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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

5/5 Other members of the research team include Jared Balik (lead author) and @coopecology.bsky.social

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 01/02/2026

Smash hit! A whopping eight people are in attendance at the 315 showing of Melania in Missoula

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

3/3 The figure below shows area burned in western US forests from 1985-2022 (focus on the purple; ignore the orange). Note that record-breaking seasons are the norm: new records are broken every few years. This graphic is modified from Parks et al. 2025 (onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...).

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 02/01/2026

I have concluded that dogs are losing their ability to walk. Perhaps @theonion.com should cover this important story.

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

I’m stoked to attend the 11th International Fire Ecology and Management Congress, share/learn about the latest fire science, and reconnect/connect with my fire science colleagues! #FireCon2025 🔥

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 04/09/2025

According to supplemental figure 4 of this paper (www.nature.com/articles/s41...), here's the 1748 pattern (top-right panel). 🔥🧪🌍

Figure S4. Percent of sites recording fire that burned in 1652 (a), 1748 (b), 1800 (c), 1855 (d), 2011 (e), and 2021 (f). These correspond to the years in which the highest average percent of sites burned within
hexels in the historical (1600-1880; a-d) and contemporary (1984-2022; e-f) time periods (refer to Fig. 2b). Historically, fires in particularly active fire years were generally widespread across the study area. In 2011, however, fire was more localized and concentrated in the south-central United States (e), and in 2021,
most fire occurred in the Pacific Northwest, with a few additional hexels recording fire elsewhere (f). Overall, fire in particularly active historical fire years was spatially more widespread and ubiquitous
compared to contemporary active fire years

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

Not a key finding, but an interesting corroboration of our findings (see supplemental material): Our results are totally in line with those of Peterson et al. (2024; doi.org/10.1073/pnas...) 6/6

Visual narrative shows how our results compare to the site sampled by Pederson et al. (2024). Aerial image of the receding glacial ice and the site sampled by Pederson et al. (2024) (a). Map shows the whitebark pine (WBP) climatic suitability in the vicinity of the site sampled by Pederson et al. (2025), with the exact site shown as a black dot under reference period (b) and mid-21st century climate (c). Inset in panel (b) shows the location of panels (b) and (c) in northwest Wyoming in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

We also used a cool moving window regression to account for variable WBP-climate relationships across the study area This means each 220 m pixel has its own model. We built over 20 million models! Model skill was high: average AUC was 0.875 and the commission/omission error rates were 6%/14% 5/6

Examples illustrating the relationships between WBP climatic suitability and each of the four variables used in the models. The map shows climatic suitability under reference period climate (1961–1990) and the locations of six pixels (a), each with its own model and corresponding relationships (b)–(g). The y-axes represent the probability of suitability as predicted by the logistic regression model for the pixel. For each pixel, variables with higher relative importance (RI) indicate those with the strongest influence on WBP climatic suitability.

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

Key finding #2: 75% of the climatically suitable area for WBP under mid-21st century climate is located in designated wilderness areas and national parks. This could challenge WBP recovery efforts, as these protected areas strive to reduce human manipulation of ecological systems. 3/6

Maps showing areas of expansion (leading edge), no change (or stable), and contraction (trailing edge) in terms of areas climatically suitable for WBP for the study area (a), the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (b), and the Sierra Nevada (c). These were produced by subtracting the reference period binary classification (figure 3(c)) from the mid-21st century binary classification (figure 3(d)). Modeled change in WBP climatic suitability between the mid-21st century and the reference period (figure 3(b) versus (a)) along a gradient of reference period Tmax is illustrated by the solid descending line in (d). This shows that most of the reduction in reference period WBP climatic suitability (i.e. the trailing edge) occurs where reference period Tmax ranges from 18 °C to 22 °C. This is intended to serve as a broad interpretation, as this relationship varies across the analysis area given that we used moving window regression to conduct our study. The histogram in (d) shows the statistical distribution of reference period Tmax for pixels that are considered climatically suitable (probability ⩾ 0.5) in either time period.

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

Key finding #1: We projected an 80% reduction in the area climatically suitable for WBP in the United States by the mid-21st century. 2/6

Maps showing the continuous ((a), (b)) and binary ((c), (d)) climatic suitability for WBP under the reference period (1961–1990) ((a), (c)) and mid-21st century climate ((b), (d)). The semi-transparent region is outside the study area and was modeled for discussion purposes (see Discussion); these areas are not included in any of our other results.

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

Plus, here’s the bear we saw while paddleboarding

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 21/08/2025

3/4 Key point #2: Strong links to intensifying climate aridity portend ongoing forest area burned and area burned severely.

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 21/08/2025

2/4 Key point #1: In addition to the rapid expansion of fire size and annual area burned in the western US since 1985, fires have become more severe, with greater impacts and long-term consequences to forest ecosystems

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 01/08/2025

#FireScarFriday Very old fire-scarred stump. The astute observer will notice two whitetail deer in the background. 🔥

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 21/06/2025

#FireScarFriday Teresa Hollingsworth (RIP) and I in front of a fire-scarred Douglas fir in the Axolotl Lakes Wilderness Study Area in SW Montana

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 21/06/2025

Here is a turtle (okay, it's really a tortoise) i saw a couple of months ago in southern Georgia

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 21/06/2025

Here's a turtle (okay, it's a tortoise) I saw in southern Georgia a couple of months ago

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 24/05/2025

Belated #FireScarFriday post. I saw some cool fire-scarred trees, snags, and stumps on my mtn bike ride today. Those two snags have 6+ fire scars each. 🔥

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 18/05/2025

Pro tip: When you are shopping at a grocery store while traveling, and the grocery store requires some stupid-ass membership to get the sale price, this phone number usually works --- local area code + 867 + 5309

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 16/05/2025

#FireScarFriday Fire-scarred western red cedar trees as seen while biking (on a Friday) in #GlacierNationalPark two weeks ago. Plus a bad picture of a mama black bear with cubs!

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 09/05/2025

Enjoy your #PublicLands while you still can (before the Trump administration sells them off)

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 09/05/2025

#FireScarFriday Me and the amazing Crystal Raymond posing in front of a fire-scarred incense cedar in the Lake Tahoe basin. 🔥

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

Must be the season of the chicks ... 🐤

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

#FireScarFriday See this little guy? This little guy has five visible fire scars! As observed in the Mica Mountain Wilderness, Saguaro NP, Arizona. Stay strong, y'all!

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

#FireScarFriday Here are some pics of fire-scarred trees from Tall Timbers Research Station in Northern Florida. Tall Timbers land is burned every 1.8 years, on average. Incredible! 🔥

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 21/03/2025

Happy #FireScarFriday & #InternationalDayOfForests I celebrated by hiking in the Santa Rita Mountains, a sky island in SE Arizona. Here are some pics of fire-scarred trees!

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 22/02/2025

Thanks for hosting me! So great to hang out with you and the others from #UCDavis

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 22/02/2025

I've come to realize this is just not true

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 10/02/2025

6/6 I'll end here with our conceptual model showing that a) fires were historically more prevalent yet served as a stabilizing feedback to ecosystems and humans by reducing fuel loads and risk of higher severity wildfires and b) contemporary fires are now destabilizing to forests and people.

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 02/02/2025

In solidarity with my Canadian friends (who are pissed off), I wore my Captain Canada jersey to today's game.

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

I'm going to UC Davis in February. I'll have to check it out! Related, here are my friends, Hilary and Hockey Mike, riding a tardigrade.

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

Quick time lapse video of our new kitten seeing snow falling for the first time #kittens

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 01/01/2025

Closing out 2024: Our rooftop solar panels produced 11,900 kWh of electricity, exceeding our family's consumption. If you are able, go solar!

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 31/12/2024

Another great day enjoying winter wonderland in Yellowstone National Park. #YellowstoneNP #HappyNewYear

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

#FireScarFriday is the most magical day of the week. Check out this cool fire-scarred tree in Siberia. 🔥 Photo credit: Victor Lukorevski

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

For #FireScarFriday, I'm posting a previously undisclosed photo of Joe Exotic (aka the Tiger King) standing next to a large, fire-scarred ponderosa pine in western Montana. 🔥

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

5/5 ... Please post your fun fire scar pics and science-related fire-scar stuff using the #FireScarFriday hashtag. Below shows an impressive fire-scarred western larch in Montana. Peace out.

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

3/n ... Many forests in western North America are littered with fire-scarred trees and stumps. Here is an old stump in western Montana with 10+ fire scars (as indicated by the red arrows). ...

Fire-scarred stump. The red box shows the extent of the other zoomed in picture

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

2/n ... As the tree continues to grow, the fire is recorded by the tree in what is called a fire scar. Because tree rings can be aged, scientists can determine the years in which these fires historically occurred. . .

Using tree rings, scientists can determine the years in which fires historically occurred

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

1/n 🧪🌏🔥 On the other site, I started what can only be considered a viral hashtag called #FireScarFriday. It's time to introduce #FireScarFriday to BlueSky! What are fire scars and fire-scarred trees? Trees can often survive a #wildfire but are damaged by said fire. ...

Large fire-scarred ponderosa pine in western Montana

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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 01/11/2024

Happy Halloween to all the science enthusiasts on bluesky!

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