Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 06/10/2026static.klipy.comRon Burgundy Say Whaaat MemeALT: Ron Burgundy Say Whaaat Meme 000
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 06/10/2026End of the day, if CN is trying to shield itself from nuclear coercion to enable invasion options, building the conventional tools needed to send amphibs to the bottom of the strait seems to me the most effective tool for the job in a holistic deterrence sense 011
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 06/10/2026I think the larger potential benefit in this deterrence objective is just convincing CN that we're not warded off by CN retaliatory capabilities, we'd still go. That being said, that also carries... obvious risks. 110
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 06/10/2026The ongoing shift in CN towards a "strategic counterbalance" is, in my mind, likely to be effective at reducing the effectiveness of US threats though. I could see a stronger argument for a more capable/usable theater nuke force having benefits in this role, but its benefits still seem limited 100
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 06/10/2026That being said, if the goal of US nuke forces is to deter a CN conventional attack, thats a different ballgame. CN is quite susceptible to nuclear threats; the origin of their nuclear force is based on that threat and they have no problem believing that the folks who hit Hiroshima will do it to CN 110
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 06/10/2026So if your strategic objective is preventing US nuclear use and stopping them from using nukes to defeat your invasion of Taiwan, nuking Guam isn't really what you're going for unless the US goes first. But you 100% want that capability for retaliatory purposes. 100
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 06/10/2026Chinese strategists are increasingly discussing nukes as a means of deterring conventional intervention, but the mechanism is seemingly that by deterring US nuclear options, you get to deter the extent of US military intervention that leans on nuke options--coupled with the intrinsic risk. 100
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 06/10/2026The role of nukes for CN is containing US nuclear options, and thus limiting US options in the fight. They increasingly see nukes as an important piece of US strategy in a Taiwan fight. So by taking that off the table you counter a key piece of US strategy and inhibit the US military writ large 110
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 06/10/2026So I think this kinda comes down to what specifically you're looking to deter with your nuclear force. If your goal is to deter Chinese nuclear first strikes on Guam, congrats, you're going to succeed, they have a retaliatory nuke posture and their NFU is based on strategic considerations first 100
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 06/10/2026If you don't mind, expand on your thinking about rebalancing towards strategic forces. Based primarily on examining it from a CN lens, seeing the goals their nuclear forces are designed to fill and the steps being taken, I can't see additional strategic focus having real value in a deterrence sense. 110
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 06/10/2026China's nuclear force is deeply linked with its objectives vis-a-vis Taiwan, one of many military elements geared towards that political goal. But arms control as a weapon won't work; I hope both sides can see the benefit of coming to the table and that this effort bears fruit 020
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 06/10/2026In the past, the Chinese side has viewed arms control consultations as something that the US wanted and that it could use to gain concessions on its own interests regarding Taiwan, instead of seeing the mutually beneficial interest in reducing the potential for catastrophic risk. 110
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 06/10/2026If true and acted upon, reciprocal site visits would be a huge step forward in providing a mutually beneficial arrangement that limits risk between the US and China by improving transparency and predictability. 1112
Reposted by Gerald C BrownNick Kodama 🌳👻 @nickkodama.bsky.social · 06/10/2026good, if true www.cnn.com/2026/10/06/p...cnn.comUS and China discussing reciprocal nuclear site visits amid concerns about a new arms race | CNN PoliticsThe Trump administration has discussed beginning reciprocal nuclear site visits with China and plans to continue pushing for that possibility during in-person meetings in the coming months, according ... 2335
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 06/10/2026I'm slowly creeping back out into the real world 😉 020
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 05/10/2026I guess bad at coercing independently, vs when combined with other elements of military force 270
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 05/10/2026youtu.be/YR7H71eSL6Q?...youtu.beSouth Park - Pete Hegseth is a DoucheYouTube video by GuyWhoLikesSP 030
Reposted by Gerald C BrownNicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Putin apologists want you to buy that: -An alleged off-the-books 1991 verbal promise outweighs a signed 1994 treaty -Democratic countries formerly occupied by Russia asked to join an anti-Russia alliance for no reason -Ukrainians don't want freedom, an American tricked them into it with cookies 13630156
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Ah yes, just what everyone needs, simplifying the enemy's ability to close kill chains against aircraft. Is it more "manly" to die in a fiery blaze? 0110
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Honestly missed opportunity on not making it blue. 060
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Look I got the color wrong, but I was way too close here 613725
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Nothing quite fills me with joy and motivation as seeing into his soul and thinking about how far our country has come. 0110
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Be sure to bring out your little orange book and recite key insights from Donale Trump thought when passing the semblance of the supreme leader. 2495
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 27/09/2026But yes, at the end of the day, when my work is done, I like to curl up with a nice history book in English and a glass of whiskey. Sue me. My recommendation? Be a little nicer to everyone else and don't make wild ass assumptions when you have no idea what you're talking about :) 030
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Anyways, every day I'm reading through Chinese authors in books and journals--that is the entire basis of my research! I'd be really shit at my job if I built my understanding of the Chinese military from just English. And all of these are critically underexamined, like most sources in this space! 100
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 27/09/2026But if I'm being honest, my favorite has been 与共和国一起成长: 我在战略导弹部队的难忘记忆 (Growing up with the republic: My unforgettable memories in the strategic missile forces). This is just an insanely cool collection of first-hand accounts of the events that shaped the Second Artillery's history. So interesting 110
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Joint Operations has been all the buzz in China, and the NDU text 联合作战研究 (Research on Joint Operations) is an insightful view on how the PLA was thinking about it leading into the formation of the new joint theater command structure! 100
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 27/09/2026This is an underutilized and incredibly valuable resource, the 2024 edition of 中国台湾问题 (China's Taiwan Question), coming from China's Taiwan Affairs Office and providing an authoritative view on how Chinese officials view Taiwan and their approach to it. 110
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Were you fascinated by Chen Chongbei and Shou Xiaosong's landmark 1989 text on deterrence, 威慑战略 (Deterrence Strategy)? Well you'll love to know that they updated in 2020! Notably, Shou Xiaosong also was the lead editor of the AMS 2013 战略学 (Science of Military Strategy) that researchers gravitate to. 100
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 27/09/2026First is 我国战略威慑能力建设研究 (Research on the Construction of Our Country's Strategic Deterrence Capability), an examination of strategic deterrence across the spectrum, looking at the nuclear, conventional, space, economic, mobilization, and cognitive deterrence methods to achieve strategic objectives. 110
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Knowing exactly the amount of time I spend examining Chinese sources, how deeply I integrate them into my work, and the sheer volume of Chinese texts I use compared to most, this remark has me cracking up. But, let's talk about some of the fun Chinese texts I've been finding interesting recently! 160
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 27/09/2026I read those every day at work :) But nice assumption! 000
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Watching that clip I genuinely thought he was no older than 20 030
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Ok Mike, but what you're not considering here is that there's some nuclear engineers who think it'd be really cool to do some tests and try out some shit. 1100
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Oh it's great. The politics in general was done very well, the uncertainty in decision-making and Cold War dynamics intersecting with the OPA, internal politics intermingling with it all, it's a work of art. 110
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Worth revisiting! Best sci fi around, and the physics... They did a lot of work thinking through space conflict seriously, on top of the political dynamics 130
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Well, Emma did it. I am officially rewatching the Expanse and I assure you, it's still so. Insanely. Good. 3465
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Folks, Science of Military Strategy (战略学) is a great source when evaluating the PLA, incredibly useful. But, it is not the only source, it is not even the best source. When evaluating PLA thinking, you really need to look beyond only using that singular source... There's a lot out there. 040
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 25/09/2026$250 is a steal for a lifetime memory! That'll be with ya forever! 010
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Another great point! Turns out renaming an entity as large as DoD is... insanely expensive. For zero benefit. 110
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Ok I am sort of proud of this one on the CASI topic 3183
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Anyways, another feather in the "pivot to Asia, but West-Asia" hat. At least the content is fire leading into the war we're so stupidly walking into unprepared for open.spotify.com/track/7HjR4I...open.spotify.comINDO(PAY)COMAV Boyz · INDO(PAY)COM · Song · 2026 040
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 22/09/2026This is a self-own and shortsighted decision. The state of understanding China and the PLA within the United States is incredibly poor, and CASI was one of the only ones making a measurable impact in fixing that flaw. We're not taking the threat seriously and it will haunt us. 080
Gerald C Brown @geraldcbrown.bsky.social · 22/09/2026The products published by CASI and the courses they taught made a massive impact and improved USG and public decision-making significantly. And frankly with a shoestring budget, CASI punches way above their weight. 180
