Sign in

Grid Status

@gridstatus.io
3.1K followers 4 following 238 posts

www.gridstatus.io/live

PostsRepliesMedia
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 16/07/2026
Wildfire smoke is wreaking havoc on solar forecasting in the northeast #energysky
062
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 26/06/2026
The loss of California's battery crown has been greatly exaggerated, if you measure actual unit capability The EIA reports not just nameplate MW, but also MWh. Using this value, California's installed grid-battery duration is greater than the sum of the next two states, Texas and Arizona #energysky
1120
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 14/05/2026
Second, curtailment in CAISO absolutely exploded in April, shattering monthly records for both solar and wind
130
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 14/05/2026
Couple of recent renewables observations First, MISO has come from behind to soundly take the lead on peak solar output from PJM. These are the two largest markets in North America, and interesting test cases given quite different geographic attributes compared to early movers CAISO and ERCOT 🔌💡
151
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 02/04/2026
Datacenter load growth has been top of mind, but the most rapid demand expansion over the last decade was in ERCOT's Far West Weather Zone This quadrupling of demand started before AI, and predates Texas' spurt of crypto growth. Instead, it's anchored in a traditional Texas industry: oil and gas 🔌💡
Datacenter-driven load growth has been top of mind for the last two years, but the most rapid expansion in demand over the last decade has been in ERCOT's Far West Weather Zone.

This quadrupling of demand started well before the AI-driven datacenter bonanza, and also predates Texas' spurt of crypto-mining load growth. Instead, it has been anchored in the latest expression of a traditional Texas industry: oil and gas.

Anyone who's sited a battery project in West Texas can tell you about the criss-crossing mess of wires as you attempt to nail down a particular line, tap, and voltage while dodging or dealing with the extensive land holdings of a handful of powerful entities that aren't particularly interested in someone else's infrastructure.

Conversely, efforts to expand cheaper and more reliable electric power across basin operations have been welcomed with open arms.

Three other tidbits to call out:

Demand is almost completely flat hour-over-hour, which speaks to the predominance of industrial load across all seasons as opposed to the typical rise and fall of areas with higher populations.
Starting in 2024, a mid-day bump appears as battery capacity expanded across the region. This has completely disappeared since the implementation of RTC+B, as wholesale storage load is no longer included in real-time load reporting from ERCOT.
Summer months, where AC load was able to produce a small evening peak, shifted to a morning peak from the battery demand. This should shift back in 2026 with the aforementioned RTC+B change.
02811
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 31/03/2026
SPP's expanded over the the interconnection DC tie line with the first day-ahead market clear that includes SPP West (SWPW) Day one sees regular congestion spreads, with decent consistency in price impact across locations in the newly-RTO territory. Alt text has more #energysky
Load northeast of Denver, particularly around Reunion, served by United Power Inc., a local co-op, saw persistently higher prices across the entire day-ahead clear.

Conversely, locations south of Denver, away from load, had lower prices. In the midday, Pueblo Hydro was among the lowest priced locations, while in the morning, Colorado Highlands Wind, even further from load in northeastern Colorado, saw the lowest prices.

In the evening, it was another hydro facility south of Denver that had the lowest price, but this time, northwest of Colorado Springs. The 28 MW Tesla (no relation) hydroelectric plant is on the grounds of the US Air Force Academy. This resource is non-dispatchable, but still considered by SPP in modeling the grid.
021
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 18/02/2026
not just batteries and ancillary services, did you know that they also changed load reporting?
020
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 26/01/2026
Round-up on the day's events, trends, and outcomes www.gridstatus.io/insights/345...
000
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 23/01/2026
We're also posting through it on Insights Started early this morning with looks at the spread of day-ahead LMPs across all locations in any particular hour www.gridstatus.io/insights/342... then followed up with 4 market pairings, e.g. www.gridstatus.io/insights/342...
day-ahead prices for power markets in the US and Canada
030
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 23/01/2026
Winter weather is here for a huge swath of the US, and power market impacts are likely 🔌💡 We've made two winter hazards and grid condition dashboards publicly available to anyone with a free account Outlook: www.gridstatus.io/dashboards/c... Ops: www.gridstatus.io/dashboards/d...
1115
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 14/01/2026
Dominion revised its near term forecast down as bottlenecks limit new builds. AEP also has a more gradual curve and a major drop in its 2030 forecast, which may be a result of new tariffs that require large loads to pre pay for electric demand we'll be posting more at www.gridstatus.io/insights
010
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 14/01/2026
COMED, home to a high share of wind and nuclear power, has seen a rapid increase in expected load growth by the end of the decade. In Dayton Power & Light, a combination of new data center load is expected to spike load levels in 2030.
110
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 14/01/2026
PJM’s long-term load forecast saw values rise once again in 2026, but the new forecast is outpaced by 2025’s until the 2030s in both the summer and winter 🔌💡 insidelines.pjm.com/pjms-updated...
132
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 19/12/2025
Similar to nearby New England, NYISO’s heating is dominated by oil and natural gas . While pipeline limitations are not as big of a concern as in ISO-NE, extended cold snaps and high demand in zones J and K can drive up spot pricing.
Similar to nearby New England, NYISO’s heating is dominated by  oil  and  natural gas . While pipeline limitations are not as big of a concern as in ISO-NE, extended cold snaps and high demand in zones J and K can drive up spot pricing.  
100
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 19/12/2025
The vast majority of heating in ISO-NE is fossil, split between heating oil and natural gas . The reliance on natural gas, particularly in densely populated areas in Eastern MA, along the Connecticut River, and in the NYC suburbs, place added strain on pipeline supply during cold weather events.
The vast majority of heating in ISO-NE is fossil, split between  heating oil  and  natural gas . The reliance on natural gas, particularly in densely populated areas in Eastern MA, along the Connecticut River, and in the NYC suburbs, place added strain on pipeline supply during cold weather events.
101
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 19/12/2025
With winter in full swing, households across the country have dialed their thermostats up, but the fuels and technologies keeping homes warm vary widely by region. This is mostly driven by climate, historical prices, and year of industrialization/electrification 🔌💡
Primary home heating fuel source varies across US regions

This is mostly driven by climate, historical prices, and year of industrialization/electrification.
281
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 21/11/2025
New England and New York have new ties with Québec coming online over the next 6 months, but is the power there to support them? 🔌💡 Earlier this year we noticed that flows into the US, and particularly New York, had dropped off, years before the threat of tariffs blog.gridstatus.io/more-hqs-tha...
quebec flipping from a new exporter to importer with nyiso over the last 7 years
1103
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 11/11/2025
seasonal flows and price between regions and more! check it out and track live outcomes on www.gridstatus.io/live
010
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 11/11/2025
Flows during previous winter events originated in the southwest, were scheduled through CAISO, and into the PNW. What happens with multiple seams in the way?
110
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 11/11/2025
That SPP expansion will lead to optimizing two balancing authorities , one in the eastern interconnection, one in the western
100
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 11/11/2025
Part two of our Western Markets series went up at the end of last week 🔌💡 this time we focus on SPP West, the undecideds, Canada, and risks in the West blog.gridstatus.io/western-mark...
152
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 28/10/2025
Like any event that changes daily routines, Halloween impacts load curves across the country Over the past 9 years, real-time load has underperformed almost all of PJM’s forecasts over the evening peak, precisely during prime trick-or-treating hours 🔌💡
load forecast error in PJM around Halloween
053
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 23/10/2025
people get excited about price spikes in the real-time market, but most energy clears in the day-ahead, here's a look at CAISO's scheduled demand vs actual, typically the variation is within +/- 5%
101
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 23/10/2025
the West may not have a comprehensive RTO, or two, but it's had quite a few administrative layers over the years
timeline of events in the western interconnection
100
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 23/10/2025
CAISO and SPP have new day-ahead markets (each of which includes real-time balancing markets) coming into service over the next 2 years, while AESO (Alberta) is also restructuring their market (similar to Ontario [IESO] earlier this year)
CAISO, SPP, and AESO and their new market timelines
101
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 16/10/2025
ISO-NE just became the first multi-state ISO to phase out coal, nearly two and a half years ahead of schedule 🔌💡 short 🧵
23812
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 10/10/2025
As PJM prepares its 2026 load outlook utility forecasts show a rapidly shifting landscape, with smaller zones predicting surging demand 🔌💡 A balancing question in play is whether large zones can continue to scale larger, or if small areas have the headroom to steal momentum in the datacenter race
large load demand growth for dominion, aep, ppl, comed, and dayton in PJM, from 2025 thorough 2035, bar chart
133
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 09/10/2025
A little teaser of our next product release: Grid Status Insights. Insights is a real-time feed of expert commentary on energy markets and the electric grid — straight from our team of talented analysts. If you’ve enjoyed our blogs or social posts, you’re going to love this. Stay tuned 🔌💡
031
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 06/10/2025
We’re early in the process of rolling out a new app— Nodal Analysis. DM if you’d like to test it and share feedback 🔌💡 We built it with two key upgrades: 1. A new database that runs on-demand analysis of years of data in seconds 2. An enhanced process for organizing the metadata for 75k+ locations
133
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 03/10/2025
It’s duck hunting season as California’s summer fades away and demand from batteries takes firm grasp of CAISO’s daily demand curves 🔌💡
chart showing load with and without battery charging in CAISO
1222
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 19/09/2025
Net load volatility is on the rise as SPP enters shoulder season 🔌💡 In decades past, the fall shoulder season left time for autumn fun like apple picking and the pumpkin patch. Today, new metrics like net load drive markets, and they can be most volatile when outages rise and weather varies
chart of net load in spp on september 6th and 16th, much bigger swings on the 16th
141
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 09/09/2025
Very different load shapes, some crypto in ERCOT is also switching to be generic datacenters as well. Some slides from this meeting www.ercot.com/calendar/081...
In the first half of 2025 Traditional Data Centers load grew by about 5%
Most of this was observed from April 1 to May 10. (3.9%) 
Current installed capacity = 6,400MW Approved to Energize (LLI) + Operational (non-LLI)
crypto, datacenter, storage load curves, all difference, crypto moves the mostERCOT has approximately 380 storage/compute data centers. 
Of those, 54 are considered Med/Large (>25MW).
040
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 09/09/2025
ERCOT load-watchers will know that many days this summer have had a strikingly flat peak load curve, driven by curtailment to avoid 4CP intervals. Less clear was just how much of the resulting forecast gap could be driven by extremely flexible crypto demand. It turns out the answer is a lot 🔌💡
On key summer days in 2025, crypto curtailment in ERCOT has met or exceeded the entire day-ahead load forecast error

From January through July, crypto mining in ERCOT grew by ~200 MW on net to ~4 GW, far lower than assumed by forecasts prior to 2025, but more than enough to drastically reshape peak load curves during the 4CP season.


graph showing this
2165
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 04/09/2025
Check out the blog for more, and when you're done reading, try out the new weather radar layer on our nodal price map! www.gridstatus.io/map
nodal price map on gridstatus.io
010
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 04/09/2025
Today, thunderstorm alerts can be a way for traders to make big swings, but as a real-time only stochastic event that interacts with a mix of deterministic and stochastic factors to create market outcomes, the final result can vary /3
congestion rent attributable to TSAs over the last 11 yearsbig price swings on the source and sink sides of a july 1st, 2025 TSA
100
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 04/09/2025
the 1977 blackout was a critical moment in NYC history, leading to deaths, arson, and new operational rules, like thunderstorm alerts /2
timeline of the 1977 blackoutgenerators failing to meet claimed capability during the 1977 blackout and system frequency
100
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 26/08/2025
As Hurricane Erin approached New England last week, a curious thing happened. Wind generation in the ISO plateaued well above forecasts, sitting around the same level through Thursday into Friday Wind was low onshore, and the MW level approximately matches Vineyard Wind's possible output 🔌💡
162
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 11/08/2025
Congestion into the Baltimore area spiked as afternoon cooling load ramped up and demand increased, it had ticked up a tiny amount when the first Tx outages happened this morning, but steadily increased post-noon
nodal price map showing the mid-atlantic of PJM
030
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 11/08/2025
Summer heat is only typical today, as BGE is forecast to only reach a fraction of its July demand peak
chart of load and load forecast in bge, load might only top out at like 5k MW
130
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 11/08/2025
BGE was already facing conservation calls and EEA2 as the PJM area braces for potential outages following a generator transmission disconnect earlier in the day
240
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 11/08/2025
The Baltimore area (BGE) of PJM just entered load shedding 🔌💡
Msg ID:	104779
Message Type:	Load Shed DirectivePAI Trigger
Priority:	Action
Effective Start Time:	08.11.2025 15:52
Regions	BGE
A Load Shed Directive has been issued to mitigate an N-5 cascade analysis at 115kv Chestnut -Fredrick Rd 110-528-A in BGE .
Additional Comments: Load shed directive to maintain post contingency flow below 115% of load dump rating.
1111
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 08/08/2025
Wildfire smoke complicated NYISO’s BTM solar forecast this week, overforecasting by over 500 MW on Monday and underforecasting by 1,000 MW on Tuesday This miss was not even, downstate zones, home to >50% ofload, hewed more closely to the forecast, while upstate zones saw large swings 🔌💡
072
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 28/07/2025
Another hot week across the eastern interconnection 🔌💡 ~5 markets look to beat last summer's peak, while 3 seem likely to exceed this summer's forecast peak You can track the outlook on our summer hazards dashboard: www.gridstatus.io/dashboards/e...
bar charts with load forecasts and demand records across marketsNOAA's HeatRisk map, hot in the east
041
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 25/07/2025
Beyond turbine supply, the future of gas is not all bright as domestic prices have exposure to global price shocks via LNG exports, which are set to resume growth and continue becoming a greater share of US gas production tighter supply and increased volatility, another ratepayer stressor
HH and LNG prices over timeLNG exports as a share of marketable gas
152
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 25/07/2025
Adding in new Amazon and Google demand to the zone shows that PPL demand would have regularly exceeded internal generating capacity during the June heatwave
PPL demand, demand + Google and Amazon, capacity deficit
121
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 25/07/2025
Google and Brookfield announced a 670 MW deal for two hydro plants in PPL, but even at their peak output over the last 20 years their actual output was far lower than 100% coupled with legacy capacity carveouts to serve Amtrak's 25Hz system, it's unclear what the real terms of this deal are
capacity factors for holtwood, safe harbor, and susquehanna
110
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 25/07/2025
PPL demand went from essentially flat in the 2024 load forecast to 70% growth in 6 years in the 2025 forecast. Despite that, the 2025 report still under-forecast peak demand for this summer, as assumed growth doesn't really come online until next year.
bar chart showing what the post says
110
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 22/07/2025
PJM’s 2026/27 BRA cleared at the market cap across the entire RTO, signaling no end to Big Tech’s insatiable demand for datacenter power Look for a blog from us later this week on recent PPA action in PPL and PJM's tight capacity conditions. 🔌💡
PJM’s 2026/27 BRA cleared at the market cap across the entire RTO,
signaling no end to Big Tech’s insatiable demand for datacenter power
021
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 17/07/2025
Google’s 670 MW hydroelectric PPA with existing Brookfield hydropower in PJM is a sign of the times. Also in the PPL zone, Amazon’s attempt to take Talen’s Susquehanna nuclear plant behind-the-meter has been in the news since last year Over 2.5 GW of data center PPAs signed in a single zone 🔌💡
These deals come at an already challenging time for PJM. While PPL cleared ~8.6 GW in the recent 2025/2026 Base Residual Auction (BRA) and only hit a peak load of 7.6 GW during late June’s record-breaking heat wave, these PPAs tie into existing generation, exacerbating PJM’s growing supply imbalance and cutting into supply.

Many saw the 25/26 BRA as a flashing alarm that the balance between supply and demand was tightening fast. PJM has faced tens of GWs in generation retirements while load growth, driven by data centers in Dominion, has taken off. Capacity prices hit record highs, driving double-digit rate hikes and even prompting some states to threaten to leave PJM entirely. 

At the same time, generation buildouts have lagged. The RTO’s now-infamous interconnection freeze slowed generation additions, and the bulk of new capacity has been intermittent renewables without storage. Queue reforms are expected to accelerate new additions relative to the status quo, but starting from a low point means there is a long way to go.

While all three plants may rely on the Susquehanna River, their real-time basis exposure has diverged sharply in recent years. Unlike new plants relying on modeling to provide benchmarks, these facilities have decades of operation to inform the contours of a PPA. As tech companies ramp up power consumption, they have become savvy buyers, likely factoring in basis hedges while at the same time paying a premium for firm, clean power when it is increasingly hard to come by.
042
Grid Status @gridstatus.io · 08/07/2025
During the June heatwave, behind-the-meter solar in New England shifted peak demand by 2 hours and nearly 3 GW. Without BTM solar, ISO-NE may have broken its nearly 20 year-old demand record, challenging assumptions about load growth in the region. 🔌💡
During the June heatwave, behind-the-meter solar in New England shifted peak demand by 2 hours and nearly 3 GW. Without BTM solar, ISO-NE may have broken its nearly 20 year-old demand record, challenging assumptions about load growth in the region.


Stephen King’s foreboding New England is not the first place you’d think of as a leader in solar generation, but the region’s heavy concentration of behind the meter (BTM) solar was able to meet nearly 6 GW of load over the afternoon of June 24th while utility scale solar produced only 750 MW.

Even during the shifted evening peak, BTM is estimated to have reduced hourly load by over 800 MW. BTM helped keep prices under control during solar hours, shifting volatility to the evening net load peak when expensive oil generators ramped up to meet ~3.5 GW of load. 

While BTM solar had a notable impact during the heatwave, it was nowhere to be found during this year’s winter peak. On January 21st, load peaked after sunset, meaning BTM systems were unable to offset demand. The lack of BTM generation coincides with operational challenges from pipeline constraints during the winter as gas is utilized for direct heating.

ISO-NE is currently a summer peaking region, but heating and transportation electrification is expected to shift the peak to winter in the 2030s. The adoption of these technologies has been slower than expected, leading to weaker load forecasts in recent years. Despite BTM’s growing role in shaping summer demand, the transition to a winter-peaking region without distributed battery adoption alongside BTM solar presents new challenges. 

While the heatwave at the end of June certainly drove attention, summer is not over yet, and factoring BTM solar into decision-making is increasingly important. Track this, along with wider grid dynamics, with our live pages for New England and beyond.
0165