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Michael Goode

@goodetrades.com
1.5K followers 305 following 6.7K posts

Penny stock trader. Short seller. Aficionado of stock fraud. AM in Cognitive Psychology. || Terms of use: goodetrades.com/terms-of-use

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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 28/09/2026
"Getty Images ($GETY) is discussing fresh financing with lenders as it seeks to shore up liquidity, with a debtor-in-possession loan among the options under consideration, Bloomberg reported Monday, citing people familiar with the matter." I love the initial wrong-way move on this news. // I'm short
1 minute candlestick chart showing GETY popping from $0.14 to $0.16 and then dropping to $0.093
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 25/09/2026
It took 5 years but now I'm on the Cayuse Vineyards mailing list. I have truly made it in this world. Now to pray that they let me buy some Bionic Frog
Wine bottle saying "Bionic Frog" with a cartoon frog
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 24/09/2026
Thanks to Opus 5.5 for giving me more stats with little effort but this really bothers me now -- the drawdown spike should be a % of the graph area (so 50% drawdown hits the middle of chart area). Fixed that and lol
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 24/09/2026
Is a 62% return with a 0.6% max drawdown good? Too bad this stuff isn't scaleable otherwise I could lever up 10x and get really rich with little risk.
Chart showing maximum 0.6% drawdown on 62% return on investment this year.
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 20/09/2026
My precious 💕 RAM. LLMs have driven up the price but they also allowed me to build my own backtester which is the only reason I need it.
128 GB of ddr4 RAM
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 05/09/2026
This is good too
The Pathfinder non-alcoholic spirit
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 02/09/2026
I don't know if this is a bad sign or a good sign: 100 coin bags of Trump $1 coins sold out (but not 25-coin rolls) www.usmint.gov/semiquincent...
Semiquincentennial President Donald J. Trump 2026 $1 Coin Rolls & Bags
Philadelphia (P)
Select Product
100-Coin Bag (P)
$154.50
Add to Wish List
Currently Unavailable
Be alerted if this product is back in stock.

Item Number: 26SQBP
Item Limits 
Mintage Limit: None
Product Limit: 50,000
Household Order Limit: 2
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 24/08/2026
Found the menu! Weirdly enough they stuck it in the goody bag with some herbal caramels, a cookie, their custom granola, a Smyth corkscrew, and some custom coasters
S M Y T H   S M Y T H
CELEBRATING tO YEARS
C E L E B R A 1 I N G 1 0 Y E A R S
Truffle ft Buttercream Tare
.Sweet Razor Clam l .
M u s s e l & H a z e l n u t P r a l i n e * \ >c o 2016 lLes Ursulas’ | Roses d c Jeanne
Malted Putaio Uni Ikura - Don
20 iG Grand Cru Milica ime 1:g|v Ourict
Smoked Ovsrer , Burnt Beef, Truffle Roy ^le
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20 if, LClos Saintc 1 1 unr ] Trimbach
G e o d u c k f t L S a k c L e e s f o ero
'Squeezing livcrv Lasr B i t O u t o f S u m m e r* 2016 ‘Aequorin Antica 1 LLL 1 a
Sungold Tomato J ’tjfii 1 ft Caviar 2016 Goldgrube Spa rl esc | VoUc.nw eider
Spicy Tuna Sandwich I -.- voi Morau
P a r f a i t, G r a v e n s r e i n A p p l e,
p i s t a c h i o f t F a r m G r e e n s
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Duck liver
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2016 Savenntcres lClos du Papillon1 1 Domaine du Close !
L a m b C u r r y nran Vm
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Sweet Potato & Corona Beans t hriMopher Koscow
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[ .ami) Sweetbreads , Summer Marmite ft l egumes
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The ice of the day is Earl Grey
t o s h a r e w i t h y o u r f r i e n d s, i f y o u l i k e T even iMor .m
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Licorice Egg Yolk Tart A U G U S T 2 2, 2 0 2 6 S’
AUGUST 22, 2026
m . raHSEh!
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 24/08/2026
One nice touch is that all the paired wines were also 10 years old. I will way that this is the most dressed up I've ever been to go to a 10 year old's birthday party
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 24/08/2026
So much good food. This is the second half of the meal
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 24/08/2026
Had a great dinner at Smyth in Chicago on Saturay: 10th anniversary dinner. This is also the first year they are the sole 3 Michelin star restaurant in the city. See alt text for attempted descriptions (they didn't give a menu at the end). Way too much food and too rich but wonderful time.
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 11/08/2026
The photos after the first two in this skeet are from the last breakfast. www.milkweedinn.com
liver mouse tartnasturtium flower and radishfreshly-fried sourdough brioche donut with sugar and cinnamon. Best donut everpickled vegetable, smoked country ham, duck egg, and eggs benedict with fresh bread
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 11/08/2026
If you can ever get yourself to the middle of the Hiawatha Forest near Rapid River, Michigan (in the Upper Peninsula), do so and spend a weekend at the Milkweed Inn. Pics from our tasting menu dinner last Saturday
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 07/08/2026
Happy $QVCPQ bankruptcy plan effectiveness day to all who celebrate! The only time a smart short wants his stock to go to zero is when he is certain that DTC will delete it // Disclosure: no longer short $QVCPQ or at least I won't be after the new DTC instruction tomorrow morning

 
UNITED STATES BANKRUPTCY COURT 
SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF TEXAS 
HOUSTON DIVISION 
 )  
In re: ) Chapter 11 
 )  
QVC GROUP, INC., et al.,1 ) Case No. 26-90447 (ARP) 
 )  
 )  
   Debtors. ) (Jointly Administered) 
 )  
NOTICE OF OCCURRENCE  
OF THE EFFECTIVE DATE OF  
THE SECOND AMENDED JOINT PREPACKAGED  
PLAN OF REORGANIZATION OF QVC GROUP, INC. AND ITS  
DEBTOR AFFILIATES PURSUANT TO CHAPTER 11 OF THE BANKRUPTCY CODE 
On July 20, 2026, the Honorable Alfredo R. Peréz, United States Bankruptcy Judge for the 
United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas (the “Court”), entered the Order 
(I) Approving the Debtors’ Disclosure Statement for the Joint Prepackaged Plan of 
Reorganization  of  QVC  Group,  Inc.  and  Its  Debtor  Affiliates  Pursuant  to  Chapter  11  of  the  
Bankruptcy Code, (II) Confirming the Second Amended Joint Prepackaged Plan of Reorganization 
of QVC Group, Inc. and Its Debtor Affiliates Pursuant to Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code, and 
(III) Granting Related Relief [Docket No. 722] confirming the Second Amended Joint 
Prepackaged  Plan  of  Reorganization  of  QVC  Group,  Inc.  and  Its  Debtor  Affiliates  Pursuant  to  
Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code [Docket No. 389] (the “Plan”) of the above-captioned debtors 
(the “Debtors”).2  
The Effective Date of the Plan occurred on August 6, 2026
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 04/08/2026
It's observation selection effects all the way down
Famous drawing of a WW2 fighter plane with red dots indicating where the damage was on planes that returned. The planes that were shot down had damage where the red dots weren't (because they never returned to be examined). This image illustrates the survivorship bias article on Wikipedia.
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 20/07/2026
Kimi comes back with a strong win. In the words of Fable Max (see image). That good review was by Kimi 3 max. Fable had found no major problems.
Evaluation: both majors are real — I verified them independently, and both escaped my review
Bottom line: this is a high-quality review. Major 1 is confirmed and is the must-fix — it's the only finding from either review that weakens a shipped safety property. Major 2 is confirmed end-to-end, including the exact test counts. The coverage-gap list is accurate on every point I checked. Most minors are accurate, a few with severity I'd adjust down because the substrate predates this commit.
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 18/07/2026
Dril Tweet: issuing correction on a previous post of mine, regarding the terror group isil. You do not, under any circumstances, gotta hand it to them
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 17/07/2026
This spec is on revision 30 and comprises take profit and stop loss orders for my trading bot. Opus 4.8 Max evaluated the reports of each LLM. Kimi found no major bugs while ChatGPT and Claude both found 2+ major bugs. Fable did the best job of finding real, severe bugs. GPT 5.6 was 2nd
Kimi found essentially zero bugs ("no normative discrepancy," everything "verified conformant")
ChatGPT found 2 High + 2 Medium + 1 Low
Claude Fable found 3 P1 + 4 P2 + spec gap + ~25 P3 (via 6 parallel sub-reviewers)Claude Fable 5.0 — most thorough, most real problems, by a wide margin.

Method: six parallel reviewers on disjoint spec sections, coordinator re-verified every P1/P2 in code, continued the house numbering (N36+) after cross-checking the two prior reviews so nothing is re-reported. Routed every finding to an owner.
Yield: all three P1s confirmed real, both sampled P2s confirmed, a confirmed spec-model gap (N52), an accurate P3 tail — zero false positives in my verified sample. Also the only report with a deep test-suite audit (e.g. it caught that the AC19 poll-shrink cell asserts coveredQty but never that the stop was resized — a real regression blind spot; SPIKE_EXIT_STOP_ADJUSTED is asserted by name in zero files).
Weaknesses (real, but minor): two mislabeled call sites in N40, "per-half timestamp" in N52 is actually a single per-entry stamp, and N42's severity is generous (P2 → really P3). Correct conclusions, occasionally imperfect anchoring. It's also the longest report.
ChatGPT 5.6 Sol — a genuine middle.

Strengths: broadest test execution (ran 717 adjacent tests + attempted the full repo suite; independently caught the 226 SPIKE_DRY_RUN_LOCATE_INQUIRY config drift). Best operational disposition (concrete go-live checklist). And it uniquely surfaced two real items Fable didn't isolate: the cover-path empty catch at 2825 (F1) and the systemic framing of the §5 silent-catch pattern (F3, six examples vs Fable's single instance).
Fatal calibration flaw: both of its headline Highs were overstated — F2 outright refuted, F1 downgraded to Low — because it repeatedly assumed promise-rejection paths that the adapter's never-reject discipline rules out (ChatGPT even conceded the adapter resolves {ok:false}, which concedes F2's premise). Both Mediums are real but hold only at Low, and F4 was already documented in the internal tester report. So it found real texture but misjudged what mattered — its top-billed bugs are its weakest.
Kimi 3.0 Max — least thorough ...
1. Claude Fable 5.0 Extra High — decisively most thorough and found by far the most real problems (8/8 verified findings confirmed, including all three P1s the internal process missed), with the best method and the only serious test-coverage audit.

2. ChatGPT 5.6 Sol Extra-High — more thorough than Kimi (it found genuine issues Kimi missed, ran the widest test execution, and caught two things even Fable didn't isolate), but hobbled by poor severity calibration — both its Highs collapsed under verification.

3. Kimi 3.0 Max — accurate but narrow; sampling-based, deferred to the tests on exactly the hard paths, and its confident "all-clear" is an unsafe false-negative.

One fairness note worth keeping separate from the ranking: on calibration/precision (no false positives, no over-rating) the order inverts — Kimi > Fable > ChatGPT. Kimi's problem isn't wrongness, it's incuriosity; ChatGPT's problem isn't laziness, it's over-claiming. Fable is the only one strong on both axes. And the three are partly complementary — the ideal review is Fable's finding set + ChatGPT's F1/F3 and test-execution breadth + Kimi's severity discipline.
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 15/07/2026
BTW, $QVCPQ and $QVCAQ will be cancelled in three weeks. Borrow is cheap on $QVCPQ so I reshorted some for that eventuality.
excerpt from spreadsheet showing 16% borrow rate on QVCPQ, 23 days to cover at zero, and potential net profit of $4897.78 on a $5k 10,000 share short position from $0.50 net of borrow fees.
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 15/07/2026
The yellow line is my first skeet about the confirmation. This is why you pay me $69,420 per year.
1 minute chart of QVCPQ today showing that the stock was trading at $5.00 at the time I skeeted that the bankruptcy plan was confirmed. Since then it dropped to under $0.20 before bouncing to $0.60.
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 15/07/2026
Amazing that some people on here are still talking about soccer and not the 20% off silk chiffon sale at Britex Fabrics
bright green blue purple plaid silk chiffon
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 15/07/2026
It was worth it.
PACER bill showing $1585.70 in charges over the last month
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 15/07/2026
PURE ALPHA
CONCLUSION
Based on the foregoing reasons, the Court hereby OVERRULES
all objections; APPROVES the Disclosure Statement; CONFIRMS the
Second Amended Plan; and RESERVES JUDGMENT on the Motion
to Terminate Exclusivity.
The Debtors are requested to submit a confirmation order
consistent with this Memorandum Decision’s Findings of Fact and
Conclusions of Law within (7) days.360
SIGNED 07/15/2026
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 14/07/2026
$LESL Leslie's (pool supplies) down 25% on the day. I think it likely that Bbg or WSJ Bankruptcy picked up the story that Octus wrote about yesterday about how they are considering bankruptcy. The tweet below was posted 2 minutes after the first LULD halt down. // Disclosure: I'm trading it
Tweet from Harvard Zhang of Octus: Leslie’s is weighing restructuring options, including a potential chapter 11 bankruptcy, as subdued demand for pool supplies and services pressures liquidity, per sources
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 09/07/2026
Newsbot update: of my newsbot-only strategies, I have only one strategy with a meaningful number of trades. It just hit $9k in profits with a 6.2 profit factor. Unfortunately I think this strat will max out at $50k in profit per year. I'm about to go live with strat 2.
Profit chart showing line going up and to the right from $0 to $9000 in cumulative profits
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 06/07/2026
haha we suck
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 02/07/2026
Estimating the stock stub trades at $0.20 after the final distribution makes the trade pencil out profitable but of course the borrow rate is likely to go up.
short borrow cost spreadsheet cells. APR = 400%, price shorted = $1.65, cover date = 7/30/2026, 28 days until cover, 10k shares, cover price of $0.80 (includes 0.60 final distribution which you as a short have to pay out). Borrow cost is $0.022 per day per share and net profit would be $2,277.78
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 02/07/2026
This is a lie. Here is a photo of minions enjoying their day off at Auschwitz
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 01/07/2026
Me waiting for Fable to return
Claude usage meter at 5% for 5 hour session and 7% for week ending on Saturday
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 30/06/2026
Still punk as fuck
Photo of Tootsie with long scar with sutures on right hind leg and hair shaved off that leg
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 30/06/2026
Another T12 halt (Nasdaq asking for more information) on a Chinese stock, today on $ILLR Triller. Hopefully they keep these coming. Most of these halts over the last year have lasted until the stock was delisted and many of these stocks have never traded even OTC after delisting
Daily candlestick chart of ILLR showing a big move up in the last few days from $1 to $5 and back down to $2.71
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 30/06/2026
"These violent delights have violent ends." So it was her own need to kill that caused her to snap her cranial cruciate ligament as she lunged for yet another bunny. Surgery went well so while she will never again be as deadly (over 100 confirmed kills) she will eventually run again.
my dog Tootsie yawning on a cheap couch in front of a bookcasePhoto of Tootsie from 3 years ago getting a bath after she killed a skunk (of course getting sprayed in the process).
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 30/06/2026
$ABVX Sheep wins again www.bamsec.com/filing/11931...

LOGO

Abivax Reports Positive ABTECT Maintenance

Part 2 Results for Obefazimod, Demonstrating

Meaningful Clinical Benefit in Refractory Ulcerative

Colitis Patients and Strengthening the Phase 3

Maintenance Safety Database

 

 	•	 	
Obefazimod delivered meaningful clinical benefit in a highly refractory ulcerative colitis (“UC”) population, with 37.2% of induction non-responders achieving clinical remission and 34.5% achieving endoscopic remission at Week 44 following continued 50 mg treatment

 

 	•	 	
Dose escalation to obefazimod 50 mg recaptured clinical remission in 45.5% of patients who relapsed during ABTECT Maintenance Part 1, supporting a practical dose-escalation strategy for regaining and sustaining disease control over time

 

 	•	 	
Across the integrated Phase 2 and Phase 3 UC program (1,704 patient-years of exposure), exposure-adjusted incidence rates (“EAIRs”) for malignancies excluding non-melanoma skin cancer (“NMSC”) were 0.35 and 0.64 events per 100 patient-years (“PYs”), and for NMSC were 0.59 and 0.64 events per 100 PYs in the all-active combined (50 mg + 25 mg) and 50 mg cohorts, respectively, all consistent with expected UC background rates

 

 	•	 	
In ABTECT Maintenance Part 2, EAIRs for malignancies excluding NMSC were 0.48 and 0.69 events per 100 PYs, and for NMSC were 0.95 and 0.69 events per 100 PYs, in the all-active combined and 50 mg cohorts, respectively, all consistent with expected UC background rates

 

 	•	 	
Abivax to host a conference call and webcast today at 4:30 p.m. EDT (10:30 p.m. CEST) to discuss the results

PARIS, France – June 29, 2026 – 10:05 pm CEST –
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 30/06/2026
Deadline for confirmation of the $QVC $QVCPQ $QVCAQ bankruptcy plan extended again to July 15th by stipulation of US Trustee and debtors. I know it was a complex, long confirmation trial but we should have a decision by now. This is why 👏 PASTA 👏 SAUCES 👏 SHOULD 👏 NOT 👏 BE 👏 JUDGES 👏
Judge Alfredo R. Perez
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 23/06/2026
The current state of LLMs
Image of a really fierce looking dragon labeled Fable, a non-existent dragon with the error API error. 500 internal server error labeled opus 4.8, a competent looking dragon labeled codex, and a deformed looking dragon labeled Gemini
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 17/06/2026
Some Post-Fable memes if you missed them
Red headed hillbilly from South Park at a lectern with the words "They took our Claudes!"The one Mythos we still have, the Greek beerMonday after Fable hits hard. Old man looking at deformed-baby-like-thing trying to put a square toy into a round hole.Life after fable: pictures of famous Eastern-European man sitting and standing alone in various places
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 17/06/2026
Since Trump took Fable from us I have finally been dragged kicking and screaming into the agents / skills world. A Claude and I built a workflow that is invokable as a custom skill: /spec-pipeline to have a critic agent interact with the owner of a new spec until they reach an agreement. 1/2
Wolverine laying in bed holding an image that says "* Claude Fable 5 Mythos 5"
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 17/06/2026
I will stan Sheep forever but really you can't go much more wrong than following Jordan Lasker aka Cremieux, a failed grad student who makes money peddling race science on Twitter (as well as sharing a bunch of other interesting things which attracts more people to his main theme).
Tweet from Sheep of Wall Street (Biohazard3737), a >$100m net worth biotech fund manager and smart guy, saying, "Agree. Insane work by SpaceX." in response to a quote tweet of Jordan Lasker as Cremieux @cremieuxrecueil saying "Buying stuff with your equity in the middle of a huge IPO pump is an insanely good, basically perfect deal" in reference to $SPCX $SpaceX buying Cursor using stock.
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 12/06/2026
As planned, took the loss on that. Reshorted at 170.7 and covered half at 158.61 and half at 164.5. Paid for dinners for a week.
1 minute candlestick chart of SPCX SpaceX today showing my trades
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 11/06/2026
Andrew Tate and Tristan Tate are pedophiles. They had sex with 15 year old girls. Then Trump and his cronies pushed Romania to free them. PEDOPHILES. Yeah they raped and trafficked dozens of women, but the word pedophile might stick. If your brother watches/follows them? Remind him they are pedos.
When Pavel was fifteen, she told investigators, she had accompanied a school friend to a party hosted by the Tates, which was full of young girls. Her friend paired off with Tristan, leaving her with Andrew, who was so drunk that he spat as he talked. He pulled her into a bedroom and raped her, she said. Afterward, some of Tate’s “female friends” persuaded the girls to stick around for several days, and Tate kept having sex with Pavel. “We had normal, oral, and anal sexual relations, but I mention that the anal sexual acts were traumatic for me because I was in pain,” she told investigators. “Even though I asked Andrew to stop, he continued.”
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 10/06/2026
Stock dropped a bunch. I added 1k to my short
trade blotter from $IBKR showing selling 2k shares at 8.90 and covering 1k at 8.97 16 minutes later today
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 10/06/2026
I'll post this here. Obviously old. From "Senior Legal Analyst and Editor at Octus. Opinions all mine and not those of my gracious employer."
Kevin Eckhardt
@DasWreck
I’m sorry I’m a bankruptcy lawyer, the law has nothing to do with what actually happens in big bankruptcy cases. I write about bankruptcy every day and haven’t had westlaw in seven years. The company filed in Houston for a reason; they’ll get what they want.
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 10/06/2026
However, in coding it is like having a senior dev versus a junior dev. Fable 5 noticed 8 flaws in how I accessed SEC's EDGAR API that Opus had not noticed, and half of them were major bugs. See image. FYI on SEC filings -- don't use API if u need to extract data -- I use it for 8-K filings 2/2
It even noticed this subtle issue: "EDGAR is known to briefly 404/503 filing documents right after the ATOM entry appears. One or two quick retries (~500 ms–1 s apart) before giving up would cut these notifications and close a real missed-alert gap — a delisting filing silently skipped on a hiccup is exactly the loss mode this bot exists to avoid."
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 10/06/2026
Preliminary notes on Claude Fable 5: for online research with lots of resources, not much better than Opus 4.8 (they gave similar answers to this question on Starship h/t @esghound.com for the rocket equaltion knowledge). I used 1% of my Max 5x 5 hour allowance for Opus run and 8% for Fable run 1/2
You will need to search information on the internet to answer this. I am curious about whether Elon Musk's claims for efficiency of Starship are possible. Look up information on the Tsiolkovsky rocket equation as well as efficiency (both in terms of $ per kg lifted to orbit and in terms of energy expended per kg lifted to orbit) for the Saturn V (5) rocket, Falcon X, and Falcon Heavy, and of course, SpaceX Startship to answer the question.

10:09 AM

Synthesized comparative rocket efficiency analysis
Synthesized comparative rocket efficiency analysis
Great question — and it's one where the physics and the economics pull in opposite directions, so let me walk through both. (I'll assume "Falcon X" means the Falcon 9, SpaceX's workhorse rocket.)

The Tsiolkovsky rocket equation
The rocket equation says: Δv = vₑ · ln(m₀/m_f) — the velocity change a rocket can achieve equals its exhaust velocity times the natural log of the ratio of its full mass to its empty mass. Reaching low Earth orbit (LEO) requires roughly 9.3–9.5 km/s of Δv once gravity and drag losses are included, while the best chemical engines have exhaust velocities of only about 3–4.5 km/s (Raptor's specific impulse is 327 s at sea level and 380 s in vacuum, i.e. ~3.2–3.7 km/s). Because Δv needed is ~2.5–3× the exhaust velocity, the logarithm forces mass ratios of 10–20, which is why every orbital rocket is ~85–95% propellant and delivers only 2–4% of its liftoff mass as payload. 
Wikipedia

The crucial point: the rocket equation constrains mass fractions, not dollars. It says nothing about cost. Historically, cost was dominated by throwing away the airframe and engines every flight — which is exactly the lever Musk's claims rest on.

Cost per kg to LEO
Here's what the numbers look like across the four vehicles:

Saturn V: $185 million per launch (about $995 million in 2024 dollars) carrying 140,000 kg to LEO — roughly $7,000/kg in today's money; estimates range from about $5,000/kg to ~$8,800/kg in current …Starship: Musk's claim is a target of $10/kg, i.e. about $1.5 million total to deliver 150 tons to orbit, with propellant making up roughly a third of that. Crucially, that $10/kg figure is only the marginal cost of an additional flight, without paying back any development cost (development has run more than $15 billion). Independent analysts are more cautious: full reusability is expected to bring costs to roughly $1,600/kg initially, potentially falling to $100–150/kg over time, with Citi projecting ~$30/kg by 2040 in a best case but ~$300/kg if ships are only reused about 10 times. American Enterprise Institute + 3

Energy per kg to LEO
This is where it gets interesting. The theoretical minimum energy to place 1 kg in LEO (kinetic plus potential) is about 33 MJ, or roughly 9.7 kWh per kilogram — which at 100% efficiency would correspond to an energy cost of only about $1.85/kg, though rockets are not terribly energy efficient and will never approach that. NextBigFuture
Using each vehicle's propellant load and fuel heating values, the chemical energy burned per kg of payload works out approximately as follows (my calculations from published propellant masses; treat as estimates good to ±20%):

Saturn V: ~640 t of RP-1 plus ~80 t of liquid hydrogen ≈ 37 TJ; over 140 t of payload that's ~265 MJ (~75 kWh) per kg — about 12% energy efficiency.
Falcon 9: ~155 t of RP-1 ≈ 6.7 TJ; over ~17.5 t (reusable mode) that's ~380 MJ (~106 kWh) per kg — about 9% efficient.
Falcon Heavy: ~400 t of RP-1 ≈ 17 TJ; over 63.8 t that's ~270 MJ (~75 kWh) per kg — about 12% efficient.
Starship: the full stack carries methane content of approximately 1,278 metric tons (the Stanford estimate notes methane's combustion energy is about 5.57 × 10⁷ J per kg), giving ~64–71 TJ per launch; at the 150 t design payload that's ~430–470 MJ (~120–130 kWh) per kg — about 7% efficient. At 100 t it's closer to 180 kWh/kg. MobiusriskgroupStanford University
Chart showing decreasing cost per kg over timeChart showing energy per kg of payload with Starship higher than Falcon 9 and Saturn 5

What this tells us about Musk's claim
Notice the striking pattern: the energy expended per kg has barely changed in 60 years — every chemical rocket from Saturn V to Starship burns roughly 70–130 kWh of fuel energy per kg of payload, about 7–13 times the theoretical minimum. That's the rocket equation at work. It rigidly fixes how much propellant you need, and no amount of engineering cleverness escapes it. Starship is actually slightly less energy-efficient per kg than Saturn V, partly because it hauls heavy reusability hardware (steel structure, heat shield, landing propellant) that an expendable rocket doesn't carry.
The cost, meanwhile, has varied by a factor of nearly 1,000 across vehicles burning similar energy. That's because cost was never dominated by energy — it's dominated by throwing away hardware. The propellant for a Starship launch (~4,600 tons of cheap methane and liquid oxygen) costs on the order of $900,000, with total per-flight costs of around $2 million once operations are included, according to Musk. At 150 tons of payload, $1.5M of propellant works out to roughly $7–10/kg — meaning Musk's $10/kg figure is essentially the fuel-only floor. The rocket equation permits it; nothing in physics forbids it. TechCrunch
So is the claim possible? My read:
Physically: yes. The $10/kg number doesn't violate the rocket equation or thermodynamics — it sits comfortably above the ~$2/kg pure-energy floor, and the mass ratios Starship needs are achievable with methane/LOX staged combustion.Physically: yes. The $10/kg number doesn't violate the rocket equation or thermodynamics — it sits comfortably above the ~$2/kg pure-energy floor, and the mass ratios Starship needs are achievable with methane/LOX staged combustion.
Economically: only under heroic assumptions. It requires full and rapid reusability (boosters and ships reflown hundreds of times with airline-style turnaround), enormous flight rates so fixed costs amortize away, near-zero refurbishment, and — as the NASA analysis notes — it ignores repaying the development cost entirely. Reality is still catching up: current Starship versions have flown with actual demonstrated LEO payloads of 15–35 tons for Blocks 1–2, with 100 tons targeted for Block 3, and a record of 7 successes in 12 flights, and most analysts consider $100–500/kg more realistic in the near-to-medium term. WikipediaSpaceNexus
Even the skeptics' number is remarkable, though: $100–300/kg would be 5–15× cheaper than Falcon Heavy and 20–70× cheaper than Saturn V in real terms. The honest summary is that Musk's $10/kg is an aspirational marginal-cost limit — the price of fuel for a fully amortized, airline-like system — not a near-term ticket price. The rocket equation guarantees Starship will never be energy-efficient; it just doesn't have to be, because energy was never the expensive part.
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 09/06/2026
Happy delivery day for Jack Schwager's "Market Wizards: The Next Generation." I personally know three of the traders in the book: Lukas Froelich, Phil Goedeker, and Lance Breitstein. They are all amazing traders and Lukas will someday be ranked as one of the greatest traders of all time.
Jack D. Schwager's book "Market Wizards: The Next Generation," in front of my dog, a Great Pyrenees mix. He is not excited by the book.
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 08/06/2026
Re: $INHD I've never been happier about a 100% loss
INHD 1 minute candlestick chart showing me shorting at 15.685 and covering at 30.99 after a long halt and huge gap up
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 08/06/2026
Correction, Robert Meltzer, topco director (QVC Group). He'll likely take the rest of the day
Roger Meltzer, Esq. is a distinguished global leader, having produced substantial innovations for global firms, including one of the largest and most well-known firms in the world while demonstrating agility, compassion, and consistency. He has successfully navigated firms and local offices through challenges such as major worldwide financial headwinds, transnational cyberattacks and global pandemics. Under his leadership, he has clearly established moral and business imperatives and has pioneered industry precedents for institutionalized equality, diversity and inclusivity and nurtured a global iconic pro bono effort. He is known for leading and nurturing entrepreneurial, high performing, and team-centric cultures.
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 08/06/2026
$QVCAQ $QVCPQ 2nd amended bankruptcy plan filed on 6/2/2026 restructuring.ra.kroll.com/QVC/Home-Dow... There is no doubt about $QVCAQ getting zeroed. The only question (a small one) is timing. If debtor's plan is not confirmed it should spike as well. Current borrow rate 102%
During the pendency of the Chapter 11 Cases, the Debtors and from and after the Effective Date, the
Reorganized Debtors shall use commercially reasonable efforts to (i) upon the Effective Date (or, in order to meet
applicable listing requirements, as soon as commercially practicable following the Effective Date), have the QVC
New Equity Interests listed for public trading on the NYSE Main Board or NYSE American Exchange of the New
York Stock Exchange LLC or on the Nasdaq Global Select Market, the Nasdaq Global Market or the Nasdaq Capital
Market of the Nasdaq Stock Market LLC
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 07/06/2026
Good job $GOCO GoHealth! You are not zeroing out your common shareholders in your bankruptcy filed today. The plan is complex but by my reading common shareholders will get ~$0.34 per share. www.bankruptcy.angeiongroup.com/Clients/ghi/...
8. Class 8 – GoHealth, Inc. Class A Common Stock.
(a) Classification: Class 8 consists of all GoHealth, Inc. Class A Common Stock.
(b) Treatment: Except to the extent that a Holder of Allowed GoHealth, Inc. Class A Common
Stock agrees to less favorable treatment, on the Effective Date, each Holder of Allowed
GoHealth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (except, for the avoidance of doubt, Holders of
such Interests that are Debtors) shall receive, in full and final satisfaction of such Interest,
its Specified Pro Rata Share of the Equity Recovery Pool.
(c) Voting: Class 8 is Impaired under this Plan. Therefore, Holders of Allowed GoHealth,
Inc. Class A Common Stock are entitled to vote to accept or reject this Plan.
9. Class 9 – GoHealth, Inc. Class B Common Stock.
(a) Classification: Class 9 consists of all GoHealth, Inc. Class B Common Stock.
(b) Treatment: On the Effective Date, all GoHealth, Inc. Class B Common Stock shall be
cancelled, released, discharged, extinguished, and of no further force or effect, and Holders
of such GoHealth, Inc. Class B Common Stock shall receive no distribution.
(c) Voting: Class 9 is Impaired under this Plan. Holders of GoHealth, Inc. Class B Common
Stock are conclusively deemed to have rejected this Plan pursuant to section 1126(g) of the
Bankruptcy Code. Therefore, Holders of Allowed GoHealth, Inc. Class B Common Stock
are not entitled to vote to accept or reject this Plan “Equity Recovery Pool” means $10 million in Cash, which will be funded from the proceeds of the
New Money Exit Facility.127. “Specified Pro Rata Share” means the respective share of the Equity Recovery Pool that Holders of
Allowed GoHealth Holdings Interests and Allowed GoHealth, Inc. Class A Common Stock shall receive under this
Plan, which shall be calculated as follows: the aggregate GoHealth, Inc. Class A Common Stock and GoHealth, Inc.
Class B Common Stock held by a given Holder as the numerator, divided by the total outstanding GoHealth, Inc.
Class A Common Stock plus the total outstanding GoHealth, Inc. Class B Common Stock as the denominator;
provided, however, that each Holder of GoHealth, Inc. Class A Common Stock or GoHealth Holdings Interests (and,
in each case, such Holder’s fund(s), account, branch, Affiliate(s), unit and/or business group(s) that have a beneficial
interest in such Interests) that is also a lender under the First Lien Credit Agreement or Super-Priority Credit
Agreement shall each waive its right to recover its Specified Pro Rata Share of the Equity Recovery Pool.
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Michael Goode @goodetrades.com · 05/06/2026
It can clog your inbox too
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