gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 2mWe have 2 CSGs back in the ME. I wonder if Trump may escalate or hit the houthis this weekend. Or if Iran will escalate. This is basically the last chance for them to before the midterms 000
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 1hOnly beaten by Nixon who resigned! It took Bush another couple months to fall below this level 010
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 11hThis +4 poll assumes really high Black vs White turnout, not seen since 2012. Also a pretty decent shift left for white voters. Usually cross-tabs for race are just noise but for Mississippi we get so little it's cool to see what's in there. 010
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 12hIt's 100% seat 58. Zero chance it flips before Florida or SC 130
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 13hShe got around 65% of them in 2018. Colom will need persuasion 140
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 16hThis is the crux of this election. What if they don't show lol 151
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 16hSuper possible. This poll was polled in Spanish too. Jolly needs an environment of Trump +7 or lower and Nixon needs at least Trump +6 or lower. It all depends on who shows up 020
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 16hHmm something happening in the middle east/Iran? Evac orders just went out for Iranian bases 000
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 20hKevin Kiley is actually about to get 10 million votes 130
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 21hI know the rule of "if you're explaining you're losing" is generally true but why even talk about this. It sounds as bad as "When missing child posters go up, Ken paxton takes them down" 11576
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 22hI really hope they're off like in 2025. I want pollsters to start having to model what they think the environment is going to be. Every pollster is either weighting to 2024 or 2022. It's why all the results are looking the same. 120
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 23hTalarico really is tanking for the party. $250-300 million dollars down the drain for a candidate that is irredeemable 020
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 23hNice generic Dem lady vs Rakshasas the destroyer, enemy of all that is good ass race 090
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 23hI would love to see this district be incredibly blue on election night. Mostly because it reports first so I can set my expectations accordingly 😂 010
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 14/10/2026Crazy sample too, 49R-41D-11I. I'm just going to assume they had indies say which party they leaned towards 120
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 14/10/2026Con ET is trying to convince itself that Georgia turnout was actually amazing for Republicans yesterday 150
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 14/10/2026It's almost like Trump has made everything worse and more expensive through horrific policies that have derailed what would otherwise be an economic boom. But no, it's the people who are wrong for feeling economically worse off lol 010
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 14/10/2026Basically every poll is seeing Indy persuasion with some R defections. If you add a blue electorate you get a tsunami. I'm not surprised pollsters are hedging but I wish one or two wouldn't 😅 050
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 14/10/2026Honestly maybe. I'm still confused why they decided to go back to Texas. It's only been three weeks, poll somewhere else lol 110
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 14/10/2026The sample went from R+6 in September to R+14 in October (R+11 for RV). I'd just call it noise, unless the electorate is expected to be redder 100
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 14/10/2026Talarico is costing them a quarter billion alone. Without Jackson collins would be cruising to a 2014 reelection margin 0140
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 14/10/2026Looking back pre-2016 we used to have so many pollsters and polls. RIP 210
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 13/10/2026Is there any way to get a combined Gender/Race/Age breakdown from the SoS site? 000
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 13/10/202650% R, 17% I, 33% D It's not straightforward, but this is the screen they're applying 030
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 13/10/2026What is their sample weight because lol, lmao 130
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 13/10/2026Yeah that doesn't look like a triage that just looks like normal reallocations 010
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 13/10/2026Is HMP still spending on AZ02? It looks like they are but not sure if I'm reading that wrong 110
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 13/10/2026These are coming directly from the Saudi announcement. It's used in their wording 100
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 13/10/2026Ah you're actually right, he explains it lower down. He also asks the same question 100
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 13/10/2026It's Dems who have voted in every previous election. They're way more likely to answer polls, even compared to normal. I don't know exactly what's being implied here. Either that Dems are underestimated because weighting is holding back their enthusiasm or overestimated because they answer polls 120
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 13/10/2026Also isn't EV still looking pretty blue? Even compared to 2025 which was already good for us? 120
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 13/10/2026This is my theory as well. Early voters are typically older partisans who always vote. Especially in midterms, early vote swinging against you is bad. But EDay for republicans is the low propensity voters. Good luck getting them to show up! 120
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 13/10/2026 Could you imagine the Arkansas Senate polls are real lmao 010
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 13/10/2026This might be one of the worst ads I've ever seen. You're running against 2020 Susan Collins! If voters want bipartisanship they'll vote for her! 1220
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 12/10/2026Embarrassment or because they like lying to pollsters. In past cycles it's usually because people say they voted for the winner. It's a small percentage (1-2%) but it could be significant enough for a polling error in our favor this cycle 010
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 12/10/2026This isn't super simple so I apologize for the worst explanation, but this is what I believe is happening 😅 110
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 12/10/2026When polls weight to 2024 recall, a person lying about voting for Harris when they voted for Trump skews the poll towards Republicans because they either hide persuasion (R -> D) or because they secretly increase the number of Trump voters in your poll (Fake D voting for R) 210
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 12/10/2026Trump +7 recall for likely voters (+12 is RV). I actually think that's right on the money for Dems to be tied in Florida. they probably win with Trump +6 or lower recall 030
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 12/10/2026Alaska is cheap at least and Dan is less of a comic book villain than other GOP candidates 120
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 12/10/2026I think that's technically in the Portland media market, but I'm not sure how digital plays into that 120
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 12/10/2026I feel like Italy isn't that bad internationally because Meloni is relatively pro Ukraine. A lot of these far right parties are Russian puppet parties. 120
gaelium.bsky.social @gaelium.bsky.social · 12/10/2026It's not worth your time lol, but this is just egregious 110
