Henry Cust @henrycust.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Why it matters: this is the first quantitative evidence from organisations that lost US funding, and most serve key populations who often have no other provider. Four is a small sample, but it points to continuity plans, emergency transition funding and domestic financing. 5/6 000
Henry Cust @henrycust.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Prevention, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and testing fell furthest. Services largely remained below 2024 levels through to March 2026. Treatment also fell despite the humanitarian waiver. 4/6 100
Henry Cust @henrycust.bsky.social · 05/10/2026I analysed routine service data from four non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in Uganda and Zimbabwe. Services fell by between 22% and 72% after the US stop-work orders, depending on the service. 3/6 100
Henry Cust @henrycust.bsky.social · 05/10/2026In January 2025, the US government froze foreign aid and halted work under the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), the largest external funder of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) services globally. 2/6 100
Henry Cust @henrycust.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Two pieces of news. I have started as a Fellow in the Department of Health Policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), and today my paper on the 2025 US funding cuts is published in The Lancet Global Health. 1/6 100
Henry Cust @henrycust.bsky.social · 18/07/2026I'm not convinced the French are taking this 100% seriously 000
Henry Cust @henrycust.bsky.social · 24/03/2026This work depended on collaborators in Uganda & Zimbabwe who shared their data at risk to their organisations. They remain unnamed co-authors to protect their future funding. They deserve credit they can't publicly receive. 020
Henry Cust @henrycust.bsky.social · 24/03/2026These are the first quantitative estimates from organisations that had US funding terminated and are not modelled projections. Declines were immediate and show no signs of recovery eight months on. 110
Henry Cust @henrycust.bsky.social · 24/03/2026You can download the working paper here: duke.box.com/v/USAIDHIVCUST SSRN preprint: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....duke.box.comManuscript_II.pdf | Powered by Box 101
Henry Cust @henrycust.bsky.social · 24/03/2026Everyone knew the 2025 US aid freeze would devastate HIV services in sub-Saharan Africa. Now the evidence is emerging New working paper, real service data from 4 NGOs in Uganda & Zimbabwe: prevention ↓60%, testing ↓50%, treatment ↓30%. #HIV #PEPFAR #USAID 122
Reposted by Henry CustCenter for Global Development @cgdev.org · 03/09/2025Project Resource Optimization—an independent initiative hosted at CGD—is mobilizing private funding for life-saving needs. The team reflects on lessons learned & challenges ahead in the first post of a new series: bit.ly/45XF0Cbbit.lyThe High Cost of Pausing Life-Saving AidWhen the US froze foreign assistance in early 2025, it halted scores of USAID-supported programs that were saving lives. Project Resource Optimization (PRO) has helped mobilize nearly $46 million to r... 042
Henry Cust @henrycust.bsky.social · 20/02/2025I thought Johnson's words were most interesting, he clearly supports Ukraine sovereignty whilst not being outraged by trumps words. I interpret the 'shock' as Europe taking responsibility for its borders and it's share of NATO etc. 000
Henry Cust @henrycust.bsky.social · 12/02/2025Man buys things, man uses thing more... What's the controversy? 000
Henry Cust @henrycust.bsky.social · 14/11/2024So cool! My prior is drought and other shocks would lead to increased religiosity (building more monuments) to both appease gods they considered responsible, but also to reduce unrest from unemployment. Excited to dig in and find out why I'm wrong! 000