Estimates extinction risk from population time series under a drifted Wiener process using MLE and observation-error-and-autocovariance-robust estimators, with confidence intervals based on the w-z me...

Post provided by Hiroshi Hakoyama. Rethinking extinction probability as a conservation endpoint Thinking about conservation in terms of species extinction as an endpoint underpins how priorities ar…

Post provided by Hiroshi Hakoyama. Rethinking extinction probability as a conservation endpoint Thinking about conservation in terms of species extinction as an endpoint underpins how priorities ar…

限られた時系列データからでも、信頼区間付きで絶滅リスクを推定できるのか。本論文では drift-Wiener process の下で絶滅確率の正確な信頼区間法を導き、観測誤差と短期依存に対する OEAR 拡張も提案しました。

On April 17, 2026, a research paper from the Institute of Freshwater Biology, Nagano University, was published in the international journal Methods in Ecology and Evolution, introducing a new statisti...

2026年4月17日、限られた時系列データからでも信頼区間付きで絶滅リスクを推定できる新しい統計的枠組みに関する、長野大学淡水生物学研究所の研究成果が国際学術誌 Methods in Ecology and Evolution に掲載されました。

The assessment of extinction risk remains a key component of IUCN and CITES evaluations. However, it has been argued that, under realistic data limitations, confidence intervals (CIs) for extincti...

The Evolutionary Ecology of African Annual Killifish of the Genus Nothobranchius

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