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Nam Nguyen

@harbourfrontquant.substack.com
204 followers 46 following 1K posts

Financial consultant, trader, number cruncher, traveler

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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 1h
Market Timing Using Option-Implied Distribution #finance #trading #investing Option prices contain useful information about the underlying asset. The most well-known quantity that can be extracted from option prices is implied volatility, which can be u…
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Market Timing Using Option-Implied Distribution
Option prices contain useful information about the underlying asset.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 30/09/2026
Using an Autoregressive Model to Predict the Price-to-Earnings Ratio and Develop an Investment Strategy #finance #trading #investing In a previous post, we highlighted an article that showed how useful accounting numbers are. In this post, we will prese…
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Using an Autoregressive Model to Predict the Price-to-Earnings Ratio and Develop an Investment Strategy
In a previous post, we highlighted an article that showed how useful accounting numbers are.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 26/09/2026
The Performance of Subscription-Based Option Recommendations #finance #trading #investing Retail options trading volume has increased significantly, attracting growing attention from both market practitioners and academics. We have previously discussed …
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The Performance of Subscription-Based Option Recommendations
Retail options trading volume has increased significantly, attracting growing attention from both market practitioners and academics.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 23/09/2026
Are Accounting Numbers Useful? #finance #trading #investing Accounting numbers are prevalent in financial reporting, business valuation, and investment management. They’re so frequently used that the practitioners rarely asked pragmatic questions such a…
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Are Accounting Numbers Useful?
Accounting numbers are prevalent in financial reporting, business valuation, and investment management.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 23/09/2026
Correlation, Volatility-of-Volatility, and Sector Implied Volatility #finance #trading #investing Correlation is an important component of portfolio and risk management. However, unlike volatility, which has received significant attention and for which …
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Correlation, Volatility-of-Volatility, and Sector Implied Volatility
How Correlation and Volatility Affect Portfolio Risk
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 20/09/2026
When Trading Strategies Look Too Good #finance #trading #investing Designing a robust trading strategy is not a trivial task. Many systems look good at the design stage but break down or experience deteriorating performance once deployed. There is a sma…
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When Trading Strategies Look Too Good
Designing a robust trading strategy is not a trivial task.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 17/09/2026
An Application of Volatility Estimators #finance #trading #investing Volatility estimators are a useful tool in volatility trading and risk management. We have discussed several types of volatility estimators, ranging from the simple Close-to-Close Hist…
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An Application of Volatility Estimators
Volatility estimators are a useful tool in volatility trading and risk management.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 16/09/2026
Path Dependence in Option P&L #finance #trading #investing The P&L attribution of an option portfolio is highly important, as it aids in portfolio and risk management. Most often, the daily P&L of an option is broken down into four components: theta, de…
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Path Dependence in Option P&L
The P&L attribution of an option portfolio is highly important, as it aids in portfolio and risk management.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 13/09/2026
Do Arbitrage Opportunities Still Exist? #finance #trading #investing The arbitrage principle is one of the cornerstones of modern finance, and it’s being used widely, from derivative pricing to hedging, trading, and risk management. Theoretically, there…
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Do Arbitrage Opportunities Still Exist?
The arbitrage principle is one of the cornerstones of modern finance, and it’s being used widely, from derivative pricing to hedging, trading, and risk management.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 12/09/2026
Impact of Spot-Volatility Correlation on Option Returns #finance #trading #investing It is well known that equity indices tend to exhibit a negative correlation with their volatility. There is some research on this relationship, often linking it to the …
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Impact of Spot-Volatility Correlation on Option Returns
It is well known that equity indices tend to exhibit a negative correlation with their volatility.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 10/09/2026
Is Cointegration the Best Method for Pairs Trading? #finance #trading #investing Pairs trading is a classic “market-neutral” trading strategy. Previously, we highlighted an article that claims that cointegration is a superior method for selecting pairs …
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Is Cointegration the Best Method for Pairs Trading?
Pairs trading is a classic “market-neutral” trading strategy.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 08/09/2026
Reflexivity and the Dynamics of Option Markets #finance #trading #investing Reflexivity is the process through which market participants’ actions influence the very market variables on which their decisions are based, creating feedback effects. In this …
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Reflexivity and the Dynamics of Option Markets
How Options Trading Creates Reflexive Market Dynamics
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 06/09/2026
Effectiveness of Volatility-Based Exit Rules #finance #trading #investing In the trading literature, we often see discussions about entry rules, but much less about exits. Some practitioners claim that exits are more important than entries. Is this real…
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Effectiveness of Volatility-Based Exit Rules
In the trading literature, we often see discussions about entry rules, but much less about exits.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 06/09/2026
Stop Losses in Options Trading #finance #trading #investing A financial option is a rather complex instrument. Unlike delta-one products, an option value depends not only on the underlying, but also on volatility, time to maturity, strike, interest rate…
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Stop Losses in Options Trading
A financial option is a rather complex instrument.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 30/08/2026
Retail Participation in the 0DTE Options Market #finance #trading #investing Retail options trading has become an important force in today’s financial markets, particularly with the rapid growth of short-dated options trading. As a result, researchers h…
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Retail Participation in the 0DTE Options Market
Retail options trading has become an important force in today’s financial markets, particularly with the rapid growth of short-dated options trading.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 29/08/2026
Trading Strategies Based on Autocorrelation Properties of Bitcoin #finance #trading #investing Bitcoin was born as a niche investment vehicle, but over time it has become a mainstream asset. Many research papers have been devoted to developing trading s…
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Trading Strategies Based on Autocorrelation Properties of Bitcoin
Bitcoin was born as a niche investment vehicle, but over time it has become a mainstream asset.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 28/08/2026
Optimization in the Indicator and Parameter Space #finance #trading #investing In today’s era of supercomputers, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning (ML), many tasks that once required hours or even days can now be completed in a fraction…
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Optimization in the Indicator and Parameter Space
In today’s era of supercomputers, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning (ML), many tasks that once required hours or even days can now be completed in a fraction of a second.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 25/08/2026
The Effects of ETF Investing on Financial Markets #finance #trading #investing Market dynamics are changing rapidly. For example, we recently discussed how the growth of retail options trading is changing market dynamics. At the same time, passive inves…
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The Effects of ETF Investing on Financial Markets
How ETF Investing Is Changing Market Dynamics
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 23/08/2026
Are Econometric Models Useful in Trading? #finance #trading #investing We have previously presented time series analysis for identifying autocorrelation properties of stock indices and econometric techniques such as ARIMA and GARCH for estimating volati…
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Are Econometric Models Useful in Trading?
We have previously presented time series analysis for identifying autocorrelation properties of stock indices and econometric techniques such as ARIMA and GARCH for estimating volatilities.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 21/08/2026
Evaluating the Performance of AI-Powered ETFs and AI/ML Stocks #finance #trading #investing Artificial intelligence has become a major focus in finance and trading. It is often portrayed as a transformative technology capable of consistently generating …
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Evaluating the Performance of AI-Powered ETFs and AI/ML Stocks
Artificial intelligence has become a major focus in finance and trading.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 19/08/2026
Long-Term Trading Strategies for Harvesting Volatility Risk Premium #finance #trading #investing Volatility (or variance) risk premium is a well-known phenomenon in financial markets. Many trading strategies have been designed to exploit it. For example…
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Long-Term Trading Strategies for Harvesting Volatility Risk Premium
Volatility (or variance) risk premium is a well-known phenomenon in financial markets.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 16/08/2026
Improving Momentum with a Volatility Regime Filter #finance #trading #investing Regime classification plays an important role in portfolio management. There are several approaches to detecting market regimes, ranging from simple to highly sophisticated …
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Improving Momentum with a Volatility Regime Filter
Regime classification plays an important role in portfolio management.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 15/08/2026
Factor Investing Through Principal Component Analysis #finance #trading #investing Factor investing is a well-known investment approach used mostly by quant funds. Even though the factors are well published, it’s important to distinguish 2 types of fact…
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Factor Investing Through Principal Component Analysis
Factor investing is a well-known investment approach used mostly by quant funds.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 13/08/2026
Do Short-Dated Options Lead the Underlying Market? #finance #trading #investing Options volume has increased dramatically in recent years, particularly in very short-dated options (0DTE and 1DTE). One theory suggests that information extracted from opti…
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Do Short-Dated Options Lead the Underlying Market?
Options volume has increased dramatically in recent years, particularly in very short-dated options (0DTE and 1DTE).
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 11/08/2026
Market Regimes and Changing Market Dynamics #finance #trading #investing Markets have been behaving unusually lately. In May, equity indices rose while volatility and skew also increased, a relatively rare occurrence historically. Since last week, the s…
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Market Regimes and Changing Market Dynamics
Identifying Market Regimes with Machine Learning and Entropy
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 08/08/2026
Long-Run Variances of Trending and Mean-Reverting Assets #finance #trading #investing Trading strategies are often loosely divided into two categories: trend-following and mean-reverting. They’re designed to exploit the mean-reverting or trending proper…
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Long-Run Variances of Trending and Mean-Reverting Assets
Trading strategies are often loosely divided into two categories: trend-following and mean-reverting.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 07/08/2026
Volatility Timing: Does It Really Add Value? #finance #trading #investing Volatility timing is the practice of adjusting portfolio exposure in response to changes in market volatility. Some practitioners regard volatility timing as one of the most effec…
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Volatility Timing: Does It Really Add Value?
Volatility timing is the practice of adjusting portfolio exposure in response to changes in market volatility.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 07/08/2026
How Options Imbalances Affect Price Dynamics #finance #trading #investing As discussed several times, markets can be loosely divided into two regimes: trending, and mean-reverting. The majority of trading literature has been devoted to exploiting these …
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How Options Imbalances Affect Price Dynamics
As discussed several times, markets can be loosely divided into two regimes: trending, and mean-reverting.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 03/08/2026
Explaining the Decline of Trend-Following CTAs #finance #trading #investing Regime change has become a recurring theme across financial markets. One of the most recognizable examples is the deterioration in the performance of trend-following Commodity T…
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Explaining the Decline of Trend-Following CTAs
Regime change has become a recurring theme across financial markets.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 31/07/2026
Using the Hurst Exponent and Stock Comovements for Pairs Trading #finance #trading #investing Pairs trading, or statistical arbitrage, is an effective market-neutral trading strategy. Usually fundamental or quantitative analysis is used in order to dete…
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Using the Hurst Exponent and Stock Comovements for Pairs Trading
Pairs trading, or statistical arbitrage, is an effective market-neutral trading strategy.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 30/07/2026
Closed-Form Option Pricing Under the Physical Measure #finance #trading #investing The Black–Scholes–Merton (BSM) model is one of the most celebrated option pricing models and remains widely used by academics and practitioners alike. At its core, it sta…
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Closed-Form Option Pricing Under the Physical Measure
The Black–Scholes–Merton (BSM) model is one of the most celebrated option pricing models and remains widely used by academics and practitioners alike.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 28/07/2026
Making Option Pricing Models More Practical #finance #trading #investing The Black-Scholes-Merton model is one of the cornerstones of modern quantitative finance. Despite its elegance and widespread use, its simplifying assumptions limit its ability to …
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Making Option Pricing Models More Practical
From Option Pricing to Portfolio Risk Management
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 25/07/2026
Are Book Values Still Useful in Value Investing? #finance #trading #investing A company’s book value is basically the net worth of its assets as found on the balance sheet, and it’s usually about equal to the amount that all shareholders will receive if…
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Are Book Values Still Useful in Value Investing?
A company’s book value is basically the net worth of its assets as found on the balance sheet, and it’s usually about equal to the amount that all shareholders will receive if the company liquidates...
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 23/07/2026
A Statistical Mechanical Model of Trend, Volatility, and Correlation #finance #trading #investing Trend and mean reversion have been studied extensively. However, Reference [1] takes a refreshing approach by applying a lattice model borrowed from statis…
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A Statistical Mechanical Model of Trend, Volatility, and Correlation
Trend and mean reversion have been studied extensively.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 23/07/2026
Tail Risk Hedging Strategies: Are They Effective? #finance #trading #investing Portfolio hedging is a risk-management practice that uses a number of strategies to mitigate the risks of any given portfolio. Tail risk hedging in particular is one of the t…
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Tail Risk Hedging Strategies: Are They Effective?
Portfolio hedging is a risk-management practice that uses a number of strategies to mitigate the risks of any given portfolio.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 21/07/2026
How 0DTE Options Are Reshaping Market Dynamics #finance #trading #investing Market dynamics have changed since the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by several structural developments. One of the most notable has been the rapid growth of retail trading, particu…
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How 0DTE Options Are Reshaping Market Dynamics
Market dynamics have changed since the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by several structural developments.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 18/07/2026
Pairs Trading Strategy-What are the Sources of Excess Returns? #finance #trading #investing Pairs trading is a quantitative trading strategy that is often discussed in the academic as well as practitioners’ literature. We have written about this trading…
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Pairs Trading Strategy-What are the Sources of Excess Returns?
Pairs trading is a quantitative trading strategy that is often discussed in the academic as well as practitioners’ literature.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 16/07/2026
Extending the Dealer Gamma Exposure Framework #finance #trading #investing Dealer Gamma Exposure (GEX) is an interesting concept that has gained attention in recent years and is now used by both retail and institutional traders. Reference [1], however, …
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Extending the Dealer Gamma Exposure Framework
Dealer Gamma Exposure (GEX) is an interesting concept that has gained attention in recent years and is now used by both retail and institutional traders.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 14/07/2026
Algorithmic Trading, HFT, and Market Stability #finance #trading #investing Advances in computing power, declining hardware costs, and the rapid rise of machine learning and algorithmic trading have fundamentally transformed modern financial markets. Wh…
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Algorithmic Trading, HFT, and Market Stability
Computerized Trading: Benefits and Risks
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 12/07/2026
Is It Better To Be Lucky Than Good? #finance #trading #investing In financial markets, the logarithms of asset prices are often modeled as a normal distribution. Elsewhere in life, many things are normally distributed: people’s height, education levels,…
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Is It Better To Be Lucky Than Good?
In financial markets, the logarithms of asset prices are often modeled as a normal distribution.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 12/07/2026
Multi-Agent LLM Systems for Trading #finance #trading #investing Large language models (LLMs) are evolving rapidly, from early text-generation systems to the latest models capable of sophisticated reasoning and multi-step decision-making. Reference [1] …
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Multi-Agent LLM Systems for Trading
Large language models (LLMs) are evolving rapidly, from early text-generation systems to the latest models capable of sophisticated reasoning and multi-step decision-making.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 09/07/2026
How Interest Rates Affect Equity Markets? #finance #trading #investing Interest rates are a determinant factor in the pricing mechanism of public markets. When interest rates go up, the cost of borrowing increases, and this affects economic activity and…
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How Interest Rates Affect Equity Markets?
Interest rates are a determinant factor in the pricing mechanism of public markets.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 05/07/2026
Does Gamma P&L Really Measure Convexity? #finance #trading #investing Decomposing option P&L into individual Greek contributions is a useful practice. The decomposition is typically derived from a Taylor expansion and serves both risk-management and res…
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Does Gamma P&L Really Measure Convexity?
Decomposing option P&L into individual Greek contributions is a useful practice.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 03/07/2026
Using Realized Volatility to Forecast Implied Volatility #finance #trading #investing Implied volatility is a measure of the expected fluctuations in a security’s price. It is used by options traders to gauge the market’s expectations for the future vol…
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Using Realized Volatility to Forecast Implied Volatility
Implied volatility is a measure of the expected fluctuations in a security’s price.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 02/07/2026
Walk-Forward Analysis for Cryptocurrency Forecasting #finance #trading #investing In today’s age of AI and machine learning, developing trading strategies from historical data is becoming increasingly accessible. As a result, a growing portion of the re…
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Walk-Forward Analysis for Cryptocurrency Forecasting
In today’s age of AI and machine learning, developing trading strategies from historical data is becoming increasingly accessible.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 30/06/2026
The Market Impact of Retail Options Trading #finance #trading #investing Retail trading, especially in the options market, which has traditionally been the domain of institutional traders, has received relatively little attention. However, with the rapi…
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The Market Impact of Retail Options Trading
The Evolution of Retail Options Trading
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 28/06/2026
Is the VRP Still the Same Risk Premium? #finance #trading #investing The volatility risk premium (VRP) is the difference between implied volatility and subsequently realized volatility, reflecting the compensation investors pay for volatility insurance.…
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Is the VRP Still the Same Risk Premium?
The volatility risk premium (VRP) is the difference between implied volatility and subsequently realized volatility, reflecting the compensation investors pay for volatility insurance.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 27/06/2026
How Monetary Uncertainty Affects Market Volatility #finance #trading #investing Monetary policy is the process by which a government, central bank, or monetary authority manages the money supply to achieve specific objectives. In most countries, these o…
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How Monetary Uncertainty Affects Market Volatility
Monetary policy is the process by which a government, central bank, or monetary authority manages the money supply to achieve specific objectives.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 26/06/2026
Narrative Risk Premia and the Pricing of Market Stories #finance #trading #investing Sentiment analysis has become an important tool in financial markets, helping researchers and practitioners extract information from news articles, social media, and ot…
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Narrative Risk Premia and the Pricing of Market Stories
Sentiment analysis has become an important tool in financial markets, helping researchers and practitioners extract information from news articles, social media, and other textual sources.
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Nam Nguyen @harbourfrontquant.substack.com · 22/06/2026
How Accurate are Technical Indicators? #finance #trading #investing A technical trading system is a set of rules that define how to enter, exit, and manage trades in the financial markets. It is based on technical analysis which seeks to identify trends…
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How Accurate are Technical Indicators?
A technical trading system is a set of rules that define how to enter, exit, and manage trades in the financial markets.
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