iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Brb was getting married polish style. My liver hurts.

Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Reference Dependent Utility as applied to voting and political choice. Why a 2% return on an asset society has trained you to expect 7% on can change your vote. Why politics is a market with an appetite for variance, and the tail is violence henryfudgeofficial.substack.com/p/the-plague...

henryfudgeofficial.substack.com

The Plague

The political lottery, the market for Demagogues, the appeal of revolution, the probability of insurrection.

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Ahh fantastic, would love that, happy to chat to anyone on the body of work so far. Also thank you so much for shouting it out 🫡

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Hōnea Kore - A Black hole. My critical breakdown of New Zealand. Once Henry George’s pride, and now a lesson in how liberalization begets immiseration #newzealand #rentierblackhole substack.com/@henryfudgeo...

substack.com

Henry Fudge (@henryfudgeofficial)

Honea Kore, Maori for A Black Hole. A structural breakdown of the New Zealand Economy from the perspective of the Rentier Black Hole.

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Thank you so much! I have a few more coming out 🫡

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

There’s a fantastic and horrendous demonstration of this currently in Korea with its stock market bang recently, I did a break down of the Korean phrases they use to describe it also recently. A poignant one, ‘soul scraping’ to scrape everything even parts of your soul together to buy a house.

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

I am currently looking into the cultural and linguistic influences of this generation being stuck below the reference. Billions have made their own words for it seemingly. What’s your word for this I don’t know yet? #housingcrisis #costofliving #lockedout #economics #affordability

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

People talking about the AI bubble, point at America, openAI, data centers in the US. I’m looking at Hong Kong. By my framework, the fuse is lit. I’ll be dropping the article today.

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

This fragility will only be revealed at its extreme. A minor bit of negative equity, then a little income shock. Small enough to be a passing breeze to a normal productive economy. We will sit around in a rotten country with nothing left and ask why we thought it was ‘as safe as houses’

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

We will Iive in a zombie economy of rotten factories, collapsing real wages, people living hand to mouth trying to pay the rent on an over levered buy to let. We will produce NOTHING. But the gdp will look fine.

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

This is the result. A wealth pyramid filled with houses built decades ago, propped up with bank credit stabilized by real wages that are stagnant and will fall if we don’t fix this. All of it looks ‘rational’ until you see it all at once. At one point these real wages will not service the debts.

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Rents are higher. Cost of living is up, you need to bargain for higher wages…right when costs of operating businesses are up from their rents, with a lack of bank finance that’s stuck in mortgages instead. Their only recourse is to compress wage growth or raise their prices.

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

This means our capital stock is stagnant, innovation is muted compared to what it could be. Real outputs growth trajectory is compressed. That means your marginal productivity is lower that means your wages are lower. Double effected by increasing the cost of capital for incumbent businesses

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Every dollar into old houses with jumbo mortgages, is a recursive investment in a doom loop. Pumping it up, making the returns look better. Critically, it’s a dollar not in production, innovation, infrastructure, the green transition. Whatever you like, it’s not there it’s in a buy to let.

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Everyone had a big argument about wealth when UBS dropped the global wealth report…no one actually asked, what’s in the pyramid. 58% of it is land and real estate. The question shouldn’t be, is the glass half full, is the glass half empty. It should be why does it stink of piss.

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

It’s why wages look stagnant in the west, the rents keep going up, and we have a cost of living crisis imo

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

The diversion of capital flows into housing and land not into business and capital, means two things. The land recursively increases in value, a self fulfilling prophecy of doom. It also reduces the marginal productivity of labor relatively, while rent eats up at the bottom with costs.

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Why would I build a factory, innovate, do R+D, hire workers, take real risks to generate a profit. I could just go down get a mortgage and rent it to some geek in the Silicon Valley for 4k + bills. Every time a company near by gets a series E you just put rents up. That’s why our system is broken.

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Not really. It’s just an indicator under the microscope of the incentives and rational allocations in our economies while we fail to treat land properly. Why would I bother to build something cool, I can just own a block of flats near some nerds building something cool.

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

#sanfransisco real estate is up 19% this year. 14% the year previous. Driven aggressively by pumped AI workers salaries. Working on a quick article on how the best investment in the Silicon Valley is probably a few rental apartments and how it explains the doom of a #rentierblackhole

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

I have a nice mechanism for that. It’s on the website 🫡

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

I’m doing one of my next breakdowns on New Zealand!

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

The blind will lead the blind on a path paved with good intentions into the singularity. A brief review of prosperity 2030. The blinding that occurs when you stare at the accretion disk and fail to notice the black hole. open.substack.com/pub/henryfud...

open.substack.com

The Blind will lead the Blind

Blinded by the accretion disk. They see only the symptoms not the cause

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

I am explicitly stating their lives are shitty. I do not apologize for saying that, they will all agree with me. Your pleasantries and smiley outlook will not pay the rent

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

I also read it. Seems like wonkery. In a sentence, what any rational investor will do if they implement this. - buy lots of houses (tight market, you just pass the property tax on as higher rents) - in an LTD, levered to the max - Lombard against my LTD. No real taxes paid. Lmao

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

I have just seen prosperity 2030s policy recommendations. Current rating 4/10 Firstly on pure policy set, weak where it shouldn’t be, too ambitious where it shouldn’t. Summary: Academic wonkery Video coming

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

A reasonable course of action. Every developed nation in Europe holds vocational training in a much higher regard than us, with our snobbery on degrees

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Sure, objectively though, the budget is essentially 0. The required images are pretty specific. Stock images are cringe and I don’t really want to just post a graph, or like, a dad selfie. What is objectively the ‘right’ way then I don’t really get it.

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

I appreciate the other nice messages but on this part to be blunt. My total revenue on TikTok to date is $1.03, I think 40 quid on Substack. Stock images are cringe, and I don’t really want to endorse just exploiting artists in some weird deal for like no money, or a cringe selfie I guess? Idk

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

It’s probably partially my writing style also I’m still new to it all. It was artistic flare in using ‘degeneracy’ as stated in the article. To show how people above a reference under my framework, can’t understand the choices, and so moralise them instead as personal vice or failures etc

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Yeah I answered her. It seems a bit like a misread of the article, which discusses convex risky bets (only fans is a risky bet, a small fraction of creators generate the majority of its revenues) not a demonization of SW. The moral frame is artistic flare for how people above a reference see it.

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Fundamentally and theoretically, to even quote that bastard Milton Friedman, ‘it’s the least bad tax’ I think the issue of it is political and sociological. The valuation in particular being subjective in interpretation, it’s why I tried to design an objective version, it’s on the substack!

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

I thought I made the point well in the article but if that artistic flair to comment on how society demonizes what I determine as rational behaviour didn’t land as I intended, that’s probably just my bad, apologies

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

People above the reference don’t understand the choices, they seem risky, wild. They moralise them. ‘The decay of society’ the ‘kids are corrupted.’ As has been said many times throughout history. My point is to explain them as rational choices of a cohort below the reference.

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Re the framing of the article in a ‘moralizing tone’ that’s partially by design. To show the irony of reference dependent utility and risk seeking behavior and how it is framed.

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

On that point. I’d happily defend it based on the distribution of incomes of these creators. Again, to state very clearly. Not a judgement of the activity, simply noting a very tiny minority of creators are generating the majority of revenues.

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

If it works it works well, if it doesn’t it could potentially infer a loss, strictly possible difficulties in re-entering a traditional job market. A small fraction of creators are those who generate the ‘transformational sums’. Ie high kurtosis (very small odds of a huge payoff)

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Henry Fudge @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Hi, on this point it’s not a discredit of sex work being work. The focus is on the concept of risk seeking activities that extend beyond finance. Implicitly, that onlyfans, regardless of a moral position on it, does pose a risk and convex payoffs.

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