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Georg Zachmann

@gzachmann.bsky.social
4.2K followers 550 following 784 posts

senior fellow - energy & climate policy - @bruegel_org Scientific Lead - GreenDealUkraїna - @HZBde

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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 21h
The price impact depends a lot on the supply curve and the amount of batteries added. Modelling is important here. We found that for the EU, batteries lower the OPEX of the system, but in many cases might not strongly affect average marginal prices, or even increase them.
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
EU refinery output did not fully recover after COVID, but remained relatively stable since 2021. The share of jet-fuel in the output-mix has been gradually ramped up from 3% to 8% since 2021.
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The macroeconomic impact of the current oil-price shock feels muted. One thing that has changed is that the US is now a substantial net exporter (annual oil/LNG export revenues might increase by $150bn/$50bn). Visibly the USD does not depreciate when oil prices rise.
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Commercial jet fuel stocks at the AmsterdamRotterdamAntwerp (ARA) hub touched their lowest level last week:
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
US strategic oil storage volumes that have been built over 40 years have been consumed in 2022 (-220mb) and 1H2026 (-95mb). www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/his...
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
New @unep.org report confirms that it is now realistically impossible to avoid breaching 1.5°C ... h/t @uedio.bsky.social
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Norwegian production - which currently covers almost a third of EU gas imports - could, according to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate, halve by 2035 (in the low scenario) or by 2040 (in the base scenario).
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Also in France a number of units have temporarily reduced production to comply with regulations on cooling water discharges (maybe up to 4GW). But so far other nuclear plants compensated the shortfall. world-nuclear-news.org/articles/dan...
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
There is some monthly average and minimum data (meteo-npdc.fr/hydro/V30300..., here for Ternay South of Lyon) indicating that the current 0.28m is in between the 0.11m minimum and the 0.49m mean for August. But longer time-series would be nice to get a sense of the statistical distribution. 2/2
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
DATA QUESTION: I found great open hydrologic data on Switzerland. Figure shows the current historic low levels at the last Rhone station in CH www.hydrodaten.admin.ch/en/seen-und-... But for France I can only get 30days data for the hubeau.eaufrance.fr stations - hence it is hard to compare. 1/2
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Sorry, I did crop the chart just to make it easier to digest quickly. For details, best is to check the great, constantly updated interactive figures of energy-charts.info: www.energy-charts.info/charts/power...
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Accordingly spot electricity prices for Friday are elevated (especially visible during "PV-hours" where prices otherwise are very low). The big test might be on Monday, though. SN: Exports from Ukraine currently prove helpful. 4/4
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
And further downstream on the Danube, the 1000 MW of Kozloduy NPP in Bulgaria might also have to shut down. 3/4 seenews.com/news/bulgari...
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Same might happen to the remaining 600 MW at the Romanian NPP Czernovoda - bringing the shortfall in Romania to 1200 MW. 2/4 www.reuters.com/business/ene...
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
All 1850 MW of Hungary's Paks Nuclear Power Plant (red) could be shut down entirely for 1st time due to insufficient cooling water from Danube River. unn.ua/en/news/an-e... 1/4
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
I missed this: acc. to Politico Turkey last week seems to have blocked the $27bn modernisation/extension of the NATO fuel pipeline system. I.e. there remains only limited possibility to bring fuel to the Eastern flank if the Baltic (and Adriatic) ports are blocked. www.politico.eu/article/turk...
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Shift 2: Private procurement. Companies could assess individual credits' expected mitigation value, buy and use them as collateral to borrow domestic allowances for compliance (e.g., in the EU ETS). This immediate provides finance & market information while safeguarding the compliance system. 6/10
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Shift 1: Sovereign, not project-based credits. We should move away from certifying individual projects. Instead, partner countries issue credits based on national mitigation success against a baseline, eliminating additionality concerns. 5/10
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
EU mitigation policy is only meaningful if it contributes to global emission reductions. But the EU's traditional levers to drive climate action abroad are hitting limits. Domestic targets are already tight; public climate finance is stretched. 2/10
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
The EU will allow up to 5% of its 2040 emissions target to be met via international carbon credits. This cannot just be a cheap compliance loophole. It must be a strategic lever to drive global decarbonisation. New @bruegel.org brief with Annabelle Weisser. 🧵 1/10
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Market reaction to the European Commission's proposal on the ETS Review and Electrification Act on Friday was relatively muted. Seems like electricity companies were more positively surprised than other emission intensive companies.
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
A lot of summer reading ...
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
That is the benefit of being in the room - online we only see how the starting hour silently disappeared from the webcast page.
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Thx again @hureau.fr. We fixed it (for some reason it was placed in Paris before).
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Inventories – on which we have limited visibility – seem to be draining. At the key ARA (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp) commercial storage hub crude and diesel are relatively stable, but jet fuel stocks have been dropping 30% below the 5-year average even before this renewed closure. 5/6
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Physical supply is visibly tightening. While crude imports have held steady, tanker-based arrivals of refined oil products into the EU declined considerably during the initial closure - dropping as much as 50% below the historical 5-year average. 4/6
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Prices surged during the initial shock (jet fuel +170%, crude +90%), and the renewed blockade will only add pressure. Yet EU governments have committed €12bn to cushion consumers - 55% of it via untargeted measures [more detail: www.bruegel.org/dataset/2026... 3/6
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
The EU’s structural vulnerability goes beyond crude (of which EU imports 97%). Since 1990, EU jet fuel imports grew 5-fold, and road diesel 25-fold. EU is increasingly exposed to global product markets. 2/6
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Prompted by the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz here our piece from only one month ago. The brief reopening during the ‘truce’ didn't fix the underlying 13 mb/d global shortfall. [Link to article: www.bruegel.org/analysis/europe-must-prepare-possible-oil-supply-crunch] 🧵 1/6
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
We have something new for you! Today we launched the Bruegel ETS Tracker. Based on the great work by Jan Abrell you can now easily access: - emissions by sector, location, installation, time - allocation - auction revenues - carbon prices ets.bruegel.org [feedback more than welcome]
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Daily air traffic in Europe fell below its 2025 values in April and May 2026. Over the course of June 2026 it recovered to a 3 percent increase compared to June 2025.
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
First time in five years EU gas storages were not yet half full, by Juli 1st.
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
yes, there is. We discuss it in the paper. The corresponding financial envelope over 7 years - even if it could fully utilised - would only cover 10-15% of the damage of the 2021-floods in Western Europe.
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
Can I now add unpaid LLM-trainer to my bio? intheweights.com
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
Basel is not Paris.
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
9/10: So, what needs to change? We identify and describe five areas – from narrowing the climate insurance gap to some EU-wide risk pooling – to increase fiscal resilience against climate risks.
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
8/10: And the cases show that the EU must prepare much better - at all governance levels – to withstand individual climate disasters.
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
7/10: We provide case studies from climate events in the EU which illustrate the potential size of these damages. (really great work by @keliauskaite.bsky.social and M-S Lappe).
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
6/10: Historically, Western and Southern Europe bore ~85% of cumulative per-capita losses. But looking ahead, all EU countries face severe, near-term exposure to floods and wildfires. The EU needs to prepare for an increasing frequency and cost of climate disasters.
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
3/10: The direct fiscal hit is just one channel. Extreme weather impacts the entire economy across different vectors.
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
2/10: The bill is mounting. Between 1980 and 2024, EU direct economic losses from climate extreme exceeds €800 billion. And 25% of that damage occurred in just the last four years.
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
International carbon credits are back on the EU's agenda. We prepared a taxonomy of key risks associated with project-based international carbon crediting. Spoiler: A lot of things went wrong in the past, and some problems of project-based credits are structural. www.bruegel.org/analysis/buy...
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Tour de France: +10 GW (+33%) nuclear ramping in 4h30.
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Prices affect demand! EU countries where gasoline+diesel prices incl. taxes increased more saw on average stronger automotive fuel demand reduction. [here: controlling for market size and adding diesel makes this even ore clear]
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
Good question. There is no obvious data issue. Tank-tourism is also unlikely (i.a., as absolute prices are very high). AI suggests: low baseline in 2025, and stronger economic rebound in 1Q26 - but maybe some Finns here know better ...
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
If explanatory variable is the change in the volume-weighted diesel and gasoline price, rather than only the gasoline price -> we are getting closer to statistical significance.
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
EU LNG imports in May 2026 were lower than in previous months or in May 2025, and they continued to slow down over the course of the month. Now, gas storage volumes are close to their seasonal lows. www.bruegel.org/dataset/euro...
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
Good question: Netherlands does not report the "Retail sale of automotive fuel in specialised stores" used here.
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
Prices affect demand! EU countries where gasoline prices incl. taxes increased more saw on average stronger automotive fuel demand reduction.
Scatterplot showing that EU countries with higher price increases statistically saw more demand reduction, than EU countries with lower price increases
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Ankara might not be happy with this shape.
Map of Europe excluding Russia and Belarus, but including all other territories incl. European Turkey (Istanbul); plus Cyprus.

Title: DGAP/IPQ: The Future Shape of Europe
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