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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Apply by 6-Feb: NBER Innovation Research Boot Camp, July 11-17 With support from Open Philanthropy: - classes: Pierre Azoulay, Kevin Bryan, Ina Ganguli, Ben Jones, Chad Jones, Kyle Myers, and me - panel: Matt Clancy, Dylan Matthews, Caleb Watney - keynotes: Glenn Hubbard & Ronnie Chatterji

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

On Tuesday 1/21 at AEI, hear about infrastructure permitting from: - Michael Strain - James Coleman, Thomas Hochman, Brian Potter, and Alec Stapp on policy options, and - Joe Kile, Eric Lewis, Zach Liscow, and me on the economic effects of changes in permitting www.aei.org/events/how-w...

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

Re-posting this call for applications targeting PhD students and early career researchers (PhDs 2014 or later) doing research on the fiscal and economic effects of three productivity policies: R&D, permitting, and immigration. Applications due at midnight on Thurs January 16.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

Can we improve how we identify and develop mathematical talent among youth? This PhD fellowship program is accepting applications for a second cohort! Deadline to apply is midnight on Monday, January 5, 2025. Details available here: www.nber.org/career-resou...

nber.org

Doctoral Dissertation Fellowship Support Identifying and Developing Mathematical Talent among Youth

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

(5) Students will be assigned a mentor from the agency, as well as an academic faculty mentor (who agrees to meet with the fellow at least quarterly).

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

(4) The fellowship will follow the budget for similar NBER fellowships: $34k stipend, up to $13k tuition, and a small amount of additional research support.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

(3) Eligibility for non-US citizens would be specific to each agency. CBO eligibility has no nationality restriction.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

(2) Administratively, applicants must be enrolled as full-time Ph.D. students at a U.S. or Canadian university and must have advanced to dissertation candidacy status by the start of the fellowship period.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

Details about the program here: 9eqnmuz49ro.typeform.com/to/oK9iPwRV Summary of a few logistical details: (1) These fellowships are residential at the relevant agency, with students adhering to the same in-person work expectations as agency staff.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

I am very grateful to Doug Elmendorf (Harvard Kennedy School), Ted Gayer (Niskanen Center), Zach Liscow (Yale Law), and Donald Marron (Urban Institute) for agreeing to serve with me on the selection committee for these fellowships.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

Deadline to apply is midnight EST on Thursday 30 January 2025. This program is possible thanks to generous financial support from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Analysis Group, and an anonymous donor.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

Personally, I would have found the opportunity to do rigorous, non-partisan economic policy research at one of these agencies, on topics currently of interest to Congress, invaluable for discovering policy-relevant research ideas.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

This fellowship provides funding for PhD students in economics and economics-adjacent fields (public policy, health policy) to spend a year in CBO’s dissertation fellows program, or in analogous positions at CRS and MedPAC.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

Recently, CBO, CRS, and MedPAC have identified opportunities for PhD students to collaborate on non-partisan economic policy research. CBO’s (unfunded) dissertation fellows program is one example: phg.tbe.taleo.net/phg03/ats/ca...

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

Each year, the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) hosts PhD students as staff economists (a great opportunity!). But PhD students have not traditionally had similar opportunities at the Congressional support agencies.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

I’m excited to share a funded year-long PhD student fellowship, combining non-partisan economic policy research & public service at: - Congressional Budget Office - Congressional Research Service - Medicare Payment Advisory Commission Deadline is Thursday 30 January 2025

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

I hope this investment will expand the base of research available to support the work of federal agencies like CBO in providing non-partisan information to Congress and the public on the expected effects of policy changes on the federal budget and the US economy.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

I am very grateful to the Sloan Foundation and the NBER for supporting this effort to expand research on the fiscal and economic effects of innovation and productivity policies, as well as the number of researchers working on this topic.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

Applications will be reviewed by Katharine Abraham (Maryland), Tim Bresnahan (Stanford), Michael Clemens (George Mason), Susan Helper (Case Western Reserve), Glenn Hubbard (Columbia), Zach Liscow (Yale), Kim Rueben (National Tax Association), Madeline Zavodny (U-North Florida), and me.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

Applications are due 11:59 pm (ET) on Thursday, January 16, 2025, and will be announced by March. Applications can be submitted via a JOE link that will be posted soon on this website: www.nber.org/graduate-fel...

nber.org

Graduate Fellowships on Fiscal and Economic Effects of Innovation and Productivity Policies

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

3/ An invitation and financial support to participate in a workshop in Washington DC – likely in summer 2026 – that will include staff from various federal agencies.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

2/ Assignment of a faculty mentor with expertise in this research field. The mentor will supplement the advising resources available to students at their home institutions.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

The program is designed to provide both the dissertation fellows and the non-funded fellows with: 1/ Connection to a group of peers with similar research interests to build a network of potential collaborators.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

As many as six additional early-career researchers – researchers who received their Ph.Ds. in 2014 or later, or are current PhD students -- may be selected for unfunded non-resident fellowships.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

Up to six non-resident dissertation fellowships for the 2025-2026 academic year are open to PhD students in economics and economics-adjacent fields such as public policy at US and Canadian universities. Fellows will receive a $34,000 stipend and up to $13,000 in tuition.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

Fellows may study any aspect of innovation and productivity policies, but the focus is on three areas – R&D, immigration, and infrastructure permitting – highlighted by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in this recent paper: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

aeaweb.org

How Economists Could Help Inform Economic and Budget Analysis Used by the US Congress

(Spring 2024) - The US Congress uses economic and budgetary projections, cost estimates for proposed legislation, and other analyses provided by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) as part of its le...

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

Attention: PhD students and early-career researchers interested in the fiscal and economic effects of productivity policies -- particularly R&D, immigration, and infrastructure permitting. Consider applying to this Sloan Foundation NBER fellowship: www.nber.org/graduate-fel...

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 22/01/2024

A small correction for CBO history buffs... We revised this piece to note that CBO applied the population-change approach to Senate Amendment 1150 to S. 1348 as well. Grateful to Donald Marron for discussions that highlighted this unintentional omission.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 18/01/2024

We are also grateful to several staff of the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation, as well as Doug Holtz-Eakin and Donald Marron, for technical feedback on this work.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 18/01/2024

Doug and I are very grateful to Alex Arnon and Kent Smetters for making possible this collaboration with the Penn Wharton Budget Model team.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 18/01/2024

The budget estimates presented in this policy brief show that conventional and population-change approaches can result in sharply divergent estimates of the federal budgetary impact of at least some immigration-related legislative proposals.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 18/01/2024

Our goal in undertaking this work is to provide additional information to CBO and JCT, to Congress and the relevant Congressional committees, and to the public about the implications of the choice of estimation approach for legislative proposals addressing immigration.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 18/01/2024

Over the following decade, the difference is even larger – changing from a $74 billion increase in the federal budget deficit under the conventional approach to a $634 billion decrease under the population-change approach.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 18/01/2024

The difference between these two approaches is stark, changing from an increase in the federal budget deficit by $4 billion under the conventional approach, to a net decrease in the federal budget deficit of $129 billion under the population-change approach, from 2025 to 2034.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 18/01/2024

Following the population-change approach, PWBM analysts estimate that a proposal similar to Section 80303 in H.R. 4521 would, on net, decrease the federal budget deficit by $129 billion from 2025 to 2034.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 18/01/2024

Under such a population-change approach, immigration proposals similar to Section 80303 in H.R. 4521 have been estimated by CBO and PWBM to decrease federal budget deficits, reflecting increased collections of individual income taxes and payroll taxes. www.cbo.gov/publication/...

cbo.gov

H.R. 2131, Supplying Knowledge-based Immigrants and Lifting Levels of STEM Visas Act (SKILLS Visa Ac...

As ordered reported by the House Committee on the Judiciary on June 27, 2013

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 18/01/2024

CBO and JCT have applied this population-change approach to three legislative proposals—H.R. 2131, S. 744, and S. 2611—but it has not been applied to any proposals since 2014. www.cbo.gov/publication/... www.cbo.gov/publication/... www.cbo.gov/publication/... / www.cbo.gov/publication/...

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 18/01/2024

An alternative approach that incorporates projected changes in population – and incorporates all of the direct budgetary effects of changing the number of people in the US – thus provides a more accurate estimate of the budgetary effects of changes in immigration policy.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 18/01/2024

However, in contrast with the assumptions of the conventional approach, many legislative proposals to change immigration policies would in fact change the number of workers as a direct consequence and fundamental objective of the legislation.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 18/01/2024

On a conventional basis, immigration proposals similar to Section 80303 in H.R. 4521 have been estimated by CBO and by PWBM to increase federal spending and federal budget deficits, primarily due to greater spending on Affordable Care Act subsidies. www.cbo.gov/publication/...

cbo.gov

Estimated Budgetary Effects of H.R. 4521, the America COMPETES Act of 2022

As Passed by the House of Representatives on February 4, 2022

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 18/01/2024

Standard (“conventional”) budget estimation methods assume legislative proposals will not change the number of workers in the economy, because such changes would affect GDP, which is assumed to remain unchanged.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 18/01/2024

When Congress wants to know how much a policy change would affect the federal budget, they ask the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) for a budget estimate.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 18/01/2024

Legislative provisions like Section 80303, H.R. 4521 have proposed to exempt employment-based green cards from statutory limits for applicants (and their families) who have earned a doctoral or master’s degree in a STEM field.

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 18/01/2024

How do changes in immigration policy affect the federal budget? At least for STEM advanced degree green cards (e.g. Section 80303, H.R. 4521), different approaches can result in sharply divergent estimates. From Doug Elmendorf and I w/ the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM)

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Heidi L. Williams @heidiwilliams.bsky.social · 17/01/2024

(5) Students will be assigned a mentor from the agency, as well as an academic faculty mentor (who agrees to meet with the fellow at least quarterly).

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