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Gregg Carlstrom

@glcarlstrom.bsky.social
14K followers 82 following 792 posts

Middle East correspondent at The Economist.

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
"What follows now is probably a sustained campaign by Israel. Its airforce has around 300 manned fighter-jets and long-range attack drones, but only a limited number can attack simultaneously due to its small number of refuelling tankers." www.economist.com/middle-east-...
economist.com
Israel launches an attack on Iran—without America
Waves of strikes target Iran’s leaders and nuclear programme
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
In private, though, does anyone think the Saudis or Emiratis are sad to see the IRGC decapitated? Iran has spent decades destabilizing Arab states and fomenting chaos. Its neighbors might be afraid of it—but don't confuse that for genuine friendship or support in the region.
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
The Gulf reconciliation with Iran was basically a protection racket: paying off the local mob boss so nobody burns down your store. That's also why Saudi Arabia was so quick to condemn Israel's strikes on Iran this morning, and why most (if not all) other Gulf states will follow.
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
That goes for Gulf states too. There's been some baffling commentary in recent months (e.g. here in @ForeignAffairs) about how they no longer perceive Iran as a major threat. It confuses a tactical rapprochement with a genuine warming of relations. www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/new-b...
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
A bit of nuance on regional reactions: plenty of people in the Middle East are happy to see Iran hit. They are also deeply worried about what comes next. But Lebanese, Syrians, Yemenis etc. who suffered for years because of the Islamic republic are glad to see it bloodied. 🧵
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
"'This has been a bad week for the Army for anyone who cares about us being a neutral institution,' one commander at Fort Bragg told @militarydotcom.bsky.social on the condition of anonymity to avoid retaliation. 'This was shameful.'" www.military.com/daily-news/2...
military.com
Bragg Soldiers Who Cheered Trump's Political Attacks While in Uniform Were Checked for Allegiance, Appearance
As President Donald Trump viciously attacked his perceived political foes, he whipped up boos from the gathered troops directed at California leaders, including Gov. Gavin Newsom.
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
On further steps Iran might take after the IAEA censure vote: "Sources in Tehran indicated to @amwajmedia.bsky.social that the 'special measures' may include the expulsion of foreign inspectors. Such a step would be a major escalation and potentially cross US red lines." amwaj.media/en/article/i...
amwaj.media
Iran-US talks on edge amid signs of escalation ahead
On the eve of a fateful vote by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors, tension over the future of the Iranian nuclear program is spiraling. In an unusual step, the US has or...
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
The US embassy in Israel today instructed staff and their families not to travel outside greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Be'er Sheva. It issued similar restrictions in April and October last year after the Iranian ballistic-missile attacks on Israel
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Exactly right: "Regardless of the location, it is hard to see why Saudi Arabia would entertain a significant nuclear partnership with Iran—let alone one that hands the Islamic republic dominance over a sector the kingdom is keen to develop and control." amwaj.media/en/article/d...
amwaj.media
Deep Dive: Why Saudi Arabia shies away from nuclear consortium with Iran
The idea of a regional nuclear consortium is gaining momentum as Iran and the United States explore ways to advance their negotiations over the future of the Iranian atomic program. Following the rece...
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
One other thing: worth noting that US media leaks overnight were non-specific. No intel about Israel taking operational steps for an imminent strike. Just that it was "considering military action" or "fully ready" to strike, which is common knowledge www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-...
cbsnews.com
Israel is poised to launch operation on Iran, multiple sources tell CBS News
U.S. officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran, multiple sources say.
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
The dilemma for Trump is that the stunt works exactly once. If it doesn't unblock the negotiations—which, from the outside, do seem genuinely stuck on the issue of enrichment—then you have to choose between following through on your threats or devaluing them
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Don't have a clear answer what's happening with US/Iran (no one who's talking about it publicly does!) but will just say that last night's news can be, simultaneously, a stunt to pressure Iran to make concessions *and* the kind of concrete step you'd take before military action
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
A trade war run by ideologues and buffoons: "[Chinese] exports have risen by 6% overall, owing to increased shipments to Europe and South-East Asia. China's currency, meanwhile, is stronger now against the dollar than it was before April 2nd." www.economist.com/finance-and-...
economist.com
How America and China spooked each other
As officials met in London, the costs of their trade war were abundantly clear
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
All of the "flaws" here were entirely predictable. "The military and GHF had prepared for smaller crowds than the tens of thousands who have come to the sites" — what on earth did they expect, setting up only a handful of centers to serve 2m people? www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
A Flawed Attempt at Delivering Gaza Aid Led to a Wave of Deaths
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation was created to get food quickly to those who need it most. It soon ran into trouble.
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
"Still, even among those pressing for diplomacy, there is concern about the president's penchant for changing his mind depending on who he’s last spoken to. There's a fear Trump... could act on rhetoric many largely deem negotiating bravado." www.politico.com/news/2025/06...
politico.com
Inside the MAGA vs. hawk battle to sway Trump on bombing Iran
Trump allies are trying to counter a private pressure campaign to ditch Steve Witkoff’s diplomatic effort and join Israel in attacking Tehran.
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
Well, this explains that Tucker Carlson tweet denouncing Levin last week (and the claim is indeed untrue: it conflates enriching some weapons-grade uranium with building a nuclear weapon)
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
As ever with Trump, this could be a very newsworthy admission or it could be meaningless word salad, and there's really no way to be sure which it is www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
Trump says Iran is involved in Gaza hostage negotiations
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday Iran is involved in negotiations aimed at arranging a ceasefire-for-hostages deal between Israel and Hamas.
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
Was Huckabee freelancing a bit? Hard to imagine Trump getting this deep in the weeds of Israeli politics. And it wouldn't be the first time a Trump ambassador to Israel was out of step with the president (e.g. David Friedman and annexation).
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
I'm curious to see how this will play in Trumpworld. The isolationist wing dislikes Netanyahu (for obvious reasons) and distrusts Huckabee (he's a neocon). The latter intervening to help the former—supposedly because of "the Iranian issue", no less—won't go over well
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
Couple of thoughts here, beyond pointless hand-wringing about how this is an enormous breach of diplomatic norms (🫠). If Huckabee is personally intervening to try and save the Israeli government, it tells you how worried Netanyahu is about losing his coalition www.timesofisrael.com/us-ambassado...
timesofisrael.com
US Ambassador Huckabee said meeting with Haredi MKs in bid to prevent coalition’s fall
Israeli TV says US envoy told ultra-Orthodox figures that 'gov't stability is important for addressing the Iran issue,' said elections would make it more difficult to back Israel
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
"Every day, we lose more ways to survive. My son is only asking for the bare minimum — a loaf of bread. We're not asking for proper housing or clothes or even meat. All we want is a loaf of bread to stop the children's crying. Is that too much to ask?" www.nytimes.com/2025/06/07/w...
nytimes.com
Parents in Gaza Are Running Out of Ways to Feed Their Children: ‘All We Want Is a Loaf of Bread’
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
In the 1980s Israel allowed an Islamist group in Gaza to start gathering weapons, in the hope that it would fight Fatah, Israel's main enemy at the time. That group went on to become Hamas. Glad to see everyone has learned the right lessons from history www.nytimes.com/2025/06/05/w...
nytimes.com
Israel Armed Palestinian Militia to Fight Hamas, Officials Say
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
The GHF ignored weeks of warnings that its model would mean overwhelming crowds. And then the inevitable result: "Senior commanders had considered managing the crowds through the use of live fire. 'The intent was to direct the population using gunfire.'" www.haaretz.com/middle-east-...
haaretz.com
Testimonies: IDF responsible for lethal shootings near U.S.-led aid site in Gaza
***
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
The idea that Russia might "be helpful" on Iran talks has been floated for months. There's not much evidence it's actually happening. But it's useful for Putin to keep the idea alive in Trump's mind
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
Iran shipped less oil to China in May, at least according to preliminary data, but it seems unclear how much of that is due to tighter sanctions and how much is down to weak demand + refiners that stockpiled Iranian oil earlier in the year. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Iran Oil Flows to China Fall on Sanctions, Refinery Maintenance
Iran is shipping less oil to China, as toughening sanctions snarl the OPEC producer’s shipments and refinery demand falls in the world’s biggest fossil fuel importer.
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
Will the UAE break OPEC? "It is only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia and the UAE openly clash. A descent into disorder, fuelled by conflict between OPEC’s largest and third-largest exporters, could then make the cartel unworkable." www.economist.com/finance-and-...
economist.com
Will the UAE break OPEC?
We find that the Emiratis are flouting the cartel’s rules on a grand scale
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
"As leaders from Abu Dhabi, Doha and Riyadh competed to pledge trillions of dollars for US investments during President Donald Trump’s recent visit to the Middle East, bankers behind the scenes quietly agreed: Saudi Arabia isn’t the draw it once was." www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
bloomberg.com
Saudi Arabia's Hurdles at Home Are Reshaping the Mideast Financial Order
Bankers and business leaders are shifting more attention toward the kingdom’s neighbors in the Gulf as it grapples with lower oil prices and weakening finances.
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
Good @hdagres.bsky.social analysis on how Araghchi is COPYING Trump's communication style, down to his weird Capitalizations: "Since the current talks began, he has methodically cultivated a narrative designed to catch the ear of Trump and his base." www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analy...
washingtoninstitute.org
Iran’s Foreign Minister Knows How to Speak Trump’s Language—Literally
In a bid to appease—and manipulate—the pioneer of “Twitter diplomacy,” Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator has adopted President Trump’s social media style while seeking favorable terms for the next big d...
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
If you force large crowds of desperate people to congregate in a war zone in the hope they can obtain scarce aid, it's going to end badly. This isn't just an issue of needing better signage or fences or something. It's a problem with the entire GHF concept www.timesofisrael.com/gaza-aid-gro...
timesofisrael.com
Gaza aid sites to be closed for day as GHF seeks to bolster security after shootings
Organization says it's working to accommodate larger crowds and has made a series of requests to IDF aimed at boosting safety measures after 3 straight days of mass-casualty incidents
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
"What awaits them is suffocating overcrowding, one of the densest concentrations of human beings in the world. Unlike in other heavily populated urban settings, such as the slums of south Asia, there is no sanitation and no running water." www.ft.com/content/ba6e...
ft.com
How Israel is forcing Gazans off their land
FT analysis of evacuation orders and satellite imagery shows Palestinians being squeezed into an ever denser sliver of territory
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
This sounds as if someone got really creative and proposed building the enrichment facility on the Tunbs or Abu Musa, where theoretically both Iran and the UAE could claim it was on their soil www.nytimes.com/2025/06/03/u...
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
Israel for the past six months: we will work to prevent the new Syrian government from having any authority in the south Israel, yesterday: why doesn't the new Syrian government have any authority in the south? www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
timesofisrael.com
Katz casts Syria’s Sharaa as responsible for rocket fire, vows ‘full response’ soon
* * *
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
The same issues as ever: "A senior Hamas official said the deal contradicted previous discussions between the group and Witkoff. The official told the BBC that the offer did not include guarantees the temporary truce would lead to a permanent ceasefire." www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
Hamas official says it rejects new US Gaza ceasefire plan backed by Israel
The US says Israel has "signed off" on envoy Steve Witkoff's plan and that it is waiting for a formal response from Hamas.
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
"Analysts at Goldman Sachs, a bank, warn that trade uncertainty has increased, rather than decreased, as a consequence of the court's decision. Unless Mr Trump has a light-bulb moment of his own, America's importers will be doing business in the dark." www.economist.com/finance-and-...
economist.com
The courts block Trump’s tariffs. Can he circumvent them?
American trade policy is in chaos
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
So an obscure court blocked most of Trump's tariffs, but he can use a different authority to reinstate limited tariffs for five months and start laying the groundwork for open-ended ones on big trading partners. Great news for businesses, who famously love chaos and uncertainty
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
Trump, April 7: "shouldn't be that long" until a new Gaza deal Trump, April 25: "very close" to a trade deal with Japan Trump, April 26: Russia and Ukraine are "very close to a deal" All of those remarks made headlines—but more than a month later, none of those deals are done
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
I mean, it's possible they agree to *something* in the coming weeks (although it will be far short of a formal nuclear deal). But this is also just how Trump talks: excessive, unwarranted optimism about dealmaking is kind of his thing edition.cnn.com/2025/05/28/p...
edition.cnn.com
Trump says he believes US is close to reaching a new Iran nuclear deal as he confirms he told Israel not to disrupt the talks | CNN Politics
President Donald Trump believes his administration is “very close to a solution” on an Iran nuclear agreement and he has personally warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to disrupt the ...
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
The Biden administration wasted a year trying to "bridge the gaps" and accomplished nothing. If Trump is serious about a deal it requires pressure on Netanyahu to end his forever war, not "wordsmithing" www.axios.com/2025/05/28/g...
axios.com
U.S. believes breakthrough is close on Gaza ceasefire, hostage deal
"If each side moves just a bit, we could have a deal within days."
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
For all of Witkoff's optimism yesterday, the sticking points here are basically the same as always. Hamas wants a permanent ceasefire in Gaza; Israel does not. Hamas wants to keep hostages as leverage until the end of the deal; Israel wants them out immediately.
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
Day one of the new "aid mechanism": maybe 2% of Gazan families were able to collect food parcels before thousands of hungry people overran one of the distribution centers and forced it to close temporarily. www.timesofisrael.com/gazans-overr...
timesofisrael.com
Gazans overrun Strip’s new aid center; operators says distribution has resumed
IDF confirms it fired shots into air, not at center itself; US-backed aid group says centers have given out 8,000 food boxes; UN says mechanism far from reaching aid targets
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
And yet nonetheless Ron Dermer comes along and says listen, if you keep doing these symbolic shows of displeasure, we're going to do something that will really force you to treat us like pariahs www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...
haaretz.com
Israel’s Dermer threatens West Bank annexation if Britain, France recognize Palestinian state
***
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
On the one hand, yes, this is Israel's "diplomatic nadir". But even at the nadir it's still getting kid-glove treatment: its Western allies are searching for symbolic measures to show their displeasure, not ways to impose real consequences. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/26/w...
nytimes.com
Trump’s Comments on Gaza Reflect Israel’s Growing Isolation
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 26/05/2025
In which the director of the "Gaza Humanitarian Foundation" finally discovers what should have been clear months ago to anyone who did a modicum of due diligence www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
washingtonpost.com
Head of Gaza aid group resigns, citing concern over ‘humanitarian principles’
The Gaza Humanitarian Fund, backed by the U.S. and Israel, has faced skepticism from other aid groups. It said it would go ahead with deliveries to Gazans on Monday.
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 26/05/2025
If Trump really wants the horror show in Gaza to end "as quickly as possible", he can tell Netanyahu to end it. Otherwise these sorts of comments are no different than all of the "Biden is fed up with Bibi, for real this time" leaks from last year www.axios.com/2025/05/26/t...
axios.com
Trump says he wants to end the war in Gaza "as quickly as possible"
"Israel, we've been talking to them, and we want to see if we can stop that whole situation as quickly as possible,."
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Think Rubio was exaggerating quite a bit when he said Syria was weeks from "full-scale civil war of epic proportions" without sanctions relief. But if that's what it takes to sell the policy and give it some urgency, then exaggerate away, guys www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
​U.S. Eased Syria Sanctions Over Fears of Imminent Collapse, Rubio Says
Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Syria was potentially weeks away from a return to full-scale civil war, a scenario the U.S. was seeking to avert.
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
"The movement of air munitions and the completion of an air exercise" sounds like... business as usual? And you don't need to intercept Israeli communications to know they're "considering such a move". They say it in public!
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Headline is dramatic but the details aren't. Israel has been making preparations to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities for years: common knowledge. This reads like a leak aimed at pressuring the Iranians, not a sign that Israel's preparations have accelerated edition.cnn.com/2025/05/20/p...
edition.cnn.com
New intelligence suggests Israel is preparing possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, US officials say | CNN Politics
The US has obtained new intelligence suggesting that Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, even as the Trump administration has been pursuing a diplomatic deal with Tehra...
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
"The scheme hews closely to ideas considered and abandoned by the Israeli military over the past year — including as recently as last month. These revolved around creating cleared 'sterile' zones devoid of Hamas where aid could be distributed." www.ft.com/content/ae19...
ft.com
The little-known group poised to take over Gaza’s aid
US and Israel-backed plan to hand control to the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation has provoked fierce criticism
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
More details about the "Gaza Humanitarian Foundation", the dodgy group meant to take over aid distribution. It claims to have raised $100m, but won't name its donors; and one of the prominent humanitarian figures listed as a "board member" says he is not, in fact, on the board.
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
A trickle of aid entered Gaza. But the UN says Israel hasn't yet allowed it to collect that aid from the Palestinian side of the border crossing. So nothing has been distributed yet www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
UN says no aid yet distributed in Gaza as international pressure on Israel mounts
Israel agreed on Sunday to allow a "basic amount of food" to enter Gaza, where global experts have warned of a looming famine.
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