Sign in

Snow White

@greatwhitecon.info
136 followers 73 following 101 posts

Putting the Arctic sea ice record straight

PostsRepliesMedia
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 09/09/2026
For the third month running low pressure was dominant over the Central Arctic Basin during August: greatwhitecon.info/2026/09/fact... Temperatures at the 925 hPa pressure level were anomalously high across most of the Arctic, particularly over the Kara Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago.
000
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 21/07/2026
New record retreat of the Jakobshavn Glacier in West Greenland: greatwhitecon.info/2026/07/new-... Animation via Espen Olsen at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum Cc: @peterwsinclair.bsky.social @ruthmottram.eurosky.social
010
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 16/06/2026
Here's a “false colour” image of the swirl of cloud caused by a cyclone over the central #Arctic this morning. The choice of frequencies in the visualisation makes it easier to distinguish clouds from snow and ice. More at: greatwhitecon.info/2026/06/fact...
A “false colour” image of an Arctic cyclone centred over the Laptev Sea on June 16th 2026, from the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite
020
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 20/02/2026
In other news from the High North, it now seems exceedingly unlikely that JAXA extent will achieve a record low maximum this year. The metric is currently 4th lowest for the date (in the satellite era) at 13.68 million km², marginally below last year’s maximum of 13.78 million km². 2/2
000
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 20/02/2026
Here is our mid February update on Arctic sea ice thickness and volume, based on the Alfred Wegener Institute’s merged CryoSat-2/Sentinel 3/SMOS gridded sea ice thickness data: greatwhitecon.info/2026/02/fact... 1/
100
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 17/02/2026
In related news: greatwhitecon.info/2026/01/the-... "On December 17th 2025 Russ Vought, Director of the United States Office of Management and Budget, announced on X that The National Science Foundation will be breaking up the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado."
000
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 15/02/2026
ERA5 data for January 2026 has still not made it over to @noaa.gov's "Web-based Reanalyses Intercomparison Tools". Rather belatedly here is our @nsidc.bsky.social #Arctic sea ice news replacement service, reverting to the NCEP/NCAR R1 reanalysis: greatwhitecon.info/2026/02/fact...
031
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 05/02/2026
Two different varieties of Arctic sea ice thickness, and hence volume, at the end of January 2026. Compare and contrast the PIOMAS "model" versus satellite "measurements": greatwhitecon.info/2026/02/fact...
A map of Arctic sea ice thickness on January 31st 2026, based on the PIOMAS model developed by the Polar Science Center at the University of Washington.A map of Arctic sea ice thickness on January 31st 2026.

It's based on merged CryoSat-2, Sentinel 3 and SMOS satellite data from the Alfred Wegener Institute.A graph of Arctic sea ice volume on January 31st 2026, including data going back to 2010.

It's based on the PIOMAS model developed by the Polar Science Center at the University of Washington.A graph of Arctic sea ice volume on January 31st 2026, including data going back to 2010.

It's based on merged CryoSat-2, Sentinel 3 and SMOS satellite data from the Alfred Wegener Institute.
000
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 23/01/2026
Wake the bear
000
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 17/01/2026
The fantasy emperor is sadly lacking in new clothes: greatwhitecon.info/2025/12/the-... Image courtesy of ImageFX, not Grok.
"Donald Duck"

An AI generated image of The Don floating on a lake in a giant yellow rubber duck, wearing a diaper and waving a toy sword.
110
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 12/01/2026
Due to Trump administration funding cuts @nsidc.bsky.social is no longer providing this sort of information on a monthly basis. Hence here are the ERA5 MSLP and 925 hPa air temperature anomaly maps of the #Arctic for December 2025: greatwhitecon.info/2026/-01/fac...
ERA5 mean sea level pressure map of the Arctic for December 2025.ERA5 temperature anomaly map of the Arctic at the 925 hPa pressure level for December 2025.
011
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 11/01/2026
Since AI imagery is in the news at the moment, here's one I prepared earlier, with the assistance of ImageFX rather than #Grok
An AI generated image of Donald Trump cosplaying a Viking warrior in a Greenland fjord.
001
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 05/01/2026
Whichever way you look at it, PIOMAS modelled #Arctic sea ice volume is currently the lowest it has ever been for the time of year since satellite coverage began in 1979. Here's plots of the daily, monthly and annual data 👇 greatwhitecon.info/2026/01/fact...
Daily plot of PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume from 2010 to December 31st 2025Plot of December average PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume from 1979 to 2025Plot of annual average PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume from 1979 to 2025
000
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 09/12/2025
The Trump White House’s [lack of] National Security Strategy in the Arctic: greatwhitecon.info/2025/12/the-... "It makes no mention of the #Arctic or Alaska or even Greenland... Or of any risk of conflict between Russia and the United States, in the Arctic or anywhere else on Planet Earth."
The Nagurskoye military base on Aleksandra Island in Franz Josef Land.

Image via @thebarentsobserver.com
000
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 08/12/2025
According to the @nebriefing.bsky.social web site: "81 MPs and 52 Peers signed up to attend, and many others arrived at the last minute without tickets." Do you suppose that any of them were listening? 5/5
Publicity image for the 2025 UK National Emergency Briefing on the Climate and Nature Crisis, asserting that over 1,600 "fossil fuel lobbyists" attended the COP 30 conference in Brazil, whereas "Zero" such lobbyists would be attending the UK event.
000
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 08/12/2025
Here's an extract from Lieutenant General (Ret’d) Richard Nugee's presentation at the recent UK #NationalEmergencyBriefing: greatwhitecon.info/2025/12/the-... "The Russian Duma has claimed [the Arctic Ocean] is a Russian internal sea, whereas we treat the #Arctic as international waters." 1/n
Map of ports and military bases near and within the Arctic Circle
111
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 08/12/2025
At the end of November JAXA #Arctic sea ice extent and PIOMAS volume were both lowest for the time of year since satellite measurements began: greatwhitecon.info/2025/12/fact... Extent was 9.27 million km², and volume 9.20 thousand km³.
A graph of JAXA/ViSHOP Arctic sea ice extent on December 4th 2025A graph of PIOMAS "modelled" Arctic sea ice volume on November 30th 2025
000
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 07/11/2025
Here's a map of #Arctic sea ice thickness at the end of October: greatwhitecon.info/2025/11/fact... It's based on data from the CryoSat-2, Sentinel 3 and SMOS satellites.
A map of Arctic sea ice thickness on October 31st 2025.

It's based on merged CryoSat-2, Sentinel 3 and SMOS data from the Alfred Wegener Institute.
021
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 04/11/2025
Prompted by a regular reader, I've been experimenting with trying to persuade an LLM to accurately answer some scientific questions about #Arctic sea ice: greatwhitecon.info/2025/11/grok... Preliminary results obtained using xAI via Grok provide compelling empirical proof of Brandolini's Law:
A brief extract from a long conversation with Grok about Arctic sea ice.

I point out to Grok that a supposed reference to Arctic data in the US Department of Energy's "Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate" actually refers to Antarctic data.

In response xAI  asserts that:

"The DOE report explicitly references NSIDC Arctic sea ice data for its ~5% decline estimate since 1980, reflecting annual mean extent trends with noted post-2007 pauses, not Antarctic figures. The graph you shared shows Antarctic October anomalies with a near-flat slope, unrelated to the cited Arctic plot. Conflating hemispheres overlooks distinct regional dynamics—Arctic losses dominate seasonal minima, yet overall variability tempers linear projections—emphasizing empirical scrutiny over dismissal."
020
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 22/06/2025
A largely cloud free satellite image of the central Northwest Passage shows that the prior melt ponds along the southern route have drained, and that melt ponds have now formed on the northern route through McClure Strait: greatwhitecon.info/2025/05/the-... #Arctic #SeaIce #NWP
A “false colour” image of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago on June 21st 2025 from the MODIS instrument on the Terra satellite
010
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 20/06/2025
JAXA/ViSHOP #Arctic #SeaIce extent is now "lowest for the date" in their record going back to 1979: greatwhitecon.info/2025/06/fact...
A graph of JAXA Arctic sea ice extent showing selected years from the 2010s and 2020s, dated June 19th 2025
010
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 14/06/2025
It looks as though there will be an early start to the Northwest Passage sailing season this year: greatwhitecon.info/2025/05/the-... "The #SeaIce in Lancaster Sound and Prince Regent Inlet is breaking up, Bellot Strait is mostly open water, and surface melt has begun across Larsen Sound"
A “false colour” image of the eastern Canadian Arctic Archipelago on June 13th 2025 from the MODIS instrument on the Terra satellite.
032
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 24/05/2025
Yeva has now left Haslar Marina and entered the Solent. The next part of her "delivery voyage" is to head north through the North Sea then across the Arctic Circle near Iceland to the circumnavigation "start/finish line": #EllaInTheArctic 2/n
Yeva's tracking map at 12:30 UTC on May 24th 2025
120
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 24/05/2025
In an hour or two's time Ella Hibbert is due to begin a single handed circumnavigation of the #Arctic in her yacht Yeva, starting in southern England. Much more on the condition of the sea ice in the Northwest Passage and on Yeva's voyage here: greatwhitecon.info/2025/05/the-... #EllaInTheArctic
An image of Ella Hibbert in her yacht YevaThe initial route plan for Ella Hibbert's attempt to circumnavigate the Arctic Ocean in her yacht Yeva during the summer of 2025The Canadian Ice Service's sea ice "stage of development" chart for the Western Arctic on May 19th 2025
130
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 10/05/2025
Good morning @therealpotholer54.bsky.social (BST), Are you already aware that the team behind #ClimateTheMovie are taking @briancoxtalks.bsky.social's image in vain in their most recent contender for the Ig Nobel Prize in climate science? greatwhitecon.info/2025/05/the-... #TheGraphThatLied
000
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 09/05/2025
You may also wish to email your local friendly neighbourhood politician(s) about the matter? Or even tag them in a comment in the space provided for that purpose below or over on LinkedIn? Here's a visualisation of NSIDC #Arctic #SeaIce age data 👇 #ClimateChange #TruthDecay #ClimateBrawl 3/3
A visualisation of NSIDC Arctic sea ice age data for the week of April 1st 2025, which reveals that there is hardly any sea ice more than 4 years old left in the Arctic Ocean

This is no joke!
000
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 08/05/2025
Unfortunately for Tom Nelson, Martin Durkin and the CO2 Coalition, the internet keeps receipts of airbrushing: greatwhitecon.info/2025/05/pete... #ClimateBrawl #ClimateTheMovie Cc: @therealpotholer54.bsky.social @skepticalscience.bsky.social @geraldkutney.bsky.social @thedisproof.bsky.social
132
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 08/05/2025
It seems The Don's climate cuts are going to adversely affect my own work: greatwhitecon.info/2025/05/trum... "If you are a resident of the US you may also wish to contact your local friendly neighbourhood politician(s) about the matter?" #Arctic #SeaIce #SII Cc @nsidc.bsky.social @zacklabe.com
Effective May 5, 2025, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) will decommission its snow and ice data products from the Coasts, Oceans, and Geophysics Science Division (COGS).

As a result, the level of services for affected products below will be reduced to Basic—meaning they will remain accessible but may not be actively maintained, updated, or fully supported.

Sea Ice Index
Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) Data Products
Glacier Photograph Collection
U.S. National Ice Center Arctic Sea Ice Charts and Climatologies in Gridded Format
Gridded Monthly Sea Ice Extent and Concentration, 1850 Onward
World Glacier Inventory

If you rely on these products in your work, research, education, or planning, we invite you to share your story at nsidc@nsidc.org. Your input can help us demonstrate the importance of these data sets and advocate for future support.
020
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 09/02/2025
Here's the January 31st 2025 comparison between PIOMAS and CryoSat-2/SMOS #Arctic sea ice thickness and volume data: greatwhitecon.info/2025/02/fact... On January 31st PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume had reached 17.11 thousand km³, still 2nd lowest for the date in the PIOMAS record.
PIOMAS Arctic sea ice thickness map on January 31st 2025PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume graph on January 31st 2025CryoSat-2/SMOS merged Arctic sea ice thickness map on February 6th 2025CryoSat-2/SMOS merged Arctic sea ice volume graph on January 31st 2025
022
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 07/02/2025
And in particular:
010
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 05/02/2025
Has anybody ever previously surfed the north shore of Spitsbergen in the dark? greatwhitecon.info/2025/02/fact... Do @redbull.com have access to choppers with searchlights? Here's the nowcast 👇 #GWCABBWSC #Arctic big wave #surfing Cc: @seaice.de
021
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 04/02/2025
The waiting period for the 2025 Great White Con #Arctic Basin Big Wave #Surfing Contest has begun. On Saturday afternoon the temperature at the North Pole was above the freezing point of water, and there were 7 meter waves in the Fram Strait. My West Devon alter ego was starting to get paddle fit!
The Earth.nullschool map of air temperature and winds in the Fram Strait at 12:00 UTC on Sunday February 2nd 2025The Earth.nullschool map of wave height in the Fram Strait at 12:00 UTC on Sunday February 2nd 2025
040
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 02/02/2025
I bring you some shocking news from the top of the world: greatwhitecon.info/2025/02/fact... According to the 06Z GFS model run, surface temperatures at the North Pole will rise above the freezing point of fresh water later today. #Arctic #SeaIce extent has already fallen significantly. 🧵👇
112
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 28/01/2025
GFS has been forecasting warm and windy weather in the Central #Arctic this weekend. Including temperatures around zero Celsius at the North Pole on Sunday: greatwhitecon.info/2025/01/fact... It remains to be seen whether this forecast verifies!
GFS 2025-01-27 12Z model run Arctic 2m temperature anomaly forecast for 18:00 UTC on Sunday February 2nd 2025
GFS 2025-01-27 12Z model run Arctic 2m temperature forecast for 18:00 UTC on Sunday February 2nd 2025
GFS 2025-01-27 12Z model run Arctic MSLP/wind speed forecast for 18:00 UTC on Sunday February 2nd 2025
021
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 27/01/2025
At a remarkably late date, Hudson Bay is now (almost!) covered in #SeaIce: greatwhitecon.info/2025/01/fact... Amongst the other peripheral seas, extent in the Sea of Okhotsk is also currently lowest for the date in the #AMSR2 record. Baffin Bay and #JAXA pan #Arctic extent are both 2nd lowest.
A graph of AWI AMSR2 sea ice extent for Hudson Bay on January 26th 2025 - Data via @seaice.deA graph of AWI AMSR2 sea ice extent for the Sea of Okhotsk on January 26th 2025 - Data via @seaice.de
A graph of AWI AMSR2 sea ice extent for Baffin Bay on January 26th 2025 - Data via @seaice.de
A graph of JAXA/ViSHOP Arctic sea ice extent on January 26th 2025
162
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 15/12/2024
November data using #DMI's CICE model 😱 greatwhitecon.info/2024/12/fact...
020
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 13/12/2024
Less "noisy" graphs? 👇 The #NSIDC's monthly #Arctic sea ice extent graph for November. Plus the #DMI's volume graph for November: greatwhitecon.info/2024/12/fact...
010
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 12/12/2024
All of a sudden #Arctic #SeaIce extent is lowest for the date in the 46 year #JAXA record: greatwhitecon.info/2024/12/fact...
JAXA Arctic sea ice extent graph for December 11th 2024, showing that is currently lowest for the date in the 46 year record.
121
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 24/11/2024
The #Arctic #SeaIce refreeze has slowed down over the last few days, and the #JAXA / ViSHOP extent metric is now second lowest for the date in their record that goes back to 1978: greatwhitecon.info/2024/11/fact...
The JAXA/ViSHOP Arctic sea ice extent graph of selected years on November 23rd 2024
010
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 21/11/2024
The mid month #PIOMAS gridded thickness data has just been released: greatwhitecon.info/2024/11/fact... On November 15th #Arctic #SeaIce volume was 8.23 thousand km³, 4th lowest for the date in the PIOMAS record:
PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume graph on November 15th 2024PIOMAS Arctic sea ice thickness map on November 15th 2024
011
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 18/11/2024
Here's our mid month update on #CryoSat2/#SMOS merged #Arctic #SeaIce thickness and volume: greatwhitecon.info/2024/11/fact...
CryoSat-2/SMOS merged Arctic sea ice volume graph on November 15th 2024CryoSat-2/SMOS merged Arctic sea ice thickness map on November 15th 2024
073
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 17/11/2024
Remarkably little sea ice! greatwhitecon.info/2024/07/the-...
“False colour” image of the Parry Channel on September 30th 2024 from the MODIS instrument on the Aqua satellite
020
Snow White @greatwhitecon.info · 17/11/2024
#Arctic #SeaIce has started forming at Nome on the west coast of #Alaska: greatwhitecon.info/2024/11/fact...
Sea ice forming at Nome, Alaska on November 16th 2024National Weather Service chart of sea ice concentration in the Beaufort, Chukchi,and Bering Seas on November 16th 2024
052