Sign in

Philipp Heimberger

@heimbergecon.bsky.social
2.9K followers 134 following 993 posts

Senior Economist, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies; macroeconomics, economic policy, public finance, political economy, meta-science.

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Philipp Heimberger
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 18h
🇫🇷 government bonds serve as collateral in repo markets, where banks and other financial institutions obtain short-term funding using government bonds as collateral. French government bonds account for 10% of collateral in Europe's €13.7 trillion repo market.
194
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 18h
Source: www.icmagroup.org/assets/docum...
icmagroup.org
020
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 18h
🇫🇷 government bonds serve as collateral in repo markets, where banks and other financial institutions obtain short-term funding using government bonds as collateral. French government bonds account for 10% of collateral in Europe's €13.7 trillion repo market.
194
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Source: economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/dow...
economy-finance.ec.europa.eu
000
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
€zone countries with the most restrictive fiscal policy stance in 2026 (i.e. fiscal consolidation) according to the EU Commission: France, Belgium, Slovakia, Luxembourg, Austria. RRF-financed expenditure contributes to more expansionary stances, but this will end after 2026.
1114
Reposted by Philipp Heimberger
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
We have a new paper with evidence that fiscal consolidation leads to sizable and persistent declines in public investment in advanced economies; reductions in government consumption are smaller. Real spending on health, education, social protection, environmental protection falls to varying degrees.
12814
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
We use data for 16 advanced economies over the 1995-2020 period and an IV local projections approach. We show that the dampening effects of fiscal consolidation across spending categories depend on the macro-fiscal and political environment. Paper: wiiw.ac.at/uneven-cuts-...
1134
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
We have a new paper with evidence that fiscal consolidation leads to sizable and persistent declines in public investment in advanced economies; reductions in government consumption are smaller. Real spending on health, education, social protection, environmental protection falls to varying degrees.
12814
Reposted by Philipp Heimberger
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Experimental evidence suggests AI advice can make people much less accurate yet much more confident: “I don’t know” responses fall from 44% to 3%, accuracy from 27% to 9%, while confidence rises from 30/100 to 76/100.
164
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Paper: osf.io/preprints/ps...
osf.io
AI advice suppresses people’s willingness to say “I don’t know”, even when the advice is wrong and accuracy is incentivized
Knowing when to say “I don’t know” is fundamental to human judgment, yet AI assistants offer a fluent answer to almost any question. In five experiments (N = 3,132; four preregistered, one direct repl...
000
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Experimental evidence suggests AI advice can make people much less accurate yet much more confident: “I don’t know” responses fall from 44% to 3%, accuracy from 27% to 9%, while confidence rises from 30/100 to 76/100.
164
Reposted by Philipp Heimberger
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Very interesting project: Living Science uses an AI agent to reproduce key findings from seminal papers in economics, document what holds up and extend the analysis with newer data. It's like a follow-up paper with robustness checks and extensions. New paper every week.
1176
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The first Living Science reports analyse and extend well-known papers on the earnings and employment effects of minimum wages, job findings and unemployment fluctuations, and migration responses to job losses. livingscience.ai
livingscience.ai
Living Science: influential research, kept alive
A living knowledge base of influential research in economics and AI safety. Each paper is replicated from its original materials, re-estimated on the newest data and models, and kept up to date as the...
051
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Very interesting project: Living Science uses an AI agent to reproduce key findings from seminal papers in economics, document what holds up and extend the analysis with newer data. It's like a follow-up paper with robustness checks and extensions. New paper every week.
1176
Reposted by Philipp Heimberger
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Military spending in OECD countries has increased strongly. In more than two thirds of all OECD countries, military spending has been rising faster than GDP.
184
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Source: www.oecd.org/en/publicati...
oecd.org
The fiscal and economic impacts of higher defence spending: OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2026 Issue 1
The evolving conflict in the Middle East is having significant humanitarian costs and testing the resilience of a global economy boosted by with solid underlying strong AI-related activity. The prices...
021
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Military spending in OECD countries has increased strongly. In more than two thirds of all OECD countries, military spending has been rising faster than GDP.
184
Reposted by Philipp Heimberger
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Interesting new QJE paper shows inflation gets more attention when people are more exposed to it and when they have past inflation experiences. Those with inflation top of mind follow more inflation news, raise inflation expectations more; firms are more likely to raise prices.
2158
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Paper (open-access): academic.oup.com/qje/advance-...
academic.oup.com
Validate User
020
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Interesting new QJE paper shows inflation gets more attention when people are more exposed to it and when they have past inflation experiences. Those with inflation top of mind follow more inflation news, raise inflation expectations more; firms are more likely to raise prices.
2158
Reposted by Philipp Heimberger
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Interesting QJE paper on fairness views of 65,000 individuals in 60 countries covering 85% of world population and 88% of global GDP. Meritocratic views more prominent in richer Western societies. Econ development and cultural factors account for ~80% of cross-country variation.
1115
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Paper (open-access): academic.oup.com/qje/advance-...
academic.oup.com
Fairness Across the World*
Abstract. This paper provides the first comprehensive global evidence on people’s fairness and efficiency preferences, beliefs about the sources of inequal
031
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Interesting QJE paper on fairness views of 65,000 individuals in 60 countries covering 85% of world population and 88% of global GDP. Meritocratic views more prominent in richer Western societies. Econ development and cultural factors account for ~80% of cross-country variation.
1115
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Paper (open-access): academic.oup.com/qje/advance-...
academic.oup.com
Fairness Across the World*
Abstract. This paper provides the first comprehensive global evidence on people’s fairness and efficiency preferences, beliefs about the sources of inequal
000
Reposted by Philipp Heimberger
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I was in Brussels to present our study on the future financing of the EU budget in the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC).
172
Reposted by Philipp Heimberger
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Video recording of the event (my contribution starts at 1:16:30): www.eesc.europa.eu/en/agenda/ou... Text version: wiiw.ac.at/funding-euro... Full study: wiiw.ac.at/the-future-f...
043
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Video recording of the event (my contribution starts at 1:16:30): www.eesc.europa.eu/en/agenda/ou... Text version: wiiw.ac.at/funding-euro... Full study: wiiw.ac.at/the-future-f...
043
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I was in Brussels to present our study on the future financing of the EU budget in the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC).
172
Reposted by Philipp Heimberger
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
We have a new study on the macro and fiscal implications of structurally higher defence spending in the EU (requested by the ECON committee of the European Parliament). We assess the National Escape Clause and quantify fiscal consolidation pressures from higher defence spending 🧵
2127
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Link to the study (joint with Meryem Gökten and Juliane Unger): www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etud... @wiiw.ac.at
020
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The EU fiscal framework would have to be adapted to provide a credible long-term response to structurally higher defence expenditure. European Parliament scrutiny of the NEC and its post-2028 implications should be strengthened.
121
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Strengthening European coordination and common financing could help reduce procurement costs, limit borrowing-cost disparities and enhance overall macroeconomic gains.
130
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Implementing current commitments to structurally increase military spending would be difficult to reconcile with the EU fiscal framework’s core objective of placing public debt ratios on a plausibly declining trajectory.
120
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Upward pressures on public debt will be stronger unless policymakers organise the military build-up in ways that enhance its growth effects and contain increases in sovereign borrowing costs.
120
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Financing higher defence expenditure through tax increases or cuts to other public spending once the NEC expires could weaken economic activity and trigger political opposition, thereby raising the risk of instability.
141
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
We argue that favourable macroeconomic effects of higher defence spending in the EU are likely to be modest at best, owing to substantial import leakages, fragmented procurement and a low share of investment expenditure.
151
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
To assess the effects of higher defence expenditure on macroeconomic and fiscal outcomes, we review the relevant literature, focusing on short- and long-run output effects, inflationary pressures and sovereign borrowing costs.
110
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Our simulations suggest that the expiry of the NEC creates fiscal adjustment requirements under higher defence spending, including in high-debt member states already facing substantial consolidation pressures.
110
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
We use a replication of the Commission's DSA framework to quantify the fiscal adjustment pressures that may emerge after the NEC expires as member states seek to place their public debt ratios on plausibly downward trajectories in line with EU fiscal rules.
110
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
By allowing additional military expenditure within specified limits to be temporarily excluded from fiscal adjustment requirements, the National Escape Clause (NEC) reduces the need for offsetting tax increases or expenditure cuts during 2025–2028.
110
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
We have a new study on the macro and fiscal implications of structurally higher defence spending in the EU (requested by the ECON committee of the European Parliament). We assess the National Escape Clause and quantify fiscal consolidation pressures from higher defence spending 🧵
2127
Reposted by Philipp Heimberger
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
The dominant econometric framework misses that researchers do not mechanically apply methods, but make subjective choices. “Humans in the loop”: IV estimates can remain strongly biased even with first-stage F=200; standard errors can overstate precision. New JEL paper:
133
Reposted by Philipp Heimberger
Markus Marterbauer @markusmarterbauer.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Was kann Europa tun, um sich vor einer aus den USA kommenden Finanzkrise zu schützen? Die Schaffung einer sicheren, liquiden Euro-Anleihe, eines "Safe Asset", so argumentiert @andrewwatteu.bsky.social, General Director @etui.bsky.social www.socialeurope.eu/americas-fis...
socialeurope.eu
America’s Fiscal Crisis Is Europe’s Chance to Build a Treasury Market of Its Own
The EU should seize the moment to gain strategic autonomy by creating its own safe asset.
1318550
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
JEL paper: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=... Free-access version: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
aeaweb.org
Humans in the Loop: The Next Frontier in the Credibility Revolution
(September 2026) - Something is amiss in empirical economics. Despite the advances of the credibility revolution, published estimates tend to be inflated and overconfident. We argue that this stems fr...
010
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
The dominant econometric framework misses that researchers do not mechanically apply methods, but make subjective choices. “Humans in the loop”: IV estimates can remain strongly biased even with first-stage F=200; standard errors can overstate precision. New JEL paper:
133
Reposted by Philipp Heimberger
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Wie könnte ein starkes EU-Budget durch neue Einnahmequellen (z.B. Besteuerung von Krypto, digitalen Dienstleistungen und ultra-höhen Vermögen) finanziert werden? Wir haben zentrale Erkenntnisse aus unserer Studie zusammengefasst, wie sich Druck auf steigende nationale Beiträge reduzieren ließe.
1117
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Blog @aundw.bsky.social : www.awblog.at/Europa/EU-Bu... ÖGfE Policy-Brief: www.oegfe.at/policy-brief...
awblog.at
Ein starkes EU-Budget durch neue Einnahmequellen finanzieren
Die Ausgabenbedarfe für das EU-Budget 2028–2034 sind gestiegen. Es braucht insbesondere mehr Investitionen in den sozialen und ökologischen Umbau. Dabei ist es aber wichtig, aus der problematischen De...
120
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Wie könnte ein starkes EU-Budget durch neue Einnahmequellen (z.B. Besteuerung von Krypto, digitalen Dienstleistungen und ultra-höhen Vermögen) finanziert werden? Wir haben zentrale Erkenntnisse aus unserer Studie zusammengefasst, wie sich Druck auf steigende nationale Beiträge reduzieren ließe.
1117
Reposted by Philipp Heimberger
A&W Blog @aundw.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Bernhard Schütz und @heimbergecon.bsky.social vom @wiiw.ac.at haben sich Optionen für den Ausbau echter EU-Eigenmittel angesehen. Denn: Bis Ende 2026 soll es eine Einigung für das EU-Budget 2028-2034 geben - und die Finanzierungsarchitektur steht seit Längerem in der Kritik.
awblog.at
Ein starkes EU-Budget durch neue Einnahmequellen finanzieren
Die Ausgabenbedarfe für das EU-Budget 2028–2034 sind gestiegen. Es braucht insbesondere mehr Investitionen in den sozialen und ökologischen Umbau. Dabei ist es aber wichtig, aus der problematischen De...
165
Reposted by Philipp Heimberger
ÖGfE @oegfe.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Ein starkes EU-Budget durch neue Einnahmequellen finanzieren Der neue Policy Brief von Philipp Heimberger und Bernhard Schütz untersucht, wie neue europäische Einnahmequellen den EU-Haushalt breiter aufstellen und die Abhängigkeit von nationalen Beiträgen verringern könnten. 🔗 tinyurl.com/kyzszwnk
132