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George Wu

@geowu.bsky.social
1.5K followers 286 following 193 posts

Decision researcher; just enough of a psychologist and economist to be dangerous

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Reposted by George Wu
Rafael M Batista @rafmbatista.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
For anyone currently living in Chicago or moving there in the coming months, I'm selling my apt in Hyde Park 🏠️ 5 min walk to UChicago and Obama Center / Jackson Park. Metra line next door. 1000sqft 1b/1b unit w/ plenty of natural light 🌞 www.zillow.com/homedetails/...
zillow.com
1534 E 59th St #L2, Chicago, IL 60637
Welcome to Midway Apartments and this spacious one-bedroom unit, where vintage character and gracious proportions come together beautifully. High ceilings, handsome oak floors, plaster moldings, and vintage lighting are among the home's many distinctive features. Built in 1925 and designed by noted Chicago architect Paul Frederick Olsen, Midway Apartments is a beautifully maintained courtyard co-op is distinguished by limestone and metal architectural details, with inviting landscaping. The property is ideally situated just steps from the Obama Presidential Center, the University of Chicago, Promontory Point and a wealth of neighborhood amenities.
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Data Colada @datacolada.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Colada[139] Artificial Deadlines Part 2 Evidence of fraud in the 25 year old gradesheet behind the key finding in an influential paper on deadlines and procrastination. datacolada.org/139
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Data Colada @datacolada.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
An influential paper by Ariely & Wertenbroch (2002) reported two studies with tampered data. Post 1 of 2. datacolada.org/138
datacolada.org
[138] Artificial Deadlines (Part 1): Evidence of Fraud in an Influential Study About Procrastination
A new paper in Psychological Science (.htm) reports a failure to replicate Study 2 of Ariely and Wertenbroch’s influential article entitled, “Procrastination, Deadlines, and Performance: Self-Contr…
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Hyde Park Trish @pmorse.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
For those of us on the South Side of #chicago good news! The Hyde Park Used Book Sale is on even though the Hyde Park Bank Building is being sold. Bring your books to the lobby of the building where the boxes are set up. And they'd appreciate any banana boxes you'd like to gather.
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Uri Simonsohn @urisohn.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Here is what i think the head-to-head comparison of ResearchBox vs Zenodo look like as OSF replacements. If I am missing an important attribute, let me know, will update accordingly.
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Colin Camerer @cfcamerer.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
A wild story, DHS investigators somehow tracked this man to a hotel after landing at JFK because of an email he sent 5 months earlier. “His daughter cried when he told her about the agents and she said she didn't want him to be killed.”
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
Says the guy who was not able to multiply 17 and 6 twenty years ago. At least then, senior was less of a dolt than junior. www.motherjones.com/politics/201...
motherjones.com
Donald Trump, Ivanka, & Don Jr were asked very easy math problems. They got them very wrong.
Still, Donald insists his wrong answer is correct.
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
What a story!
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Rex Huppke @rexhuppke.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
My succinct Strait of Hormuz synopsis:
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
I'm delighted that our paper, "Risk Matters Less When Options Are Apples-to-Oranges: The Translate-and-Accommodate Model" (Evan Weingarten, Yuval Rottenstreich, and George Wu) has just been accepted at Psychological Review. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... 1/N
papers.ssrn.com
<p><span>Risk Matters Less When Options Are Apples-to-Oranges: </span><span>The Translate-and-Accommodate Model</span></p>
<div> <div> <div> <p><a rel="nofollow"><span>Risk aversion for moderate-likelihood gains is perhaps the best-known stylized fact from decision r
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Thanks. Will do.
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Ok, that's an overview of the paper. There's more, we think, in the paper. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... N/N
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
It also can generate a "reverse uncertainty effect," a risky option valued above its best possible outcome (Goldsmith & Amir, 2010; Shen et al, 2015). According to our model, it isn't one bizarre pattern of risk preferences or the other, but both kinds of uncertainty effect can co-exist. 20/N
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
The graph below plots how combinations of tau and alpha map into different preference patterns. The green is what we document in our paper, risk mattering less. The orange is the uncertainty effect. Importantly, this region gets larger as unimodal risk aversion increases. 19/N
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
We found that people value a $100 Barnes & Noble gift certificate at $45, a $50 gift certificate at $26, but a lottery that offered equal chance at both at $16! This result has since been replicated. 18/N
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
It turns out that certain combinations of tau and alpha are consistent with risk mattering less. Surprise: the model also provides an explanation for the uncertainty effect, a finding that Uri Gneezy, @johnlist.bsky.social, and I wrote up 20 years ago. academic.oup.com/qje/article-... 17/N
academic.oup.com
The Uncertainty Effect: When a Risky Prospect is Valued Less than its Worst Possible Outcome
Abstract. Expected utility theory, prospect theory, and most other models of risky choice are based on the fundamental premise that individuals choose amon
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
We build an algebraic model that includes a translation term (tau) and an accommodation term (alpha). Tau = 1 and alpha = 1 corresponds with unimodal choice. I won't explain the notation (you can start at page 67 of papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....) but you can see that it is pretty simple. 16/N
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
This theorizing builds on incommensurability and similarity, studies of judgment given alignable versus non-alignable differences, and classic results on anchoring and adjustment. It also builds on empirical findings on affect-driven probability neglect by Pachur, Hertwig, Suter, and others. 15/N
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
We posit that "some things are lost in translation" -- in other words, translation is somewhat crude rather than nuanced. We also suggest that translation is likely to be primary (or come first) and then risk accommodation is secondary. 14/N
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Unimodal choices only require risk accommodation. When considering a choice between a sure 1 unit and a 50-50 chance of 0 or 4, the gamble has an advantage (4 vs. 1) and a disadvantage (0 vs. 1). Crossmodal choices require this PLUS translation of apples and oranges. 13/N
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
What's driving this pattern? We model these choices with a simple model that builds in two psychological processes: risk accommodation and translation. 12/N
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
I won't go into the details, but there are other studies and analyses that rule out the role of noise (think, regression to the mean) and preference heterogeneity (think, a subset of people who like Purell and hate Scotch Tape and others who like Scotch Tape and hate Purell). 11/N
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
There are plenty of other studies in which we vary the parameters of the gamble or the probabilities. 10/N
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Here, we see what we mean when we say "risk matters less ..." -- the red bars (crossmodal preferences, Purell vs. Scotch Tape) are less sensitive to risk parameters (here, the attractiveness of the sure thing) than the blue bars (unimodal preferences, Purell vs. Purell). 9/N
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
We also manipulate the relative attractiveness of the gamble to the sure thing. For example, favorable involves 3 units for the sure thing compared to 0 or 4 for the gamble. Unfavorable involves 1 unit vs. 0 or 4. Here are choice percentages aggregated over different product combos. 8/N
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
We don't use apples and oranges in our studies, but household products like travel-sized Purell (P) vs. a roll of Scotch tape (S). We compare a sure thing (e.g., 3 Ps) and a gamble (say 0 or 4 Ps). We then look at all combinations of choices, P-P, P-S, S-P, S-S (Sure Thing-Gamble). 7/N
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Then the independence axiom implies that you should be indifferent between 1 apple for sure and a lottery that offers 0 or 3 oranges. This basic condition is violated. Risk matters less in apples-to-oranges comparisons than applies-to-apples comparisons. 6/N
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Suppose that you are indifferent between an orange and an apple and n oranges and n apples. Suppose also that you are indifferent between 1 apple for sure and a lottery that offers 0 or 3 apples (same for oranges). 5/N
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
We find that "risk matters less" when choices are "apples-to-oranges" than "apples-to-apples." More precisely, people are less sensitive to relevant parameters, such as quantity, quality, and probability. 4/N
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
This distinction was introduced by Cubbitt, McDonald, and @danielread.bsky.social (2018) in a study of time preference. pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1... They extended this to risk in 2023: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... 3/N
pubsonline.informs.org
Time Matters Less When Outcomes Differ: Unimodal vs. Cross-Modal Comparisons in Intertemporal Choice | Management Science
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
The paper compares risk preferences in "unimodal" settings (apples-to-apples; think the canonical monetary lottery paradigm) and "crossmodal" settings (apples-to-oranges; think a some sure cash versus a lottery over the duration of a vacation). 2/N
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
I'm delighted that our paper, "Risk Matters Less When Options Are Apples-to-Oranges: The Translate-and-Accommodate Model" (Evan Weingarten, Yuval Rottenstreich, and George Wu) has just been accepted at Psychological Review. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... 1/N
papers.ssrn.com
<p><span>Risk Matters Less When Options Are Apples-to-Oranges: </span><span>The Translate-and-Accommodate Model</span></p>
<div> <div> <div> <p><a rel="nofollow"><span>Risk aversion for moderate-likelihood gains is perhaps the best-known stylized fact from decision r
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Congrats to my colleague @erikakirgios.bsky.social!
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SK @sk-76.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
The old Illinois National Guard Armory, Chicago (1966) Photo: Richard Nickel / Art Institute of Chicago
Late 19th century military building designed with castle-like features. A huge advertisement for a Chevrolet car dealership is painted across its facade. Another side advertises roller hockey. The building faces an empty lot. A lone pedestrian walks across the desolate scene.
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
IL-02
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Hyde Park Trish @pmorse.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Help save the fabulous Chicago Stock Exchange Trading Room that the Art Institute of Chicago wants to demolish for a new building. Dedicated architects and philanthropists spent years and more than a million dollars to reconstruct it at the Art Institute. Sign the petition c.org/L5GJtwLRTM
c.org
Can you spare a minute to help this campaign?
STOP the Demolition of the Chicago Stock Exchange Trading Room!
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
This is one of my favorite places in Chicago. And I have a LOT of places that I love.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 14/02/2026
Utterly unacceptable in a democracy. In a sane world, House Republicans would be drafting impeachment articles today and Senate Republicans would be preparing for a trial to convict and remove him from office
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Emma Templeton @emmatempleton.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
I will be hiring a full-time pre-doctoral Research Professional to work with me at Chicago Booth. Know someone interested in studying conversation and connection? Please help spread the word! More details, including application instructions, are here: www.chicagobooth.edu/-/media/facu...
chicagobooth.edu
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Disgusting. www.reuters.com/world/us/whi...
reuters.com
Exclusive: White House uses USAID funds for budget director Vought's security, documents show
The White House budget office is using millions of dollars from the former U.S. foreign aid agency to pay for the security detail of Russell Vought, President Donald Trump's budget chief and an archit...
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 31/01/2026
For sure. The fraction of bot reviews surely differs between critics and "audience."
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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 31/01/2026
Right now, Melania has a Rotten Tomatoes “tomatometer” of 6% and a popcorn meter of 98%, a difference of 92%! The previous largest discrepancy is The Boondock Saints @65%. www.imdb.com/list/ls52428... #Melania #Melaniathemovie
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Kristen Radtke @kristenradtke.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
I wrote about my childhood friend Alexi Pretti. Please read it and share it and remember him as a human being. @theverge.com
theverge.com
I grew up with Alex Pretti
The kind-hearted ICU nurse shot by ICE agents was my childhood best friend.
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Billy Bragg @billybragg.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
I wrote this yesterday about the hero city of Minneapolis www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKOW...
youtube.com
BILLY BRAGG - CITY OF HEROES
YouTube video by Billy Bragg
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Marc Elias @marcelias.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
Bondi’s letter represents a major assault on Minnesota’s sovereignty, demanding that it forfeit its ability to make and enforce its own laws and maintain its voter rolls without oversight from the executive branch, which does not have authority over elections. www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/...
democracydocket.com
AG Bondi demands access to Minnesota voter rolls after fatal Border Patrol shooting
Her demand came as Minneapolis was reeling from a second fatal shooting by a federal agent this month.
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Mark Jacob @markjacob.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
Hundreds of people (and still growing) at this snowy, balmy (17 degrees) protest in downtown Chicago. We stand with Minnesota against ICE.
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derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
The Washington Post published a clear video of federal agents removing Alex Pretti's handgun moments before he was fatally shot. There's nothing in the video to suggest Pretti even reached for his weapon. wapo.st/49Zqv1L
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Ahmed Baba @ahmedbaba.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
So Kyle Rittenhouse, who attended a protest armed with a loaded assault rifle and killed 2 people is a right-wing hero. But Alex Pretti who had a holstered, permitted handgun, was recording ICE, and tried to help a pepper-sprayed woman deserved to die? No one is buying this BS.
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Kyle Cheney @kyledcheney.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
BREAKING: Judge Tostrud -- a Trump appointee — has quickly granted a restraining order, barring the administration from "destroying or altering evidence" taken from today's shooting. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
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Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
Alex Pretti wasn’t a part of “engineered chaos.” He was a nurse who cared about people. An individual. What is “engineered chaos” is what this admin is doing in blue cities to justify invocation of the insurrection act.
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