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GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics

@geopolist.bsky.social
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Predicting the unpredictable!☯ Founded by newsaboutturkey.com, GEOPOLIST is your premier source for comprehensive analysis of global & regional geopolitical developments. Op-eds are welcomed. ➔ geopolist.com/submit-an-op-ed

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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
On February 28, 2022, we also outlined three possible consequences of sustained Western support for Ukraine. Our assessment today: Assad’s fall materialized; the weakening of Iran and China is only partly borne out; Russia’s internal fragmentation remains a process to watch.👇
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
In the first days of the war, we warned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could leave Assad exposed. His dependence on Moscow meant a prolonged war could divert the military resources sustaining his regime, creating an opening for renewed conflict in Syria.
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GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics @geopolist.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Erdoğan, seven years ago: 1- “Saudi Arabia should look in the mirror. Who brought Yemen to this state? What condition is Yemen in today? Haven’t tens of thousands of people died there? Saudi Arabia must first answer for this. Yemen is now living in poverty and deprivation....👇
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GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics @geopolist.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
On September 19, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Turkey was prepared to support Saudi Arabia under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement. Speaking to NTV, he said Ankara could help meet Saudi military needs, particularly in technical areas.👇
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
1- On the very day Yeni Parti was founded in July, we warned that the proliferation of “Yeni,” “Yeniden” and “Yenilik” party names could create voter confusion and weaken political identity. Now, reports say Yargıtay had also cautioned Yeni Parti that its name could face problems...👇
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
2-...because of its similarity to Yenilik Partisi.👇 serbestgorus.com/2026/09/iddi...
serbestgorus.com
İDDİA | Yargıtay uyardı, YENİ Parti’de isim değişikliği olabilir
YENİ Parti’nin adının, Yenilik Partisi ile benzerliği nedeniyle Yargıtay tarafından uyarıldığı öne sürüldü. Gazeteci Fatih Atik, parti yönetimine kuruluş
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GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics @geopolist.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
1-"...The most revealing response, however, came from Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif, who said on September 8 that if the Yemen conflict spilled over into Saudi Arabia, the collective-defense commitment under the Makkah agreement could come into operation.👇
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GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics @geopolist.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Yemen Could Become the First Test of the Turkey–Pakistan–Saudi Defense Pact geopolist.com/yemen-could-...
geopolist.com
Yemen Could Become the First Test of the Turkey–Pakistan–Saudi Defense Pact
The Houthi advance toward Bab el-Mandeb and renewed attacks on Saudi territory have created the first serious challenge for the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement. The question is not simply whether Turke...
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
1- "...At the same time, the political objective presented in the interview is not Kurdish separation from the Ottoman state. Instead, he envisages the intellectual advancement of Kurdistan contributing to a shared political homeland...
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
2-...The combination complicates attempts to fit the young Said Nursi neatly into either a later Turkish nationalist framework or a modern Kurdish separatist one..." 👇 1908 Said Nursi Interview Reveals a Vision of Constitutionalism, Kurdish Education, Religious Equality and a Shared Homeland
newsaboutturkey.com
1908 Said Nursi Interview Reveals a Vision of Constitutionalism, Kurdish Education, Religious Equality and a Shared Homeland
A French-language interview with Said Nursi published in 1908 sheds light on the Kurdish Islamic scholar’s early political thinking, showing him defending constitutional government, equality regardles...
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Nursi went further than simply accepting the Constitution as a political necessity. He presented constitutional equality as compatible with religion itself. Asked directly whether he accepted constitutional government, he answered: “It is recommended to us by our religion; therefore it is good.”👇
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
1- "...The creation of Özgür Özel’s Yeni Parti does not necessarily eliminate that space...not necessarily the answer to every voter located between Erdoğan’s bloc, Turkish nationalism, the traditional social-democratic electorate and Kurdish identity politics..."👇
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
2-"...And if that produces a second political pole around Demirtaş, the result may be more consequential than a simple division of Kurdish politics. Öcalan could emerge as the de facto leader of the post-PKK movement while simultaneously creating the conditions for Demirtaş to attempt, once again,..
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
3-..something larger: turning a political current born from the Kurdish question into a democratic movement competing for Turkey itself."
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
1908 Said Nursi Interview Reveals Support for Constitutionalism, Kurdish Education and Religious Equality newsaboutturkey.com/2026/09/07/1...
newsaboutturkey.com
1908 Said Nursi Interview Reveals Support for Constitutionalism, Kurdish Education and Religious Equality
A French-language interview with Said Nursi published in 1908 sheds light on the Kurdish Islamic scholar’s early political thinking, showing him defending constitutional government, equality regardles...
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Our Forecast Is Taking Shape: Öcalan Is Redefining Kurdish Politics — Could Demirtaş Transform Turkish Politics? newsaboutturkey.com/2026/09/07/o...
newsaboutturkey.com
Our Forecast Is Taking Shape: Öcalan Is Redefining Kurdish Politics — Could Demirtaş Transform Turkish Politics?
On May 20, News About Turkey (NAT) argued that the new Kurdish process unfolding in Turkey was about considerably more than ending the armed campaign of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
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GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics @geopolist.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Too Useful Against Iran to Disarm? The PJAK Exception 👇 geopolist.com/too-useful-a...
geopolist.com
Too Useful Against Iran to Disarm? The PJAK Exception
Since Abdullah Öcalan’s February 2025 call, the PKK has dissolved, Turkey has created a legal framework for disarmament and reintegration, and the SDF has surrendered its independent military existenc...
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GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics @geopolist.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
1-"...If another major confrontation with Iran arrives, PJAK could become far more important than it is today: a military nucleus for Iranian Kurdish opposition, a destination for selected experienced cadres from the former PKK and Syrian Kurdish military tradition, and potentially one component...👇
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
Eduardo Gray🇪🇺 @eduardogray.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Good article. I recommend.
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GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics @geopolist.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Too Useful Against Iran to Disarm? The PJAK Exception geopolist.com/too-useful-a...
geopolist.com
Too Useful Against Iran to Disarm? The PJAK Exception
Since Abdullah Öcalan’s February 2025 call, the PKK has dissolved, Turkey has created a legal framework for disarmament and reintegration, and the SDF has surrendered its independent military existenc...
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
a- "...Selçuk Bayraktar, Erdoğan’s son-in-law, has repeatedly been singled out by Ash as one of the most impressive figures in contemporary Turkey...Elsewhere, he called Bayraktar “Turkey’s Elon Musk” and predicted that he would be an exceptionally strong presidential candidate if he ever entered...
newsaboutturkey.com
Timothy Ash Predicted the Backlash — But Did His Erdoğan Remark Reveal More Than a Slip?
The British economist immediately withdrew Erdoğan’s name after invoking an era of “sociopathic leaders.” His subsequent explanation was that it was simply a slip of the tongue. But Ash’s long record ...
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
b-... electoral politics...again identified Bayraktar as a credible technocratic presidential successor... Then came another remarkable development. Only hours after the investigation became public, Ash announced that he had been informed that Turkish authorities had closed it..."
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Timothy Ash Predicted the Backlash — But Did His Erdoğan Remark Reveal More Than a Slip? newsaboutturkey.com/2026/08/28/t...
newsaboutturkey.com
Timothy Ash Predicted the Backlash — But Did His Erdoğan Remark Reveal More Than a Slip?
The British economist immediately withdrew Erdoğan’s name after invoking an era of “sociopathic leaders.” His subsequent explanation was that it was simply a slip of the tongue. But Ash’s long record ...
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GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics @geopolist.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
The Israeli propaganda machine is becoming almost comically self-contradictory. First, the Mecca pact was sold as a terrifying “Sunni axis” led by Turkey and backed by nuclear Pakistan. Now we are told that Shi'a Iran may join it.
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GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics @geopolist.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
a- On 20 December 2024, immediately after Assad’s fall, we argued that Israel would increasingly seek to portray Turkey as the successor threat to Iran in Syria. Now JINSA writes: “Israel has worried that al-Sharaa simply replaces the Iranian threat in Syria with a Turkish one.”
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GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics @geopolist.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
1-"...The reciprocal political utility became remarkably explicit on the eve of Abu al-Duhur. One day before the strike, Likud campaign material in Tel Aviv displayed Erdoğan alongside Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem and New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, with a...
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GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics @geopolist.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
1- "...Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani says Damascus had already informed Israel before the attack that there was no intention to establish a permanent Turkish base at Abu al-Duhur, no plan for a permanent Turkish troop presence and no plan to transfer control of the facility to Ankara...👇
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GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics @geopolist.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Netanyahu’s Perfect Assist from Abu al-Duhur: How Erdoğan Can Score on Kurdish Peace and National Discontent geopolist.com/netanyahus-p...
geopolist.com
Netanyahu’s Perfect Assist from Abu al-Duhur: How Erdoğan Can Score on Kurdish Peace and National Discontent
The Israeli attack on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase on August 18 initially presented itself as another episode in Israel’s widening campaign to preserve military freedom of action in post-Assad Syria. ...
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Turkey at a Crossroads: The End of Erdoğan’s Economic Contract and the Beginning of Dynastic Autocracy 👇 newsaboutturkey.com/2025/04/08/t...
newsaboutturkey.com
Turkey at a Crossroads: The End of Erdoğan’s Economic Contract and the Beginning of Dynastic Autocracy
One of the clearest signs that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has abandoned democratic accountability and embraced full autocracy is his quiet yet deliberate retreat from the economic populism that on...
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
1-"...Erdoğan no longer believes ordinary electoral dissatisfaction threatens his power in the same way it once did..., ... economic problems affect conservative voters as much as secular voters. Erdoğan cannot satisfy all of their economic demands. He cannot return the purchasing power destroyed...
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
2-....over several years, dramatically lower rents, increase every pension and wage to match expectations and simultaneously stabilize the economy..."
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
1-"...Erdoğan’s evolving relationship with religious constituencies cannot be separated from his experience with elections. The conventional democratic assumption is that a ruler facing dissatisfied conservative voters must negotiate with religious communities because every bloc of votes matters.👇
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News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
2-One reason may be that Turkey’s recent electoral history has taught him that elections can be controlled, distorted or effectively stolen in several different ways..."
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
1-"...The lead image above (below) almost speaks for itself. It shows Alparslan Kuytul being escorted by police and his wife, Semra Kuytul, being taken into custody by a female police officer who herself wears a headscarf. The symbolism is striking. During the February 28 era and the late 1990s,...👇
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
2-...Turkey repeatedly saw images of secular-looking female police officers, university officials and other female representatives of the state confronting, harassing, detaining or physically removing headscarved conservative women in the name of the secular order. Today, the image is almost...
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
3-...the reverse: a headscarved female police officer is now the representative of state power taking another headscarved conservative woman into custody..."
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Is February 28 Returning Under an Islamist President? newsaboutturkey.com/2026/08/19/i...
newsaboutturkey.com
Is February 28 Returning Under an Islamist President?
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan rose to power promising to liberate Turkey’s religious conservatives from state tutelage. More than two decades later, the destruction of the Gülen movement, the operations agains...
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
1- Erdoğan’s mother, Tenzile, was buried beside Süleyman Hilmi Tunahan—the tomb seen in the photo—founder of the Süleymancı tradition, reportedly in accordance with her own wish. Erdoğan later had his father’s remains moved there so that his parents would rest together beside Tunahan, despite his
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News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
2- problematic relationship with his father. Erdoğan himself may ultimately have expected to be buried in the same family plot, next to his parents and therefore beside Tunahan. Yet today his government is turning against Tunahan’s religious community and determined to break its institutional power.
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GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics @geopolist.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
1- "Then came a development that is central to understanding everything that followed: on July 22, the U.S. State Department formally told Congress that Turkey still had not met the legal conditions necessary to receive the F-35. Less than two weeks later, on August 3, the State Department notified
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
farce majeure @hongpong.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Turkey is offering to unload a very large set of older American made weapons to Ukraine, but the F-35 and Russian S-400 are complicating matters
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GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics @geopolist.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Erdoğan Arms Ukraine as Putin Complicates Turkey’s F-35 Comeback geopolist.com/erdogan-arms...
geopolist.com
Erdoğan Arms Ukraine as Putin Complicates Turkey’s F-35 Comeback
Turkey’s proposed transfer of American missiles, rocket launchers and massive ammunition stocks to Ukraine would be important under almost any circumstances. What makes it particularly significant is ...
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
8-"...Süleymancılar had spent years distancing themselves from Erdoğan. Before the 2023 presidential election, nearly all Süleymancı interlocutors expected the community to support Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu instead of Erdoğan. A former member interviewed after the election likewise said they had voted for
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
9-...and expected the community to continue supporting whoever appeared strongest against the AKP. The relationship also extended to Ekrem İmamoğlu. In 2024, reporting on religious communities and the Istanbul contest noted that Süleymancı circles were supporting İmamoğlu precisely because their...
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
10-...relationship with Erdoğan had long been poor. Immediately before the March 2024 municipal vote, a Süleymancı-linked platform publicly backed İmamoğlu in Istanbul and Mansur Yavaş in Ankara while declaring that it would not support the AKP..." newsaboutturkey.com/2026/08/15/f...
newsaboutturkey.com
First Gülenists, Then Furkan, Now Süleymancılar: The Selective Democracy and Political Betrayal of Turkey’s Secular Opposition
Turkey’s secular opposition has never had more reason to understand the dangers of a politicized judiciary than it does today. Since late 2024, the Republican People’s Party has been subjected to what...
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
6-"...Halk TV, one of the broadcasters most closely associated with the secular opposition audience, quickly filled its Süleymancılar coverage with sensational headlines. Readers encountered stories describing the Kuriş family as “real-estate kings,” reports saying Süleymancılar were caught...
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
7-.....destroying “sack after sack” of documents, reports of an alleged “arsenal,” secret compartments, large financial networks and renewed comparisons with “FETÖ”.
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
1- "...The central problem facing both the restored CHP under Kılıçdaroğlu and Özel’s supposedly new political movement is not that they criticize Erdoğan too strongly. It is that the democratic principles they invoke against Erdoğan too often appear strongest when they themselves are the targets.👇
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News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
2- When the state turns against people who come from outside the traditional secular opposition universe—particularly independent Islamic movements—the same instinctive demand for evidence, proportionality, individual responsibility and presumption of innocence frequently becomes weaker..."
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Reposted by GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for Geopolitics
News About Turkey-NAT @newsaboutturkey.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
First Gülenists, Then Furkan, Now Süleymancılar: The Selective Democracy and Political Betrayal of Turkey’s Secular Opposition newsaboutturkey.com/2026/08/15/f...
newsaboutturkey.com
First Gülenists, Then Furkan, Now Süleymancılar: The Selective Democracy and Political Betrayal of Turkey’s Secular Opposition
Turkey’s secular opposition has spent the past several years presenting itself as the principal victim of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s authoritarian system and, consequently, as the country’s stro...
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