iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Estimated 2026 military spending as a percentage of GDP, with NATO figures updated for today's summit.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

A simple visualization of the line of control in Ukraine since April 2022.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

I really wish I had this type of animation skill when I made this video three years ago! www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zx3...

youtube.com

Why Every NATO Member Joined (And Why Everyone Else Hasn't)

YouTube video by William Spaniel

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

I made a very simple animation showing NATO's enlargement over the years. Enjoy!

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

How I would solve the red button/blue button problem, featuring multiple Nash equilibria given various assumptions and how I would solve the societal problem as dictator of the world. www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVeI...

youtube.com

Red Button, Blue Button? A Game Theorist Solves the Viral Dilemma

YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

Why do we call them the Korean War and the Vietnam War? Why not the Korea War and the Vietnamese War? Or better yet, why not have a consistent naming convention?

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 29/03/2026

Maybe once it actually arrives and we have a better idea of why the White House cleared it.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 29/03/2026

It's a Lines on Maps Extra day, with the latest video in my Introduction to International Relations series. Today's topic: alliances, their evolution over time, and how to overcome some of their fundamental credibility problems. www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_pw...

youtube.com

How Alliances Work: Historical Trends, The Abandonment-Entrapment Tradeoff, and Creating Credibility

YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

Day 26 in a row in the books. Today is a deep dive on the Iran War, its domino effects, and some of our usual silliness. Oh, I also go off the rails talking about the United States and Iran allegedly having different perceptions on the repetition of the interaction. www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPCh...

youtube.com

The Causes of the Iran War, How It Will End, Post-War U.S. Problems

YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

I have reached the point of my career where I am trying to find out the latest regarding the Russian oil tanker heading to Iran, and Google ultimately points me to myself.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

On Lines on Maps Extra today for some Q&A about the Iran War (and sleep, and video games, and recipes). www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYfX...

youtube.com

Iran War Q&A: Hormuz Failures, World War III, Boots on the Ground, and Arab Interventions

YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 08/03/2026

In “Take Me Out to the Holosuite,” the Vulcan literally says “war is inefficient.” It’s like the writers were reading the contemporaneous crisis bargaining literature.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

Also, it is important to remember that this is Operation Epic Fury, not Operation Epic *Furry*.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

Before you read the hundreds of articles about how pizza predicted the war, please watch this video from a few days ago. It did not. Video later today about what has happened so far. www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3kr...

youtube.com

Can Pizza Predict the Start of the Iran War?

YouTube video by William Spaniel

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

Here's the most interesting part of the Supreme Court tariff ruling I have read thus far. The context is whether Congress hid the power to tariff within the power to regulate:

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

Paused on this frame of a video I am working on. It seems like Rubio's face is reacting to having just read what's on screen. 😅

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

Ever feel like you walked into lines on maps halfway through and never fully understood what was going on? Well, here is 105 minutes of Crisis Bargaining Theory 101. www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjKV...

youtube.com

What Causes Wars: An Introduction to Crisis Bargaining Theory

YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

Nuclear war has started---and ended. Your government has just been destroyed. But you still control 16 nuclear-tipped missiles. What's your next step? How about listening to my interview with a professor at the Army War College on the subject? www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1I8...

youtube.com

World War III Just Ended. You Lost. You Have 16 Nuclear-Tipped Missiles. What Do You Do?

YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 24/01/2026

I have completely revamped my IRL introduction to international relations class. Today, I published the first lecture out of the batch! I will publish a new one every Saturday for the next three months. They will be exclusive to my secondary channel. www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8ZY...

youtube.com

How to Think Like a Geopolitics Analyst

YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

If you woke up this morning thinking "I'd really like to see William Spaniel wreck a $2000 military drone," then goodness do I have the right video for you. www.youtube.com/watch?v=54hk...

youtube.com

The Hidden Reason the West Needs to Send Ukraine More Drones *Now*

YouTube video by William Spaniel

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

Ten days after the Fracas in Caracas, we take a look at what happened, and how Venezuela's military relationship with Russia left some major gaps in the former's defenses. www.youtube.com/watch?v=fu9t...

youtube.com

Why Russia Failed to Help Venezuela: Ukraine, Hardware, and Attrition

YouTube video by William Spaniel

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

At one point, Trump went around the room, citing everyone's current spending figures. The best one: “Slovenia: less than one percent. I’m not surprised. I know my wife, I know what she spends money on.”

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

Warning: contains dramatic reenactment of the 2018 NATO Summit, which gives some insight on the origin of Donald Trump's apparent animosity toward Denmark. www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bHH...

youtube.com

“Weapons Grade Stupid”? The U.S. Plan for Greenland

YouTube video by William Spaniel

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 10/01/2026

Last month, I attended a NATO cyber security exercise in Estonia. They showed me basically nothing. But that was by design, and highlights a broader point about why states run military exercises. www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwZx...

youtube.com

I Went to a NATO Exercise. They Showed Me Nothing. That Was the Point.

YouTube video by William Spaniel

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

Fallout from the capture of two tankers today, plus some analysis on what is happening with the oil blockade in Venezuela. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kd9y...

youtube.com

The U.S. Just Seized a Russian Flagged Tanker—Because It Can, and Moscow Can’t Stop It

YouTube video by William Spaniel

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

Let's hope that the security guarantees work better than Macron's pen.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 06/01/2026

Strategies like what the Trump Administration is doing in Venezuela rarely work. Why do countries keep trying despite that? The answer may have to do with a line or two. And perhaps a map as well. (Or a generic bar of goodies.) www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWmk...

youtube.com

Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Rarely Works. Why Do Countries Keep Trying?

YouTube video by William Spaniel

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 05/01/2026

The Trump Administration has not articulated a clear plan, but the lack of a plan is the plan. And what can the new Venezuelan president do to counter it? www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK91...

youtube.com

What Is Trump’s Strategy, and How Will the New Venezuelan President Counter It?

YouTube video by William Spaniel

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 05/01/2026

First images of Delcy Rodriguez being sworn in. Working on a video right now about what her strategy is going forward.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

With the initial shock of Maduro’s capture subsiding, today I look at what it does to the rest of the world at war. youtu.be/e4SVt3B0UE8

youtu.be

How Maduro’s Capture Upends the World at War

YouTube video by William Spaniel

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 03/01/2026

Even with Maduro captured, today is day one of a much longer process—lest the United States fall into the Iraq trap. youtu.be/0EKqt_jXbPM

youtu.be

The United States Has Captured Maduro. What Happens Next?

YouTube video by William Spaniel

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 03/01/2026

I did. I just got into the habit of checking the news whenever I would wake up in the middle of the night over the last week. Post Christmas/New Years was the sensible timing for the operation.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 03/01/2026

Yep, already working on getting something out shortly.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 02/01/2026

Apropos of nothing, Saddam Hussein (leader of an oil rich country) arrested a bunch of foreign nationals right before the Gulf War. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign...

en.wikipedia.org

Foreign nationals held by Iraq during the 1990–1991 Gulf crisis - Wikipedia

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

Also, here is your opportunity to hear me not be able to read “supercavitating” correctly a single time. But I promise the video is supercaptivating!

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

Spain believes that Russia was trying to build two nuclear reactors for North Korean submarines. They are now sitting at the bottom of the Mediterranean. Who did it? youtu.be/Br9KlA4oWOE

youtu.be

Who Secretly Destroyed Two Russian Nuclear Reactors?

YouTube video by William Spaniel

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

Discussion of the two key provisions inside of the U.S.-Ukraine plan, plus the political maneuvering here given that Russia will not accept its terms. www.youtube.com/watch?v=zamA...

youtube.com

How Zelensky Successfully Deflected the Disastrous U.S.-Russia Peace Proposal

YouTube video by William Spaniel

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

So we are basically back to where we were in October. Kyiv can take a deep breath that US arms will not disappear overnight. But the mismatch between the proposed substantive settlement and military balance remains.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

“5. The U.S., NATO, and European signatory states will provide Ukraine with “Article 5–like" guarantees.” If Russia believed that these would be enforced, then there is reason for Russia to agree to (14). But Russia does not believe this, so the whole thing falls apart.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

Without anything else here, Russia will see no reason to sign the agreement. The frontline is still slowly shifting west, at a cost the Kremlin finds acceptable. By itself, point 14 explicitly incentivizes Russia to continue. But there is something else…

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

Points (14) and (5) are the critical ones. “14. In Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, the line of military positions on the date of signing will be recognized as the de facto front line.” Still weird to use the term “recognized de facto”…

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

Zelensky has revealed the 20 point peace plan negotiated between the United States and Ukraine. I do not think it will work, but Zelensky has successfully deflected the peace plan Russia leaked weeks ago. kyivindependent.com/zelensky-rev...

kyivindependent.com

Zelensky reveals full 20-point peace plan draft backed by Ukraine, US

After weeks of talks, Ukraine and the U.S. have prepared a draft of the revised peace plan to end Russia’s full-scale war. The initial 28-point plan, which effectively pushed Ukraine toward capitulat...

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