?
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