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Gennady Rudkevich

@grudkevich.bsky.social
3K followers 279 following 254 posts

Economist. Former Assistant Professor of Political Science, focusing on Russia and Central Asia. All views my own.

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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 14h
I'm not sure how many care at this point (they might eventually). It's been a non-issue in the current election cycle. The closest example I can think of is the US in 2003.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The last time these groups fought (2020-2022), at least 100,000 people died. This time, there's potential for even higher casualties, with additional Ethiopian regions along with Sudan being involved in some capacity. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/w...
nytimes.com
Tigrayan Forces Mobilize Against the Central Government in Ethiopia (Gift Article)
Tigray People’s Liberation Front seized a key airport in the city of Mekelle, as fears grow of a possible return to a full-scale war.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Unfortunately, that might require one or two constitutional changes. I have always wondered what would happen if we simply got rid of the presidency and transferred its powers to the Speaker.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Technically, impeachment requires high crimes and misdemeanors, but realistically, it's a political process. A legislature committed to "fixing" an electoral mistake could always find an impeachable offense. Happens in Latin America all the time.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
The problem is you can't have votes of confidence in a presidential system since it allows for divided government (the opposition would always call for new elections). We technically have a mechanism for what you propose: impeachment. The same factors precluding one would preclude the other.
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Reposted by Gennady Rudkevich
Olga Nesterova @onestpress.onestnetwork.com · 19/09/2026
Election in occupied areas by Russia - voting under military supervision.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
What an astounding level of incompetence by a significant number of highly qualified people who really should have known better. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/15/w...
nytimes.com
Professor’s Death Leaves Behind Hard Questions for Cambridge on Race and Hiring (Gift Article)
Jason Arday, the school’s youngest Black professor, was found dead on Friday. The school ignored a series of warnings about his life story and his work.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
On cue.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
Just in case anyone in the future gets confident about their team based on pre-season standings (underlined teams in Stanley Cup Finals).
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
I will never cease to be amazed by people who are shocked that someone who's deeply immoral in one arena ends up being equally immoral in another.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Casualty figures, especially for autocracies, are notoriously unreliable. Having said that, the only countries to suffer 500,000 battlefield fatalities since World War II are Vietnam (Vietnam War) and Iran (Iran-Iraq War). Both wars lasted much longer than Russia's. www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
Almost 500,000 Russian soldiers killed since start of Ukraine war
GCHQ's director Anne Keast-Butler set out the threats facing the UK in her inaugural public speech.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Without a 2/3 majority, Poland's new government wasn't able to remove all remnants of the old regime. As a result, it lost a presidential election a mere 1.5 years after taking office. Orban's constitutional changes, on the other hand, create a much easier path for a total overhaul in Hungary.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
For a point of comparison: Poland's PiS government received 35% of the vote in the last general election. Orban's Fidesz got 38%. But because Poland uses proportional representation while Hungary awards most seats by single-member district, PiS got 42% of the seats while Fidesz ended up with 28%.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
The irony of Orban losing big due to the large number of seats chosen through single-member constituencies and lack of run-offs when he previously changed the constitution to create more single-member constituency seats and eliminated run-offs. instituteofgeoeconomics.org/en/research/...
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
I wish I could end this on an optimistic note or provide a solution, but every tool that has historically been used to mitigate international violence has been broken, quite possibly beyond repair. If anything, we have yet to hit rock bottom.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
It's clear that the great powers are unwilling to stop this violence (even when they're not the catalysts themselves). Middle powers are too busy trying to avoid getting sucked into the violence to do much to stop it. International law has completely collapsed. We're in for very bloody times.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Just in the past 4 years, we've seen largescale violence between Thailand and Cambodia; Armenia and Azerbaijan; Russia and Ukraine; Israel and Lebanon, Iran (twice); US and Iran (twice); and Afghanistan and Pakistan. Even within domestic politics, violence is ascendant, with numerous recent coups.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Since WWII ended, the likelihood of war has been low in much of the world. Even countries known for violence fought one war every 1-2 decades. The diplomatic cost of war has fallen so low that even countries that would be inclined to resolve disputes peacefully in the past may now opt for violence.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
I know the world is going from one crisis to another, but I haven't seen much written about the implication of a shift to a much more violent world order. Violence has been legitimized in a way it hasn't been since the 1930s. The consequences have been minimal. The odds of war increase everywhere.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
Here's the Dow Jones graph.
A graph of the Dow Jones from 1973 to 1982.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
For anyone discounting the consequences of stagflation: Dow Jones was basically unchanged between the first Oil Crisis (1973) and 1982. That's almost a decade of 0% returns.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
I'm old enough to remember the countless news stories explaining how oil prices don't entirely determine gas prices and that we shouldn't expect lower oil prices to automatically translate to lower gas prices. I guess that logic only works in one direction. finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-pri...
finance.yahoo.com
When Oil Prices Go Down, Why Don’t Gas Prices Follow?
One of the biggest factors influencing gas prices is the cost of crude oil. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the cost of the raw material accounted for 59% of the price of a.....
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
Strange how decreases in oil prices don't affect gas prices for months, while increases in oil prices affect gas prices within a day. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/b...
nytimes.com
Gas Prices Continue to Surge in U.S., Rising 14% in a Week
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
With Khamenei's death confirmed, there are now 14 national rulers (de facto) who've been in power for the entirety of the 21st century.
List of national rulers who've been in power since 2000: 

Hassanal Bolkiah
Obiang
Biya
Museveni
Mswati III
Afwerki
Rahmon
Kagame
Lukashenka
Sassou Nguesso
Abdullah II
Guelleh
Mohammed VI
Putin
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Dictators always claim that the tyranny is necessary for providing their people security. And yet, they consistently show themselves to be more proficient at butchering their own people than at protecting them.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
What happened in Iran is the fate of any society where extra-judicial killings go unpunished. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/25/w...
nytimes.com
How Iran Crushed a Citizen Uprising With Lethal Force
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
Curious what happened to all the realists claiming that who leads a country is irrelevant and that all rulers pursue a hardcoded set of national interests.
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Reposted by Gennady Rudkevich
Stanislav Aseyev @stanislavaseyev.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
During this time, the Germans managed to reach Moscow and be pushed back to Berlin - and Putin got stuck near Myrnograd.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 20/12/2025
Pinky swear this time. www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
Putin vows no more wars if West treats Russia with respect
Russia's leader said during a TV marathon that claims that an attack on Europe was planned were "nonsense".
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 06/12/2025
RSF continues with its wave of war crimes in Sudan. www.npr.org/2025/12/06/g...
npr.org
Sudanese paramilitary drone attack kills 50, including 33 children, doctor group says
Thursday's attack is the latest in the fighting between the paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces, also known as the RSF, and the Sudanese military, who have been at war for over two years.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
It's amazing how the same people who had "crypto" in their profiles have suddenly transformed into AI experts. Can't wait for their next transformation.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
I guess they were on the same side of a major military conflict.
en.wikipedia.org
Cretan Revolt (1897–1898) - Wikipedia
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
Minus the whole Russian occupation of chunks of Moldova and Georgia and the NATO bombing of Republika Srpska and Yugoslavia.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
A good background on the Butcher of El Fasher. ca.news.yahoo.com/made-money-s...
ca.news.yahoo.com
He made his money selling camels and gold. Now this warlord controls half of Sudan
Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo will either lead a breakaway state or seek to take control of the whole country, Sudanese say.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
And this is just the tip of the iceberg of recent crimes against humanity in Sudan. news.un.org/en/story/202...
news.un.org
Reported massacre at hospital in Sudan’s El Fasher leaves 460 dead
Horrific stories of mass-atrocities committed by the RSF militia continue to emerge, along with the tens of thousands of civilians who have fled the North Darfur city of El Fasher in Sudan.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 25/10/2025
If Maduro is overthrown, what stops regime loyalists from teaming up with cartels to seize control over chunks of Venezuela? And what would prevent a very violent civil war between various armed groups for control of the drug routes? No new government could assert control over the entire country.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
And that's how ethnic Russians make up a majority of all but a handful of Russia's Asian regions.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
Since it's that time of the year (when NHL fans have hope for their team based on its preseason performance), I decided to run some correlations between performance in the preseason and the ensuing season. The correlation is 0.08. A perfect correlation is | 1 |. For the graphically inclined:
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 28/09/2025
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 28/09/2025
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 28/09/2025
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 21/09/2025
Important lesson for ruling party elites who believe there's nothing to fear as long as they remain loyal to those in power. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/w...
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
This is also what happens when you anger your own constituency while forgetting that opposition supporters live in an entirely different media ecosystem that will never give you credit, no matter how consistent your policies are with their previously stated preferences.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Putin wants legal recognition of Russia's military conquests. But getting that recognition would require Russia to give something in return. Meanwhile, Russia isn't actually offering a single concession. No, promising not to attack (especially given Russia's track record) isn't a serious concession.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
The equivalent situation today would be for Russia to push for the annexation of the Crimea, with perhaps some form of an autonomous status (within Ukraine) with a Russian veto for certain decisions in Donetsk and Lugansk. The reason there is no chance for peace is Russia is asking for too much.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Alternatively, countries needed to achieve major military successes to annex a single region. This is because they realized that achieving international legal recognition of an annexation was worth more than military victory. Without such recognition, the value of the land was severely diminished.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Since Putin is basically acting as if we're still in the 19th century in terms of foreign affairs, it's strange that he doesn't apply a 19th century logic to his current war. Back then, if you wanted to achieve maximalist goals, you needed to occupy the enemy capital.
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
Nominal GDP (in trillion $): California: 4.10 Texas: 2.71 New York: 2.30 Russia: 2.08 Missouri: 0.45 Moscow: 0.42
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
Nominal GDP (in trillion $): Sweden: 0.62 Norway: 0.50 Denmark: 0.45 Finland: 0.30 Iceland: 0.04 Total Nordic: 1.91 Russia: 2.08
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Gennady Rudkevich @grudkevich.bsky.social · 17/08/2025
Might as well have promised to attack Estonia instead of Ukraine next time.
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