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graham steele

@grahamsteele.bsky.social
3.6K followers 1.1K following 1K posts

Assistant Professor, UNC School of Law. Teaching and writing about financial and corporate law. Former Assistant Secretary, US Treasury Department & Democratic chief counsel, Senate Banking Committee. law.unc.edu/people/graham-steele

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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
The relevant part of Trump v Cook:
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Not for nothing, banks have obligations to meet the needs of the communities they serve--meaning ALL members of the community. Admittedly, the requirements are somewhat weak and banks often haven't met them. Nonetheless, it's a legal *obligation,* not some socially conscious "DEI" program
The investigation provides another example of corporate America finding itself in the crosshairs for programs that were encouraged during prior administrations, either by the government or socially conscious investors.

The Trump administration has opened investigations into companies for so-called diversity, equity and inclusion programs. It has also launched attempts to find evidence of “debanking,” where banks closed the accounts of businesses or individuals operating in politically controversial industries, from fossil fuels to firearms.HUD Secretary Scott Turner said that he plans a full investigation into Wells Fargo’s statements. The agency is also reviewing similar initiatives by other banks, according to a senior HUD official.

“Even if Wells Fargo did not violate the law, its practice of dividing Americans based on race is immoral, unethical and un-American,” Turner said. “Wells Fargo and all of its employees that engaged in race-based decision-making should be ashamed of themselves.”
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The purported logic of this statement is truly baffling. Powell, who has protected the Fed independence's from President Trump's political pressure, should demonstrate the Fed's independence by resigning in response to President Trump's political pressure? What?
President Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser called on former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to leave the central bank’s board after an internal report cited management failures in the renovation of its headquarters.

“I think that it’s time for him to move on and to respect the independence of the Fed,” Kevin Hassett, head of the National Economic Council at the White House, said on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures when asked whether Powell should resign.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
During the first Trump administration, Lael Brainard played the role of dissenting voice at the Fed, voting against rules or orders 23 times in 3 years. Barr has already matched her total in less than 2 years. www.yalejreg.com/nc/agency-in...
Even when the VCS role was filled in the first Trump Administration, the Fed returned to its pre-crisis ways, working with the Treasury Department and Congress to roll back aspects of the Dodd-Frank Act reforms—an approach known as “regulatory tailoring.” The lone dissenter during that period was Governor Lael Brainard, who cast 23 dissenting votes to the Fed’s proposed and final rules and merger approvals from 2018-2020. Those tailoring changes contributed to the eventual failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and two other large banks in 2023. Brainard would have to respond to the banking stress from her new position as the director of the White House’s National Economic Council, President Joe Biden’s chief economic policymaker.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The Fed today voted to weaken its bank stress testing regime. I disagree with the substance of the rule, but I want to focus on Governor Barr's dissenting vote. By my count, that's 14 dissents of the 47 rule or order votes taken by the Fed this year. No one else is anywhere close.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Old Glory's issues aren't new. Its CEO testified before the Senate in 2025 about so-called 'conservative debanking.' Old Glory was *already* under a consent order with state and federal regulators from 2024. One senator asked about that ... and blamed the regulators. www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/...
Senator RICKETTS. Mr. Ring, your bank was one of many that was issued a consent order by the FDIC in recent years; is that correct?

Mr. RING. Yes.

Senator RICKETTS. Would you describe your relationship with your regulator to have been collaborative or more combative?

Mr. RING. I think it has gotten better recently. In fact, a great regulator at the FDIC, Joe Meade, who spent 30 years there, recently left, retired. Invested in our bank and he’s now on the board. And I think that has helped. But they, they definitely do not make it easier to be a new and
growing bank; right?

Senator RICKETTS. Well, I see my time’s up, Mr. Chairman. But I do want to just wrap up by saying, again, my experience in the financial services field was that when you had regulators that had a relationship with the regulated community, that actually helped them do their job to find the bad actors. And we all have an interest in really bad actors that are in our
industries. And that when you take an approach where you weaponize Government, it’s actually bad for the regulatory scheme in general because players or, you know, companies who are good, that are trying to stay in business and actually follow the rules are discouraged because the regulators are acting in a political manner.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Regulators had notified Old Glory it was having issues and requested a plan to address its capital problems. The bank... just didn't respond. (That is a huge no-no.) You can find the full enforcement action here: orders.fdic.gov/s/press-rele...
OLD GLORY BANK, ELMORE CITY, OKLAHOMA (“Bank”), being a
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCAPITALIZED insured depository institution as that term is defined in section 38(b)(1) of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act (“Act”), 12 U.S.C. § 1831o(b)(1), and Section 324.403 of the FDIC’s Rules and Regulations, 12 C.F.R. § 324.403, based upon the Consolidated Report of Condition and Income of the Bank as of June 30, 2026, also known as the Call Report, which shows its Leverage Ratio to be 2.69%, and having received a NOTICE OF INTENT TO ISSUE A SUPERVISORY PROMPT CORRECTIVE ACTION DIRECTIVE (“NOTICE”) detailing the actions which will be required to be taken by the Bank and/or the proscriptions which will be imposed on the Bank pursuant to section 38 of the Act, 12 U.S.C. § 1831o, and section 308.201(a) of the FDIC’s Rules of Practice and Procedure, 12 C.F.R. § 308.201(a), AND THE BANK HAVING FAILED TO FILE A RESPONSE TO THE NOTICE PURSUANT TO SECTION 308.201(c) OF THE FDIC’S RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE, 12 C.F.R. § 308.201(c), the FDIC hereby issues this SUPERVISORY PROMPT CORRECTIVE ACTION DIRECTIVE pursuant to the provisions of section 38 of the Act, 12 U.S.C. § 1831o, and section 308.201(d) of the FDIC’s Rules of Practice and Procedure, 12 C.F.R. § 308.201(d).
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Agree completely. This was how I put it at the time... home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
Much of the post-mortem examination of recent events in the banking sector, particularly of the SVB and Signature failures, has focused on institutional mismanagement and supervisory failures.  But blaming these two factors—the individual firms’ inadequate risk management and the lack of effective supervisory oversight of liquidity and interest rate risk—is both true and insufficient.  Regulation also plays a vital role.  Regulation is the mechanism that the banking agencies can use to impose and enforce requirements that are substantive, standardized, and transparent.  Appropriately calibrated regulation establishes clear expectations for supervisors and enforcement staff and provides them with institutional tools to take action against noncompliant firms.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I should add that the report concedes a point that's incontrovertible: the 2018 legislation and "tailoring" regulations weakened rules applicable to banks like SVB. The report treats this as unfair "framing," but many of the more stringent rules would have led to earlier supervisory intervention.
On its face, this was a factual comparison between two regulatory regimes. [Board Staff 1] nevertheless regarded the framing as consequential. Because EGRRCPA and the ensuing tailoring rules had deliberately reduced the requirements applicable to certain firms, asking what would have applied in their absence would necessarily produce a list of additional requirements to which SVB might otherwise have been subject.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Finally, I found this passage about the consensus that failure of a bank of SVB's size would not be systemic ironic. A month before SVB failed, Quarles and I debated this point. I thought it could but he disagreed. In other words, it was foreseeable to some. washingtonmonthly.com/2024/03/15/r...
As [Board Staff 14] observed, before the failure “very many people” would not have expected a $200 billion bank to warrant invocation of the Systemic Risk Exception. Yet SVB did, “because of the context
and the similarity with other business models, the speed of the run, et cetera.” For [Board Staff 14], that experience suggested that “maybe we need to reconsider the slope”: institutions previously regarded as non-systemic proved capable of generating systemic consequences.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The report spends 4 1/2 pages uncritically recounting an interview with Quarles himself. The claim here that tailoring was never about reducing "burden" is simply inaccurate. Several Fed policymakers including the Chair and Vice Chair said explicitly and repeatedly it was about reducing burden.
Interview with past-VCS Randal K. Quarles

Starling explored these issues with past-VCS Randal K. Quarles, the first Senate-confirmed Vice Chair for Supervision and the official most closely associated with the implementation of EGRRCPA and the Board’s subsequent tailoring rules.

Quarles disputed the Barr Report’s characterization of his policy agenda as one of “burden easing.” He described his objective as preserving the safety-and-soundness gains achieved after the Global Financial Crisis while improving the efficiency with which those protections operated.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
It also doesn't refute actual critiques of how tailoring contributed. These points about how it created "step functions" are consistent with my observations at the time about the slow phase-in of liquidity, stress testing, and resolution planning as banks grow: home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
[Board Staff 14] described that fourth conclusion as “poorly understood.” The Barr Report, he explained, “did not say there was a bad law” [EGRRCPA]. Its criticism concerned implementation: “the way it was implemented” created “step functions in how supervision was done” and resulting confusion “as firms move between portfolios.”He acknowledged that SVB’s extraordinarily rapid growth made its transition difficult to manage and that the Federal Reserve may understandably have “struggled a bit” with it.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
To the extent SCOTUS is concerned about pretextual firings, Barr is in a strong position, since it's been an open secret the administration wants him gone so the president can have more influence over the board of governors. news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/...
SVB’s failure occurred less than a year after Barr became the Fed’s top bank cop and critics have said that a pullback in oversight before he joined contributed to the lender’s problems.

Some senior Trump administration officials and allies for months have been laying the groundwork to argue that at the time of the 2023 regional banking crisis, Barr and others at the Fed were distracted by issues not within the central bank’s main purview, according to people familiar with the matter.

Similarly, some Republican lawmakers have argued that, in recent years, Fed officials were too focused on issues like climate policy and matters related to diversity, equity and inclusion – and should have been more focused on core issues at the central bank, including bank supervision.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
The WH may well try to make the case, but it's not clear mere disagreement about some of the causes of SVB's satisfies the (admittedly vague) standard in Cook. Nor do the bank failures themselves suggest any "misconduct" warranting removal 3 years later. www.yalejreg.com/nc/the-uncer...
The majority also addresses the specifics of Governor Cook’s removal by offering some high-level guidelines about the meaning of “for cause” in the FRA. The threshold, we are told, must be “substantial” and is based on the “seriousness of the alleged misconduct, and the extent of any nexus that may exist to the Governor’s professional duties,” but ultimately “cannot be reduced to a precise set of rules.” Unsurprisingly, given the underlying facts in Cook, the Court cautioned against “naiveté,” noting that, without meaningful substantive protections, a “perceived or alleged misstep (past or present) could provide a ready pretext” for removal—and this Sword of Damocles would likely hang over each policy decision made by the members of the Board of Governors. The Court also held that Governors subject to a removal determination are entitled to some “explanation of the evidence at issue, some avenue for a response, and a deadline by which a response would be due.”
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Yes, seems like that’s the White House’s intention, at least.
The White House jumped into the fray as well, a notable development given progressives’ fears that the new review could provide grounds to fire Barr. “President Trump has repeatedly called out mismanagement and incompetence at the Federal Reserve in recent years, and today’s preliminary report on the Fed’s response to Silicon Valley Bank’s failure reinforces that unfortunate reality,” spokesman Kush Desai said. “Then-Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr failed to do his job throughout this debacle, and then put out a report widely regarded as politicized and self-serving, absolving himself of any blame.” He added: “Everyday Americans, investors and financial markets deserve competence and accountability in a Federal Reserve that keeps its eye on the ball.” The criticism, of course, comes shortly after Donald Trump blasted the “very hostile” board, and not Chairman Kevin Warsh, for raising interest rates this week.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
“We don’t want to cross any red lines but we don’t know what the red lines are” seems like a tough needle to thread.
Some top Democratic candidates and their campaigns are quietly trying to avoid crossing any red lines for tech super PACs — even as it’s unclear exactly what those lines would be, after Musk and two of the biggest AI CEOs called for more regulation on the technology last week.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
As I was saying... www.politico.com/news/2026/09...
What’s more, even if successful, the fate of the regulators’ plans is not entirely in their control. The Clarity Act would have provided cover for the agencies’ crypto rules in the courts and from future Democratic administrations that want to crack down on the industry. But without the bill, those risks could loom over the SEC’s and CFTC’s plans.

“With or without legislation, we will act decisively within the SEC’s statutory authority to deliver certainty for American investors and for the entrepreneurs shaping our technological future,” Atkins wrote on social media Wednesday. “Stay tuned.”
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
This may not be the end of the CLARITY Act crypto legislation (there's always the lame duck session). In the meantime, the SEC is already trying to step in with crypto-friendly rules. But under West Virginia v EPA, courts should be skeptical when agencies enact regulations Congress has rejected.
Under our precedents, this is a major questions case. In arguing that Section 111(d) empowers it to substantially restructure the American energy market, EPA “claim[ed] to discover in a long-extant statute an unheralded power” representing a “transformative expansion in [its] regulatory authority.” Utility Air, 573 U. S., at 324. It located that newfound power in the vague language of an “ancillary provision[]” of the Act, Whitman, 531 U. S., at 468, one that was designed to function as a gap filler and had rarely been used in the preceding decades. And the Agency’s discovery allowed it to adopt a regulatory program that Congress had conspicuously and repeatedly declined to enact itself.
Brown & Williamson, 529 U. S., at 159–160; Gonzales, 546 U. S., at 267–268; Alabama Assn., 594 U. S., at ___, ___ (slip op., at 2, 8). Given these circumstances, there is every reason to “hesitate before concluding that Congress” meant to confer on EPA the authority it claims under Section 111(d). Brown & Williamson, 529 U. S., at 159–160.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I continue to believe that succumbing to political pressure is not the best way for the Fed to preserve its independence.
Some who think the Fed should never have cut last year and should have already begun raising think this is the wrong week to start. Michael Strain, a conservative economist at the American Enterprise Institute, said he would have voted to raise rates in July, but if the case wasn’t strong enough to move then, not enough has happened since to justify acting weeks before an election.

He worries a hike now would trigger a response from Trump that severely damages the political consensus that has protected the Fed’s independence since the 1990s. “The unfortunate reality for the Fed is that it cannot ignore the fact that President Trump is extremely hostile to this important institution,” Strain said. He thinks investors would get over another hold faster than the Fed would get over a fight with Trump.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Alito joined decisions blocking EPA from regulating power plant emissions, ED forgiving federal student loans, and HHS imposing a pandemic eviction moratorium. Now he says USPS has "broad authority" to regulate mail-in ballots. This is why people don't take the major questions doctrine seriously.
Excerpt of Alito's dissent in the mail-in ballots case: "That Hail Mary pass is unlikely to be successfully completed here. The Postal Service has broad authority to..."Excerpt of Alito's dissent in the mail-in ballots case: "regulate the mail. It holds the “general powers” to “adopt, amend, and repeal such rules and regulations, not inconsistent with this title, as may be necessary in the execution of its functions under this title and such other functions as may be assigned to [it] under any provisions of law outside of this title.” 39 U. S. C. §401(2). Through this provision,Congress has “broadly empowered [the Postal Service] to adopt rules and regulations.” Postal Service v. Council of Greenburgh Civic Assns., 453 U. S. 114, 123 (1981). ThePostal Service also possesses the power “to provide for the collection, handling, transportation, delivery, forwarding, returning, and holding of mail, and for the disposition of undeliverable mail.” 39 U. S. C. §404(a)(1)."
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
I found this detail remarkable. I can't even think of what the Dem equivalent to this would be, but it's not normal Treasury Secretary behavior. And yet, there's seemingly no attempt to have Treasury explain why a Pizzagater was traveling with the Secretary?
But upon taking office, the Treasury secretary showed he was going to have a different relationship with the press. When Bessent traveled to Ukraine in February 2025, he did not do it with most of the normal Treasury beat reporters in tow. One of the few members of the media who did go along was Jack Posobiec, the Pizzagate figure turned conservative influencer.

That was the first sign that things would be different from Trump’s first term, when then-Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin regularly brought the press along on the department’s plane, fielding on- and off-the-record questions about fiscal policy during flights (though he stopped after Mnuchin’s use of a private government jet became a focal point of media coverage).
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
JPMorgan reportedly cut back its financing for hedge funds that are capturing increasing market share in the bond market. It illustrates one of the conflicts--the Supreme Court called them "subtle hazards"--of banks lending and trading and why Congress enacted the Glass-Steagall Act in 1933.
Excerpt from Investment Company Institute v. Camp:

Another potential hazard that very much concerned Congress arose from the plain conflict between the promotional interest of the investment banker and the obligation of the commercial banker to render disinterested investment advice. Senator Bulkley stated:

"Obviously, the banker who has nothing to sell to his depositors is much better qualified to advise disinterestedly and to regard diligently the safety of depositors than the banker who uses the list of depositors in his savings department to distribute circulars concerning the advantages of this, that, or the other investment on which the bank is to receive an originating profit or an underwriting profit or a distribution profit or a trading profit or any combination of such profits."
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Warsh also says loan underwriting standards are "on the easier end of their historical range." Micro- or macroprudential regulation can be a 'scalpel' to address potential risks, relative to the monetary policy 'sledgehammer.' Instead, the Trump administration is deregulating the financial sector.
Credit spreads on corporate bonds and leveraged loans are near the low ends of their historical ranges, and issuance volumes in these markets have been quite strong this year. Looking beyond fixed-income markets to the banking business, in the July Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices, banks tell us that standards for commercial and industrial loans are on the easier end of their historical range. That helps explain the growth we've seen this year in those loans. Credit and loan markets are showing few signs of policy restraint.Headline from yesterday's Financial Times: "US bank regulators to narrow enforcement focus to financial risks" 

Subhed: "Overhaul is part of a wider deregulatory push under the Trump administration"
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Two observations about the parts of Warsh's speech touching on my world. First, I agree "money matters." The problem with current policy is the Fed and Trump administration are encouraging the creation of private digital money. This will make inflation and financial stability harder to manage.
Sixth, money matters. It's not fashionable these days, but my view is that money has something important to do with monetary policy.13 We should pay attention to money created by the central bank and money that comes from the banking and financial systems.14 It's true that financial innovations and other factors alter the mechanics that link the monetary base, the velocity of money, and the broader economy. But that is scarcely a reason to ignore the ultimate effects of money on financial conditions and prices.Headline from this morning's Wall Street Journal: "Trump Family’s New Crypto Bank Is Backed by Abu Dhabi Sheikh"

Subhed: "The Emirati ‘spy sheikh’ backs a 49% stake in the entity behind the new World Liberty bank"
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
This is basically the New Yorker cartoon come to life.
An adult sitting around a fire in a post-apocolyptic hellscape, telling a group of children: "Yes, the planet got destroyed. But for a beautiful moment in time we created a lot of value for shareholders."
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Here’s the explanation of how the distinctions between Treasury and Fed operations mean expanding buybacks to reduce stress would actually drive *up* borrowing costs.
While we believe it is important that we retain some flexibility in providing incremental liquidity support to certain sectors of the Treasury market, it is important we make it clear at the outset that these buybacks are not intended to ameliorate periods of acute market stress. Unlike the Federal Reserve System, which can finance purchases of securities by creating reserves, each dollar of buybacks needs to be financed with a dollar of Treasury issuance, all else equal. This limits our ability to rapidly increase the size of buybacks to a level potentially necessary to alleviate market stress without resulting in significant costs for the taxpayer, as a corresponding rapid rise in Treasury issuance could materially increase our financing costs during these periods.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
It’s clear that the Trump administration lacks a coherent worldview of US financial power. Some want to retrench from it, others want to expand it, and none really appreciate what it takes to maintain the integrity of a dollar-based global financial system. www.justsecurity.org/125738/what-...
The volatile combination of simultaneous efforts to expand dollarization, increase protectionism, and push deregulation suggests that the Trump administration lacks sufficient appreciation for, or really any coherent theory of, effective and sustainable financial statecraft. Couple these moves with Trump’s efforts to bring the previously independent central bank under his control and it will ultimately lead to a loss of confidence in U.S. economic power, diminishing the role of U.S. financial institutions and markets as global safe havens.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
We have endured more than a decade of specious complaints about "political debanking" of fossil fuels, crypto, and January 6ers. And now the Trump administration has constructed a financial dragnet to investigate labor and climate groups engaged in protected First Amendment activity.
In one instance, officials used administrative subpoenas to obtain more than three years of financial records from the Sunrise Movement, an environmental action group, and a labor union, the Communications Workers of America. That time frame went well beyond the civil unrest in Minnesota, which was prompted by the deployment of thousands of immigration agents to the state during the winter.

In another, investigators scrutinized three years’ worth of wire transfers made by the nation’s biggest health care workers union, the Service Employees International Union, in what they referred to as an inquiry into “domestic terrorist financing.”
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
FWIW, this was my take on the the unresolved issues (both legal and practical) after the Supreme Court's decision. www.yalejreg.com/nc/the-uncer...
What the Court Can’t Fix: The White House’s Continued Efforts to Remake the Fed

If the Court hoped that establishing a “substantial” bar to removing Fed Governors, accompanied by some minimal procedural guardrails, would halt the White House’s attempts to influence the Fed, it seems unlikely to have its intended effect. Before the opinion was even issued, the Court was already playing catch-up with a White House that has continued to seek out ways to remake the Fed in the President’s image.

During the pendency of the case, the White House and Treasury Department also reportedly sought to influence the selection process for the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in the hopes of installing a preferred candidate. The reason the Atlanta Fed opening exists is due to concerns that the Board of Governors would block previous President Raphael Bostic’s re-appointment for fear that Bostic’s violations of investment restrictions would open avenues for renewed White House criticism. The desire to avoid potential controversy also led Biden-appointed Fed Governor Adriana Kugler to step down last summer after her husband violated Fed ethics policies.In contrast to the heightened sensitivities of these non-aligned Fed Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents, Trump appointee Michelle Bowman is facing no apparent White House pressure for having violated the Fed’s communications blackout policy to attend an invite-only event with Wall Street investors. This is the political environment the Fed is currently operating in: those who are disfavored by the White House live under the threat of pretextual removal controversies, while the White House’s allies face little-to-no removal pressure, even when they engage in actions that give rise to a clear appearance of impropriety.

The Court’s new facts-and-circumstances test for for-cause removal seeks to deter pretextual removals, thereby preventing the President from “turn[ing] for-cause protection into little more than at-will employment.” Yet, these recent experiences illustrate how Cook is unlikely—and cannot reasonably be expected—to remove the Sword of Damocles hanging over the Fed. Indeed, there are media reports that the White House is already contemplating ways to take another run at removing Fed Governors—both Governor Cook and potentially also Governor Jerome Powell—in a manner that would comply with the letter, if not the spirit, of Cook.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
The Treasury Secretary comes to the defense of the Fed Chair and criticizes "stenographers posing as journalists," including one of the best Fed reporters working today.
Screenshot of a tweet from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: "One of the highlights of the Warsh Fed has been watching stenographers posing as journalists, like the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos, reduced to reporting Fed backroom gossip because they’re incapable of performing real economic or monetary policy analysis without being spoon-fed."
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
FIMA is a useful illustration of the issues with Warsh's view that the Fed's non-monetary policy functions aren't independent. Is FIMA monetary policy? Financial stability? International finance? "Public monies" (bc it involves the Treasury market)? These functions aren't always clearly separable.
Second, Fed independence is at its peak in the operational conduct of monetary policy. That degree of independence does not extend to the full range of its congressionally mandated functions. Fed officials are not entitled to the same special deference in their stewardship of public monies . . . or in bank regulatory and supervisory policy . . . or in areas affecting international finance, among other matters.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Some truly amazing polling results about the unpopularity of crypto. Completely out of step with how much attention crypto gets in DC.
A bar graph showing the crypto industry with a -67% favorability, behind only ICE and the NRA. Also, a word cloud associating crypto with “scams,” “fraud,” and “fake money.”Bar graph showing crypto-backed candidates with a -68% favorability rating with Democratic voters.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
This under-counts how many members of Treasury leadership have left/been forced out. The department’s top sanctions and money laundering official was also forced out over a rule requiring banks to collect immigration information. Very bad sign about the state of things at Treasury right now.
Kies will become the latest senior Senate-confirmed Treasury official to leave the department after a relatively short tenure. 

Billy Long lasted less than two months as IRS commissioner, part of a carousel in the top tax-administration post. 
Michael Faulkender was deputy secretary for less than five months. 

Jonathan McKernan, an undersecretary, is leaving after less than a year. Brian Morrissey, the agency’s general counsel, left less than eight months after being confirmed.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
This administration is trying further their deportation by using bank regulators to pressure banks to shut certain immigrants out of the financial system. It’s akin to a modern form of redlining against immigrant communities.
Banks aren’t prohibited from offering accounts or loans to undocumented immigrants, but the changes undertaken by regulators following Trump’s executive order appear intended to make it harder for them to justify to regulators why they might be doing so. Such warnings tend to put a chill on bank activity.

A prior warning by the Treasury Department directed banks to be on the lookout for employers that might be committing payroll fraud by employing undocumented immigrants. Regulators have also pushed financial institutions and payments companies to reconsider the risks of providing credit cards and mortgages to undocumented immigrants.

The crackdown on serving undocumented immigrants comes at the same time that the Trump administration and regulators are also investigating banks for allegedly “debanking” clients for political and religious reasons. Trump signed another executive order on that topic seeking to uncover discrimination against conservatives.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Once upon a time, the Fed’s task force on “productivity and jobs” would’ve included a labor representative. It speaks volumes about the current Fed leadership that the task force instead includes Trump-supporting, AI-boosting venture capitalist Marc Andreessen.
Productivity and Jobs: Assess the economic impact of new general-purpose technologies, including artificial intelligence, to inform the Federal Reserve's policy judgments.

Marc Andreessen, cofounder and general partner, Andreessen Horowitz

Charles I. Jones, professor of economics, Stanford University, currently on leave at Anthropic

Asha Sharma, executive vice president and XBOX CEO, Microsoft Corp.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Yes, I also noted this dynamic last year. Importantly, this isn’t pure speculation. We have precedents where R holdovers have made mischief and D nominees have been blockaded by the Senate. www.yalejreg.com/nc/the-real-...
Given these experiences, what recourse would a future Democratic President have when there are Republican holdovers leading various agencies and a Republican-controlled Senate that refuses to confirm the President’s nominees?

During the first year of the Biden Administration, for example, the Trump-nominated Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), Jelena McWilliams, attempted to block the FDIC’s board majority from voting on policy initiatives consistent with President Joe Biden’s agenda. The Democratic appointees to the FDIC board sought to bring those measures to a vote, prompting a dispute which ultimately resulted in McWilliams’ resignation and replacement with the next board member in the line of succession, Martin Gruenberg. (The Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel later determined that McWilliams was wrong on the law, and the Democratic board members were correct that a majority of FDIC board members, not the chair, have the power to determine the board’s agenda.)

If those events were to repeat themselves, a President who lacks the ability to confirm a replacement will be stuck with a choice between keeping a prior President’s nominees or removing that nominee and leaving a non-functioning agency without political leadership. In such a scenario, the Vacancies Act provides limited value if all nominees requiring Senate confirmation—especially to multi-member commissions—are being blockaded.These developments foreshadow a post-Slaughter future where Presidents—or at least Presidents of a certain party—can use the appointment power to control both single-director and multi-member agencies, thereby undermining the sort of reasoned policymaking that Congress and the courts have said is both constitutional and desirable. Due to the Senate’s undemocratic features, the most likely scenario is that Presidents of the Democratic Party will be stymied by a Republican-controlled Senate if they try to rebuild the capacity of these agencies. It is unclear whether and to what extent agencies will operate with bipartisan, multi-member leadership—or even any functional leadership at all.

Again, the Court in Seila Law v. CFPB said the removal power is essential to ensuring a President is not “saddled with a holdover [agency official] from a competing political party who is dead set against [their] agenda.” Yet, the same conservative Justices who wrote those words could make the situation worse, not better, by overruling Humphrey’s Executor.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
This is well put. Here's how I framed it in this blog post. www.yalejreg.com/nc/inconsist...
In Cook, many of the Justices spoke deferentially about Congress’s determination that the Fed should be structurally protected from certain kinds of partisan influence due to the Fed’s important role stewarding the financial system. These concerns are equally applicable to various functions of other financial regulatory agencies. Even in the case of the Fed, some monetary policy functions could be insulated by the Court’s decision in Cook, but regulatory independence could still be functionally eroded by other means.

And yet, some Justices seem unconcerned by the likelihood that such an outcome could result from making the heads of other financial agencies removable at will in Slaughter. This is the central paradox of the Court’s sui generis treatment of the Fed. Some Justices seem to believe that decisions of economic stewardship are so important that they must, by and large, be subject to partisan control. At the same time, they also hold the position that the Fed’s functions are too important to be left to partisan control.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Importantly, the practical import of the Cook decision's Fed exception remains to be seen. That's because Trump's Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, has said he believes--contra most Fed chairs before him--that the Fed is *not* entirely independent in all its functions. www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
Second, Fed independence is at its peak in the operational conduct of monetary policy. That degree of independence does not extend to the full range of its congressionally mandated functions. Fed officials are not entitled to the same special deference in their stewardship of public monies . . . or in bank regulatory and supervisory policy . . . or in areas affecting international finance, among other matters.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
An especially strange take because Warsh has said that he believes, contra most chairs before him, that the Fed is *not* entirely independent in all its functions. www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
Second, Fed independence is at its peak in the operational conduct of monetary policy. That degree of independence does not extend to the full range of its congressionally mandated functions. Fed officials are not entitled to the same special deference in their stewardship of public monies . . . or in bank regulatory and supervisory policy . . . or in areas affecting international finance, among other matters.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
I think Thomas's dissent is actually right insofar as he argues that the Court's decision in Slaughter *should* be applicable to the Fed, which exercises a significant amount of regulatory power. Instead, the majority relies on an "ahistorical analogy" to create a special Fed exception.
The Court today upholds the constitutionality of a limita-
tion on the President’s ability to remove a principal execu-
tive officer for only the third time in American history. Its
constitutional reasoning consists of two paragraphs. TheCourt does not dispute that members of the Federal Re-
serve Board exercise (a great deal of ) federal executive
power. It does not dispute that any person who exercises
federal executive power must be freely removable by the
President. And it does not dispute that its holding today
contravenes those principles by preventing the President
from freely removing members of the Federal Reserve
Board. Instead, the Court endorses a contradiction: “the
Constitution vests the whole executive power in the Presi-
dent alone,” Slaughter, 609 U. S., at ___ (slip op., at 21) (in-
ternal quotation marks omitted), but the Board can exercise
executive power “independen[t] from Presidential control,”
ante, at 22.
The Court’s constitutional reasoning depends entirely on
an ahistorical analogy between the Board and the First and
Second Banks of the United States. See ante, at 22–23. The
problem for the Court is that the First and Second Banks
were banks with no executive power, whereas the Board is
unquestionably a federal agency that wields considerable
executive power. See supra, at 3–9. The Board does not
follow in “our Nation’s tradition of central banking” at all.
Ante, at 9; see supra, at 3–6. It is not a “bank,” ante, at 23,
but a novel “federal agency” with “broad powers affecting
the entire banking and currency system,” Cushman 153;
see supra, at 4–5. The “‘founders of our Government,’”
ante, at 22, thought that distinction was significant. Alt-
hough the Court attempts to imply otherwise, ibid., it does
not deny that the First and Second Banks of the United
States exercised no executive power.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Justice Kavanaugh gives a nod to the historical arguments, but his concurrence is (unsurprisingly) pretty clearly motivated by the economic consequences of diminishing Fed independence.
I agree with the Court, moreover, that we should not
leave open the question whether the Federal Reserve can
remain an independent agency in the wake of Slaughter.
After Slaughter, there is a clear choice: Either the Federal
Reserve may remain independent (with the Governors
removable for cause, not at will), or it may not. Leaving
that question open would create significant uncertainty
about whether the Court might soon eliminate the Federal
Reserve’s independence, and thereby expose the Federal
Reserve to political influences and jeopardize the efficacy of
U. S. monetary policy. Even temporary uncertainty about
the status of the Federal Reserve could spark political
upheaval, including confusion about whether the President
could immediately remove multiple Governors at will, as
well as turmoil in the U. S. and world economies.
I would not go down that road. I would not risk
destabilizing the U. S. economy just so that we can further
mull over an issue that, in various permutations, we havebeen thinking about for many years. As the Court’s opinion
explains and the Government agrees, the Federal Reserve
occupies a unique role in the U. S. Government and
maintains critical responsibility for the stability and
success of the U. S. and world economies. See ante, at 1–6.
Most importantly for constitutional purposes, the Federal
Reserve follows in a distinct historical tradition of central
bank independence that has long coexisted with Article II.
That history of course carries great weight in Article II
cases. See Youngstown Sheet & Tube Co. v. Sawyer, 343
U. S. 579, 610–611 (1952) (Frankfurter, J., concurring); id.,
at 634–638 (Jackson, J., concurring). In my view, in light
of that historical practice and precedent, the Federal
Reserve may continue as an independent agency after
Slaughter. If the Federal Reserve’s for-cause removal
protections are to be eliminated, that change must occur
through the legislative process.1
In short, like the Court, I see no good reason here to
unsettle a critical constitutional question that has long
been settled and that should remain settled.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Some might say it's cynical to think SCOTUS is protecting the Fed because of its affect on financial markets and capital. But the majority says pretty clearly in Cook that it needs to get to the merits to avoid "sow[ing] doubt" about one of the world’s "most important financial institutions."
In this extraordinary case, we have had the benefit of not only amici and oral argument but months of internal consultation and deliberation. We see no reason to leave the public in limbo, or to sow doubt as to the status of one of our Nation’s (and the world’s) most important financial institutions. Although we appreciate that others may see matters differently, we would not so quickly unsettle this “special arrangement
sanctioned by history.”
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Recalling how the Chief Justice once used the shadow docket to block an EPA rule because he was offended by EPA officials’ press statements. So according to SCOTUS, the President’s personal animus isn’t relevant to the government’s motivations but bland statements by bureaucrats are.
Then, in June 2015, the court ruled against the Obama administration in a case involving mercury emissions. The next day, an E.P.A. official, Janet McCabe, made what now looks like a tactical error. She issued a statement that, according to the papers, offended the chief justice and struck him as an attempt to sideline the court.The chief justice cited an unusual source for that last point, one that would not ordinarily figure in a Supreme Court opinion: an interview with the BBC in which the E.P.A. administrator at the time, Gina McCarthy, had said “we are baking” the Clean Power Plan “into the system.”
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
I've said it before, but the renovation was the chosen line of attack against Powell because Republicans had run that play against the CFPB in its early years to some success. Important lesson about the need to nip bad-faith attacks in the bud because you never know where they'll lead.
The book dives into one line that Trump chose not to cross in his second term: Trying to fire then-Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Instead, Trump launched a campaign last year to try to make Powell’s life miserable. An aide told the authors at the time that Trump was not going to fire Powell, he was just going to torture him.

Haberman and Swan recount how Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought brought Trump a plan to attack Powell over the renovations of the Federal Reserve building, which led to an extraordinary visit by the president to tour the site last July.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
A remarkably candid assessment from Janet Yellen of the Fed’s regulatory and supervisory failures from a retrospective on Jay Powell’s tenure. She says “crisis management is not a substitute for prevention” which “requires strengthening both bank supervision and broader financial regulation.”
Sound supervision is mostly invisible: It is the crisis that does not happen, the institution that does not fail, the vulnerability addressed before it becomes systemic. Those successes do not hold press conferences. That makes the culture of supervision—the willingness to push back, to escalate, to act in a timely way, to accept the discomfort of being unpopular with the supervised—all the more important. The Fed’s own post-mortem on SVB identified a supervisory culture in which the burden of proof for escalating concerns had drifted too high, in which examiners were reluctant to act against rapidly growing institutions, and in which formal findings did not reflect the actual risks being observed. My predecessor and our colleagues identified this same issue in our review of the 2008 crisis and took steps to address it. During both Trump terms the focus has instead been on financial deregulation and reduced supervisory intensity. The 2019 regulatory changes diminished the liquidity stress testing and interest rate risk scrutiny facing a bank the size of SVB. I worry that the continuing deregulatory push may be further undermining a culture that has not sustainably improved. These problems predate Powell, and they remain serious.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Meme of Lucille Bluth in the series Arrested Development saying: "It's One Banana, Michael. What Could It Cost, 10 Dollars?"
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Unsurprisingly, the previous administration took a different view of this issue. home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
In the second category, the use of flawed internal models can cause significant model risk management issues.  As the financial crisis of 2007-09 and other failures of financial institutions, like Long-Term Capital Management, have shown, the overreliance on faulty risk models can have financial stability implications.  As a result, the post-crisis prudential regulatory framework has sought to move toward more standardized risk measurements.  It is important to consider these historical lessons regarding the broader use of models by financial institutions and regulators as we evaluate specific use cases for AI models.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
It’s here. The Trump Administration has issued an Executive Order that includes a requirement for banks to collect customers’ citizenship information. www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
(ii)  institutions maintain the authority, where warranted by other risk indicators or supervisory concerns, to obtain additional information necessary to resolve material compliance concerns, including information relevant to whether account holders possess lawful immigration status and employment authorization in the United States when such information is relevant to assessing risks associated with fraud, identity misrepresentation, sanctions evasion, or other illicit financial activity, as part of a risk-based customer due diligence program.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
I’d like to understand the thought process behind going out of his way to praise crypto. There are no votes to be won from it, he has a background in finance so presumably knows better on the substance, and he’s self-funding so doesn’t need to worry as much about super PAC spending. Why do this?
LNG. You would alt the AI regulatory environment. What are we controlling? Other than the state of California, I guess.

No one, it'll never be one person controlling it. I think the one that we should control is—and there's such a fine line between control and alt—but I think that, in finance, we should control the way crypto is used.

Oh, interesting. Tell me more.

I just think that this is a technology, which I'm fine with, but I just think it's one of those things where we need to make sure that there are things to protect people who are investing in these tokens.

I think the industry agrees with that. They've spent a long time saying, “Stop trying to outlaw us. Give us regulations so that we can build our businesses.” Which I'm totally fine with, and that's what I would describe as control. I think control's the wrong word because you never control something. You basically have regulations that make sense and protect unsophisticated people from damage.
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graham steele @grahamsteele.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
In 2024, the CFPB issued an “open banking” rule that would have given consumers the power to prevent this kind of third-party data harvesting. But Trump’s CFPB repealed that rule, so here we are: AI companies are scraping data from people’s bank accounts.
The final rule strengthens protections for consumers’ data by:

Banning bait-and-switch data harvesting: Third parties can only collect, use, or retain data to deliver the product the consumer requested. They cannot secretly collect, use, or retain consumers’ data for their own unrelated business reasons – for example, by offering consumers a loan using consumer data that they also use for targeted advertising. The rule does not prohibit any particular uses of data, but it requires that all use be driven by what is necessary to deliver the product sought by the consumer.
Creating revocation and deletion rights: When a person revokes access, the rule requires that data access end immediately, and deletion would be the default practice. Access can be maintained for no more than one year, absent express reauthorization. To prevent “dark patterns” from emerging, the process to revoke access must be simple and straightforward.
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