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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 7h

In the 20-22 #Tigray war, TDF also lost all major cities & faced a tougher encirclement by #Eritrea in the north & Fano/#ENDF in the south/west. It came back but Eritrea & drones were key in that war. Now Tigray is less united and Fano & Eritrea arent allied w ENDF. TDF shouldnt be underestimated.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 18h

Reports from #Tigray claim forces ambushed #Ethiopian troops and TPF militia in Kola Tembien, with another clash near #Adwa. Tigray’s guerrilla war has begun with ENDF supply lines stretched. Also an explosion reportedly targeted the UAE Embassy in Addis. Details are unverified.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

#Houthi missiles hitting #Saudi airports from 500 miles show their precision. Casualties hurt #MBS after billions spent on defense. Exempting Mecca and Medina while warning airlines projects the Houthis as protectors of Islam & are Irans way of pressurizing Trump into a deal.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

While Ethiopia’s fed government is at war with its own people, #Egypt is making another move: deploying elite Thunderbolt & airborne troops, mechanized infantry, armored vehicles and air assets to #Somalia. #Ethiopia risks strategic encirclement while fighting on multiple fronts

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

The US has documented #ENDF’s use of child soldiers, amid growing human rights concerns following a deadly strike on a secondary school in Tigray that caused casualties. Meanwhile, Ethiopian sources report an exchange of gunfire between #Ethiopian and #Eritrean forces in the Bure area.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

#Abiy acts as a UAE proxy arming & training Sudan’s genocidal RSF as it devastates Sudan, while bombing #Tigray, Amhara & Oromia and threatening #Eritrea’s ports. Now, reports point to stepped-up UAE military support for Addis amid plans for a Sudan invasion.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Europe imposed sanctions to choke off Russia’s war revenues. Then #Trump buckles and cuts a deal involving millions of tonnes of Russian #diesel to curb US fuel prices. Zelensky called it “WEAK & a gift to Russia.” #Moscow gains cash, leverage and a political win.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Turkey & Egypt outmaneuvered #Ethiopia in #Somalia, where the ENDF once led. Now civil war forces its retreat. Egypt has deals w Sudan, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, S. Sudan, Djibouti & #Eritrea. Ethiopia’s foreign policy has left it isolated leading the US to prioritize Kenya & Egypt.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

#Ethiopia’s F. Ministry seems less a strategic institution than a copy machine of Abiy’s words. Amid endless civil war, Ethiopia arms the #RSF, bombs SAF, threatens #Eritrea & Somalia w annexation, undermines Djibouti’s interests & pushes Nile dams despite Egypt’s concerns.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Prof Gebissa wouldnt be surprised if #Eritreans are ready to defend their country after Abiy’s threats. They were invited in by #Abiy & havent left. Abiy said they stayed in areas awarded to #Eritrea. Yet S. Sudan/Kenya invaded 🇪🇹 & Sudan seized alFashaga & Ethiopia never reacts.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

As TDF withdraws from Tigray in a controlled manner, AFS expands in #Amhara, disrupting key highways linking North Gondar–Gondar, North Wollo–South Gondar & #Kobo–Debre Birhan. With ENDF focused on #Tigray, security gaps are allowing AFS to push into towns long held by Fed gov.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Ethiopian forces claim advances across #Tigray, including #Shire, Abi Adi & #Wukro. Opposition AFS forces also claim a strike on Bishoftu killed 3 UAE drone experts (unverified). Explosions were reported in Addis Ababa overnight and this morning.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

#Eritrea’s existence is being threatened by Abiy & Eritrea’s military history matters. During the independence war, #Eritrean forces won hundreds of battles against an #Ethiopian army that vastly outnumbered & outgunned them, also w significant air power. After nearly 30 yrs of war, the EPLF won.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

#Ethiopia’s coalition is reportedly hitting military airfields, killing/wounding #drone operators & trainers. It’s striking the #ENDF hasn’t closed these gaps after earlier attacks. Targeting scarce personnel disrupts the drone pipeline, while airfield strikes blunt airpower.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

#Houthi attacks on #Saudi Arabia have triggered the #Mecca defense pact’s collective deterrence measures. Türkiye and Pakistan agreed to rapidly deploy forces to Saudi Arabia, while 100+ Saudi jets back Yemen’s counteroffensive, which has retaken the Bab el-Mandeb.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

As TDF retreated north towards #Adigrat, TDF & Fano opened new fronts across Tigray & Amhara, including May Tsebri & #Gondar & with results. ENDF suffered heavy losses advancing towards Wukro & Hagere Selam, prompting some ENDF forces to retreat from #Mekelle.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Ethiopian forces push north along the A2 but were stopped by tdf ~40 km north of #Mekelle as #Tigrayan forces hold positions around #Wukro. Airstrikes reportedly hit Adwa hotels and an IDP camp in Shire. AFS claims major gains in Amhara and Oromia, including Cho’bi.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Heavy strikes reported in #Tigray: drone/airstrikes hit sites in #Adwa as ENDF convoys move toward #Adigrat. AFS claims heavy casualties, including 90 government troops killed in Gondar. ENDF risking overstretched supply lines and exposure to drone attacks.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Fear is growing in #Kyiv that #Russia may increasingly target civilians and civilian infrastructure. The concern follows #Ukrainian intelligence warnings of a broader Russian strike doctrine, alongside recent attacks on schools, hospitals, bridges and energy infrastructure.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Egypt’s summit w #Eritrea, #Somalia and Sudan comes as Ethiopia’s #Tigray conflict intensifies. Talks are likely to focus on the risk of a wider Ethiopia–Eritrea war, Eritrea’s role, Red Sea security, Ethiopia’s regional ambitions and the conflict’s potential spillover into Sudan

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

#ENDF’s advance into #Tigray is facing difficulties as the #TPLF launches counterattacks, while infighting among pro-government forces including Amhara groups and the TPF adds pressure. Biggest risk for ENDF: becoming overstretched on multiple fronts and losing momentum.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

3rd U.S. #carrier headed toward Iran: USS Theodore Roosevelt, with 3 #destroyers. Its air wing includes F/A-18E/Fs, F-35Cs, EA-18Gs, E-2Ds, CMV-22Bs & MH-60s. The buildup could put 3 carriers + 2 amphibious groups near #Iran by late Nov.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

#Debt keeps piling up while the #bond market is sending a louder warning. US, Japan and #France are all seeing borrowing costs surge toward multi-decade highs. Higher yields mean higher interest bills and less room for governments to maneuver. The math is getting harder.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Explosions were reported at Ethiopia’s main Air Force base in #Bishoftu and near military chief Birhanu Jula’s residence in Addis Ababa. Ethiopian forces entered #Mekelle from the Afar side, while AFS forces cut the #Sekota–Lalibela road.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

In Washington, #Eritrean FM Osman Saleh met US Undersecretary for Political Affairs A. Hooker and Assistant Secretary for Africa F. Garcia. With #sanctions lifted, expect deeper talks on trade, investment and #RedSea cooperation, including mining, ports, energy and logistics.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

BREAKING: Reports of #diplomats, foreign investors, tourists and business leaders leaving #Addis are emerging amid growing security concerns. Multiple envoys have sought government briefings on incidents over the past three days w questions over the lack of clear official details.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Cameron Hudson admits he hasn’t seen evidence that #Eritrea, Sudan or Egypt provided substantial support to #Tigray. He believes the Eritreans & the Sudanese likely kept expensive hardware for themselves, while Egypt lacked the funds to substantially back #Sudan, let alone Tigray

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

TDF may be avoiding a decisive fight for #Mekelle, preserving its forces while allowing #ENDF to advance deeper. The gamble: stretch federal supply lines into #Tigray, harass exposed rear positions and strike once ENDF is overextended turning a rapid advance into a costly trap.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

#Ethiopia’s expulsion of #Eritrean diplomats, amid drone attacks on Addis and #Ethiopian Airlines avoiding Eritrean airspace, raises questions about Addis’ growing security concerns. It may also reflect the pressure to preserve Abiy’s image of stability and control to the outside.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

#ENDF closing in on #Mekelle, but the advance carries serious risks. With #Tigrayan forces ahead and Fano active on other fronts, a push too far could expose ENDF to encirclement. Abiy now faces a choice: press for Mekelle or consolidate before risking a major setback.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

#Egypt has declared an #Ethiopian embassy counsellor in Cairo persona non grata and given him 48 hours to leave, in a reciprocal move after #Ethiopia took the same measure against an Egyptian diplomat in Addis Ababa, according to an official Egyptian source.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

#Ethiopia is sharply escalating: closing its embassy in #Asmara and expelling 10 #Eritrean diplomats. After alleging Eritrean military involvement in Afar without evidence, Addis is now cutting diplomatic communication, steps that risk widening the conflict to Eritrea.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Drone strikes hit #Addis Abeba, ENDF headquarters in #TorHayloch and #Cherkos, a major escalation: opposition forces reaching the capital’s military command infra, exposing rear-area vulnerabilities, disrupting command security forces ENDF to widen its defensive perimeter.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

#ENDF relocates fighter jets as TDF Fano keep hitting airfields. ENDF advanced into #Tigray from two directions, taking Alamata & reaching Samrè. Afar’s regional gov held an emergency meeting as TPLF & allied forces rapidly advance across #Afar, urging residents to take up arms.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Opposition attacks on #Ethiopian airfields suggest rebel forces have gained experience w drones. Sudan’s long war may be one source of know-how. In 2020–22, #ENDF’s won mainly due to #Eritrean support and drones; fastforward Abiy alienated Eritrea & drones are not unique to ENDF.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Reports say strikes hit #Ethiopia’s #HararMeda/#Bishoftu air base, with opposition sources claiming 3 casualties. Exact targets inside the base are not yet confirmed. If confirmed, penetrating Ethiopia’s main airhub would raise serious questions about base security & air defenses.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

If opposition forces can strike #Dessie–#Kombolcha Airport w drones & rockets, the impact could be major: disrupting a key logistics hub, forcing #ENDF to widen its defensive perimeter and divert forces, while flight disruptions create wider psychological and economic pressure.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Let’s hope peace prevails in the Horn. That Abiy Ahmed stops destabilizing #Eritrea & #Somalia through his illegal annexation plans. That #Tigrayans, Oromos, Afars & Amharas live together in peace, and trade between Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia & Sudan can flourish.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

TDF holds high ground near #Alamata, while TDF–Ugugumo control Abala/Erebti & advance toward Afdera. Sekota remains under ENDF. Explosions reported at Bishoftu/Kombolcha & Flights to Dessie/Kombolcha canceled, while #Kombolcha, #Lalibela and 3 Tigray airports suspended operations.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

One of the biggest military risks for ENDF is exhaustion and overstretch. Sustained TPLF–Fano pressure around #Kobo, #Sekota and #Lalibela, plus new fronts elsewhere, could disperse forces, strain logistics, threaten key corridors and make coordinated defence harder.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Fano & #TPLF forces are attacking #Kobo in North Wollo. If the town falls, the alliance gains a strategic foothold on the A2 corridor, increases pressure toward #Woldia and forces the ENDF to defend another major axis while facing simultaneous pressure around Sekota and Lalibela.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

#TPLF–Fano are applying multi-axis pressure across Sekota (captured), North #Wollo, #Lalibela, Afar & Wolkayt, stretching ENDF across fronts. ENDF is responding with drones, defensive concentrations and counterattacks, seeking to contain the offensive and prevent a breakthrough.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

#TPLF & #Fano have reportedly captured #Sekota, a significant military development. It opens a deeper axis into Amhara, stretches federal forces, and could become more consequential if pressure also builds around Kobo, Lalibela and other fronts.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

US policy in the Horn seems to be erratic: backing Egypt on GERD, rebuilding ties w #Eritrea, backing #Ethiopia against Tigray for economic gains, while working against Sudan’s govt. Meanwhile, Eritrea, Egypt, Sudan, #Tigray & Amhara have excellent ties among themselves.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

#Danakali is hopeful that the expiration of US sanctions measures on #Eritrea could help its bid for an exploration license at the 1,500km² Ela Gedel project. The company says the change may ease compliance hurdles and improve access to foreign investors. #Asmara

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Fighting erupted after PM Abiy Ahmed’s gov initiated the Tigray war with periodic federal drone strikes and a blockade of #Tigray. The TPLF seized #Mekelle, Axum & Shire airports. #TPLF/Afar rebels likely seek to cut the Djibouti corridor & to encircle Woldia.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

#TPLF/Tigrayan forces have taken control of Tigray’s main airports, incl. #Mekelle, #Axum & Shire. Militarily, this gives them control of key air-access & logistics nodes, restricts federal movement & resupply & strengthens Tigray’s ability to defend amid federal drone strikes.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

The US remains hesitant to join #Saudi Arabia’s war against the #Houthis, wary that it could risk confrontation w Iran ahead of the #midterms. With US forces overstretched and ammo stocks strained, UK air-to-air support for Saudi Arabia is unlikely to change the war’s trajectory.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

#Iran’s latest conditions for ending the war: release frozen assets, lift the #blockade, stop US interference inside Iran & end the war across the whole region. The #Houthis remain a wild card, but there’s clear alignment w Iran, even as they pursue their own interests.

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Geopolitical updates @geopolupdates.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

#Iran says it has intel indicating the US is preparing a major attack, citing US movement of military aircraft from Europe to the Middle East, embassy warnings & increased tactical ops, incl. drones. #Tehran warns it will retaliate without limits against the US and #Gulf states.

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