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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)

@fritzell.bsky.social
649 followers 155 following 186 posts

Website: www.asiancenturystocks.com

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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
Japan's cloud accounting software industry is 6-10 years behind the United States and Australia. That means there's plenty of catch-up growth ahead. In my write-up on software developer freee, I note that it expects its corporate client base to eventually triple.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
"Explain in simple terms how Carabao makes money" ChatGPT 5 Thinking vs Gemini 3 Pro Thinking. Which answer do you prefer?
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
Logizard's (4391 JP) 1QFY2026 result was poor with revevenue growth of only +2.7% YoY and net profit -40%. We knew margins would contract due to aggressive hiring, but new projects lagged. Cloud +8.0% YoY. However, FY2026 rev guidance still +12% YoY. Will prob buy on weakness.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
If you want to read the full post, you can find it here (free): www.asiancenturystocks.com/the-ultimate...
asiancenturystocks.com
The ultimate AI tool battle
The best tools for equity research
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Conclusion? Pay for ChatGPT if you want the best answers. If speed is important to you, or if you're a heavy user who likes short replies, go with Gemini.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
10. Q&A preparation I asked each of the tools to provide 15 questions to ask management. Gemini's questions were specific and relevant. ChatGPT's questions were okay, too. Claude's and Grok's were almost unusable.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
9. Finding red flags Claude and Gemini provided depth in the answer, discussing impairment charges, goodwill, related party transactions and loans, a lack of geographic disclosures and more. Excellent. ChatGPT's answer was not impressive in the least.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
8. Challenging prediction ChatGPT's forward EPS estimates were clearly superior, correctly identifying the positive impact from the new Myanmar and Cambodia factories in the next six months. Grok's forecast was thoroughly unimpressive.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
7. Comps table Loved the comparables table provided by ChatGPT. The numbers were correct and included Osotspa. Claude and Grok's market cap numbers were wrong.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
6. Summarize earnings results I really like Gemini's short and sweet summary of Carabao's 1H2025 result. ChatGPT's answer was decent, too, though wordy. Claude's answer was all over the place with zero structure.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
5. News update Somehow, Gemini outperformed in terms of summarizing recent news. It noted that Carabao recently signed a partnership with Tsingtao Brewery, which could open up the Chinese market for it. Claude's answer included forward projections, for some strange reason.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
4. Competitive advantages Amazing answer from ChatGPT, helping you understand why young Thais like Carabao better than Osotspa's M-150. Also talks about the rock music heritage, the Carabao Cup sponsorship and the strong distribution network.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
3. Supply chain analysis Strong answers across the board, with Grok shining, including details about JVs and related party deals. Gemini's answer was strong but a bit short.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
2. Deep research report Deep Research reports from ChatGPT take a long time to generate. But they are superior to the rest. Gemini's are okay, too. Grok's report was terrible. Carabao is taking market share, but border issues, sugar tax and cost inflation hurting margins.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
1. Business snapshot ChatGPT does the best job at explaining what the company does in simple terms. Claude/Grok are both vague with a limited amount of information. Carabao is an energy drinks company with 25% in Thailand, and also presence in Cambodia/Vietnam.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
I used these ten questions to analyze Thai energy drinks company Carabao (CBG TB – US$1.2 billion). The stock is down 50%, partly due to the Cambodia land-border issue and now trades at 11x EV/EBIT. The founder and CEO has now started buying.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
I then gave each of them ten prompts: 1. Business snapshot 2. Deep research report 3. Supply chain analysis 4. Competitive advantages 5. News update 6. Summarize earnings results 7. Comps table 8. Challenging prediction 9. Finding red flags 10. Q&A preparation
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
I set up paid subscriptions of: - ChatGPT Plus - Gemini Pro - Claude Pro - SuperGrok ... to understand which is better for equity research
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Which generative AI tool should you pay for (if any)? Let's figure it out.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
This year's write-ups on Asian Century Stocks. If you're interested in any of them, join! asiancenturystocks.com/library/
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
You can find the full post here (free to view): www.asiancenturystocks.com/alternative-...
asiancenturystocks.com
Alternative data for dummies
Estimated reading time: 18 minutes
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
7. Data AI App rankings, costly but you can get 90 day history data.ai
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
6. StockX Provides price data for second-hand goods eg sneakers and other collectibles stockx.com
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
5. Camelcamelcamel for Amazon price trends I use it to track either new or second-hand prices for the most popular versions of the product. You used to be able to access product rankings, but I think this feature has been discontinued. camelcamelcamel.com
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
4. Social Blade for social media stats I usually track monthly gained followers for Instagram/YouTube/TikTok accounts. Ideally for accounts with millions of followers. socialblade.com
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
3. Toolforge for Wikipedia data Find the Wikipedia page first and then search under Pages. Use en.wikipedia.org for English Wikipedia pages. I use it to track the popularity of individual products. pageviews.wmcloud.org?project=en.w...
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
2. TickerTrends for website traffic: Has gone up in price but still cheaper than Similarweb. Especially helpful for China stocks where Google isn't used (you need local phone numbers for Chinese equivalent services). TickerTrends also has TikTok views. tickertrends.io
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
1. Google Trends, measuing the # of Google search queries. I use seasonally adjusted numbers to get a sense of year-over-year trends. The numbers since July 2025 seem somewhat fishy. But still helpful for fashion/software. trends.google.com/trends/explo...
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
Alt-data sources I use, ranked in order of importance and using Pop Mart as an example:
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
Dan Rupp at Parkway Capital: - Time in the market > timing the market (stay long) - Has reallocated from China/HK to Thailand/Indonesia - Bull case for Asia is a weak USD - Sells when 1) original thesis wrong 2) better oppty 3) full valuation www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUr5...
youtube.com
Dan Rupp: The Contrarian's Guide to Asian Markets, Lessons from HK's Worst Day Since Tiananmen&More
YouTube video by Bogumil Baranowski (Talking Billions Podcast)
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
The Asian markets ranking the highest on insider buy/sell ratio: 1. Malaysia 2. Thailand 3. Philippines 4. Hong Kong 5. South Korea 6. India 7. Vietnam 8. China Southeast Asia is clearly where the value is at…
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
John Templeton's 22 investing maxims
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
1. Avoid cash hoarders 2. Avoid shrinking-demand product 3. Avoid commodity products 4. Avoid complex corporate structures 5. Avoid aggressive accounting 6. Avoid cyclicals at peak margins 7. Avoid highly indebted companies 8. Avoid government interference www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/how-to-avo...
asiancenturystocks.com
How to avoid value traps in Asia
8 rules for better performance. Estimated reading time: 18 minutes
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
The answer is no. The only mention is here: on.substack.com/p/now-anyone...
on.substack.com
Now anyone can pay for a Substack subscription in iOS
We’re enabling in-app purchases—and introducing tools to protect your revenue, relationships, and control
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
Link: www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/interview-...
asiancenturystocks.com
Interview with Myles Kuah
Private investor and blogger. Estimated reading time: 7 minutes
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
A fun interview with Myles Kuah, the winner of this year’s Australian Survivor (free to read)
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/guide-to-c...
asiancenturystocks.com
Guide to corporate governance
Estimated reading time: 16 minutes
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
I just published a guide to corporate governance. It will be helpful for both new and experienced investors, I think, regardless of whether you’re investing in Asia or not. It’s free to read, so if you like it, share it with your friends.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
You can find the link to the interview here (free): www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/interview-...
asiancenturystocks.com
Interview with Michael McGaughy
From Research Alpha. Estimated reading time: 14 minutes
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
Here's a great interview with Michael McGaughy from Research Alpha. He discusses Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Argentina and more.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
The book is more approachable than Michael Porter's own books, which are excellent but dense and hard-to-read. Totally worth reading. www.amazon.com/Understandin...
amazon.com
Understanding Michael Porter: The Essential Guide to Competition and Strategy
Amazon.com: Understanding Michael Porter: The Essential Guide to Competition and Strategy: 9781422160596: Magretta, Joan: Books
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
The worst mistake a company can make is to not have a strategy at all. Or trying to compete "to be the best". Or trying to grow for the sake of it. It's better to find a niche and extending it rather than removing any differentiation.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Porter also offers five tests of a good strategy. Having a distinctive value proposition, a tailored value chain, trade-offs that are different from rivals, interconnectedness throughout the value chain and continuity over time.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Each value proposition is best delivered by a tailored value chain. In the car rental business, Hertz focus on travelers away from home has an impact on where it places its stores (airports, hotels), its fleet choices and its advertising.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
To form a strategy, figure out: 1. The value proposition to customers, with the goal to be unique - not "the best" 2. Choose a set of activities within the value chain that are best aligned with the value proposition Stick to the strategy so that the organizatin becomes aligned.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Instead, by making unique choices throughout the value chain, you'll build up a moat. Because there are strategic trade-offs. For example, British Airways can move to Ryanair's airports, but then it would not be able to offer the convenience its customers are used to.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Companies can outcompete others in any of the activities within the value chain. Porter calls this "operational effectiveness". But it's not a competitive advantage, as best practices can easily be copied.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Porter thinks competitive advantages arise from hundreds of activities in a value chain. Compare this value chain to that of competitors, to understand how they go about their business differently in terms of price or cost.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
The other important part of Porter's work deals with competitive advantages. Success is best measured through ROIC. You can achieve success through 1. A higher relative price through differentiation 2. A lower relative cost by becoming more efficient The spread is what matters.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @fritzell.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Other factors have an impact on the five forces, changing bargaining power dynamics over time: - Government regulation - Technological shifts - Underlying industry growth - Complements
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