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Freya Olsson, PhD @freyaolsson.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

During the evaluation period (2023), submitted forecast models were most useful when in-lake conditions were most different to historical observations. As conditions continue to move beyond what can be predicted from past observations, these forecasting methods will be more and more valuable! 📈

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Freya Olsson, PhD @freyaolsson.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

Skillful forecasts were generated using four model classes - process models, machine learning, empirical, and multi-model ensembles.

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Freya Olsson, PhD @freyaolsson.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

35-40% of models outperformed null models and the most successful models accounted for more sources of uncertainty (process, parameter, initial conditions, observational, drivers) with poor models often over-confident in their forecasts.

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Freya Olsson, PhD @freyaolsson.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

Using >100,000 near-term ecological forecasts, produced in real-time as part of the @ecoforecast.bsky.social NEON Forecasting Challenge, we looked at how different forecasting models performed for different lake variables and sites!

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Reposted by Freya Olsson, PhD

Abby Lewis @aslewis.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

So exciting to see @freyaolsson.bsky.social's forecast synthesis paper officially published today! "What can we learn from 100,000 freshwater forecasts? A synthesis from the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge" doi.org/10.1002/eap....

doi.org

What can we learn from 100,000 freshwater forecasts? A synthesis from the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge

Near-term, iterative ecological forecasts can be used to help understand and proactively manage ecosystems. To date, more forecasts have been developed for aquatic ecosystems than other ecosystems wo...

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Reposted by Freya Olsson, PhD

Ecological Forecasting Initiative @ecoforecast.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

Upcoming January 22 deadline! Submit abstracts, workshop proposals, working group activities, and travel scholarships for the Ecological Forecasting Initiative 2025 Conference. We want you to join us! See details at bit.ly/efi2025

bit.ly

Ecological Forecasting Initiative 2025 Conference, May 19th

This 4-day in-person international Ecological Forecasting Initiative (EFI) Conference meeting will bring together participants from academia, government agencies, industry, and the non-profit sectors ...

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Freya Olsson, PhD @freyaolsson.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

The tutorial can be expanded from the original 90-minute version to include materials on workflow automation⏲️▶️and forecast evaluation 🏅❌! Come and try #EcologicalForecasting!

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Freya Olsson, PhD @freyaolsson.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

Are you interested in trying to forecast ecological variables?🔮 Or want to teach some key forecasting concepts? Our #open-source, R-based, tutorial materials are available via GitHub, along with a short paper at #jose jose.theoj.org/papers/10.21... @careylab.bsky.social @cboettig.bsky.social

Water temperature forecast showing multiple potential future conditions (forecast uncertainty)

Lake Barco NEON buoy collecting real-time data

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Reposted by Freya Olsson, PhD

UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) @ukceh.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

Our #podcast review takes us to Windermere where our team boarded the research vessel John Lund and unwrapped 79 years of Cumbrian lakes monitoring 🛥️ 🎧 buff.ly/3P5bykq #12DaysOfChristmas #CountingTheEarth🌍

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