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Harold Tobin

@haroldtobin.bsky.social
4.1K followers 266 following 194 posts

UW prof and director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. WA State Seismologist. All about subduction zones and very messed up rocks.

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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Back from a 5 day backpacking-as-field-work venture into the Olympic mountains interior. We covered 45 miles on the Skyline Ridge trail and back, with 16,000 feet of total vertical in 5 days. All to recon another swath of deeply subducted rocks from the paleo-seismogenic zone. Subduction rocks! ⚒️
Two geologists hiking along steep bare hillside seen from behind, with distant moountain ridge and blue sky.  Close up shot of rock outcrop of severely deformed meta-sedimentary rocks with a block-in-matrix melange fabric. Pencil shown for scale. Geologist standing at dusk against a rocky landscape, brushing their teeth with a headlamp on. Person stands on rocky knob against blue skyline with Mt. Olympus (Washington) in background.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
I did an interview for NPR News today, in good company with Bill Barnhart of USGS: one.npr.org/i/nx-s1-5929...
one.npr.org
🔊 Listen Now: Colombia and Venezuela earthquakes: What made them so different?
All Things Considered on NPR One | 3:17
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Pacific Northwest Seismic Network @pnsn1.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
PRELIM Earthquake: M3.8, 21.5 km NNE from Port Townsend, WA at 2026/07/01 23:35 PDT www.pnsn.org/event/714040221 Did You Feel It?: zpr.io/Ykx3uAUHQ9X5
Map with a star marker for the magnitude 3.821 earthquake located 21.5 km NNE from Port Townsend, WA
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
An explanatory article from @evanbush.bsky.social at NBC News about the Venezuela earthquake(s). www.nbcnews.com/science/eart... ⚒️
Screenshot of text from the article reading: “Tobin said scientists are still weighing whether Wednesday’s sequence was indeed a doublet, though the USGS described it as such.

“It’s actually a subject of lots of discussion right now among seismologists about whether to call it two earthquakes or one earthquake with multiple phases or pulses of energy,” Tobin said, adding that the debate was a little semantic.”
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Dr Robin George Andrews @squigglyvolcano.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
NEW: Yesterday, a rare catastrophe struck Venezuela when a magnitude 7.2 and a magnitude 7.5 quake hit the same region *within less than a minute*. For the @nytimes.com, I asked scientists how this happened, why they were so devastating, and what might happen next. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/25/s...
nytimes.com
Why the Venezuelan Earthquakes Happened, and What to Expect Next
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Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
With a number of folks from #eqsky weighing in, including @brandontbishop.bsky.social @haroldtobin.bsky.social @seismo-steve.bsky.social 🎁 link: Why the Venezuelan Earthquakes Happened, and What to Expect Next www.nytimes.com/2026/06/25/s...
nytimes.com
Why the Venezuelan Earthquakes Happened, and What to Expect Next
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
So many newly-minted Geo-Doctors from University of Washington ESS Department for 2026! There are at least 2 more not in the pic. This is a really talented and fun bunch who are going on to great things. I’m going to miss them!! ⚒️
10 new PhDs in full purple and gold academic regalia standing in front of the fountain at University of Washington.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
The NYTimes article about NSF dismantling the OOI system wasn't clear about what is actually happening. Yes, it's a really bad move for oceanography, but the part of OOI that monitors the Cascadia subduction zone is NOT being descoped. I went on KING5 News to discuss. youtu.be/NkTk60rxHVs?...
youtu.be
The 'bright spot' of ocean observatory cuts is earthquake monitoring remains in place
YouTube video by KING 5 Seattle
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Eos @eos.org · 14/04/2026
A massive rupture on the Seattle fault, which runs right under the Seattle metro area, could threaten millions and cause billions of dollars of damage. But it’s not just the biggest quakes scientists are concerned about. 🧪 eos.org/articles/on-...
eos.org
On the Seattle Fault, the Biggest Quakes Aren’t the Most Likely - Eos
Smaller quakes from secondary faults—which are not included in national seismic hazard modeling—occur more frequently than previously thought.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Since around midnight PDT, there's been quite an active swarm of earthquakes at the Juan de Fuca Ridge, about 250 miles offshore WA. With 18 detected so far, up to M4.2, locations show that these are NOT at the Axial Seamount Volcano. They do not pose a hazard to the PNW onshore. ⚒️
A map of the Juan de Fuca plate region of the Pacific Ocean, with the coast of BC, WA, and OR on the right. 18 orange dots show the locations of earthquakes on April 12, 2026, all in the spreading ridge vicinity. Black lines show the plate boundaries, including the JdF ridge, the Cascadia subduction zone, and the Blanco Transform Fault.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
Excellent article today in the NYTimes about the need for tsunami evacuation structures in the PNW.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Finally a convincing explanation for the existence of blueschist and eclogite belts. ⚒️
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Magnitude 6.3 thrust earthquake in the Atacama area of central Chile this morning. This is in the area of a 1922 M8.4. Most subduction quakes are not foreshocks, but chances of a larger event in the short term are now a bit higher, statistically speaking. 👀 ⚒️ earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/...
Satellite image based map of central to northern Chile and Peru, with epicenter shown just offshore at 28.6 S latitude. Taken from USGS event page linked in the post. Map of Chile with rupture areas and dates of numerous large and great subduction earthquakes marked as red ovals. Quakes are labeled with dates and magnitudes. Source is Matt Pritchard (Cornell) via Jay Payton’s earthjay website.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
15 years ago right about this time of day, the Tohoku-oki earthquake was unleashed, with as much as 100 meters of fault slip documented at the Japan Trench. The resulting tsunami rocked Japan and the world, claiming ~18,000 lives. It was one of only 5 M9 quakes ever recorded. ⚒️
March 11, 2011 tsunami washing ashore on the Sendai coastal plain, sweeping into a coastal village. I visited this spot a few months later in August, 2011.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Ok, journals don't really appear as bound paper magazines anymore, but it's still pretty cool to get the cover image! Anna Ledeczi's paper on our newly identified paleo-megathrust in the heart of Olympic National Park is now formally out. Read it here: ⚒️ pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulle...
Cover of the March-April 2026 issue of the Geological Society of America  Bulletin, including a full-cover photograph of a wide-view scene of bare rock and snow, with a geologist at work highlighted by low-angle sun. Photo is from summer of 2024 field work at the Lakes of the Gods, Olympic National Park.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Did you know that the Feb. 28, 2001 Nisqually earthquake was the costliest quake in the past 30 years of US history? On its 25th anniversary, the Puget Sound region isn't prepared for the inevitable next one. Here's my take for the @seattletimes-rss.bsky.social www.seattletimes.com/opinion/befo...
seattletimes.com
Before the next earthquake hits WA, we need to fix our bricks | Op-Ed
An earthquake like the 2001 Nisqually quake will strike again, and it could be more damaging. What is certain is that we can make structures safer.
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Pacific Northwest Seismic Network @pnsn1.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
25 years ago, PNSN seismologists rolled into action to respond to the M6.8 Nisqually earthquake. Join us on Feb 24, 6:30-8 PM for a discussion and Q&A with earthquake experts on what we’ve learned since—and what we need to do to get ready for the next one: www.eventbrite.com/e/25-years-s...
Scan of the front page of The Daily from March 1st, 2001, showing a photo of PNSN seismologists under a headline reading 'Seattle shakes, seismologists roll into action.'
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Pacific Northwest Seismic Network @pnsn1.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
SEAHAWKS ARE GOING TO SUPER BOWL LX!!!! Seattle Seahawks beat the LA Rams, 31 - 27! Hopefully you got to follow along and catch each incredible play of this nail-biting game in real time, but if not then find the whole-game archive at: pnsn.org/data-researc...
A banner reads "Seahawks Win!!!" above a seismogram showing the shaking caused by fans during the NFC Championship game between the Seattle Seahawks and the LA Rams at Lumen Field.
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Pacific Northwest Seismic Network @pnsn1.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
We're ready for you, 12s! The PNSN's field staff revisited Lumen Field this week to ensure our stations were functioning correctly so we can monitor all of the fan generated energy from today's Seahawks game vs the Rams. Make sure to follow our live seismogram during the game at seahawks.pnsn.org!
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Pacific Northwest Seismic Network @pnsn1.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
Rashid Shaheed got things started right away with an opening kickoff return touchdown, the 12s rocked the house, and the Seahawks never looked back! SEAHAWKS WIN 41-6 and move onto the NFC Championship Game! @seahawks @nfl
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
Follow along with ground motions at Lumen Field as the Pacific NW Seismic Network @pnsn1.bsky.social livestreams our seismometers in and next to Lumen Field! Seahawks up 17-6 late in 2nd qtr. Stream: seahawks.pnsn.org
seahawks.pnsn.org
2026 Seahawks - Seahawks-49ers
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Pacific Northwest Seismic Network @pnsn1.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
TOUCHDOWN SEAHAWKS! Rashid Shaheed returns the opening kickoff for a touchdown! Great start, 12s! @seahawks @nfl @nflonfox
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
It looks like northern Japan coastal ports have seen tsunami waves arriving already, but so far just 30-70 cm high. Later-arriving peaks could be higher, but that is good news that the ultimate size will be moderate. I hope so! Damage reports sketchy so far, but also some reason for optimism.
Screenshot of NHK News TV at 01:22 JST, 8:22 PST. Table on screen shows actual observed tsunami inundation up to 70 cm in coastal ports.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
I love this. @pnsn1.bsky.social
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Pacific Northwest Seismic Network @pnsn1.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Some false reports are circulating that Mt. Rainier is suddenly showing seismic tremor activity — this is not true. The signal being referenced is actually radio interference, most likely due to rime ice buildup on the antenna of one of our seismic stations.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
NOAA cut funding for critical parts of the tsunami and earthquake detection system in Alaska, primarily in the Aleutians. I spoke to Wash Post about negative impacts. But, hey, what are the chances of a deadly tsunami being triggered in Alaska? (Gift article, not behind paywall) ⚒️ wapo.st/4qKvavQ
wapo.st
This lab is key for tracking deadly waves. Its sensors are about to go offline.
After NOAA cut funding to the lab that’s been monitoring seismic activity for more than 25 years, nine stations tracking tsunami-causing earthquakes for the agency will go offline by the end of the mo...
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
This visualization of Japan’s M6.8 yesterday is phenomenal. Offshore S-net detected it and issued earthquake alert before any land station detection. Numbered circles show JMA intensity (not same as MMI). Offshore is where we need to be in Cascadia as well.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
Today's Japan M6.8 is in an interesting spot: the zone of "missing" slip just north of the very large shallow rupture in the 2011 M9.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
Quoted supporting our counterparts and friends at the Alaska Earthquake Center. The cost of the U.S. tsunami warning and mitigation effort is really a pittance. None of it has ever been adequately funded in any administration, and now things are worse. ⚒️ www.nbcnews.com/science/tsun...
nbcnews.com
U.S. tsunami warning system, reeling from funding and staffing cuts, is dealt another blow
Seismic monitoring stations in Alaska are closing after a denied federal grant, risking delayed tsunami warnings for people living on the West Coast.
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Pacific Northwest Seismic Network @pnsn1.bsky.social · 18/10/2025
Geno Suarez hits a Grand Slam to put the Mariners up 6-2 and seal Game 5 of the ALCS! "The City is Shaking!" #SeizeTheMoment
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Pacific Northwest Seismic Network @pnsn1.bsky.social · 11/10/2025
You feel that Seattle?! Check out that Polanco P-Wave! Polanco Game Winning Single, Crawford Scores, MARINERS WIN!! @Mariners are Toronto Bound! @Tmobilepark @FoxSports #SeisTheMoment #SeizeTheMoment
Seismogram showing ground motion at T-Mobile Park for game-winning single by Seattle Mariner Jorge Polanco, JP Crawford scores! MLB poster for PostSEAson 2025 that reads Seis the Moment with a small seismogram between the Seis and the The.  Has website for PNSN seismograms of the game. mariners.pnsn.org
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Pacific Northwest Seismic Network @pnsn1.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
Dubs is ready to #ShakeOut... Are you? We’re just ONE WEEK away from the Great ShakeOut earthquake drill on October 16! Join Dubs in practicing Drop, Cover, and Hold On. Register your participation and explore all the ways you can boost awareness for this event at shakeout.org.
Image with Dubs the Husky and PNSN Team Member doing a drop cover and hold on drill. Text about ShakeOut noting date (October 16, 2025) and link (shakeout.org). Bottom part of image shows cartoon Drop, Cover, Hold On panels.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Interesting study! And this animation blending the model with the observed SWOT image is gorgeous.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 28/09/2025
Tsunami evacuation systems in Kochi City and Kure town, Shikoku Island. The 1946 Nankai Trough earthquake and tsunami swept ashore here, flooding all these areas - only the most recent of many over the past ~1300 years. The vertical evac towers are really impressive.
Vertical evacuation structure in Kure, where 400 people can get to 28 meters above sea level. View from the tower deck, overlooking the town which could all flood in the next tsunami. View of the town’s other tower, from the first one. In Kochi city, all of downtown would flood. Many regular buildings are fortified and marked as escape structures.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 28/09/2025
Yokonami melange, a paleo-megathrust, and so, so much chert, near Kure, Shikoku Island, Japan
Two geologists pointing out enormous coastal outcrops of steeply-dipping ribbon chert.Closer view of the folded and steeply dipping cherts, with two geologists standing on outcrop.Down-looking view of block-in-matrix melange of scaly mudstones with sandstone blocks.Outcrop photo of brittle fault rocks at the top of the Yokonami melange, with pencil for scale. This has been interpreted as a fossil plate boundary fault zone.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
We recently spent 2 weeks doing field work in a remote part of Olympic National Park, studying what we think is another part of the 'fossil' subduction plate boundary fault: a paleo-megathrust. The terrain was rugged and challenging, and the rocks were rewarding. Here's a taste. ⚒️
Two geologists with hiking gear standing at an overlook, looking at a rocky valley and in the distance, the Geri-freki glacier and surrounding peaks. In Olympic National Park.Close-up photo of a rock outcrop with a compass, showing very well-developed block-in-matrix, melange fabric, including lenses of sandstone in a finer matrix. Geologists stadning on a large outcrop of planar veins cutting through foliated fault rock, with the enormous, partially snow-covered SW face of Mt. Tom in the distance. View of the stupendous and rarely-seen southwest face of Mt. Olympus. There is more than 4000 feet of relief in this image, and multiple cirque glaciers. The disrupted and broken 'ghost stratigraphy' of (metamorphosed) sandstone and mudstone is evident.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
And Steve Malone is still analyzing volcanic earthquakes at PNSN in 2025!
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
This eruption is an interesting … coincidence?? Seismically triggered eruptions are not really my specialty, but I answered the phone on Sunday morning when @npr.org’s @gbrumfiel.bsky.social called, so here you go: Russian volcano erupts days after monster quake shakes www.npr.org/2025/08/03/n...
npr.org
Russian volcano erupts days after monster quake shakes region
The volcano may have been primed to erupt before the magnitude 8.8 quake pushed it over the edge.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 02/08/2025
Here is @noaa.gov's model of the tsunami propagation from the people at PMEL, initiated with the earthquake location and then calibrated by the DART buoy observations. There is a wealth of great information at their website (link in thread). (1/6) ⚒️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOtJ...
youtube.com
Kamchatka Tsunami, July 29, 2025 tsunami propagation
YouTube video by NOAAPMEL
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
Went on CBS Mornings today to talk about the tsunami and how it all unfolded. They had good questions. www.cbsnews.com/video/why-a-...
cbsnews.com
Why a recent earthquake didn't wreak havoc, despite its power
After an 8.8 magnitude earthquake off Russia's coast triggered tsunami alerts as far as the U.S., experts like seismologist Harold Tobin explain why the impact was far less devastating than expected.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
The M8.8 off Kamchatka appears to be the largest earthquake ever recorded that apparently didn't kill anyone. That's really remarkable, if true. ⚒️
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
I am glad @evanbush.bsky.social used this quote in this excellent @nbcnews.com story. This is a key message I really wanted to get across in interviews today. Article here: www.nbcnews.com/science/scie...
Image of quoted text: "Tobin said the successful tsunami warning Tuesday should spur investment in seafloor sensors and seismic monitoring stations offshore along the subduction zone.

“This shows the value and importance of NOAA and the USGS in these times where some of these government agencies have come into question,” he said. “We wouldn’t have had a tsunami warning if it weren’t for NOAA, and the next one could be a closer event. They showed their value.”
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
Wednesday evening, tsunami waves are still sloshing around at Port Angeles, WA ... 18+ hours after they first arrived. Source: @noaa.gov tide gauge website. ⚒️
A graph of the water levels at a tide gauging station in Port Angeles Washington. Blue line shows predicted tide in feet above mean low water; red line shows observed water level. Yuo can clearly see the oscillations of the tsunami from Kamchatka, up to ~2 feet amplitude.
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Dr Robin George Andrews @squigglyvolcano.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
NEW: A magnitude 8.8 megaquake blasted tsunami waves across the Pacific today. Here's everything you need to know about it, including: -Why it happened -Why it generated a widespread tsunami -Why the timing of this megaquake is a bit weird Me, for NatGeo www.nationalgeographic.com/science/arti...
nationalgeographic.com
What caused the 8.8 magnitude quake that sent tsunamis to Hawaii and California
Here's what we know about what caused the earthquake off Russia's Far East and why the tsunami it generated weren't as big as anticipated.
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Andrea Thompson @andreatweather.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Another earthquake story from @sciam.bsky.social by the always-excellent @squigglyvolcano.bsky.social explaining why the tsunami from the Russia quake wasn't as huge as the one from the 2011 Japan quake, for example. 🧪
scientificamerican.com
Why the Russia Earthquake Didn't Cause a Huge Tsunami
Russia's magnitude-8.8 earthquake spawned serious tsunami warnings, but waves have been moderate so far. Here's the geological reason why
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Today's M8.8 (orange circle) and the 1952 M9.0 epicentral locations, separated by only 73 years. I wouldn't have thought that possible! Average recurrence intervals don't tell the full story. ⚒️
map of southern Kamchatka peninsula, with earthquake epicenters plotted offshore Petropavlovsk. Russia.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
This is a VERY large earthquake, possibly/probably among the 10 largest ever recorded. A clear subduction zone megathrust event. And it is another M>8.5 event with a notable foreshock (the recent M7.4 in same location), like Tohoku in 2011.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
I'm excited to announce that we are seeking an External Engagement Lead for the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network! PNSN is the trusted authority on earthquakes and related topics in the PNW. Help us shape earthquake preparedness, advocacy for resilience, and hazards information all across Cascadia.
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Harold Tobin @haroldtobin.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
The 2025 earthquake swarm is now the largest one ever recorded at Mt. Rainier. It exceeds even the 2009 swarm in cumulative magnitude and event number and rate. >340 quakes located by @pnsn1.bsky.social so far, with 1000s more detected. Still not showing signs of unrest. www.usgs.gov/observatorie...
usgs.gov
Monitoring stations detect small magnitude earthquakes at Mount Rainier
An earthquake swarm that started at Mount Rainier on July 8, 2025, is the most significant seismicity at the volcano since 2009.
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