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Francisca Ladouch

@franladouch.bsky.social
31 followers 18 following 58 posts

analyst at @Joseph Rowntree Foundation Posting about poverty, benefits and labour market in the UK. Views my own.

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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
That’s a recovery worth celebrating for now, but it could stall quickly if inflation stops easing. So, overall: the labour market is showing more signs of weakness in employment and hiring, while real pay is improving. The next few months will tell us whether these shifts persist.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Wages are the bright spot... for now? Real pay growth continues to improve, which is welcome news after a difficult period for living standards. But there’s an important caveat: the improvement is almost entirely being driven by falling inflation, rather than bigger nominal pay rises.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Closing those regional gaps has to be central to any serious push towards an 80% employment rate. We shouldn’t celebrate hitting an 80% national average while leaving whole regions this far behind.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
The employment rate deserves a closer look. The national employment rate masks a much bigger story: huge regional differences. Some regions have employment rates above 80%, while others are nearly 10 percentage points behind. For a government with a strong devolution agenda, that gap matters
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Weakness is starting to show up in hiring, not just in the number of people looking for work. Vacancies are still falling too, although the pace of decline over the past year has slowed compared with the previous three years. That’s an important shift to watch.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Employment is now down 0.2pp on the year, while economic inactivity has flatlined at 20.9%, unchanged both on the quarter and the year. Unemployment is at 4.9%, up 0.2pp on the year, although slightly lower than last quarter. The key point: the story is changing.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
1/ What are the latest ONS labour market stats? The UK labour market is showing shifting signals in April–June 2026. Rising unemployment earlier this year was mainly driven by more people returning to the labour force. Now, the weakness is starting to show up in employment. Read the thread 👇🧵
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
We're hoping this report contributes to the debate about what a fairer and more secure system of work should look like. We'd love to hear your thoughts. ▶️Link here: www.jrf.org.uk/work/insecur...
jrf.org.uk
Insecure shift: why millions of workers don’t have protections they need
The UK's uneven system of sickness and care protections leaves workers exposed to insecurity, and incentivises a shift towards less protected types of work.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
6/ Recent reforms through ERA are a welcome and important step forward, and will improve working life for millions of people. But the job is far from finished. Without further action, there is a real risk that economic insecurity will deepen for many workers in the years ahead.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
5/ Finally, the current system creates incentives for employers to shift risk onto workers through less protected forms of work, further deepening insecurity.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
4/ Third, millions of workers are excluded from key protections altogether simply because of their employment status. The support you receive when life happens should not depend on the type of contract you happen to have.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
3/ Second, statutory sick pay and parental pay have failed to keep pace with wages over time, meaning that the financial protection these systems provide has steadily eroded.
Line chart that shows the real growth of National Living Wage, Average Weekly Earnings, Statutory Sick Pay, Maternity Allowance and Paternity Pay since 2014/15.  
In the chart we can see that National Living Wage has grown over the period, especially after 2022/23 at a faster pace that Average weekly earnings, which has also increased over the period, especially after 2022/23. 
On the contrary, Statutory sick pay, Maternity Allowance and Paternity pay has remained mostly flat over the period and have fallen behind real growth relative to Average weekly earnings and National Living Wage.
Line chart that shows the replacement rate (in percentage) of Statutory Sick Pay, Maternity Allowance and Statutory Paternity Allowance relative to National Living Wage and Average Weekly Earnings from 2014/15 until 2025/26.
The chart shows a decrease in the replacement rates for all the in-work benefits throughout the period, with Statutory Maternity/Paternity Pay relative to national living wage falling the furthest, replacing 61% in 2014/15 to only 44% in 2025/26. Statutory sick pay used to replaced 38% of a worker on the National Living Wage in 2014/15 and in 2025/26 it just replaces 28%.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
2/ First, millions of workers face substantial income losses when they become ill or take time out to care for a new child or family member. Getting sick or caring for loved ones should not mean facing financial hardship.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
1/ ❓What happens when you get sick or have a baby? For millions in the UK, these life events can quickly lead to financial insecurity. Today, my colleague @meriahlberg.bsky.social and I are publishing a new @jrf-uk.bsky.social report on the UK's in-work protections. 🧵
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
But.. there's still some key things to keep and eye on: - whether inactivity resumes its downward trend - whether unemployment continues to drift up - and whether the recent real wage improvement is sustained.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
The one clear bright spot: wages. Real wage growth has picked up again, driven by: the largest monthly increase in nominal pay since Dec 2024 falling inflation between March and April 2026.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Vacancies continue to fall. They are down 31,000 (-4.2%) on the year, and are now at their lowest level since early 2021. This suggests ongoing softening in labour demand.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Inactivity is telling a more nuanced story. The inactivity rate is 21.0%, up slightly on the quarter but still down 0.3pp on the year. So over 12 months, more people have returned to the labour market, but that momentum has weakened since the start of 2026.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Employment essentially unchanged and unemployment higher The employment rate for 16–64 year olds sits at 75.0% (Feb–Apr 2026), flat on both the quarter and the year. Unemployment is edging higher over the year. The headline rate is 4.9%, up 0.3pp year-on-year but down slightly on the quarter.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
1/ What’s the latest ONS labour market data telling us? The UK labour market shows a mixed picture: broadly flat employment, slightly rising unemployment vs a year ago, falling vacancies, but a recent improvement in real wage growth. For a summary of the stats, read the thread!
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
These trends are placing additional pressure on living standards that were already under strain. Households are facing rising energy costs, a labour market that is struggling to absorb workers, and wage growth that is no longer keeping pace with prices.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
A weaker labour market, combined with rising inflation, has caused real wages to fall. Real wages have shown no growth for the past 18th months, since September 2024 and have been declining since October 2025, with a negligible fall on the most recent single month (March 2026).
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Vacancies are falling again after a short plateau and remain well below 2022 levels. Labour market is looser: ~2.5 unemployed people per vacancy.Including those inactive but wanting work: ~6 people per vacancy.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
UK labour market continues to loosen. Jan-Mar 2026 vs a year earlier: • Unemployment +0.5pp • Employment +0.1pp • Inactivity -0.5pp Overall: employment broadly flat, but unemployment trend still edging up since late 2024.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
The UK labour market continues to loosen and @ONS today's figures confirm the trend. Read the thread for more info 🧵
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
More people are entering the labour market. The system Fewer vacancies. More competition...Rising long-term unemployment. What needs to change to ensure the labour market both absorbs rising jobseekers and creates well-paid, secure jobs that support living standards?
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
#YouthUnemployment is at its worst in five years and long-term joblessness is rising fast. 14.5% unemployment, ages 18–24 +6.1pp 18–24s unemployed 12+ months. The longer people stay unemployed, the harder it becomes to re-enter work, with lasting effects on earnings and living standards
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Meanwhile, vacancies are down 9.5% year-on-year (−76,000 jobs). There are now 2.6 jobseekers per vacancy, up from 1.9 last year. Include inactive people who want work and that rises to 5.4 per vacancy.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
A near 6-point gap between regions. 7.9% London unemployment 2.2% Northern Ireland. The North East saw the sharpest rise, up 2.4pp in a year. Wales was the only region to record a fall. #RegionalInequality
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Unemployment has risen to 5.2%, up 0.8pp year-on-year. This is the highest rate since the pandemic peak of 5.3%. Employment has stayed broadly flat at 60.7%, but inactivity has fallen — meaning more people are entering the labour market, and not finding work. #Unemployment
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
UK Labour Market Unemployment is at its highest since the pandemic and the numbers are getting harder to ignore. Latest ONS data shows a clear and concerning trend. A thread. 🧵
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
🔎 Find out more in the ‘'Work and Poverty’ chapter of #UKPoverty2026, starting on page 100. www.jrf.org.uk/uk-poverty-2...
jrf.org.uk
UK Poverty 2026: The essential guide to understanding poverty in the UK
This report sets out the nature of poverty in the UK, and evaluates changes under the last Conservative-led Government. It also sets out the scale of action necessary for the current Government to del...
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
“Work is the best route out of poverty.”...That’s the promise, but for millions in the UK, it’s broken. 📉 In-work poverty has risen from 2.5m workers in 2000/01 to 3.8m in 2023/24 (12%). Work matters, but without secure jobs, fair pay and a real safety net, it’s not enough.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
8/ The big picture Rising unemployment, falling vacancies, low earnings growth and persistent inflation The labour market is under real strain and no longer shielding people from poverty. We need joined-up action: government + employers removing structural barriers and creating paths back to work.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
7/ But jobs are disappearing. Vacancies (Oct 2025) fell 100 k (-12%) on the year and remain 90 k (-11%) below pre-pandemic. and.. 📉 Payroll employment also falling. -0.1% (-32 k) quarterly, -0.6% (-180 k) year-on-year.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
6/ Reasons for inactivity are shifting. Those inactive due to long-term sickness rose 1.1pp this year and 7.3pp vs pre-pandemic. Inactivity due to education fell 1.3pp. Encouragingly, the share of inactive people wanting a job is up 2.5pp (over 180k people).
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
5/ Inactivity is stable overall, but still high. Flat this quarter, down 0.7 pp on the year, yet still 0.1 pp above pre-pandemic. With fewer inactive 16–24s, but more 35–49s.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
4/ And the labour market remains weak Employment (16–64) fell 0.2 pp in Jul–Sept 2025. Year-on-year it’s up slightly (+0.1 pp) but still 1 pp below pre-pandemic. 📈 Unemployment is rising. Up 0.3 pp on the quarter and 0.7 pp on the year, now 1.1 pp above pre-pandemic.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
3/ Why this matters? Weak pay hits low-income households hardest. Inflation is still above target. Food & housing prices are rising faster than most others. With little real pay growth, families are struggling to keep up.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
2/ 📉 Real earnings have grown slower since Sept 2024. From Sept 2023–24, real earnings grew 2.4% (£11.70). A year later: just 0.4% (£2.10). That’s a big year-on-year deceleration- a trend we’ve been warning about for months, now reflected in the published data.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
1/ 🧵 The latest UK labour market data is out and it paints a worrying picture. Slow growth for real wages, job vacancies are shrinking, and unemployment is creeping up. Here’s a quick breakdown of what’s happening 👇
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Reposted by Francisca Ladouch
Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
📒 Government published Sir Charlie Mayfield's ‘Keep Britain Working’ report today. An ambitious framework for how employers can support workers in ill-health. Focus must be here to shift the dial on employment of disabled people & benefit spend, not cutting people's benefits. 🧵
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
So, what’s needed? ✅ More genuinely inclusive roles ✅ Better regional distribution of accessible jobs ✅ Government and employers working together to create conditions where disabled people cannot just find work but thrive in it.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
The shortage of suitable jobs pushes disabled people into precarious work, often self-employed or part-time, with lower pay and weaker protections. This is not just a labour market issue but an inclusion one. Barriers at every stage for willing disabled workers reflect policy and design failures.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Geography matters too. Access to “Disability Confident” jobs is far from equal: - Industrial legacy: 1:354 (1 job per 354 UC-H claimants ) - Industrial retirement: 1:242 - Affluent commuter belt: 1:47 - Remote rural areas: 1:72 - Affluent towns: 1: 73 - Semi-rural Britain: 1:77
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
A useful lens is the Disability Confident Employer Scheme. There’s a stark mismatch between disabled jobseekers and available roles. In 2024/25, for every “Disability Confident” role advertised, 100 people received health-related Universal Credit (UC-H). www.jrf.org.uk/social-secur...
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Behind these numbers lies a deeper story about opportunity. The share of economically inactive disabled people who want a job has risen from 20.6% in 2023/24 to 21.7% in 2024/25, and remains above non-disabled levels, showing that many disabled people want to work, but the jobs aren’t there.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Meanwhile, the employment gap between disabled and non-disabled people has widened, up 1.1 percentage points in the past year. That’s the largest increase since COVID hit, driven mainly by a stronger rise in employment for non-disabled people (+0.9pp).
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
After steady gains post-pandemic, the disability employment rate has slipped slightly, from 53.1% in 2024 to 52.8% in 2025 (-0.2pp). This reverses years of slow growth from a drop in the disabled employment rate after the pandemic.
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Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
The latest DWP data (Apr–Jun 2025) reveals an early warning sign: the number of disabled people in work may be starting to fall, the first year-on-year drop in over a decade (though not yet statistically significant). . Here’s what the data tells us and why it matters 👇
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