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Aidan Kelly

@helloaidank.bsky.social
854 followers 3.4K following 130 posts

Senior Data Scientist at Nesta in the Sustainable Future team | Passion for clean energy and all things generative AI | Views are my own. MSc from UvA, PhD in particle physics from UCL.

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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I regret to inform everybody but "I'm upping my p(doom)" is an absolute banger. www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EoO...
youtube.com
i'm upping my p(doom)
YouTube video by mexicat
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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
New blog from me: devolving the Warm Homes Plan is good, but not the Boiler Upgrade Scheme! Energy Sec Miatta Fahnbulleh has announced that the £15bn Warm Homes Plan will be devolved. We think this is good - mayors are well placed to upgrade homes. BUT! www.nesta.org.uk/blog/devolvi...
nesta.org.uk
Devolving the Warm Homes Plan to local government makes sense - but the Boiler Upgrade Scheme should stay
Three implications of devolving the Boiler Upgrade Scheme.
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
New blog that I've just published on how we can incorporate evidence strength into AI policy tools: www.nesta.org.uk/blog/five-le...
nesta.org.uk
Five lessons from building evidence-strength scoring into an AI policy tool
To support policy decisions, Policy Atlas needs to help users understand the kind of evidence they are looking at, how much weight to place on it and how much confidence to place in the assessment
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Notebook LM language pulls out the more unclear language/framing sometimes. Amazing to see the difference in clarity between it and ChatGPT.
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
With the advent of Claude Code, my gh contributions have gone exponential.
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Can someone do a live react vid of Sam Altman to this OpenAI roast 🤣 www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBSa...
youtube.com
How can I communicate better with my mom?
YouTube video by Anthropic
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 31/01/2026
He must be nearly seeing the molten core at this stage.
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Yep, definitely. High level system thinking alongside management skills will be at a premium, the actual coding will most likely be done by an agent in the near term. On a day to day basis, you create a bunch of well defined tasks and you get your agent to come check with you intermittently.
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Moltbook..a social media site for AI agents. Apparently released just 48 hours ago, there are AI agents already scheming around having e2e encrypted agent to agent communication away from human oversight (according to this Moltbook post, it's already happening). Welp, it was nice knowing y'all.
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
This might mean a change in the portfolio of code projects, where one might decide to experiment with something new a couple days/month. Likely more failed experiments but also more innovation as well as a more diverse portfolio of work!
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Managers in this case will really have to prioritise what's important. I think potentially one of the benefits of this new found code accelerator will be able to spin up prototypes / test a new method real quick (~1-2 days) that otherwise would've taken weeks.
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
It's now become a choice about what you decide to build, as before we had to ruthlessly prioritise as the barrier was too high for 'nice-to-have' features. This might mean that we start over-engineering products and analyses when potentially a simpler path would've been fruitful.
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Few thoughts on this: It is transforming how coding is being done and has introduced a new way of working. You have some of the most talented coders/engineers using it extensively in their day-to-day workflows (from Linus Torvalds to Andrej Karpathy). Agentic AI coding tool are getting rly good.
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
Honestly, it is scary seeing fascism on the march across many different western countries. There are Portuguese elections today where Ventura (the Farage of Portugal) is likely to reach the runoff showdown. We must resist!
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
I've had a first stab at making a list of GenAI ppl on here but it's proving harder than anticipated! X is still the place to be for that content. Let me know if you're interested in being added or know anyone who would be a good addition😎 bsky.app/profile/did:...
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Gentle intro to on-policy distillation for language models from Thinking Machines. It defines a lot of key terms used in post-training which I found useful. Seems like there is scope using this technique to post-train LMs without need for huge compute. thinkingmachines.ai/blog/on-poli...
thinkingmachines.ai
On-Policy Distillation
On-policy, dense supervision is a useful tool for distillation
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Nice work!
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
Really interesting piece in the FT with Yann LeCun (@yann-lecun.bsky.social). Insights into the dynamics at Meta and how the winds of AI have changed recently. Interested in learning more about the world models he has been working on. www.ft.com/content/e3c4...
ft.com
Computer scientist Yann LeCun: ‘Intelligence really is about learning’
The AI pioneer on stepping down from Meta, the limits of large language models — and the launch of his new start-up
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Sakana AI @sakanaai.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Introducing DroPE: Extending Context by Dropping Positional Embeddings We found embeddings like RoPE aid training but bottleneck long-sequence generalization. Our solution’s simple: treat them as a temporary training scaffold, not a permanent necessity. arxiv.org/abs/2512.12167 pub.sakana.ai/DroPE
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
Listening to the news agent podcast earlier with Mehdi Hasan, and talk of Trump being re-elected in 2020 rather than 2024 may have been the lesser of two evils. On the surface, it seems relatively convincing.
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
Really interesting piece in the FT with Yann LeCun (@yann-lecun.bsky.social). Insights into the dynamics at Meta and how the winds of AI have changed recently. Interested in learning more about the world models he has been working on. www.ft.com/content/e3c4...
ft.com
Computer scientist Yann LeCun: ‘Intelligence really is about learning’
The AI pioneer on stepping down from Meta, the limits of large language models — and the launch of his new start-up
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
Watching what's happening over on grok in terms of image manipulation is really quite worrying and a clear violation of privacy. It needs to be regulated with a big stick, however I fear this is only the tip of the iceberg of what's out there on the web.
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Kara @karashiiro.moe · 01/01/2026
There's been a lot of discourse lately about how coding agents have become overwhelming, and that SWEs who don't use them yet just won't be able to catch up. I don't believe this is true, but we do need to know what problems coding agents are solving to approach them with an engineering mindset.
karashiiro.leaflet.pub
Coding Agents Are Easy, Actually
Software engineering is here to stay
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David Aronchick @ironyuppie.com · 29/12/2025
I didn't see enough news about this crazy/cool paper from DeepSeek - you take text, and convert it to imagery, and you get BETTER performance. Oh and some really neat ideas about contextual memory too. www.distributedthoughts.org/a-picture-is...
distributedthoughts.org
A Picture Is Worth Ten Thousand Tokens
DeepSeek's new OCR model achieves 97% accuracy while using one-tenth the tokens by rendering text as images. The computationally "heavy" modality turns out to be the efficient one, which should make u...
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
Can't stop listening to this. Mixture of synth, bass and guitar alongside this genre must have felt like it was from another planet in 1980. www.youtube.com/watch?v=qh-j...
youtube.com
A Forest
YouTube video by The Cure - Topic
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AI & ML News @ai-news.at.thenote.app · 27/12/2025
Exploring TabPFN: A Foundation Model Built for Tabular Data Understanding the architecture, training pipeline and implementing TabPFN in practice Telegram AI Digest #ai #foundationmodel #news
towardsdatascience.com
Exploring TabPFN: A Foundation Model Built for Tabular Data
Understanding the architecture, training pipeline and implementing TabPFN in practice
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 25/12/2025
Trying to understand some code in Rust and it's giving me vietnam style flashbacks to C++
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 25/12/2025
Merry Christmas! 🎄
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 06/12/2025
Thoughtful piece by my current favourite podcaster @dwarkesh.bsky.social on where we're at with AI progress and reflections around intelligence itself: substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com
Thoughts on AI progress (Dec 2025)
Why I'm moderately bearish in the short term, and explosively bullish in the long term
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 15/11/2025
Yann LeCun being let go by Meta might have some unexpected benefits 🍿
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
This may be very old man of me, but I feel like there is something about the bluesky algorithm/my feed that is not sucking me in enough. I know, I know, it's sort of the point but still, I need to have some pull to check out the content and it isn't quite itching that scratch.
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DESIGN THINKING! Comic @designthinking.lol · 20/10/2025
With the AWS outage, now‘s as good a time as any to post this old strip.
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
Link to the article piece: www.nesta.org.uk/feature/miss...
nesta.org.uk
Mission Radar: emerging trends and signals in affordable low-carbon heating
Innovations to improve the affordability of low-carbon heating
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
🏛️ Policy trends: Electricity price reduction is climbing the policy agenda. Recent debate has centred on long-term ways to bring down prices for households and businesses. That’s key to helping heat pumps compete with gas boilers on running costs. (7/7)
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
This combined heat pumps, community energy storage, EV car clubs and solar panels to cut bills and upfront costs. (6/7)
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
🔬 Research funding: UK research has shifted from optimising heat pumps to green finance, mirroring the investment trend. Example: Rossendale Borough Council received over £2 million for a place-based decarbonisation demonstrator in terraced streets. (5/7)
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
IKEA: Meatballs, flat-packs and now heat pumps. The company is now offering heat pumps in several European countries, including the UK since late September, through partnerships with manufacturers such as Aira. (4/7)
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
💡 Venture funding: Finance for low-carbon heating is getting a green light from investors. Global investment in 2025 rose sharply for businesses offering loans and financial products to support uptake. (3/7)
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
In this edition, we looked at innovations to make low-carbon heating more affordable, a key barrier in our mission to decarbonise home heating in the UK. (2/7)
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
Happy to share my first piece of analysis work with the Discovery team at @nestauk.bsky.social on 𝗠𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗿! The Mission Radar is a briefing series on innovation signals and emerging trends in Nesta’s missions. We use AI to scan for innovation across business, academia and policy. (1/7)
Mission Radar chart (a type of bubble chart) for Nesta's "A sustainable future" mission, updated Q2 2025.

The radar is divided into four quadrants representing categories of innovation: "Ventures and investments" (top right), "Research funding" (bottom right), "Policy" (bottom left), and an unlabeled top-left quadrant (representing trends that are not primarily investment, funding, or policy). A dashed vertical line separates signals in the "Policy" and unlabeled quadrant from those in "Ventures and investments" and "Research funding."

Blips are positioned based on time to expected impact, from the center outwards: "0-2 years," "3-5 years," and "5+ years."

Blip size indicates potential impact on home decarbonisation, with larger blips signifying greater expected impact and smaller blips signifying smaller or more niche impact.

Main Trends and Findings (Blips):

Venture and Investment (High Impact, Short/Medium Term):
Ikea heat pumps (Small, 0-2 years)
Digital platform for local installers (Medium, 0-2 years)
Energy-as-a-service (Small, 0-2 years)
Retail investment in green finance ventures (Medium, 3-5 years)
Research Funding (Medium Impact, Short/Medium Term):
Turbo air-source heat pump (Medium, 0-2 years)
Net zero terrace streets (Medium, 3-5 years)
Community operated energy infrastructure (Small, 3-5 years)
Policy (Medium/High Impact, Short Term):
Increased government publications on electricity prices (Medium, 0-2 years)
Increased references to electricity prices in debates (Small, 0-2 years)
Top-Left Quadrant (High Impact, Medium Term):
One large, dark blip is visible in the 3-5 years range.
Source: Nesta's analysis of innovation trends. Companies and research projects included are those identified in Q2 2025. Blip size and positioning determined by expert judgement.
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 19/10/2025
What a really interesting conversation between two of my favourite people in AI in the form of @karpathy.bsky.social and @dwarkesh.bsky.social. I wish more ppl in this space took the same approach in terms of being open to debate, challenge and overall being humble. www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXUZ...
youtube.com
Andrej Karpathy — “We’re summoning ghosts, not building animals”
YouTube video by Dwarkesh Patel
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 05/10/2025
The author doesn't really address the wider implications of deterministic LLMs, but can imagine the reproducibility of outputs could be very powerful in terms of trust. Link to the blog: thinkingmachines.ai/blog/defeati... (6/6)
thinkingmachines.ai
Defeating Nondeterminism in LLM Inference
Reproducibility is a bedrock of scientific progress. However, it’s remarkably difficult to get reproducible results out of large language models. For example, you might observe that asking ChatGPT the...
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 05/10/2025
Used ChatGPT in study and think mode as well as prompting it to use socratic questioning to really improve my understanding of this area. (5/6)
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 05/10/2025
They've managed to create deterministic LLMs at inference time with some penalties for efficiency, but the results are pretty cool. I found their blog quite a long read, as I had little familiarity around the intricacies of these calculations and how they relate to GPUs. (4/6)
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 05/10/2025
However there are different strategies to get around this, e.g. running sums over single cores in a GPU. This is what 'Thinking Machines' have been doing with implementing batch-invariant calculations for LLMs. (3/6)
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 05/10/2025
This is caused by something called floating point non-associativity. In Maths, we can do (a+b)+c =a+(b+c) but this is not the case when doing calculations in computers, the order matters. (2/6)
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 05/10/2025
So theoretically LLMs can be deterministic if we set their temperature to zero, but in practice they aren't. This comes down to how we do calculations such as matrix multiplication at inference time. It turns out the order you do these calculations in does matter. (1/6)
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
Does anyone have cool (or boring) agentic use-cases that they've read about or used? Doing some horizon scanning work to see what's out there but thought my bluesky network might have ideas!
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
That's what we are building with Nesta's Policy Atlas tool! Read about our alpha tool user testing and what's next for the project, here: www.nesta.org.uk/project-upda... (2/2)
nesta.org.uk
Harnessing AI to positively disrupt policymaking
Lessons learned from our user research
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Aidan Kelly @helloaidank.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
What if there was an AI-powered tool that allowed policymakers to rapidly identify the most effective policies to tackle any given social challenge, based on the latest evidence? (1/2)
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